STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/28
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA *****
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• NOT SO PROMISING! •••
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The Denver Nuggets are getting a taste of what life might be like without Carmelo Anthony and at first glance it doesn’t look promising. Anthony left the team to be with his family after the death of his sister and the club has lost all three games without him, covering only once. But it wasn’t all bad for the Nuggets. J.R. Smith has played well lately, Ty Lawson is making plays and Nene looks really zoned-in.
The club obviously has a lot of problems on defense and that isn’t going to get much better with or without ‘Melo, though at least now the team sees some promise in its nucleus outside of their top scorer. Anthony is still listed as questionable for Tuesday’s game and the team hasn’t released any more information about when he will return. Either way, the over might be the best place to look in this matchup. The Trail Blazers had played over the total in three of their last four as they headed into Monday’s game at Utah while Denver has topped the total in five of its last eight.
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
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***** TUESDAY, DECEMBER 28TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Celtics won 14 of last 15 games; they're 5-4 as road favorite.
-- Orlando won its last three games, by 22-8-16 points.
-- Miami won 14 of its last 15 games (11-3 vs spread in last 14). Knicks are 16-4 vs spread in their last 20 games.
-- Bulls won 10 of last 12 games, covered four of last five as home fave.
-- Mavericks won 17 of last 18 games, covered last four.
-- Spurs won 11 of last 12 games, but are 1-6 vs spread in last seven.
-- Portland won five of its last six games.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Indiana lost five of last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread).
-- Cavaliers lost 13 of last 14 games (3-10-1 vs spread).
-- Milwaukee lost four of its last six games.
-- Toronto lost five of its last six games.
-- Lakers lost last two games, scoring 79-80 points.
-- Nuggets lost last three games, by 6-8-6 points.
• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Magic is 1-6 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Bucks are 3-0 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Mavericks are 4-1 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Portland is 4-3 vs spread if it played the night before.
• TOTALS
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-- Last three Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Chicago games.
-- Eight of last ten Dallas games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Laker games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Portland road games.
• QUICK HITS
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--BOSTON @ INDIANA, 7:00 PM ET BOSTON: 17-4 ATS Away off road loss scoring 80 pts or less. INDIANA: 7-0 Under revenging double digit loss.
--ORLANDO @ CLEVELAND, 7:00 PM ET ORLANDO: 1-8 ATS if road favorite last game. CLEVELAND: 3-11 ATS vs. Orlando.
--NEW YORK @ MIAMI, 7:30 PM ET NEW YORK: 11-1 ATS as road underdog. MIAMI: 24-9 Under off road win.
--MILWAUKEE @ CHICAGO, 8:00 PM ET MILWAUKEE: 22-6 ATS playing in 2nd of BB games. CHICAGO: 14-4 Under off SU win.
--TORONTO @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET TORONTO: 27-12 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. DALLAS: 5-17 ATS in non-conference home games.
--LA LAKERS @ SAN ANTONIO, 8:30 PM ET NBA LA LAKERS: 16-6 Under as road underdog. SAN ANTONIO: 21-8 ATS off double digit home win.
--PORTLAND @ DENVER, 9:00 PM ET PORTLAND: 18-6 ATS playing 2nd road game in 2 days. DENVER: 4-10 ATS in home games.
• NOTES & TIPS
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--Andrea Bargnani isn’t expected to play Monday or Tuesday for the Toronto Raptors and the team said he could end up missing the whole week with a strained calf he picked up last week. The Raptors are in Dallas Tuesday and in Houston on Friday. Bargnani averages nearly 20 points a night.
--After years of patience and a willingness to wait out injury upon injury with their franchise star, the Houston Rockets are engaged in trade discussions about center Yao Ming with several teams, league sources told Stat/Systems Sports. The lure of acquiring Yao for potential suitors is the $8 million in savings that insurance will provide for his $17.7 million expiring contract this season.
Some teams are considering re-signing Yao on a short-term deal with hopes of restoring him to playing health, while others see his contract as a cost-saving measure. Once one of the dominant players in the NBA, Yao, 30, will miss the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his left ankle. There are serious questions about his ability to return to the NBA on a full-time basis. The Rockets are dangling Yao to acquire a good young player with an upside, if not an established talent. Despite offering Yao in trades, the Rockets haven’t ruled out the possibility of re-signing him to a short-term contract extension.
--After fouling out with more than nine minutes left in the Celtics Christmas Day loss to Orlando, Shaquille O'Neal took aim at the officials, and for his comments the league docked him $35,000. His initial reaction? "Whoopdie-freaking-do," he said. Then, he thought it over. "In 20 years of playing in the NBA," he said, "I've paid over $90 million in federal tax, $40 million in FICA tax, and $1 million in David Stern tax."
It was the second time this month that O'Neal fouled out of a game, and afterwards he laid into longtime referee Bob Delaney, saying sarcastically that No. 26, Delaney's referee number, had a great game. "The fans paid all that money to watch No. 26 play," O'Neal said. "If I was a fan, I would be [upset]. You pay all that money for good seats, you have two of the best guys in the league sitting on the bench out of the game. That is what happens when you have control freaks out there."
It's the first fine of the season for the Celtics, who racked up $175,000 in league fines as a team last season. Most of that was rung up by Rasheed Wallace ($100,000), who had a strained relationship with officials. But the Celtics are coming to find out the refs have some hard feelings about O'Neal as well. "It’s interesting," said Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. "You can see the relationships he has with certain guys for sure."
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• NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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*** BOSTON (-4.5, O/U 190) @ INDIANA ***
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Injuries have been a problem all season for the Boston Celtics, but the absence of Rajon Rondo has been particularly felt over the last two games. The Eastern Conference-leading Celtics look to bounce back from their first loss in more than a month when they visit the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night. Boston had its 14-game winning streak snapped in an 86-78 loss at Orlando on Saturday. The loss was the team's first since a 102-101 defeat at Toronto on Nov. 21 and was its lowest-scoring game of the season.
While Shaquille O'Neal and former Pacer Jermaine O'Neal both returned from injuries, Rondo missed his fourth straight game with a sprained ankle. The team has also been without center Kendrick Perkins all season. It's the absence of Rondo, the NBA's assists leader, that has hurt the most recently. Boston has struggled to move the ball the last two games without its floor leader. The Celtics had a season-low 15 assists against the Magic after escaping with an 84-80 win over Philadelphia last Wednesday in which they had 19 assists. Rondo isn't expected to play Tuesday.
"I don't know if it did today, but it will, let's be honest," coach Doc Rivers told NBA.com regarding whether injuries played a factor in the loss to the Magic. "But listen, nobody is going to cry for us." The Celtics have lost back-to-back games only once this season, but they've won three in a row and nine of 11 against the Pacers, including a 99-88 victory Dec. 19 in which they were also without Rondo. That was the first time in seven games against Indiana that Boston failed to reach 100 points. Six players scored in double figures, including Paul Pierce, who had a triple-double with 18 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds.
This was the third straight year Boston has played on Christmas Day. The previous two seasons the Celtics struggled immediately after. They defeated the Magic last Christmas, but then lost three straight and eight of 12. However, Indiana doesn't appear to pose much of a problem. The Pacers have lost five of seven while failing to score 95 points in the last three games. They fell 104-90 to Memphis on Sunday, shooting 35.6 percent. Danny Granger scored 29 points, but was 8 of 20 from the field, while Roy Hibbert went 5 of 17 for 14 points. Granger is shooting 33.9 percent the last three games while Hibbert is making only 28 percent of his shots over the same stretch.
"They're going through a tough time right now," coach Jim O'Brien said. "Danny is struggling of late and they're both big weapons. I don't see anything when I'm watching video or practice that indicates they should be struggling. ... The ball's just not dropping." Their struggles have contributed to a rough stretch for the Pacers, who have averaged 90 points and shot 39.8 percent over the last seven games. Facing the Celtics isn't likely to end Granger and Hibbert's woes. The two combined for 36 points in last week's meeting, but shot 30.2 percent. Granger has connected on 36.3 percent in his last eight games against Boston.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 5.5; O/U 192
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -5.52
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--INDIANA is 84-57 ATS (+21.3 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 99.1, OPPONENT 92.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 26-39 ATS (-16.9 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 97.4, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 94.7, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--INDIANA is 39-21 UNDER (+15.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 100.0, OPPONENT 101.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.
The average score was INDIANA 91.6, OPPONENT 94.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 27-9 UNDER (+17.1 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.5, OPPONENT 90.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--INDIANA is 63-34 against the 1rst half line (+25.6 Units) in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 50.9, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--INDIANA is 27-9 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 54.0, OPPONENT 52.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.
