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Turned $100 into $1500 in MLB for my GF.. We broke up - Now for you. Picks below!
- Thread starter Rojo9
- Start date
CaptJay thanks bud. I like to give my insight for feedback it always helps. It was tough for me to value Boston higher. The juice was there so I didn't want to get too risky. Toronto has been playing well too. Always learning. It looks like there may be a couple more games to play that meet my criteria. Feedback on write ups that you disagree with are helpful as well. Very surprised to see Lynn getting smashed in a big game at home in STL. They haven't been good enough in my eyes for -143 ML. I do not like to look at the board on days like today where all picks aren't out at once however my friend is a big cards fan and I had to give him sh$t, as it doesn't happen too often.
Thanks man in the mirror. Your PC system must heavily weigh recent pitching history along with home away splits. Without getting too much into the numbers gallardo has been a much better pitcher then Elias as of recent however Seattle is outscoring Texas like crazy the last few games, 37-16 I believe... It seems to me Texas is playing as they have been all year, as of late- like a non playoff team due to the way they are hitting and Seattle is playing like I believe they should have been playing this year, like a playoff team in my opinion. The rangers are more desperate and both have won 7/10 however Seattle has won 5 straight 3 of which they were underdogs. Both teams have covered there last 4 games as favorites and this line is pretty even however Texas is now playing the roll as an even dog. A lot are on Texas in this game how ever Seattle is now -110. Seattle does not have a great home record and they do not play well as home favorites. That tells me the big money is on Seattle due to the "sharp" line movement. Taking all into consideration I can not give you a great opinion or one that you will want to hear based on your computer system. My play would be on Seattle and may be as I have at least one more game to post, just waiting for feedback to see if it hits my criteria needed to play. I certainly like to follow the sharp money. And one more thing to add, Seattle home and away splits do not carry as much weight for me in this matchup because they are playing like a better team across the board right now. Seattle is also a much better team in the division, which says a lot. Texas has a better road record then home record. I can see the type of numbers your computer system runs but I do not necessary agree with it. Maybe seattles confidence since they have been playing better will allow them to show there home fans what to expect next year. I hope this helps. Watch for the rest of my plays to come out shortly if you would like to see if I comitt to a side here. This was w no play for me off the bat but that is changing. I do not want you to change the way you pick games based on this information as you should always stick to your strategy and not steer away from it. Whether you win or lose, staying consistent to your strategy snd discipline is what will give you a ROI in the long run...I really hope this can help you in some way as it helped me. Stick to your guns. Let me know if any other questions. Take care, Rojo.
Thanks man, I've been doing this a very longtime (Aug 1986) and have been running the program since July 2011, so I won't be changing anything. I did enjoy hearing your thoughts on this game and I do wish you the best. My program has texas winning this game 64% of the time, with a positive Value rating of (+28.00) which was the best on my board today. All the best to you.
MITM
MITM
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961)]Playoffs record
Regular Season: 4-4
Units: +3 units
Bank: $375
[/COLOR][COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961)]
[/COLOR][COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961)]Wash -1.5 +100.......................1 U
NYY -1.5 +135.........................2 UBoston +113............................1 U
CHIW -1.5 +116....................1.5 U
Houston -1.5 +110................1.5 U
Houston -141........................2.5 U
Seattle -113..............................3 U
KC -1.5 105...........................1.5 U
LAD -1.5 +105..........................2 U
3 unit play reasoning below. I will always give reasoning for a play of 3 units or higher. Everything here hast been posted prior and is for purposes of cleaning up the thread. Each day all my picks will be in one thread. Today was out of the ordinary for a few reasons, however no excuses. 16 units were in play for purposes of establishing myself on the site.. On average you will see 6-9.
