Dave Cokin
Tuesday Bonus Play
MLB (927) MINNESOTA TWINS (928) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Take: (927) MINNESOTA TWINS +140
When I take my chances with generously priced underdogs on the diamond, it’s often a case of playing more against the favorite than actually liking the dog. That’s precisely the situation tonight as the Twins open a series in Milwaukee against the Brewers.
The Brewers are enjoying a banner start to the 2014 season. They’re putting themselves in position to be legitimate contenders for a playoff spot, and there’s a growing expectation this team will be in buy mode as the trade deadline approaches. But it should be noted that there has been some good fortune for the Brewers. They’re doing very well in close games, and I think it’s fair to say they’re getting a bit more than expected from several players on the current big league roster.
One player who is not delivering the goods lately is pitcher Yovani Gallardo. The veteran righty came roaring out of the starting gate with back to back scoreless starts, and he never surrendered more than two runs in any of his first five outings. But Gallardo has been scuffling ever since and has now gone six straight starts where he’s allowed at least three runs each time. Gallardo hadn’t been getting annihilated, but he’s sure not sizzling and there are red flags galore in plain view right now.
The two big issues for Gallardo of late have been walks and the home run ball. The latter can be somewhat random and is tough to predict. But the BB’s are more alarming to me. Gallardo is not a power pitcher anymore. He now relies more on a two-seam fastball that’s designed to induce ground balls. That’s a good game plan, but what’s happening right now is that hitters are laying off that pitch and forcing Gallardo more up in the zone than is desired. The results have been more costly mistakes and simply stated, that’s bad news for a pitcher who doesn’t have blow away stuff anymore. Gallardo could well adjust to what’s happening and turn things back in the right direction. But right now he’s pretty hittable and that makes him a risky proposition as good sized chalk.
Samuel Deduno is similar to Gallardo in that he needs to pitch to contact low in the zone and get lots of ground ball to be successful. Deduno relies on a cutter as his main offering. and tries to limit his four-seam fastball attempts. This is not a high ceiling pitcher. The hope for Deduno is generally going to be six innings, two or three runs and a chance for his team to win the game. He’s been doing a decent job lately and I’ll hope that he can do so again this evening.
The Brewers clearly rate the favorite’s role tonight, but I’m looking at the value being on the underdog side. The Milwaukee offense is not as explosive vs. righties and in fact Minnesota is actually slightly superior in that category on the season, although the more recent numbers would tilt to the Brewers. As this is likely to be a bullpen game for the last three innings or so, I like the fact that the visitors actually have a small advantage on those numbers.
But the main thrust here is an attempt to cash in against Gallardo, who looks to me to be a shade overpriced here. I made this line Brewers -130 neighborhood and when I can get a couple dimes the best of it, I’m generally willing to test the waters if there are no mitigating circumstances. That being the case, I’ll take the underdog plunge tonight with the Twins
Tuesday Bonus Play
MLB (927) MINNESOTA TWINS (928) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Take: (927) MINNESOTA TWINS +140
When I take my chances with generously priced underdogs on the diamond, it’s often a case of playing more against the favorite than actually liking the dog. That’s precisely the situation tonight as the Twins open a series in Milwaukee against the Brewers.
The Brewers are enjoying a banner start to the 2014 season. They’re putting themselves in position to be legitimate contenders for a playoff spot, and there’s a growing expectation this team will be in buy mode as the trade deadline approaches. But it should be noted that there has been some good fortune for the Brewers. They’re doing very well in close games, and I think it’s fair to say they’re getting a bit more than expected from several players on the current big league roster.
One player who is not delivering the goods lately is pitcher Yovani Gallardo. The veteran righty came roaring out of the starting gate with back to back scoreless starts, and he never surrendered more than two runs in any of his first five outings. But Gallardo has been scuffling ever since and has now gone six straight starts where he’s allowed at least three runs each time. Gallardo hadn’t been getting annihilated, but he’s sure not sizzling and there are red flags galore in plain view right now.
The two big issues for Gallardo of late have been walks and the home run ball. The latter can be somewhat random and is tough to predict. But the BB’s are more alarming to me. Gallardo is not a power pitcher anymore. He now relies more on a two-seam fastball that’s designed to induce ground balls. That’s a good game plan, but what’s happening right now is that hitters are laying off that pitch and forcing Gallardo more up in the zone than is desired. The results have been more costly mistakes and simply stated, that’s bad news for a pitcher who doesn’t have blow away stuff anymore. Gallardo could well adjust to what’s happening and turn things back in the right direction. But right now he’s pretty hittable and that makes him a risky proposition as good sized chalk.
Samuel Deduno is similar to Gallardo in that he needs to pitch to contact low in the zone and get lots of ground ball to be successful. Deduno relies on a cutter as his main offering. and tries to limit his four-seam fastball attempts. This is not a high ceiling pitcher. The hope for Deduno is generally going to be six innings, two or three runs and a chance for his team to win the game. He’s been doing a decent job lately and I’ll hope that he can do so again this evening.