The average score was INDIANA 53.9, OPPONENT 48.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--INDIANA is 88-62 UNDER (+19.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 48.1, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 72-44 UNDER (+23.6 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games being called for 5+ more fouls than opponent since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 46.5, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Home underdogs (INDIANA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games.
(28-6 since 1996.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (20-14)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.9
The average score in these games was: Team 98.3, Opponent 97 (Average point differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (INDIANA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(28-8 since 1996.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 47.2 (Average first half point differential = +2.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (INDIANA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a road loss.
(49-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.2, Opponent 45.1 (Total first half points scored = 93.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (92-64).
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Saturday, Stan 'The Man released (to all that called and signed-up for his 2010 College Bowl Bonanza) his Hugh *4-Star Selection with Arizona (+7.5). Stan said - "While Christmas Day finds a couple of interesting NBA scuffles, Christmas night finds a meaningless NFL contest. Thankfully, there’s a silver lining to every cloud as this stocking is stuffed with our 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK!"
"Though the ‘Boys are a solid 15-4 SU and ATS in this series off an ATS loss, we want no part of their ugly 1-16-1 ATS stat as non-division favorites from Game Thirteen out"... "We’re also not thrilled with their money-burning 1-6 ATS mark when they line up as favorites this season or their 1-4 ATS log on Saturdays during the regular season when they arrive off a SU win."
The Man went on to say - "We just asked you to go with the Panthers two days ago and now we’re suggesting a play on the Cardinals... "It may be a case of too much eggnog but it just may be that the Redbirds are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home on Saturdays during the regular season off a SU loss... “It also may be a case of ‘Zona owning a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS mark in Last Home Games off a loss since 2000... “Whatever the case, we’ll have another as Cardinals’ HC Ken Whisenhunt improves to 10-3 SU and ATS at home as pick or a dog!"
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*** ORLANDO (-7, O/U 192) @ CLEVELAND ***
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The Orlando Magic's new additions seem to be paying dividends on the offensive end, but an improved defensive effort has been just as critical to their success during a three-game winning streak. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to keep clamping down against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Magic look for a fourth straight victory Tuesday night as they wrap up a brief two-game road trip against the Cavaliers, who haven't scored 100 points in regulation in more than a month. Orlando expected Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson to provide a shot in the arm offensively after acquiring them Dec. 18.
The trio is now finding its footing, shooting a combined 46.4 percent during the team's three consecutive wins after connecting at a 24.5-percent clip in two losses. Coach Stan Van Gundy was just as disturbed by the Magic's defensive struggles during a 1-8 stretch Dec. 4-21. Orlando seems to have corrected those issues. After allowing 97.7 points per game in that nine-game rut, the Magic have surrendered an average of 89.0 during their modest winning streak. Orlando held Boston to 34.6-percent shooting during a Christmas Day victory, then limited New Jersey to 39.7 percent Monday while Hedo Turkoglu scored 20 points in a 104-88 win.
If anything, the Cavaliers have probably done even less than expected in their first season of the post-LeBron James era. After losing 21 times all of last season with James, Cleveland suffered loss No. 22 without him Sunday, falling 98-97 at home to woeful Minnesota. The Cavaliers couldn't hold a 14-point lead early in the fourth quarter as they lost for the 13th time in 14 games. "This one stings a little bit more, probably than any one all season," coach Byron Scott said. "We were almost scared to win the game. When you want to win the game, you have to go and take it. That's the bottom line."
Predictably, Cleveland's biggest problem without James has been finding enough offense to remain competitive. The Cavaliers are shooting an NBA-worst 41.0 percent in December, and haven't scored 100 points in regulation since a 111-100 loss at Orlando on Nov. 26. Scott, however, was hardly doing back flips after a performance against the Magic that led Van Gundy to deem his team's defensive effort "absolutely terrible." Cleveland's coach ripped into the game's officials after watching Dwight Howard shoot 24 free throws, four more than the Cavaliers attempted.
"It's hard when you're playing against eight people. There are five white jerseys and three with stripes. It's hard to play against all of them out there," said Scott, who was fined $35,000. The Magic have won three straight in the series since last season's All-Star break largely thanks to Jameer Nelson, who has averaged 18.3 points and 6.3 assists in the victories. Cleveland point guard Mo Williams has averaged 19.2 points and 11.4 assists while posting five consecutive double-doubles. He has one double-double in 21 career games against the Magic.
The Cavaliers might really need to rely on Williams on Tuesday. Guard Daniel Gibson, the team's third-leading scorer behind Williams and Antawn Jamison, is questionable with the flu, and has scored 4.8 points per game in his career versus Orlando -- his lowest average against any opponent.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 7.5; O/U 194
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -8.96
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 55-31 ATS (+20.7 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 102.5, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--ORLANDO is 54-33 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 101.5, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 49-29 UNDER (+17.1 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.7, OPPONENT 94.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 40-21 UNDER (+16.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 97.5, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--CLEVELAND is 54-82 against the 1rst half line (-36.2 Units) vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 46.3, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 5*)
--CLEVELAND is 8-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.1 Units) versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 48.3, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 45.3, OPPONENT 57.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 45.7, OPPONENT 57.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--CLEVELAND is 76-45 OVER (+26.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 52.3, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--CLEVELAND is 32-12 OVER (+18.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 54.2, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY ON - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots.
(64-30 since 1996.) (68.1%, +31 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (80-18)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 107.2, Opponent 98 (Average point differential = +9.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 39 (40.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (43-19).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (56-25).
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Stan 'The Man Continued to Sizzle with his 'RED~HOT' Roll in NBA Action on Sunday! Fresh off cashing his Top *4-Star winner on Saturday with the Knicks/Bulls Under (205.5), Stan dished out his *5-Star 'Totally Amazing Super Situational System' with Washington/San Antonio (Under 101.5, 1rst Half) - PLAY UNDER: All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 101.5 points - after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games. W-L Record, 30-6 (83.3%, +23.4 units) since 1996. With the win, it extended 'The Man's season record on the NBA hardwood to 22-5, (81.5%) with his last twenty-seven top rated selections.
--Result: Tony Parker had a stellar all-around game, finishing with 20 points, 14 assists and six rebounds, as San Antonio dropped the road-weary Wizards, 94-80, at AT&T Center. The Wizards, the only team in the NBA without a road victory (0-14), played without forwards Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, who were both suspended for actions detrimental to the team. Rashard Lewis stepped up with 21 points and 12 rebounds in defeat. Washington was within striking distance in the first half, staying within 27-23 at the end of one quarter while trailing, 48-42, at the break.
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*** NEW YORK @ MIAMI (-8.5, 203.5) ***
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LeBron James doesn't think the Miami Heat are out to make statements. The New York Knicks would like to make one of their own after failing to do so against the Heat less than two weeks ago. Looking to build on his first triple-double since he last faced the Knicks, James will try to help the surging Heat beat New York for the seventh consecutive time Tuesday night. Miami has won 14 of 15 since a 9-8 start to the season. The Heat beat the Los Angeles Lakers 96-80 on Saturday, holding the two time reigning NBA champion to 40.5-percent shooting. Miami is limiting opponents to an average of 86.7 points over the last 15 games.
"We're not trying to make a statement to anyone," said James, who had 27 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. "We're trying to show each other that we can play at a high level and try to get better every game. "We never had that arrogant part where we thought we were bigger than everybody else, but we were just very confident before we did anything. To have that humbling experience at the beginning of the season has helped us." The triple-double was James' third of the season and second in five games.
The two-time reigning league MVP had 32 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in a 113-91 victory over New York at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 17, his first meeting with the Knicks since spurning them to join the Heat as a free agent in the offseason. James is averaging 34.5 points, 7.7 assists and 7.5 rebounds in 11 games versus the Knicks since the start of the 2007-08 season. The Heat have also dominated New York, winning six in a row by an average of 14.1 points. Dwyane Wade has been a big reason for that, averaging 35.8 points in those meetings while hitting 12 of 25 3-pointers. Wade had 26 points at New York earlier this month.
The Knicks have turned in a pair of impressive defensive performances since a three-game skid. Three nights after a 112-98 victory over Oklahoma City, they beat Central Division-leading Chicago 103-95 on Saturday. The Bulls and Thunder shot a combined 41.5 percent versus New York, 22.6 from 3-point range. "We did a beautiful job defensively," the Knicks' Amar'e Stoudemire said. "We've been talking about defense now for the past, actually the whole year, but more so the past week about communicating, helping the helper, so it's really showing."