[/COLOR]
Without getting too much into the numbers gallardo has been a much better pitcher then Elias as of recent however Seattle is outscoring Texas like crazy the last few games, 37-16 I believe... It seems to me Texas is playing as they have been all year, as of late- like a non playoff team due to the way they are hitting and Seattle is playing like I believe they should have been playing this year, like a playoff team in my opinion. The rangers are more desperate and both have won 7/10 however Seattle has won 5 straight 3 of which they were underdogs. Both teams have covered there last 4 games as favorites and this line is pretty even however Texas is now playing the roll as an even dog. A lot are on Texas in this game how ever Seattle is now -110. Seattle does not have a great home record and they do not play well as home favorites. That tells me the big money is on Seattle due to the "sharp" line movement. Taking all into consideration I can not give you a great opinion or one that you will want to hear based on your computer system. My play would be on Seattle and may be as I have at least one more game to post, just waiting for feedback to see if it hits my criteria needed to play. I certainly like to follow the sharp money. And one more thing to add, Seattle home and away splits do not carry as much weight for me in this matchup because they are playing like a better team across the board right now. Seattle is also a much better team in the division, which says a lot. Texas has a better road record then home record. I can see the type of numbers your computer system runs but I do not necessary agree with it. Maybe seattles confidence since they have been playing better will allow them to show there home fans what to expect next year. I hope this helps. Watch for the rest of my plays to come out shortly if you would like to see if I comitt to a side here. This was w no play for me off the bat but that is changing. I do not want you to change the way you pick games based on this information as you should always stick to your strategy and not steer away from it. Whether you win or lose, staying consistent to your strategy snd discipline is what will give you a ROI in the long run...I really hope this can help you in some way as it helped me. Stick to your guns. Let me know if any other questions. Take care, Rojo.
Regular Season: 4-4
Units: +3 units
Bank: $375
[/COLOR][COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961)]
[/COLOR][COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961)]Wash -1.5 +100.......................1 U
NYY -1.5 +135.........................2 UBoston +113............................1 U
CHIW -1.5 +116....................1.5 U
Houston -1.5 +110................1.5 U
Houston -141........................2.5 U
Seattle -113..............................3 U
KC -1.5 105...........................1.5 U
LAD -1.5 +105..........................2 U
3 unit play reasoning below. I will always give reasoning for a play of 3 units or higher. Everything here hast been posted prior and is for purposes of cleaning up the thread. Each day all my picks will be in one thread. Today was out of the ordinary for a few reasons, however no excuses. 16 units were in play for purposes of establishing myself on the site.. On average you will see 6-9.
[/COLOR]
Without getting too much into the numbers gallardo has been a much better pitcher then Elias as of recent however Seattle is outscoring Texas like crazy the last few games, 37-16 I believe... It seems to me Texas is playing as they have been all year, as of late- like a non playoff team due to the way they are hitting and Seattle is playing like I believe they should have been playing this year, like a playoff team in my opinion. The rangers are more desperate and both have won 7/10 however Seattle has won 5 straight 3 of which they were underdogs. Both teams have covered there last 4 games as favorites and this line is pretty even however Texas is now playing the roll as an even dog. A lot are on Texas in this game how ever Seattle is now -110. Seattle does not have a great home record and they do not play well as home favorites. That tells me the big money is on Seattle due to the "sharp" line movement. Taking all into consideration I can not give you a great opinion or one that you will want to hear based on your computer system. My play would be on Seattle and may be as I have at least one more game to post, just waiting for feedback to see if it hits my criteria needed to play. I certainly like to follow the sharp money. And one more thing to add, Seattle home and away splits do not carry as much weight for me in this matchup because they are playing like a better team across the board right now. Seattle is also a much better team in the division, which says a lot. Texas has a better road record then home record. I can see the type of numbers your computer system runs but I do not necessary agree with it. Maybe seattles confidence since they have been playing better will allow them to show there home fans what to expect next year. I hope this helps. Watch for the rest of my plays to come out shortly if you would like to see if I comitt to a side here. This was w no play for me off the bat but that is changing. I do not want you to change the way you pick games based on this information as you should always stick to your strategy and not steer away from it. Whether you win or lose, staying consistent to your strategy snd discipline is what will give you a ROI in the long run...I really hope this can help you in some way as it helped me. Stick to your guns. Let me know if any other questions. Take care, Rojo.
