Matt Severance
ARIZONA @ TEXAS | 07/27 | 8:05 PM EDT
TEXAS -135
ANALYSIS: Not sure I've ever backed a team as a betting favorite on a 12-game losing streak, but there's a first for everything. To be fair to Texas, the past 10 of those losses have been on the road (they have led for one half-inning in that span) and the team has been pretty competitive this year at home. Pitcher Dane Dunning is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA at home and has a 2.89 ERA in his past four starts overall, three of them won by the Rangers. Only the Rockies have fewer road wins than the Diamondbacks, who are 0-7 this year vs. the American League.
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
UNDER 9
ANALYSIS: That Minnesota lineup is quite weak right now following the trade of Nelson Cruz and with some injuries, so hopefully Detroit lefty Tyler Alexander can keep it in check his one time through -- he's not really stretched out to go much further before turning it over to the bullpen. Twins pitcher Kenta Maeda has a 2.81 home ERA this year and 2.81 ERA vs. the Tigers, so I don't expect much offense from Detroit. The wind is blowing in a bit at Target Field, too, and Dan Bellino is considered an "Under" umpire. In games he has been behind the plate this year with a total of exactly 9, the Under is 3-0. The Under is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five at home.
CHI. WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY +1.5
ANALYSIS: This one entertains me because Chicago's Dylan Cease truly blows chunks on the road (6.27 ERA) and Kansas City's Brad Keller is craptastic at home (7.19 ERA). Keller is really odd. Here are his overall ERAs by month this year: 9.00 in April, 3.86 in May, 8.31 in June and 2.61 in July. It's even Keller's birthday today, and he has held the White Sox to two earned runs or fewer in eight of his career 12 starts against them. Cease, meanwhile, has a 6.00 ERA this month. The Royals are rolling on a six-game skid, so we'll take them at a very cheap home runline price of -120.
TORONTO @ BOSTON | 07/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO -130
ANALYSIS: Interesting lineup for Boston with All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts out again as Kike Hernandez is playing short, usual DH JD Martinez is in left field (and he's a defensive liability) and backup catcher Kevin Plawecki is at DH. Also, closer Matt Barnes surely isn't available after pitching the past two days. Thus, I'll lean the Jays behind Robbie Ray (8-5, 3.12). Boston's Garrett Richards has been significantly worse at Fenway (6.55 ERA). Toronto is 13-6 in its past 19 on the road vs. right-handers.
ST. LOUIS @ CLEVELAND | 07/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Cardinals are eight games under .500 on the road overall, 6-16 in their past 22 away and have won just four of their past 15 series openers yet favored. Hmmm. They do add the DH. It's Adam Wainwright for the Redbirds. His road ERA is 5.35. Cleveland is 4-1 in its past five at home vs. the NL and starts underrated Cal Quantrill (3.84 ERA). He is 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA this month. We'll take the soon-to-be Guardians (still can't believe they chose that name) on the runline.
ARIZONA @ TEXAS | 07/27 | 8:05 PM EDT
TEXAS -135
ANALYSIS: Not sure I've ever backed a team as a betting favorite on a 12-game losing streak, but there's a first for everything. To be fair to Texas, the past 10 of those losses have been on the road (they have led for one half-inning in that span) and the team has been pretty competitive this year at home. Pitcher Dane Dunning is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA at home and has a 2.89 ERA in his past four starts overall, three of them won by the Rangers. Only the Rockies have fewer road wins than the Diamondbacks, who are 0-7 this year vs. the American League.
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
UNDER 9
ANALYSIS: That Minnesota lineup is quite weak right now following the trade of Nelson Cruz and with some injuries, so hopefully Detroit lefty Tyler Alexander can keep it in check his one time through -- he's not really stretched out to go much further before turning it over to the bullpen. Twins pitcher Kenta Maeda has a 2.81 home ERA this year and 2.81 ERA vs. the Tigers, so I don't expect much offense from Detroit. The wind is blowing in a bit at Target Field, too, and Dan Bellino is considered an "Under" umpire. In games he has been behind the plate this year with a total of exactly 9, the Under is 3-0. The Under is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five at home.
CHI. WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY +1.5
ANALYSIS: This one entertains me because Chicago's Dylan Cease truly blows chunks on the road (6.27 ERA) and Kansas City's Brad Keller is craptastic at home (7.19 ERA). Keller is really odd. Here are his overall ERAs by month this year: 9.00 in April, 3.86 in May, 8.31 in June and 2.61 in July. It's even Keller's birthday today, and he has held the White Sox to two earned runs or fewer in eight of his career 12 starts against them. Cease, meanwhile, has a 6.00 ERA this month. The Royals are rolling on a six-game skid, so we'll take them at a very cheap home runline price of -120.