Stoudemire had 24 points and 14 rebounds in the last matchup with the Heat. Knicks point guard Raymond Felton had 20 points and 12 assists Saturday. He'll seek to improve upon his performance against Miami from Dec. 17, when he made 3 of 12 shots and finished with eight points and 10 assists. Felton has shot 29.5 percent from the floor, including 1 for 10 from beyond the arc, in his last four visits to Miami, all while playing for Charlotte.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 9.5; O/U 205
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -12.01
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making >=80% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 91.3, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was MIAMI 99.2, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 107.6, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a road underdog this season.
The average score was NEW YORK 109.9, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 39-18 UNDER (+19.2 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 96.4, OPPONENT 90.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 41-22 UNDER (+16.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 95.7, OPPONENT 90.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 59-40 UNDER (+15.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 102.5, OPPONENT 106.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the first half total >= 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 56.0, OPPONENT 44.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 16-30 against the 1rst half line (-17.0 Units) after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 52.0, OPPONENT 55.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 21-34 against the 1rst half line (-16.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 50.0, OPPONENT 54.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 61-36 UNDER (+21.4 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 47.8, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 69-45 UNDER (+19.5 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 47.8, OPPONENT 46.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 53-28 UNDER (+22.2 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they made 60% of their free throws or worse since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 47.3, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (NEW YORK) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 197.3
The average score in these games was: Team 94.7, Opponent 96.5 (Total points scored = 191.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (52.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (92-80).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - after allowing 85 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.
(36-10 since 1996.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.6, Opponent 45 (Average first half point differential = +8.6)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 (MIAMI) - off a road win by 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(50-20 since 1996.) (71.4%, +28 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.2, Opponent 47.6 (Total first half points scored = 98.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
___________________________________________
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__________________________________________________ __________________
*** MILWAUKEE @ CHICAGO (-8.5, O/U 178.5) ***
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The Milwaukee Bucks know they can ill afford to struggle at either end of the floor these days. The Chicago Bulls, on the other hand, are discovering they don't have to be perfect. Coming off one of their ugliest wins of the season, the Bulls open a four-game homestand Tuesday night against the injury-plagued Bucks in the first meeting of a series that's recently been defined by poor offensive performances. Milwaukee is currently missing leading scorer Brandon Jennings, Drew Gooden and Carlos Delfino, and has been without Corey Maggette and Andrew Bogut for stretches of the season.
That lack of consistency in the lineup hasn't made things easy on the Bucks, the NBA's worst scoring (90.8 points per game) and shooting (41.4 percent) team. The Bucks are 10-3 when they score 94 points or more and 3-11 when allowing more than 92, a slim margin for error that again proved costly Monday. After holding the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento to 79 points apiece in victories to close a three-game road trip, Atlanta shot 50.7 percent while beating Milwaukee 95-80 at the Bradley Center. "That's it right there," Bogut said. "I'll even give you a quote on that: 'When we let teams shoot a high percentage, we lose."
The Bulls needed to shoot well to win last season, going 11-30 when they failed to make 45 percent of their field-goal attempts, but they're now proving to be capable of a victory even on an off night. Chicago is 9-7 when it shoots below 45 percent, including a 39.6-percent performance in Sunday's 95-92 overtime victory at Detroit. "This was ugly, but sometimes in this league, you've got to win ugly," said Carlos Boozer, averaging 26.3 points and 12.1 rebounds in his last seven games. "We played a tough game, they played a tough game, and we got the win. We earned this one."
This will be Boozer's first look at the Bucks in a Bulls uniform, but he's hardly unfamiliar with success against Milwaukee. He had double-doubles in his last seven games against the Bucks with Utah, averaging 23.1 points. This series could use an offensive boost after four games last season that could hardly be described as aesthetically pleasing. Milwaukee shot 39.7 percent but won three times, including a 79-74 victory at the United Center on April 6 behind 26 points from former Bull John Salmons. Derrick Rose averaged 18.0 points in the season series but shot only 34.7 percent. There's little that Rose isn't doing well these days, however.
Chicago's third-year point guard is the only player in the league averaging at least 23 points, eight assists and four rebounds. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the Bulls' play since Joakim Noah went down is their ability to still control the boards. Chicago has outrebounded its opponents by an average of 6.0 in the five games Noah has missed with a thumb injury. That margin is nearly double what the Bulls averaged with both Boozer and Noah in the lineup. That's troubling news for Milwaukee, which is 3-9 when it's been outrebounded. Bogut figures to do everything he can to make sure that's not the case Tuesday. In three games against the Bulls last season, he averaged 21.7 points and 13.7 rebounds.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Chicago by 7; O/U 182
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -10
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -8.43
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in home games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 96.1, OPPONENT 96.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.1, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 95.4, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 94-65 UNDER (+22.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 93.9, OPPONENT 91.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 36-20 UNDER (+14.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 100.3, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 71-44 UNDER (+22.6 Units) after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more since 1996.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 95.6, OPPONENT 97.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 36-58 against the 1rst half line (-27.8 Units) after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 47.0, OPPONENT 49.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 11-29 against the 1rst half line (-20.9 Units) off a road win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.1, OPPONENT 50.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--MILWAUKEE is 88-60 against the 1rst half line (+22.0 Units) after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists since 1996.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 48.2, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.1, OPPONENT 42.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 42-18 UNDER (+22.2 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 46.6, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--MILWAUKEE is 69-45 UNDER (+19.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 47.6, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is 179.5 or less (CHICAGO) - vs. division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.
(40-15 since 1996.) (72.7%, +23.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 174.7
The average score in these games was: Team 87.2, Opponent 81.4 (Total points scored = 168.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 33 (61.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
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*** TORONTO @ DALLAS (-12.5, O/U 207) ***
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It's been a long time since the Dallas Mavericks lost at home to the Toronto Raptors. The Mavericks surely don't want to go a long time without Dirk Nowitzki. One night after their superstar left early due to a knee injury, the Mavericks go for their sixth straight win and 18th in 19 games Tuesday night when they host the slumping Raptors. Dallas may trail San Antonio by 1 1/2 games for the Southwest Division lead and the NBA's best record, but no team in the league is hotter than the Mavericks. They extended their winning streak to five and completed a perfect three-game road trip Monday with a 103-93 victory at Oklahoma City.
Caron Butler scored 21 points and Jason Kidd came within one rebound of a triple-double to help Dallas prevail despite losing Nowitzki to a right knee injury early in the second quarter. "You hate to see the big German go down," said Jason Terry, who had 13 points and eight assists off the bench. "But we saw him at halftime and he was smiling. He told us, 'No problem. You guys got this." Assistant Dwane Casey, running the team while head coach Rick Carlisle recovered from knee surgery, said he didn't believe Nowitzki's injury was serious. While Carlisle is expected to return to the bench Tuesday, Nowitzki's status is uncertain.
An extended stretch without Nowitzki would be uncharted territory for the Mavericks, who have had the services of their power forward for at least 76 games in each season since 1999-2000. They are 17-12 in the games he's missed during that stretch -- respectable but significantly worse than their .676 winning percentage with Nowitzki on the court. Regardless of whether Nowitzki takes the court, the Mavericks ought to be in good shape with the Raptors coming to town. Toronto has dropped 10 straight in Dallas since a 109-104 victory Dec. 30, 1999. The Raptors have allowed at least 105 points in each of those defeats, and an average of 114.1.
Toronto knows first-hand what it's like to play without a frontcourt player who's also the team's leading scorer. Andrea Bargnani, averaging 21.2 points, has missed three of the last five games due to various lower-body ailments. Bargnani, whose availability for Tuesday is unknown, sat out Monday night's game in Memphis with a strained left calf. The Raptors led by 12 early but lost 96-85, their third straight loss and fifth in six games. They established a season high in turnovers for the second straight game, giving the ball away 25 times after recording 24 turnovers in Wednesday's 115-93 home loss to Detroit.