Capt. Jay thanks, you're always positive with your feedback. Had a rough go with the rest today. Got away from what I do best and didn't keep it simple. Slow and steady as I go. Each day is a battle and not a war. My goal is to win the war through WS. One day of playing without discipline set me back, but nothing I don't feel I can overcom.
9/7 3-6, -3 units ($273.50)
Playoffs:
Regular Season: 7-10
Units: -3 units
Bank: -$275.50
Goal is to keep it smart until the WS. Let this be a lesson learned on Labor Day- I must stay discipline, true and consistent and will do so. On to
a new day. I hope to see you follow my picks to see how I do it the right way. Steady as you go- like the great George Straight says.
Playoffs:
Regular Season: 7-10
Units: -3 units
Bank: -$275.50
Goal is to keep it smart until the WS. Let this be a lesson learned on Labor Day- I must stay discipline, true and consistent and will do so. On to
a new day. I hope to see you follow my picks to see how I do it the right way. Steady as you go- like the great George Straight says.
Capt. Jay thanks, you're always positive with your feedback. Had a rough go with the rest today. Got away from what I do best and didn't keep it simple. Slow and steady as I go. Each day is a battle and not a war. My goal is to win the war through WS. One day of playing without discipline set me back, but nothing I don't feel I can overcom.
mitm i like it. I am at work. i am posting a write up for that game in particular as soon as I check the line again. I had a picked out last night for a few reasons as you will see. They are my team so I follow them a bit closer but am unbiased when capping them. I truly think they will take the division. Check my write up in about 5 minutes. I do not understand the -1 line? Could you explain that... They get the push if they only win by 1 so it's more like a security play right? If you're on board with the yanks I think you wlll like what I have to say in my write up.
9/7 3-6, -3 units ($273.50)
Playoffs:
Regular Season: 7-10
Units: -3 units
Bank: -$275.50
Goal is to keep it smart until the WS. Let this be a lesson learned on Labor Day- I must stay discipline, true and consistent and will do so. On to
a new day. I hope to see you follow my picks to see how I do it the right way. Steady as you go- like the great George Straight says.
Todays plays:
NYM +112....................1.5 U
NYY -1.5 +120.................2 U
Mil -120.......................2.5 U
LAD -1.5 -120..................2 U
and a bonus
Brewers -1.5 +140/Over 7.5, 2 team paray...............1 Unit
9 units in play tonight, back to the basics.
1.5-Unit Play. Take New York Mets (+112) over Washington Nationals(7p.m., Tuesday Sept. 8th)
NYM +111 over Washington- though some of the numbers point to washington in this game, I believe they are showing there true colors as of late. Washington has proved to be a good team, but not much better than that when crunch time comes. Bryce Harper was dogging the crowd for leaving yesterday. As the team leader, I believe that speaks volumes about their locker room in a very important matchup today. I believe the Mets locker room is really gelling, similar to Toronto as this is the first time in a little while they are sniffing the playoffs and even a shot at the WS. The nats let one get away from the Mets yesterday and I think the Mets will thrive off that, as they have thrived off mojo similar to that all year. Like I said most of the numbers might point towards the Mets however the Mets are 5-1 H2H hold the division lead and have a much better record in the division 38-20 vs 33-22. I believe those are the most important numbers as the Mets not only better H2H but clearly better against similar oppenents. I think that goes a long way this time of the year when divisional games are at higher stakes. One last note, but by far not the least important. Matt Harvey who was the center of some controversy on innings pitched, holds a 1.71 era in his last 26.1. Harvey retracted, that tells me he is ready to be a big gamer, and not let Scott Boris speak every word he says. Sure he is concerned about his arm and future, but ultimately I think he will be out to prove a lot of people wrong about his toughness and throw a gem agaisnt the nats today. The mets have one of the best RP in the game in Tyler Clippard who may be Harvey's best friend right now. I beleive the oddsmakers have this number right based on the simple numbers, but wrong based on the numbers that count. The mets were -102 last night, and moved to +112 today with the majority consenus siding with the mets at about 57%. That may show a sharp trend on the nationals but the right money should be on the Mets tonight. They have too many things going their way and the nights have to many things going the wrong way. The nats blew a great chance to get back in the division last night, and the mets took advantage as they will do so today as well.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee Brewers (-120) over Miami Marlins(7p.m., Tuesday Sept. 8th)
and 1 Unit 2-Team Parlay Brewers +140/Over total 7.5 runs -105 (1 unit pays 3.69 units)
I am not big on playing total runs, however the brewers are scoring and have eclipsed 7.5 runs in 9 of their last 10 games.