The Brewers clearly rate the favorite’s role tonight, but I’m looking at the value being on the underdog side. The Milwaukee offense is not as explosive vs. righties and in fact Minnesota is actually slightly superior in that category on the season, although the more recent numbers would tilt to the Brewers. As this is likely to be a bullpen game for the last three innings or so, I like the fact that the visitors actually have a small advantage on those numbers.
But the main thrust here is an attempt to cash in against Gallardo, who looks to me to be a shade overpriced here. I made this line Brewers -130 neighborhood and when I can get a couple dimes the best of it, I’m generally willing to test the waters if there are no mitigating circumstances. That being the case, I’ll take the underdog plunge tonight with the Twins
Jim Feist
MLB Comp Pick for Tuesday, June 3, 2014: 8:05 PM EST
(917) BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS (918) TEXAS RANGERS
Take: (917) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Reason: Your free pick for Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014, comes in American League action as the Orioles and Rangers meet at the Ballpark in Arlington, Texas. Baltimore has a better road record than Texas has at home. This is a great offensive park and Baltimore brings a good offensive into town, 15th in runs scored, 10th in slugging and 6th in batting average. The Orioles are 38-15 in their last 53 games following an off day. Baltimore righty Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed just 61 hits in 62 innings and has 59 strikeouts. Jimenez pitched six strong innings at Houston on Thursday, allowing just one run and three hits. He did not factor in the decision though, striking out eight. The Rangers are 4-10 in their last 14 home games. Texas has been outscored by 23 runs this season while battling injuries. Starter Joe Saunders has been bad in limited action, allowing 16 base runners in 8+ innings -- and both starts were on the road. The Rangers are 5-13 in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 2-8 in their last 10 games following an off day. In addition, the Orioles are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings, including 4-0 here in Texas. Play the Orioles
MLB Comp Pick for Tuesday, June 3, 2014: 8:05 PM EST
(917) BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS (918) TEXAS RANGERS
Take: (917) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Reason: Your free pick for Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014, comes in American League action as the Orioles and Rangers meet at the Ballpark in Arlington, Texas. Baltimore has a better road record than Texas has at home. This is a great offensive park and Baltimore brings a good offensive into town, 15th in runs scored, 10th in slugging and 6th in batting average. The Orioles are 38-15 in their last 53 games following an off day. Baltimore righty Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed just 61 hits in 62 innings and has 59 strikeouts. Jimenez pitched six strong innings at Houston on Thursday, allowing just one run and three hits. He did not factor in the decision though, striking out eight. The Rangers are 4-10 in their last 14 home games. Texas has been outscored by 23 runs this season while battling injuries. Starter Joe Saunders has been bad in limited action, allowing 16 base runners in 8+ innings -- and both starts were on the road. The Rangers are 5-13 in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 2-8 in their last 10 games following an off day. In addition, the Orioles are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings, including 4-0 here in Texas. Play the Orioles
WNBA
Tuesday, June 3
Trend Report
7:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. ATLANTA
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Los Angeles is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
10:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. PHOENIX
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Seattle
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Tuesday, June 3
Trend Report
7:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. ATLANTA
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Los Angeles is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
10:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. PHOENIX
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Seattle
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Jimmy Boyd
MLB
Play: Cardinals -121
like the value with St Louis as a small home favorite. The Cardinals are due for an offensive explosion after getting shutout in their last two games and given how Kansas City's James Shields has been throwing of late, I like their chances. Shields has an ugly 5.85 ERA and 1.450 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are always a strong team to back at home and off a loss. St Louis is 41-20 in their last 61 home games and 36-15 in their last 51 games following a loss. The Cardinals slumping offense can make it difficult to back them, but they are 19-3 in their last 22 home games after posting an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games. St Louis will be sending out veteran lefty Jaime Garcia, who has pitched well in his 3 starts since returning to the rotation. After giving up 4 earned runs in his season debut, Garcia has allowed 3 earned runs or less in his last two and comes into tonight's game with an impressive 0.813 WHIP. The Cardinals are 14-6 in Garcia's last 20 home starts when listed as a favorite of -110 to -150, 4-1 in his last 5 starts against a team with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game.
MLB
Play: Cardinals -121
like the value with St Louis as a small home favorite. The Cardinals are due for an offensive explosion after getting shutout in their last two games and given how Kansas City's James Shields has been throwing of late, I like their chances. Shields has an ugly 5.85 ERA and 1.450 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are always a strong team to back at home and off a loss. St Louis is 41-20 in their last 61 home games and 36-15 in their last 51 games following a loss. The Cardinals slumping offense can make it difficult to back them, but they are 19-3 in their last 22 home games after posting an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games. St Louis will be sending out veteran lefty Jaime Garcia, who has pitched well in his 3 starts since returning to the rotation. After giving up 4 earned runs in his season debut, Garcia has allowed 3 earned runs or less in his last two and comes into tonight's game with an impressive 0.813 WHIP. The Cardinals are 14-6 in Garcia's last 20 home starts when listed as a favorite of -110 to -150, 4-1 in his last 5 starts against a team with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game.