"The offense is just out of sync when you are missing your main guy and everything went through him before," said Linas Kleiza, who led Toronto with 22 points on 10-of-16 shooting. "You're trying to figure out how to play without him, and maybe that's why we had so many turnovers." The Mavericks host the Spurs on Thursday.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 13, O/U 202
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -15
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -13.57
___________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 44-64 ATS (-26.4 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.8, OPPONENT 106.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 38-55 ATS (-22.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.8, OPPONENT 107.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 99.5, OPPONENT 108.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 81-49 OVER (+27.1 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 102.6, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 32-13 OVER (+17.6 Units) in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 103.0, OPPONENT 109.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 35-16 OVER (+17.3 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 102.8, OPPONENT 103.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 19-34 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 50.3, OPPONENT 52.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 7-22 against the 1rst half line (-16.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 48.1, OPPONENT 54.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 39-20 OVER (+17.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 54.2, OPPONENT 50.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 42-20 OVER (+20.0 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.0, OPPONENT 53.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(43-16 since 1996.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (57-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 12
The average score in these games was: Team 104.5, Opponent 89.9 (Average point differential = +14.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (32.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-6).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(68-26 since 1996.) (72.3%, +39.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207.7
The average score in these games was: Team 110.7, Opponent 101.1 (Total points scored = 211.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 50 (53.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-15).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (39-18).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(48-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.6%, +27.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 55.1, Opponent 44.7 (Average first half point differential = +10.4)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-16).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (92-53).
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*** LA LAKERS @ SAN ANTONIO (-3.5, O/U 197.5) ***
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As unhappy as Kobe Bryant sounded on Christmas, he might have a tough time feeling much better after this game. Coming off a pair of embarrassing losses, the Los Angeles Lakers visit the league-best San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night for the first time this season. While no team has a better record than the Spurs who already had 11 losses by this point last season, the Lakers are off to a disappointing start. They opened 23-4 last season en route to the best record in the Western Conference and a second straight championship, but now they're at risk of losing 10 games by the end of December for the first time since 2007.
Los Angeles followed a 98-79 home loss to a sub-.500 Milwaukee team with a 96-80 defeat to Miami in a Christmas matchup that didn't live up to the hype. The Lakers were held to 14 points in the first quarter and trailed by double digits for most of the second half. "It's like these games mean more to our opponents than they do to us," said Bryant, held to 17 points. "I think we need to get that straight, play with more focus, put more (emphasis) on these games. I don't like it... We know what we're capable of doing, and that's part of the problem."
Bryant, averaging 16.8 points over the past four games, stressed the team must do a better job of working out its problems in practice, something the Lakers tried to accomplish during two days off between the Heat game and this one. "Individually, you have to make that decision on what's important," Bryant said. "The game has to be the most important thing... This is serious stuff. You don't just have two rings and say, 'That's enough. We're satisfied with what we've got.' I'm not going to let that slide."
The Spurs couldn't help but look ahead to this matchup even before their most recent game, a 94-80 win over Washington on Sunday. "We talked about it this morning at shootaround; make sure we respect them and that we use this game to prepare for the Lakers," point guard Tony Parker said. "We have a big game against them, obviously, and we're going to have to match their energy. I'm sure they're going to come in and look to bounce back from their loss against Miami." San Antonio, which had a 10-game win streak snapped in its previous game at Orlando, has won 10 in a row at home but faces a Lakers team which has won five straight road games.
The teams split four meetings last season, with Bryant appearing in three and averaging 20.7 points, his fourth-worst mark against any opponent. The bigger key to the series was the Tim Duncan-Lamar Odom matchup. Each veteran forward reached double digits in rebounds in every meeting, but Duncan outscored Odom on average 24.5 to 9.5 in the Spurs' two wins while Odom had a 17.5-11.0 edge in the Lakers' two victories. Duncan has been playing limited minutes lately, averaging 8.7 points in the last three games. Odom has averaged 12.3 in his last three after scoring 19.1 per game through his first nine in December.
Odom has missed 17 of his last 20 3-point attempts, and the Lakers are shooting 27.3 percent from beyond the arc in their last four games. "We have to go back and figure things out," Odom said after the Miami loss, "look ourselves in the mirror, understand what's going on, and fix it."
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 5.5; O/U 205
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -5.33
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 99.5, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA LAKERS are 44-21 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.4, OPPONENT 99.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 98-70 UNDER (+23.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 94.9, OPPONENT 100.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA LAKERS are 40-22 UNDER (+15.8 Units) after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.0, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 13-29 against the 1rst half line (-18.7 Units) after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 48.9, OPPONENT 48.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 39-12 against the 1rst half line (+24.9 Units) when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.5, OPPONENT 46.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 70-46 UNDER (+19.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 48.2, OPPONENT 49.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 38-17 UNDER (+19.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 49.9, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season.
(32-11 since 1996.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 194.3
The average score in these games was: Team 98.8, Opponent 89.6 (Total points scored = 188.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (54.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
--PLAY ON - Any team (LA LAKERS) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest.
(34-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +20.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (31-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.9
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 97.7 (Average point differential = +4.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (32.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (69-53).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (SAN ANTONIO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 80 points or less 2 straight games.
(44-18 since 1996.) (71.0%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 44.2, Opponent 44.7 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
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*** PORTLAND @ DENVER (-7, O/U 204) ***
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The Denver Nuggets got an idea of what life would be like without Carmelo Anthony. It wasn't pleasant. Anthony is expected back on the court for the Nuggets, who will try to avoid their longest losing streak in almost four years when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday night. Anthony missed the last three games following the death of his sister last week. Despite being outscored by an average of only 6.7 points, Denver lost all three without the three-time All-Star, marking its longest losing streak of the season.
Anthony, who leads the Nuggets with 24.0 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, had been averaging 30.3 points and 10.0 boards over his last four games before joining his family. The Nuggets, who haven't dropped four in a row since Feb. 14-24, 2007, got outscored 25-7 over the final 8:11 to fall 95-89 to Philadelphia on Sunday. "We've played three really close games, we haven't won," coach George Karl said. "There's not a flow to the rhythm of the players you can play because of Melo not being here." Having Anthony back should be a major boost, especially against Portland at the Pepsi Center.
Anthony is averaging 28.8 points in 13 career home games, 12 wins against the Trail Blazers. He scored 18 points with eight rebounds in an 86-83 loss at Portland on Nov. 18. "He makes a difference in any game," said Chauncey Billups, who averaged 24.7 points during Anthony's three-game absence. "First through the fourth quarter, he makes a big difference, but he's definitely big in those type of situations." The Nuggets have won 19 of the last 21 home meetings versus Portland, including four in a row. While Anthony should return, it's unclear if Al Harrington will be back after the forward dislocated his right thumb Sunday. He had 17 points against the Blazers last month.
Portland had dropped 11 of 13 away from home before beating Utah 96-91 on Monday. The Trail Blazers outplayed the Jazz in the paint, outscoring them 40-32 while holding a 41-31 rebounding advantage. Another big effort from LaMarcus Aldridge could help Portland win at Denver for the first time since Dec. 16, 2007. Aldridge scored 26 points, pulled down seven boards and blocked two shots Monday. He leads the team with 19.2 points per game and his 8.5 rebounds are second to Marcus Camby's 10.9. Camby's status is unclear for this contest after he left Monday's victory in the third quarter with a sprained ankle. The center had 12 rebounds with four points and three blocks versus Utah.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by 6; O/U 199
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -5.34
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DENVER is 13-29 ATS (-18.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 110.1, OPPONENT 105.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 97.7, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 30-9 UNDER (+19.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 102.7, OPPONENT 99.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 81-47 UNDER (+29.3 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 99.3, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--PORTLAND is 41-18 against the 1rst half line (+21.2 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.0, OPPONENT 48.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--PORTLAND is 44-21 against the 1rst half line (+19.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.2, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 53.9, OPPONENT 43.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 97-63 UNDER (+27.7 Units) the 1rst half total revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 44.6, OPPONENT 48.5 - (Rating = 5*)
--PORTLAND is 79-47 UNDER (+27.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.1, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 5*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a road win.
(55-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.4%, +31.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.2, Opponent 49.3 (Average first half point differential = -0.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (141-118).
____________________________________
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• NOT SO PROMISING! •••
-------------------------------------
The Denver Nuggets are getting a taste of what life might be like without Carmelo Anthony and at first glance it doesn’t look promising. Anthony left the team to be with his family after the death of his sister and the club has lost all three games without him, covering only once. But it wasn’t all bad for the Nuggets. J.R. Smith has played well lately, Ty Lawson is making plays and Nene looks really zoned-in.
The club obviously has a lot of problems on defense and that isn’t going to get much better with or without ‘Melo, though at least now the team sees some promise in its nucleus outside of their top scorer. Anthony is still listed as questionable for Tuesday’s game and the team hasn’t released any more information about when he will return. Either way, the over might be the best place to look in this matchup. The Trail Blazers had played over the total in three of their last four as they headed into Monday’s game at Utah while Denver has topped the total in five of its last eight.
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
“Who will cash at the betting window on Tuesday, be sure to get all your winners each day... "Where the Winning Never Stops right here @ Stat/Systems Sports!" Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 "You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
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***** TUESDAY, DECEMBER 28TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
-----------
-- Celtics won 14 of last 15 games; they're 5-4 as road favorite.
