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MLB tuesday thoughts
Cubs-Reds: Unless something changes on Monday – Hammel at -125 is probably as good as it’s going to get. I just cannot back the Red bullpen and the Cubs’ pen hasn’t been much to get behind, either. What would concern me if I had an inclination to back the Red (I don’t) is the fact that they’ve been playing in the heat and aside from Frazier, none of the Red starters have rested. After teams got a look at Iglesias, he’s given up five earned runs in his last two starts.
Dodgers-Braves: I actually thought, even given the Dodgers’ lack of any offensive consistency, that they’d be bigger favorites than they are. Anderson – from memory, is (was) ahead of all major league pitchers in terms of inducing ground ball outs – while Wood has a WHIP of nearly 1.70 at home, with two quality starts in six attempts. Add that to the fact that he beat LA in LA back in May – so there’s the revenge thing and the fact that they’ve seen him.
Miami-Arizona: For some reason I’ve always had a hard time getting behind Latos, and a harder one getting behind Hellickson. Miami saw Hellickson back in May so there’s at least some familiarity with a pitcher that spent considerable time in the AL. The Fish are only 1-5 in Latos’ road starts, but it’s been the lack of offense more than Latos that’s caused that, and his last seven starts he’s got a reasonable WHIP, but been burned by the long ball. I’m not sure that’s a chance I want to take in this park, so I may find a way to take Arizona.
Giants-Padres: Again, given the futility of San Diego this season and the fact that several Padres may not be Padres much longer (another reason to wait for lineups) I found Heston -120 to be quite reasonable. Despaigne has indeed been better at home, but better than “not very good” isn’t good enough for me. He and the Padres beat the Giants in San Francisco (Bumgarner, 3-2) on June 23rd so I doubt that happens again. However, liking thee road favorites gives me pause.
Orioles-Yankees: They seem to be asking for people to bet the Yankees at only -120 at home – so my first thought would be to find a reason not to. What I did find interesting is that Chen’s last 11 games have all ended with 7 runs or less, most considerably less. The last time a game involving Chen went over 7 runs – against the Yankees when the Orioles beat Whitley 6-2 in New York. An earlier game against New York, 11 runs against Pineda. Eovaldi has been better at home, but not that great lately – and hasn’t been pitching deep. I do like the O’s pen better, so leaning to yet another road team.
Seattle-Detroit: Walker is getting all the attention lately, and perhaps rightfully so since the Mariners are 6-1 in his last 7 starts and his WHIP over that period is a “Cy Young-Like” 1.105. That’s tough to bet against, even considering the thought of getting Detroit as a home underdog is also tempting. However, as I have said to many people – I will not bet on the Tigers for a full game with their complete lack of a bullpen. The flip side of that is that Detroit just scored some runs off of home in Seattle (but naturally gave up more than they scored). Greene has thrown a total of about 14 innings in two months – and not well. That total already opened at 9 O (-120) so someone has already done their homework.
Boston-Houston: I wouldn’t rule out taking Boston and Brian Johnson, at least for the first five innings. He was a first round draft pick which tells you something, and yes, it’s his major league debut. He’s got a 2.74 ERA at Pawtucket and holds batters to a .217 batting average against. Obviously Houston hasn’t seen him so I wouldn’t be eager to jump on the Astros here, even after the double headed in Anaheim for Boston. Velasquez isn’t anything to put money behind IMO and in fact he has sucked at times, with a 5.71 ERA at home. He did pitch well last time out against Kluber and the Indians, but this game isn’t a slam dunk either way. Maybe under F5 because of complete lack of familiarity.
Toronto-Oakland: Buehrle has been on the uptick lately, and his WHIP over the last seven starts is 0.939 – it just doesn’t get much better than that. He hasn’t faced the A’s yet this year, and the A’s are 7-17 against left handed starters this season. That’s almost enough to back the Jays right there. However, since April Graveman has really only had one start that wasn’t solid, the last one at Cleveland, and he CAN strike people out. The big park could be a detriment to Toronto, and this game should stay under – the winner could well be the one with the better bullpen, and Oakland’s has come around a bit lately. The Jays weren’t hitting against the Rays, either, so be careful with Toronto, IMO.
Twins-Angels: Obvious first test here is the fact that Minnesota had Monday off while the Angels are playing two. That could give some value to Gibson, who I do like. The Twins were massacred by Oakland, and I am not sure having the extra day off to think about that is a good thing. Gibson is deceptively decent, only giving up more than three earned runs twice since April, never in over a month, and his numbers are better on the road. Shoemaker always scares me, but he has kept the ball in the park since we lost on him in May at Toronto. What’s surprising is that the Angels are 1-7 in his home starts and 7-1 in his road starts, so we could use that one of two ways. More work to be done here, but I wouldn’t rule out the Twins, and perhaps the RL in what could be a low scoring game.
