Ben Burns
League: MLB
Competition: Cincinnati Reds(Miley) vs Pittsburgh Pirates(Peters)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 06:35 pm ET
Bet Type: Moneyline
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -153
Analysis:
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. If the Reds want to make the Wild Card, these are the type of games they absolutely need to win. Miley is 12-5 with a 2.89 ERA. He averages six innings per start and he's coming off a gem. All he did was allow one run through seven complete innings, striking out eight, without walking a batter. In his last two road starts, he's allowd one combined run through 14 innings. On the other hand, Peters hasn't gone more than five innings in a start since 2019. The Reds won 10-0 the last time Miley faced the Pirates. I expect another big win in this one.
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League: MLB
Competition: Chicago Cubs(Sampson) vs Philadelphia Phillies(Gibson)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 07:05 pm ET
Bet Type: Moneyline
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -187
Analysis:
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Numerous advantages for the Phillies in this one. Gibson is 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his 11 "home" starts. His teams are 10-1 in those games. Last time here, he pitched six shutout innings. The Phillies won 7-0. Sampson only has a couple of starts under his belt this season. In those nine innings, he's given up three home runs. In fact, dating back to 2019, he's allowed at least a home run in seven straight games. A closer look reveals that in just a 34 1/3 inning span, he served up 12 long balls. Phillies are 8-2 as home favorites in the -175 to -250 range. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
League: MLB
Competition: Tampa Bay Rays(Rasmussen) vs Toronto Blue Jays(Berrios)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 07:07 pm ET
Bet Type: Over / Under
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Under 9 (-110)
Analysis:
I'm playing on Toronto/TB UNDER the total. Yes, the Blue Jay bats have been hot. Same for the Tampa bats, before yesterday. However, both starters are in excellent form and I'm expecting a pitcher's duel this evening. Berrios is 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP his past three starts. Over that 3-game span, he's struck out 26 while walking just two. Dominant numbers. Rasmussen doesn't go deep into games but he's also allowed one run or less in six straight starts. Over his past three starts, he's got a 1.93 ERA with 8 K's against just one walk. He hasn't allowed a HR in any of his past five starts either. Prior to yesterday's "push," the UNDER was a perfect 5-0 the past five times that these teams faced each other. Look for a low-scoring affair.
League: MLB
Competition: St. Louis Cardinals(Woodford) vs New York Mets(Stroman)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 07:10 pm ET
Bet Type: Moneyline
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: New York Mets -158 (5Dimes)
Analysis:
I'm playing on NY. After getting pounded yesterday, I expect the Mets to bounce back big tonight. Despite not having the wins to show for it, Stroman (2.87 ERA, 1.123 WHIP) just keeps delivering. Last time out, he allowed just one run, on only four hits, through 6 1/3 innings. He struck out seven without walking a batter. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven straight starts. He's also gone six or more innings in four of his past five. Stroman will finally get some support in this one. Woodford is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.833 WHIP his past three starts, averaging just four innings. Look for the Mets to bounce back and improve to 15-10 the past 25 times that they were off a shutout loss.
League: MLB
Competition: San Diego Padres(Arrieta) vs San Francisco Giants(DeSclafani)
Time: Tuesday, September 14, 09:45 pm ET
Bet Type: Run Line
Action or Listed Pitchers: Listed Pitchers
Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5 (-130)
Analysis:
I'm playing SD on the run-line (+1.5 runs) These teams are currently going in opposite directions and the Giants won big yesterday. However, despite all the losing, the Padres are still alive in the Wild Card race. That said, they desperately need to go on a run. After getting pounded yesterday, I expect a much better effort today. True, Arrieta has seen better days. He was relatively solid in his last start though and he knows his team desperately needs him tonight. He held high-scoring Houston to three runs, on only three hits and one walk. Desclafani has only gone more than five innings in one of his past seven starts. In fact, over that 7-game span, he's gone a total of 26 2/3 innings. That's less than four innings per start. The Padres are 8-6 their last 14, after losing their previous three or more games. Expect the bats to come alive and for them to bounce back with at least the "run-line cover."