-- Orlando won its last three games, by 22-8-16 points.
-- Miami won 14 of its last 15 games (11-3 vs spread in last 14). Knicks are 16-4 vs spread in their last 20 games.
-- Bulls won 10 of last 12 games, covered four of last five as home fave.
-- Mavericks won 17 of last 18 games, covered last four.
-- Spurs won 11 of last 12 games, but are 1-6 vs spread in last seven.
-- Portland won five of its last six games.
• COLD TEAMS
------------
-- Indiana lost five of last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread).
-- Cavaliers lost 13 of last 14 games (3-10-1 vs spread).
-- Milwaukee lost four of its last six games.
-- Toronto lost five of its last six games.
-- Lakers lost last two games, scoring 79-80 points.
-- Nuggets lost last three games, by 6-8-6 points.
• BACK-TO-BACK
--------------
-- Magic is 1-6 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Bucks are 3-0 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Mavericks are 4-1 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Portland is 4-3 vs spread if it played the night before.
• TOTALS
--------
-- Last three Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Chicago games.
-- Eight of last ten Dallas games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Laker games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Portland road games.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--BOSTON @ INDIANA, 7:00 PM ET BOSTON: 17-4 ATS Away off road loss scoring 80 pts or less. INDIANA: 7-0 Under revenging double digit loss.
--ORLANDO @ CLEVELAND, 7:00 PM ET ORLANDO: 1-8 ATS if road favorite last game. CLEVELAND: 3-11 ATS vs. Orlando.
--NEW YORK @ MIAMI, 7:30 PM ET NEW YORK: 11-1 ATS as road underdog. MIAMI: 24-9 Under off road win.
--MILWAUKEE @ CHICAGO, 8:00 PM ET MILWAUKEE: 22-6 ATS playing in 2nd of BB games. CHICAGO: 14-4 Under off SU win.
--TORONTO @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET TORONTO: 27-12 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. DALLAS: 5-17 ATS in non-conference home games.
--LA LAKERS @ SAN ANTONIO, 8:30 PM ET NBA LA LAKERS: 16-6 Under as road underdog. SAN ANTONIO: 21-8 ATS off double digit home win.
--PORTLAND @ DENVER, 9:00 PM ET PORTLAND: 18-6 ATS playing 2nd road game in 2 days. DENVER: 4-10 ATS in home games.
• NOTES & TIPS
--------------------
--Andrea Bargnani isn’t expected to play Monday or Tuesday for the Toronto Raptors and the team said he could end up missing the whole week with a strained calf he picked up last week. The Raptors are in Dallas Tuesday and in Houston on Friday. Bargnani averages nearly 20 points a night.
--After years of patience and a willingness to wait out injury upon injury with their franchise star, the Houston Rockets are engaged in trade discussions about center Yao Ming with several teams, league sources told Stat/Systems Sports. The lure of acquiring Yao for potential suitors is the $8 million in savings that insurance will provide for his $17.7 million expiring contract this season.
Some teams are considering re-signing Yao on a short-term deal with hopes of restoring him to playing health, while others see his contract as a cost-saving measure. Once one of the dominant players in the NBA, Yao, 30, will miss the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his left ankle. There are serious questions about his ability to return to the NBA on a full-time basis. The Rockets are dangling Yao to acquire a good young player with an upside, if not an established talent. Despite offering Yao in trades, the Rockets haven’t ruled out the possibility of re-signing him to a short-term contract extension.
--After fouling out with more than nine minutes left in the Celtics Christmas Day loss to Orlando, Shaquille O'Neal took aim at the officials, and for his comments the league docked him $35,000. His initial reaction? "Whoopdie-freaking-do," he said. Then, he thought it over. "In 20 years of playing in the NBA," he said, "I've paid over $90 million in federal tax, $40 million in FICA tax, and $1 million in David Stern tax."
It was the second time this month that O'Neal fouled out of a game, and afterwards he laid into longtime referee Bob Delaney, saying sarcastically that No. 26, Delaney's referee number, had a great game. "The fans paid all that money to watch No. 26 play," O'Neal said. "If I was a fan, I would be [upset]. You pay all that money for good seats, you have two of the best guys in the league sitting on the bench out of the game. That is what happens when you have control freaks out there."
It's the first fine of the season for the Celtics, who racked up $175,000 in league fines as a team last season. Most of that was rung up by Rasheed Wallace ($100,000), who had a strained relationship with officials. But the Celtics are coming to find out the refs have some hard feelings about O'Neal as well. "It’s interesting," said Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. "You can see the relationships he has with certain guys for sure."
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• NOTE: NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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*** BOSTON (-4.5, O/U 190) @ INDIANA ***
--------------------------------------------------------
Injuries have been a problem all season for the Boston Celtics, but the absence of Rajon Rondo has been particularly felt over the last two games. The Eastern Conference-leading Celtics look to bounce back from their first loss in more than a month when they visit the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night. Boston had its 14-game winning streak snapped in an 86-78 loss at Orlando on Saturday. The loss was the team's first since a 102-101 defeat at Toronto on Nov. 21 and was its lowest-scoring game of the season.
While Shaquille O'Neal and former Pacer Jermaine O'Neal both returned from injuries, Rondo missed his fourth straight game with a sprained ankle. The team has also been without center Kendrick Perkins all season. It's the absence of Rondo, the NBA's assists leader, that has hurt the most recently. Boston has struggled to move the ball the last two games without its floor leader. The Celtics had a season-low 15 assists against the Magic after escaping with an 84-80 win over Philadelphia last Wednesday in which they had 19 assists. Rondo isn't expected to play Tuesday.
"I don't know if it did today, but it will, let's be honest," coach Doc Rivers told NBA.com regarding whether injuries played a factor in the loss to the Magic. "But listen, nobody is going to cry for us." The Celtics have lost back-to-back games only once this season, but they've won three in a row and nine of 11 against the Pacers, including a 99-88 victory Dec. 19 in which they were also without Rondo. That was the first time in seven games against Indiana that Boston failed to reach 100 points. Six players scored in double figures, including Paul Pierce, who had a triple-double with 18 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds.
This was the third straight year Boston has played on Christmas Day. The previous two seasons the Celtics struggled immediately after. They defeated the Magic last Christmas, but then lost three straight and eight of 12. However, Indiana doesn't appear to pose much of a problem. The Pacers have lost five of seven while failing to score 95 points in the last three games. They fell 104-90 to Memphis on Sunday, shooting 35.6 percent. Danny Granger scored 29 points, but was 8 of 20 from the field, while Roy Hibbert went 5 of 17 for 14 points. Granger is shooting 33.9 percent the last three games while Hibbert is making only 28 percent of his shots over the same stretch.
"They're going through a tough time right now," coach Jim O'Brien said. "Danny is struggling of late and they're both big weapons. I don't see anything when I'm watching video or practice that indicates they should be struggling. ... The ball's just not dropping." Their struggles have contributed to a rough stretch for the Pacers, who have averaged 90 points and shot 39.8 percent over the last seven games. Facing the Celtics isn't likely to end Granger and Hibbert's woes. The two combined for 36 points in last week's meeting, but shot 30.2 percent. Granger has connected on 36.3 percent in his last eight games against Boston.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 5.5; O/U 192
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -5.52
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 84-57 ATS (+21.3 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 99.1, OPPONENT 92.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 26-39 ATS (-16.9 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 97.4, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 94.7, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 39-21 UNDER (+15.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 100.0, OPPONENT 101.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.
The average score was INDIANA 91.6, OPPONENT 94.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 27-9 UNDER (+17.1 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.5, OPPONENT 90.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 63-34 against the 1rst half line (+25.6 Units) in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 50.9, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--INDIANA is 27-9 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 54.0, OPPONENT 52.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.
The average score was INDIANA 53.9, OPPONENT 48.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 88-62 UNDER (+19.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 48.1, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 72-44 UNDER (+23.6 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games being called for 5+ more fouls than opponent since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 46.5, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs (INDIANA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games.
(28-6 since 1996.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (20-14)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.9
The average score in these games was: Team 98.3, Opponent 97 (Average point differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (INDIANA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(28-8 since 1996.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 47.2 (Average first half point differential = +2.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (INDIANA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a road loss.
(49-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.2, Opponent 45.1 (Total first half points scored = 93.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (92-64).
__________________________________
Saturday, Stan 'The Man released (to all that called and signed-up for his 2010 College Bowl Bonanza) his Hugh *4-Star Selection with Arizona (+7.5). Stan said - "While Christmas Day finds a couple of interesting NBA scuffles, Christmas night finds a meaningless NFL contest. Thankfully, there’s a silver lining to every cloud as this stocking is stuffed with our 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK!"
