Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Tuesday 10:10 PM MLB
(919) TORONTO BLUE JAYS at (920) SEATTLE MARINERS
Take: (920) SEATTLE MARINERS -125
I’m very much into metrics-based analysis, particularly as far as starting pitching is concerned. Therefore it’s very rare that I’ll go against the numbers I focus the most attention on. But that’s exactly what I’ll be doing tonight as the Blue Jays look to even their series with the Mariners in Seattle.
The key for me tonight is more situational than anything else, especially as it pertains to Toronto lefty JA Happ. He’s off what was probably the single strongest outing of his entire major league career. In spite of the fact Happ was on the wrong end of a very tough 2-1 loss to the Orioles, he was absolutely dominant in that game. And there’s the rub. If there’s one consistency we’ve seen from Happ over the years, it’s his inconsistency. This is not a guy who strings together lengthy runs of quality starts, and I feel Happ could be in a huge bounce situation off two strong starts in succession, with the spectacular effort vs. the Birds the most recent.
Chris Young will throw for the hosts, and Young has been a metrics disaster all season. But he has continued to defy those numbers to the point that if any analyst is still insisting on trying to beat this guy, it has simply become an exercise in futility. Young has been particularly tough at Safeco, a ballpark that fits his tendencies to a tee. Young is as extreme fly ball as it gets, and at this site, that’s more an asset than a liability.
The Blue Jays got some regular some rest on Monday night. Jose Reyes didn’t play, and manager John Gibbons wisely removed Jose Bautista and Dioner Navarro once the game got out of hand. The Jays will also get Adam Lind back from the DL tonight, and that’s a definite boost to their attack. But the Mariners are a hot team right now, and they’re actually not bad offensively against lefties, and I would call the batting battle pretty much of a wash. No doubt where the bullpen edge lies, and that’s with the Seattle side.
It’s important for any analyst to remain flexible and that’s the case for me tonight. While I’m going to continue to put emphasis on the metrics when breaking down each game, if an exception to the rule matchup shows, I’m not going to bypass it by being stubborn. That being the case, I’m looking to side with the Mariners tonight.