Milwaukee -120 maybe I am missing something here but they should be favored by much more in this game. They have the much better pitcher on the hill, the better bats outscoring Miami 20-5 in there last 3, the better team overall winnign 8 of there last 10 and the brewers play much better against the east than miami does against the central-The brewers are 17-14 playing those same opponents the marlins play all year and the marlins are 11-19 against similar oppenents as the brewers. The brewers fell victim to the best division in baseball and miami should as well tonight. The brewers are favored likewise, but they are not favored nearly enough. This is value that needs to be taken advanatge of in more ways than 1. The brewers should not only win but they should win by at least 2 runs as they did in there streak of winning 9 out of there last 10.
**Solid length write up for the yankees game today. I do write ups for the purposes of not only backing up a play that is 3 units or higher but also for the feedback. I am posting my first game of the day with a write up since it is a 2.5 unit ML.
2-Unit Play. Take NY Yankees (-1.5, +120) over Baltimore Orioles(7p.m., Tuesday Sept. 8th)
The yanks have been playing great lately. They did good work to a tough Boston team and have kept it going against Baltimore. As hot as Toronto is and as much talk they have been getting, the Yankees are only .5 games back. Yes only .5 a game back! It is hard to believe for some as the media does a great job of hyping up this Toronto team and downplaying a different Yankees. It’s almost as if these teams switched rolls, however the Yankees are still the Yankees and still wear pinstripes. I believe they will take the division from Toronto. I think they will prove to be the more consistent team come 26 games from now or so. However here is my take on this game specifically.
The Yankees have played better baseball all year and are playing better baseball right now. They are 8-2 last 10, vs Baltimore 2-8. They have a solid record as home favorites vs Baltimore bad record as road dogs which seems pretty normal...The yanks are 5-1 h2h in this series, winning the last 5 straight with Tanaka on the 9-3 winning end of one of those. The yanks have covered all but 1 game they have been favs in their last 10 games and Baltimore has only covered 1 as dogs in that same time span. Baltimore was priced at +247 in one of those as their juiciest price besides +158 in another game. They lost those pretty convincingly. The yanks have outscored Baltimore in recent history. In my opinion, dogs around +150 and lower cover at a decent rate or can keep games close. Baltimore is well below that % in recent history. I think Tanaka is getting into his best form this time of the year as he knows the games mean more and this is his first time experiencing that in the MLB. Gausman has been anything but promising on a team that has anything but promising after a terrific year last year. I believe he could have lost a spot in the rotation on a better team. With all that said, the Yankees are used to playing well this time of the year and I think that does mean something as they have a certain vibe in their locker room. These teams are going in opposite directions. I think they will keep the bats going improve their record to get closer to the jays, possibly taking the division lead. It is my strong belief they will take a 6-1 season series lead vs Baltimore in convincing style after all is said and done tonight. The Yankees should look good in those pinstripes and take this game handily so take that juice and run with it.
2-Unit Play. Take LA Dodgers (-1.5, -105) over LA Angels(10:05 p.m. Tuesday Sept. 8th)
Simple-Clayton Kershaw in rare form!