"Though the ‘Boys are a solid 15-4 SU and ATS in this series off an ATS loss, we want no part of their ugly 1-16-1 ATS stat as non-division favorites from Game Thirteen out"... "We’re also not thrilled with their money-burning 1-6 ATS mark when they line up as favorites this season or their 1-4 ATS log on Saturdays during the regular season when they arrive off a SU win."
The Man went on to say - "We just asked you to go with the Panthers two days ago and now we’re suggesting a play on the Cardinals... "It may be a case of too much eggnog but it just may be that the Redbirds are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home on Saturdays during the regular season off a SU loss... “It also may be a case of ‘Zona owning a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS mark in Last Home Games off a loss since 2000... “Whatever the case, we’ll have another as Cardinals’ HC Ken Whisenhunt improves to 10-3 SU and ATS at home as pick or a dog!"
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*** ORLANDO (-7, O/U 192) @ CLEVELAND ***
-----------------------------------------------------------
The Orlando Magic's new additions seem to be paying dividends on the offensive end, but an improved defensive effort has been just as critical to their success during a three-game winning streak. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to keep clamping down against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Magic look for a fourth straight victory Tuesday night as they wrap up a brief two-game road trip against the Cavaliers, who haven't scored 100 points in regulation in more than a month. Orlando expected Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson to provide a shot in the arm offensively after acquiring them Dec. 18.
The trio is now finding its footing, shooting a combined 46.4 percent during the team's three consecutive wins after connecting at a 24.5-percent clip in two losses. Coach Stan Van Gundy was just as disturbed by the Magic's defensive struggles during a 1-8 stretch Dec. 4-21. Orlando seems to have corrected those issues. After allowing 97.7 points per game in that nine-game rut, the Magic have surrendered an average of 89.0 during their modest winning streak. Orlando held Boston to 34.6-percent shooting during a Christmas Day victory, then limited New Jersey to 39.7 percent Monday while Hedo Turkoglu scored 20 points in a 104-88 win.
If anything, the Cavaliers have probably done even less than expected in their first season of the post-LeBron James era. After losing 21 times all of last season with James, Cleveland suffered loss No. 22 without him Sunday, falling 98-97 at home to woeful Minnesota. The Cavaliers couldn't hold a 14-point lead early in the fourth quarter as they lost for the 13th time in 14 games. "This one stings a little bit more, probably than any one all season," coach Byron Scott said. "We were almost scared to win the game. When you want to win the game, you have to go and take it. That's the bottom line."
Predictably, Cleveland's biggest problem without James has been finding enough offense to remain competitive. The Cavaliers are shooting an NBA-worst 41.0 percent in December, and haven't scored 100 points in regulation since a 111-100 loss at Orlando on Nov. 26. Scott, however, was hardly doing back flips after a performance against the Magic that led Van Gundy to deem his team's defensive effort "absolutely terrible." Cleveland's coach ripped into the game's officials after watching Dwight Howard shoot 24 free throws, four more than the Cavaliers attempted.
"It's hard when you're playing against eight people. There are five white jerseys and three with stripes. It's hard to play against all of them out there," said Scott, who was fined $35,000. The Magic have won three straight in the series since last season's All-Star break largely thanks to Jameer Nelson, who has averaged 18.3 points and 6.3 assists in the victories. Cleveland point guard Mo Williams has averaged 19.2 points and 11.4 assists while posting five consecutive double-doubles. He has one double-double in 21 career games against the Magic.
The Cavaliers might really need to rely on Williams on Tuesday. Guard Daniel Gibson, the team's third-leading scorer behind Williams and Antawn Jamison, is questionable with the flu, and has scored 4.8 points per game in his career versus Orlando -- his lowest average against any opponent.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 7.5; O/U 194
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -8.96
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 55-31 ATS (+20.7 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 102.5, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--ORLANDO is 54-33 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 101.5, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 49-29 UNDER (+17.1 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.7, OPPONENT 94.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 40-21 UNDER (+16.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 97.5, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 54-82 against the 1rst half line (-36.2 Units) vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 46.3, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 5*)
--CLEVELAND is 8-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.1 Units) versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 48.3, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 45.3, OPPONENT 57.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 1-8 against the 1rst half line (-7.8 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 45.7, OPPONENT 57.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 76-45 OVER (+26.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 52.3, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--CLEVELAND is 32-12 OVER (+18.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 54.2, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots.
(64-30 since 1996.) (68.1%, +31 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (80-18)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 107.2, Opponent 98 (Average point differential = +9.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 39 (40.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (43-19).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (56-25).
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Stan 'The Man Continued to Sizzle with his 'RED~HOT' Roll in NBA Action on Sunday! Fresh off cashing his Top *4-Star winner on Saturday with the Knicks/Bulls Under (205.5), Stan dished out his *5-Star 'Totally Amazing Super Situational System' with Washington/San Antonio (Under 101.5, 1rst Half) - PLAY UNDER: All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 101.5 points - after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games. W-L Record, 30-6 (83.3%, +23.4 units) since 1996. With the win, it extended 'The Man's season record on the NBA hardwood to 22-5, (81.5%) with his last twenty-seven top rated selections.
--Result: Tony Parker had a stellar all-around game, finishing with 20 points, 14 assists and six rebounds, as San Antonio dropped the road-weary Wizards, 94-80, at AT&T Center. The Wizards, the only team in the NBA without a road victory (0-14), played without forwards Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, who were both suspended for actions detrimental to the team. Rashard Lewis stepped up with 21 points and 12 rebounds in defeat. Washington was within striking distance in the first half, staying within 27-23 at the end of one quarter while trailing, 48-42, at the break.
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*** NEW YORK @ MIAMI (-8.5, 203.5) ***
----------------------------------------------------
LeBron James doesn't think the Miami Heat are out to make statements. The New York Knicks would like to make one of their own after failing to do so against the Heat less than two weeks ago. Looking to build on his first triple-double since he last faced the Knicks, James will try to help the surging Heat beat New York for the seventh consecutive time Tuesday night. Miami has won 14 of 15 since a 9-8 start to the season. The Heat beat the Los Angeles Lakers 96-80 on Saturday, holding the two time reigning NBA champion to 40.5-percent shooting. Miami is limiting opponents to an average of 86.7 points over the last 15 games.
"We're not trying to make a statement to anyone," said James, who had 27 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. "We're trying to show each other that we can play at a high level and try to get better every game. "We never had that arrogant part where we thought we were bigger than everybody else, but we were just very confident before we did anything. To have that humbling experience at the beginning of the season has helped us." The triple-double was James' third of the season and second in five games.
The two-time reigning league MVP had 32 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in a 113-91 victory over New York at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 17, his first meeting with the Knicks since spurning them to join the Heat as a free agent in the offseason. James is averaging 34.5 points, 7.7 assists and 7.5 rebounds in 11 games versus the Knicks since the start of the 2007-08 season. The Heat have also dominated New York, winning six in a row by an average of 14.1 points. Dwyane Wade has been a big reason for that, averaging 35.8 points in those meetings while hitting 12 of 25 3-pointers. Wade had 26 points at New York earlier this month.
The Knicks have turned in a pair of impressive defensive performances since a three-game skid. Three nights after a 112-98 victory over Oklahoma City, they beat Central Division-leading Chicago 103-95 on Saturday. The Bulls and Thunder shot a combined 41.5 percent versus New York, 22.6 from 3-point range. "We did a beautiful job defensively," the Knicks' Amar'e Stoudemire said. "We've been talking about defense now for the past, actually the whole year, but more so the past week about communicating, helping the helper, so it's really showing."
Stoudemire had 24 points and 14 rebounds in the last matchup with the Heat. Knicks point guard Raymond Felton had 20 points and 12 assists Saturday. He'll seek to improve upon his performance against Miami from Dec. 17, when he made 3 of 12 shots and finished with eight points and 10 assists. Felton has shot 29.5 percent from the floor, including 1 for 10 from beyond the arc, in his last four visits to Miami, all while playing for Charlotte.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 9.5; O/U 205
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -12.01
____________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making >=80% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 91.3, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was MIAMI 99.2, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 107.6, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a road underdog this season.