TORONTO @ BOSTON | 07/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO -130
ANALYSIS: Interesting lineup for Boston with All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts out again as Kike Hernandez is playing short, usual DH JD Martinez is in left field (and he's a defensive liability) and backup catcher Kevin Plawecki is at DH. Also, closer Matt Barnes surely isn't available after pitching the past two days. Thus, I'll lean the Jays behind Robbie Ray (8-5, 3.12). Boston's Garrett Richards has been significantly worse at Fenway (6.55 ERA). Toronto is 13-6 in its past 19 on the road vs. right-handers.
ST. LOUIS @ CLEVELAND | 07/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Cardinals are eight games under .500 on the road overall, 6-16 in their past 22 away and have won just four of their past 15 series openers yet favored. Hmmm. They do add the DH. It's Adam Wainwright for the Redbirds. His road ERA is 5.35. Cleveland is 4-1 in its past five at home vs. the NL and starts underrated Cal Quantrill (3.84 ERA). He is 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA this month. We'll take the soon-to-be Guardians (still can't believe they chose that name) on the runline.
FEATURED PICK
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO | 07/27 | 10:10 PM EDT
OAKLAND +143
ANALYSIS: Over Oakland’s last 30 games the A's are just 12-18. Monday’s day off was a chance for them to refocus. Though the Padres have played well at home (33-19), pitcher Chris Paddack has been a weak link; his home ERA is 6.94. I expect the A's to pounce on Paddack and hold on. Grab Oakland.
CHI. WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -145
ANALYSIS: The Royals thrived as home underdogs for the fourth straight day on Monday. On Tuesday look for the White Sox to settle back in and showcase why they are the top team in the AL Central, at 59-41. They’ve dominated the division and should have no issues halting the Royals' six-game winning streak, especially with Brad Keller (5.84 ERA) on the mound. Play the White Sox.
CINCINNATI @ CHI. CUBS | 07/27 | 8:05 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -180
ANALYSIS: On Monday, the Cubs inched closer to getting back to .500 with a walk-off win over the Reds. The come-from-behind victory should provide a big spark today for Adbert Alzolay, who has lacked run support. Over his last six starts the Cubs have averaged just 1.5 runs. That will change today with the Reds pen struggling and young starter Vladimir Gutierrez on the mound. Play Chicago.
CINCINNATI @ CHI. CUBS | 07/27 | 8:05 PM EDT
OVER 10.5
ANALYSIS: I'll take this one Over 10.5 runs runs at -105 on William Hill. It's a good price considering how strong of a hitting environment we are getting in Chicago. The wind is blowing out and the air density is going to be quite low (59 ADI) for what we normally see at Wrigley. This game features two shaky starters and bullpens that have been used heavily the last couple of nights. Cubs RHP Adbert Azolay is expected to be the better starter, given that they're favored, but the Reds hit right-handers well, owning the fifth-best wOBA against them this season.
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO | 07/27 | 10:10 PM EDT
OAKLAND +143
ANALYSIS: James Kaprielian has been very good this season and he has a 1.50 ERA in July. Chris Paddack has been all over the place this season and he has been much worse at home going 2-4 with a 6.94 ERA. The Athletics have lost three in a row but they are solid on the road. Both these teams have lost five of their last 10 games, take the value on the underdog.
HOUSTON @ SEATTLE | 07/27 | 10:10 PM EDT
SEATTLE +147
ANALYSIS: The Mariners will have the momentum after coming back from 7-0 down last night and winning. They are also much better at home this season at 33-21 and they have won four games in a row. Chris Flexen is 6-3 with a 1.89 ERA at home this season. Lance McCullers Jr. has walked at least two batters in every start he has made this season despite his low ERA. Take the value in the Mariners at home.
ST. LOUIS @ CLEVELAND | 07/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -121
ANALYSIS: This is the first game of an interesting interleague matchup. Cal Quantrill has been good recently but his underlying numbers are showing that he should regress soon. Adam Wainwright has been very good this season but the Cards bats are swinging well right now and they should only be helped by the DH. Take the Cards.
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 07/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +170
ANALYSIS: It is easy to see why the Twins are favored tonight with one of their best pitchers on the mound, but the Tigers are still 3.5 games ahead of the Twins in the division and the Twins just dealt their best hitter. The Tigers have lost six games in a row now but they went to extra innings last night before losing with two outs in the 10th. The Twins are worse against lefties and both these teams have seen the others starter at least three times this season. Take the value in the Tigers.
