Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Tuesday 8:05 PM MLB
(955) CINCINNATI REDS at (956) CHICAGO CUBS
Take: (956) CHICAGO CUBS +105
Quite the pitching duel at Wrigley Field on Monday, with Anthony Rizzo finally delivering the crucial blow in a 1-0 Cubs win. Runs could well be at a premium again this evening with a top quality matchup on the mound.
Johnny Cueto is in need of just two more wins to reach the coveted 20-win plateau. Cueto is in his typical outstanding form and there’s no doubt about it, betting against the Reds ace is not the easiest thing in the world to do. But Cueto draws a very tough adversary this evening as Jake Arrieta will be on the hill for the Cubs. Arrieta has enjoyed a true breakout season for the Cubs.
I guess it’s due to his only being 8-5 and pitching for a non-contender, but it’s kind of amazing to me how far under the radar Arrieta remains. Aside from one disastrous outing at Colorado and another really unfortunate one against these Reds, Arrieta has been pretty close to sensational for the Cubs. He’s a legit Top 20 pitcher this season on the metrics since earning a regular rotation spot.
Cueto has enjoyed a bit of good fortune with his BABIP but there’s no way to diminish how big he’s been for Cincinnati. I don’t see any question that he’s the Reds MVP and the guy simply knows how to win.
Not much to choose in other areas here. Offense and bullpen are pretty much a wash, although the Cubs now have a vital cog back in the lineup with the return of Rizzo.
For me, this comes down to Arrieta simply having metrics that are going to make him a value as a home dog against almost anyone, and that even includes the brilliant Cueto. This looms as a tight, low scoring game but my money is going on the Cubs as a home dog, and this play is already on my Tuesday ticket.