The average score was NEW YORK 109.9, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 39-18 UNDER (+19.2 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 96.4, OPPONENT 90.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 41-22 UNDER (+16.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 95.7, OPPONENT 90.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 59-40 UNDER (+15.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 102.5, OPPONENT 106.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the first half total >= 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 56.0, OPPONENT 44.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 16-30 against the 1rst half line (-17.0 Units) after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 52.0, OPPONENT 55.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 21-34 against the 1rst half line (-16.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 50.0, OPPONENT 54.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 61-36 UNDER (+21.4 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 47.8, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 69-45 UNDER (+19.5 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 47.8, OPPONENT 46.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 53-28 UNDER (+22.2 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they made 60% of their free throws or worse since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 47.3, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (NEW YORK) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 197.3
The average score in these games was: Team 94.7, Opponent 96.5 (Total points scored = 191.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (52.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (92-80).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - after allowing 85 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.
(36-10 since 1996.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.6, Opponent 45 (Average first half point differential = +8.6)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 (MIAMI) - off a road win by 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(50-20 since 1996.) (71.4%, +28 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.2, Opponent 47.6 (Total first half points scored = 98.8)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
___________________________________________
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__________________________________________________ __________________
*** MILWAUKEE @ CHICAGO (-8.5, O/U 178.5) ***
---------------------------------------------------------------
The Milwaukee Bucks know they can ill afford to struggle at either end of the floor these days. The Chicago Bulls, on the other hand, are discovering they don't have to be perfect. Coming off one of their ugliest wins of the season, the Bulls open a four-game homestand Tuesday night against the injury-plagued Bucks in the first meeting of a series that's recently been defined by poor offensive performances. Milwaukee is currently missing leading scorer Brandon Jennings, Drew Gooden and Carlos Delfino, and has been without Corey Maggette and Andrew Bogut for stretches of the season.
That lack of consistency in the lineup hasn't made things easy on the Bucks, the NBA's worst scoring (90.8 points per game) and shooting (41.4 percent) team. The Bucks are 10-3 when they score 94 points or more and 3-11 when allowing more than 92, a slim margin for error that again proved costly Monday. After holding the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento to 79 points apiece in victories to close a three-game road trip, Atlanta shot 50.7 percent while beating Milwaukee 95-80 at the Bradley Center. "That's it right there," Bogut said. "I'll even give you a quote on that: 'When we let teams shoot a high percentage, we lose."
The Bulls needed to shoot well to win last season, going 11-30 when they failed to make 45 percent of their field-goal attempts, but they're now proving to be capable of a victory even on an off night. Chicago is 9-7 when it shoots below 45 percent, including a 39.6-percent performance in Sunday's 95-92 overtime victory at Detroit. "This was ugly, but sometimes in this league, you've got to win ugly," said Carlos Boozer, averaging 26.3 points and 12.1 rebounds in his last seven games. "We played a tough game, they played a tough game, and we got the win. We earned this one."
This will be Boozer's first look at the Bucks in a Bulls uniform, but he's hardly unfamiliar with success against Milwaukee. He had double-doubles in his last seven games against the Bucks with Utah, averaging 23.1 points. This series could use an offensive boost after four games last season that could hardly be described as aesthetically pleasing. Milwaukee shot 39.7 percent but won three times, including a 79-74 victory at the United Center on April 6 behind 26 points from former Bull John Salmons. Derrick Rose averaged 18.0 points in the season series but shot only 34.7 percent. There's little that Rose isn't doing well these days, however.
Chicago's third-year point guard is the only player in the league averaging at least 23 points, eight assists and four rebounds. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the Bulls' play since Joakim Noah went down is their ability to still control the boards. Chicago has outrebounded its opponents by an average of 6.0 in the five games Noah has missed with a thumb injury. That margin is nearly double what the Bulls averaged with both Boozer and Noah in the lineup. That's troubling news for Milwaukee, which is 3-9 when it's been outrebounded. Bogut figures to do everything he can to make sure that's not the case Tuesday. In three games against the Bulls last season, he averaged 21.7 points and 13.7 rebounds.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Chicago by 7; O/U 182
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -10
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -8.43
____________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in home games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 96.1, OPPONENT 96.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.1, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 95.4, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 94-65 UNDER (+22.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 93.9, OPPONENT 91.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 36-20 UNDER (+14.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 100.3, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 71-44 UNDER (+22.6 Units) after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more since 1996.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 95.6, OPPONENT 97.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 36-58 against the 1rst half line (-27.8 Units) after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 47.0, OPPONENT 49.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 11-29 against the 1rst half line (-20.9 Units) off a road win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.1, OPPONENT 50.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--MILWAUKEE is 88-60 against the 1rst half line (+22.0 Units) after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists since 1996.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 48.2, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.1, OPPONENT 42.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 42-18 UNDER (+22.2 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 46.6, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--MILWAUKEE is 69-45 UNDER (+19.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 47.6, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is 179.5 or less (CHICAGO) - vs. division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.
(40-15 since 1996.) (72.7%, +23.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 174.7
The average score in these games was: Team 87.2, Opponent 81.4 (Total points scored = 168.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 33 (61.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
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*** TORONTO @ DALLAS (-12.5, O/U 207) ***
---------------------------------------------------------
It's been a long time since the Dallas Mavericks lost at home to the Toronto Raptors. The Mavericks surely don't want to go a long time without Dirk Nowitzki. One night after their superstar left early due to a knee injury, the Mavericks go for their sixth straight win and 18th in 19 games Tuesday night when they host the slumping Raptors. Dallas may trail San Antonio by 1 1/2 games for the Southwest Division lead and the NBA's best record, but no team in the league is hotter than the Mavericks. They extended their winning streak to five and completed a perfect three-game road trip Monday with a 103-93 victory at Oklahoma City.
Caron Butler scored 21 points and Jason Kidd came within one rebound of a triple-double to help Dallas prevail despite losing Nowitzki to a right knee injury early in the second quarter. "You hate to see the big German go down," said Jason Terry, who had 13 points and eight assists off the bench. "But we saw him at halftime and he was smiling. He told us, 'No problem. You guys got this." Assistant Dwane Casey, running the team while head coach Rick Carlisle recovered from knee surgery, said he didn't believe Nowitzki's injury was serious. While Carlisle is expected to return to the bench Tuesday, Nowitzki's status is uncertain.
An extended stretch without Nowitzki would be uncharted territory for the Mavericks, who have had the services of their power forward for at least 76 games in each season since 1999-2000. They are 17-12 in the games he's missed during that stretch -- respectable but significantly worse than their .676 winning percentage with Nowitzki on the court. Regardless of whether Nowitzki takes the court, the Mavericks ought to be in good shape with the Raptors coming to town. Toronto has dropped 10 straight in Dallas since a 109-104 victory Dec. 30, 1999. The Raptors have allowed at least 105 points in each of those defeats, and an average of 114.1.
Toronto knows first-hand what it's like to play without a frontcourt player who's also the team's leading scorer. Andrea Bargnani, averaging 21.2 points, has missed three of the last five games due to various lower-body ailments. Bargnani, whose availability for Tuesday is unknown, sat out Monday night's game in Memphis with a strained left calf. The Raptors led by 12 early but lost 96-85, their third straight loss and fifth in six games. They established a season high in turnovers for the second straight game, giving the ball away 25 times after recording 24 turnovers in Wednesday's 115-93 home loss to Detroit.
"The offense is just out of sync when you are missing your main guy and everything went through him before," said Linas Kleiza, who led Toronto with 22 points on 10-of-16 shooting. "You're trying to figure out how to play without him, and maybe that's why we had so many turnovers." The Mavericks host the Spurs on Thursday.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 13, O/U 202
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -15
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -13.57
___________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 44-64 ATS (-26.4 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.8, OPPONENT 106.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 38-55 ATS (-22.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.8, OPPONENT 107.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 99.5, OPPONENT 108.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 81-49 OVER (+27.1 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 102.6, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 32-13 OVER (+17.6 Units) in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 103.0, OPPONENT 109.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 35-16 OVER (+17.3 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 102.8, OPPONENT 103.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 19-34 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 50.3, OPPONENT 52.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 7-22 against the 1rst half line (-16.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 48.1, OPPONENT 54.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 39-20 OVER (+17.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 54.2, OPPONENT 50.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 42-20 OVER (+20.0 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.0, OPPONENT 53.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(43-16 since 1996.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (57-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 12
The average score in these games was: Team 104.5, Opponent 89.9 (Average point differential = +14.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (32.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-6).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(68-26 since 1996.) (72.3%, +39.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207.7
The average score in these games was: Team 110.7, Opponent 101.1 (Total points scored = 211.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 50 (53.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-15).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (39-18).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
(48-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.6%, +27.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 55.1, Opponent 44.7 (Average first half point differential = +10.4)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-16).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (92-53).