The dodgers are producing runs as of late winning 8 of their last 10 vs Angels 4 of there last 6. The Angels lsot a tough one last night due to more struggles with the bats. Gee I couldn't think of a pitcher more to face with batting struggles! This may be a typical lmediocre scoring west coast affair but I am expecting something along the lines of 4-1 dodgers at worst. Be smart take the clearly better team, with the clearly better pitcher that is hungry going into the playoffs. We all saw Kershaw get fired up in the dugout a few weeks ago proving why he won MVP last year. The dodgers have turned it around for there leader since then. I expect the run support to be there,
Get the value in these games ASAP while it's still too good, nice and early. The early bird catches the worm!
Now on to tomorrow!
</SPAN>
</SPAN>
Playoffs:
Regular Season: 7-10
Units: -3 units
Bank: -$275.50
Goal is to keep it smart until the WS. Let this be a lesson learned on Labor Day- I must stay discipline, true and consistent and will do so. On to
a new day. I hope to see you follow my picks to see how I do it the right way. Steady as you go- like the great George Straight says.
Todays plays:
NYM +112....................1.5 U
NYY -1.5 +120.................2 U
Mil -120.......................2.5 U
LAD -1.5 -120..................2 U
and a bonus
Brewers -1.5 +140/Over 7.5, 2 team paray...............1 Unit
9 units in play tonight, back to the basics.
1.5-Unit Play. Take New York Mets (+112) over Washington Nationals(7p.m., Tuesday Sept. 8th)
NYM +111 over Washington- though some of the numbers point to washington in this game, I believe they are showing there true colors as of late. Washington has proved to be a good team, but not much better than that when crunch time comes. Bryce Harper was dogging the crowd for leaving yesterday. As the team leader, I believe that speaks volumes about their locker room in a very important matchup today. I believe the Mets locker room is really gelling, similar to Toronto as this is the first time in a little while they are sniffing the playoffs and even a shot at the WS. The nats let one get away from the Mets yesterday and I think the Mets will thrive off that, as they have thrived off mojo similar to that all year. Like I said most of the numbers might point towards the Mets however the Mets are 5-1 H2H hold the division lead and have a much better record in the division 38-20 vs 33-22. I believe those are the most important numbers as the Mets not only better H2H but clearly better against similar oppenents. I think that goes a long way this time of the year when divisional games are at higher stakes. One last note, but by far not the least important. Matt Harvey who was the center of some controversy on innings pitched, holds a 1.71 era in his last 26.1. Harvey retracted, that tells me he is ready to be a big gamer, and not let Scott Boris speak every word he says. Sure he is concerned about his arm and future, but ultimately I think he will be out to prove a lot of people wrong about his toughness and throw a gem agaisnt the nats today. The mets have one of the best RP in the game in Tyler Clippard who may be Harvey's best friend right now. I beleive the oddsmakers have this number right based on the simple numbers, but wrong based on the numbers that count. The mets were -102 last night, and moved to +112 today with the majority consenus siding with the mets at about 57%. That may show a sharp trend on the nationals but the right money should be on the Mets tonight. They have too many things going their way and the nights have to many things going the wrong way. The nats blew a great chance to get back in the division last night, and the mets took advantage as they will do so today as well.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee Brewers (-120) over Miami Marlins(7p.m., Tuesday Sept. 8th)
and 1 Unit 2-Team Parlay Brewers +140/Over total 7.5 runs -105 (1 unit pays 3.69 units)
I am not big on playing total runs, however the brewers are scoring and have eclipsed 7.5 runs in 9 of their last 10 games.
Milwaukee -120 maybe I am missing something here but they should be favored by much more in this game. They have the much better pitcher on the hill, the better bats outscoring Miami 20-5 in there last 3, the better team overall winnign 8 of there last 10 and the brewers play much better against the east than miami does against the central-The brewers are 17-14 playing those same opponents the marlins play all year and the marlins are 11-19 against similar oppenents as the brewers. The brewers fell victim to the best division in baseball and miami should as well tonight. The brewers are favored likewise, but they are not favored nearly enough. This is value that needs to be taken advanatge of in more ways than 1. The brewers should not only win but they should win by at least 2 runs as they did in there streak of winning 9 out of there last 10.