__________________________________
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*** LA LAKERS @ SAN ANTONIO (-3.5, O/U 197.5) ***
-------------------------------------------------------------------
As unhappy as Kobe Bryant sounded on Christmas, he might have a tough time feeling much better after this game. Coming off a pair of embarrassing losses, the Los Angeles Lakers visit the league-best San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night for the first time this season. While no team has a better record than the Spurs who already had 11 losses by this point last season, the Lakers are off to a disappointing start. They opened 23-4 last season en route to the best record in the Western Conference and a second straight championship, but now they're at risk of losing 10 games by the end of December for the first time since 2007.
Los Angeles followed a 98-79 home loss to a sub-.500 Milwaukee team with a 96-80 defeat to Miami in a Christmas matchup that didn't live up to the hype. The Lakers were held to 14 points in the first quarter and trailed by double digits for most of the second half. "It's like these games mean more to our opponents than they do to us," said Bryant, held to 17 points. "I think we need to get that straight, play with more focus, put more (emphasis) on these games. I don't like it... We know what we're capable of doing, and that's part of the problem."
Bryant, averaging 16.8 points over the past four games, stressed the team must do a better job of working out its problems in practice, something the Lakers tried to accomplish during two days off between the Heat game and this one. "Individually, you have to make that decision on what's important," Bryant said. "The game has to be the most important thing... This is serious stuff. You don't just have two rings and say, 'That's enough. We're satisfied with what we've got.' I'm not going to let that slide."
The Spurs couldn't help but look ahead to this matchup even before their most recent game, a 94-80 win over Washington on Sunday. "We talked about it this morning at shootaround; make sure we respect them and that we use this game to prepare for the Lakers," point guard Tony Parker said. "We have a big game against them, obviously, and we're going to have to match their energy. I'm sure they're going to come in and look to bounce back from their loss against Miami." San Antonio, which had a 10-game win streak snapped in its previous game at Orlando, has won 10 in a row at home but faces a Lakers team which has won five straight road games.
The teams split four meetings last season, with Bryant appearing in three and averaging 20.7 points, his fourth-worst mark against any opponent. The bigger key to the series was the Tim Duncan-Lamar Odom matchup. Each veteran forward reached double digits in rebounds in every meeting, but Duncan outscored Odom on average 24.5 to 9.5 in the Spurs' two wins while Odom had a 17.5-11.0 edge in the Lakers' two victories. Duncan has been playing limited minutes lately, averaging 8.7 points in the last three games. Odom has averaged 12.3 in his last three after scoring 19.1 per game through his first nine in December.
Odom has missed 17 of his last 20 3-point attempts, and the Lakers are shooting 27.3 percent from beyond the arc in their last four games. "We have to go back and figure things out," Odom said after the Miami loss, "look ourselves in the mirror, understand what's going on, and fix it."
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 5.5; O/U 205
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -5.33
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 99.5, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA LAKERS are 44-21 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.4, OPPONENT 99.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 98-70 UNDER (+23.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 94.9, OPPONENT 100.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA LAKERS are 40-22 UNDER (+15.8 Units) after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.0, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--SAN ANTONIO is 13-29 against the 1rst half line (-18.7 Units) after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 48.9, OPPONENT 48.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 39-12 against the 1rst half line (+24.9 Units) when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.5, OPPONENT 46.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 70-46 UNDER (+19.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 48.2, OPPONENT 49.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 38-17 UNDER (+19.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 49.9, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season.
(32-11 since 1996.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 194.3
The average score in these games was: Team 98.8, Opponent 89.6 (Total points scored = 188.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (54.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
--PLAY ON - Any team (LA LAKERS) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest.
(34-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +20.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (31-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.9
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 97.7 (Average point differential = +4.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (32.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (69-53).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (SAN ANTONIO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 80 points or less 2 straight games.
(44-18 since 1996.) (71.0%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 44.2, Opponent 44.7 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
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*** PORTLAND @ DENVER (-7, O/U 204) ***
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The Denver Nuggets got an idea of what life would be like without Carmelo Anthony. It wasn't pleasant. Anthony is expected back on the court for the Nuggets, who will try to avoid their longest losing streak in almost four years when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday night. Anthony missed the last three games following the death of his sister last week. Despite being outscored by an average of only 6.7 points, Denver lost all three without the three-time All-Star, marking its longest losing streak of the season.
Anthony, who leads the Nuggets with 24.0 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, had been averaging 30.3 points and 10.0 boards over his last four games before joining his family. The Nuggets, who haven't dropped four in a row since Feb. 14-24, 2007, got outscored 25-7 over the final 8:11 to fall 95-89 to Philadelphia on Sunday. "We've played three really close games, we haven't won," coach George Karl said. "There's not a flow to the rhythm of the players you can play because of Melo not being here." Having Anthony back should be a major boost, especially against Portland at the Pepsi Center.
Anthony is averaging 28.8 points in 13 career home games, 12 wins against the Trail Blazers. He scored 18 points with eight rebounds in an 86-83 loss at Portland on Nov. 18. "He makes a difference in any game," said Chauncey Billups, who averaged 24.7 points during Anthony's three-game absence. "First through the fourth quarter, he makes a big difference, but he's definitely big in those type of situations." The Nuggets have won 19 of the last 21 home meetings versus Portland, including four in a row. While Anthony should return, it's unclear if Al Harrington will be back after the forward dislocated his right thumb Sunday. He had 17 points against the Blazers last month.
Portland had dropped 11 of 13 away from home before beating Utah 96-91 on Monday. The Trail Blazers outplayed the Jazz in the paint, outscoring them 40-32 while holding a 41-31 rebounding advantage. Another big effort from LaMarcus Aldridge could help Portland win at Denver for the first time since Dec. 16, 2007. Aldridge scored 26 points, pulled down seven boards and blocked two shots Monday. He leads the team with 19.2 points per game and his 8.5 rebounds are second to Marcus Camby's 10.9. Camby's status is unclear for this contest after he left Monday's victory in the third quarter with a sprained ankle. The center had 12 rebounds with four points and three blocks versus Utah.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by 6; O/U 199
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -5.34
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--DENVER is 13-29 ATS (-18.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 110.1, OPPONENT 105.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 67-45 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 97.7, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DENVER is 30-9 UNDER (+19.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 102.7, OPPONENT 99.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 81-47 UNDER (+29.3 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 99.3, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--PORTLAND is 41-18 against the 1rst half line (+21.2 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.0, OPPONENT 48.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--PORTLAND is 44-21 against the 1rst half line (+19.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.2, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 53.9, OPPONENT 43.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DENVER is 97-63 UNDER (+27.7 Units) the 1rst half total revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 44.6, OPPONENT 48.5 - (Rating = 5*)
--PORTLAND is 79-47 UNDER (+27.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.1, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 5*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a road win.
(55-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.4%, +31.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.2, Opponent 49.3 (Average first half point differential = -0.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (141-118).
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Richie Carrera of Bookie Assassin
23-14 in NBA this year.. Has Orlando tonight
35-25 in NHL this year.. Has Philly tonight
49-29 in NFL this year.. Has Philly tonight
John Chang of Bookie Assassin
60-52 in NBA this year.. Has Orlando tonight
13-14 in CBB this year.. Has Purdue and Wisconsin tonight
Jimmy "the iceman" Robinson of Bookie Assassin
36-29 in NFL this year.. Has Philly tonight
41-30 in CFB this year.. Has WVU and Mizzou tonight
56-51 in CBB this year.. Has UNC and Wisconsin tonight
Randy "the unabomber" Bruce of Bookie Assassin
42-30 in CFB this year.. Has Mizzou tonight
21-25 in NBA this year.. Has Orlando tonight
43-29 in CBB this year.. Has Purdue, Cincy and Minnesota
23-14 in NBA this year.. Has Orlando tonight
35-25 in NHL this year.. Has Philly tonight
49-29 in NFL this year.. Has Philly tonight
John Chang of Bookie Assassin
60-52 in NBA this year.. Has Orlando tonight
13-14 in CBB this year.. Has Purdue and Wisconsin tonight
Jimmy "the iceman" Robinson of Bookie Assassin
36-29 in NFL this year.. Has Philly tonight
41-30 in CFB this year.. Has WVU and Mizzou tonight
56-51 in CBB this year.. Has UNC and Wisconsin tonight
Randy "the unabomber" Bruce of Bookie Assassin
42-30 in CFB this year.. Has Mizzou tonight
21-25 in NBA this year.. Has Orlando tonight
43-29 in CBB this year.. Has Purdue, Cincy and Minnesota