**Solid length write up for the yankees game today. I do write ups for the purposes of not only backing up a play that is 3 units or higher but also for the feedback. I am posting my first game of the day with a write up since it is a 2.5 unit ML.
2-Unit Play. Take NY Yankees (-1.5, +120) over Baltimore Orioles(7p.m., Tuesday Sept. 8th)
The yanks have been playing great lately. They did good work to a tough Boston team and have kept it going against Baltimore. As hot as Toronto is and as much talk they have been getting, the Yankees are only .5 games back. Yes only .5 a game back! It is hard to believe for some as the media does a great job of hyping up this Toronto team and downplaying a different Yankees. It’s almost as if these teams switched rolls, however the Yankees are still the Yankees and still wear pinstripes. I believe they will take the division from Toronto. I think they will prove to be the more consistent team come 26 games from now or so. However here is my take on this game specifically.
The Yankees have played better baseball all year and are playing better baseball right now. They are 8-2 last 10, vs Baltimore 2-8. They have a solid record as home favorites vs Baltimore bad record as road dogs which seems pretty normal...The yanks are 5-1 h2h in this series, winning the last 5 straight with Tanaka on the 9-3 winning end of one of those. The yanks have covered all but 1 game they have been favs in their last 10 games and Baltimore has only covered 1 as dogs in that same time span. Baltimore was priced at +247 in one of those as their juiciest price besides +158 in another game. They lost those pretty convincingly. The yanks have outscored Baltimore in recent history. In my opinion, dogs around +150 and lower cover at a decent rate or can keep games close. Baltimore is well below that % in recent history. I think Tanaka is getting into his best form this time of the year as he knows the games mean more and this is his first time experiencing that in the MLB. Gausman has been anything but promising on a team that has anything but promising after a terrific year last year. I believe he could have lost a spot in the rotation on a better team. With all that said, the Yankees are used to playing well this time of the year and I think that does mean something as they have a certain vibe in their locker room. These teams are going in opposite directions. I think they will keep the bats going improve their record to get closer to the jays, possibly taking the division lead. It is my strong belief they will take a 6-1 season series lead vs Baltimore in convincing style after all is said and done tonight. The Yankees should look good in those pinstripes and take this game handily so take that juice and run with it.
2-Unit Play. Take LA Dodgers (-1.5, -105) over LA Angels(10:05 p.m. Tuesday Sept. 8th)
Simple-Clayton Kershaw in rare form!
The dodgers are producing runs as of late winning 8 of their last 10 vs Angels 4 of there last 6. The Angels lsot a tough one last night due to more struggles with the bats. Gee I couldn't think of a pitcher more to face with batting struggles! This may be a typical lmediocre scoring west coast affair but I am expecting something along the lines of 4-1 dodgers at worst. Be smart take the clearly better team, with the clearly better pitcher that is hungry going into the playoffs. We all saw Kershaw get fired up in the dugout a few weeks ago proving why he won MVP last year. The dodgers have turned it around for there leader since then. I expect the run support to be there,
Get the value in these games ASAP while it's still too good, nice and early. The early bird catches the worm!
Now on to tomorrow!
</SPAN>
</SPAN>
Can I ask why you like the Mets today? With the used up bullpen yesterday and Harvey's inning crap caused by his agent this week, I have to think Washington has the upper hand pitching and for the mets to win it will take many runs. I do like the Mets to win if it wasn't for the bullpen used up yesterday.
Can I ask why you like the Mets today? With the used up bullpen yesterday and Harvey's inning crap caused by his agent this week, I have to think Washington has the upper hand pitching and for the mets to win it will take many runs. I do like the Mets to win if it wasn't for the bullpen used up yesterday.
sure, just check out my write up. Tyler Clippard is there best RP and didn't throw a pitch yesterday. Harvey Clippard Familia if it's a close game. They're also averaging just under 6.5 runs in there last 5 games...Harvey also retracted what he said. His agent is Scott Boris. Please read the write up before asking questions. Good Luck!
