SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND +104 over L.A. Angels
Every April, a temptation arises to declare the onrushing season The Year. This will be The Year that the Angels either break through and make good on the fact that they have Mike Trout, or collapse, crater, and are forced to trade Trout in order to kick start a rebuild. For five full seasons now, the best player of the 21st century has worn an Angels’ uniform and they have only one (brief) playoff appearance to show for it. There will always be supreme, brilliant, superstar players—guys clearly headed to the Hall of Fame before they even turn 30—who nonetheless fall into a rut and play mostly for forgettable (if not always bad) teams throughout their best seasons. No, 2017 will not make or break the Mike Trout era in Anaheim. It will just bring it 25 percent closer to being over (or at least possibly over). That’s why general manager Billy Eppler didn’t decide to rebuild around Trout over the offseason, so much as to reload around him. The last two winters have seen the Angels trade for Yunel Escobar, Andrelton Simmons, Cameron Maybin, and Danny Espinosa, all at deep discounts. Each player was unwanted by their former team, with pressing concerns about character, money, and/or in-house logjams forcing the issue. The clock is ticking, but as long as Trout is still around, the Angels are going to win a bunch of games. Eppler’s offseason is a testament to the value of Trout. He makes even marginal players into winning pieces. That Eppler worked so hard to give him a few more of them is commendable but c’mon now, L.A.’s opening day starter was Ricky Nolasco and today’s starter is Matt Shoemaker.
After a rough April, a newfound reliance on a split-finger saved Shoemaker’s season. From May 21st to his final start of the year, Shoemaker posted a 2.83 ERA in 130 innings covering 20 starts. His skills, particularly his K-rate tailed off a bit after June, but his first pitch strike rate speaks to his resilience of control and his swing and miss rate raises hopes that his strikeout rate could rebound as well. However, a September skull fracture on a comebacker adds uncertainty and Shoemaker has traditionally been a slow starter. Aside from that, Shoemaker is the second best pitcher here and this one is more about getting behind Oakland’s Sean Manaea before his stock skyrockets.
Manaea went 7-9 with a 3.86 ERA in 145 innings for the A’s last year but there was a lot to like from his debut: Manaea had elite command especially in the 2nd half and it’s supported by his outstanding first-pitch strike rate. Manaea’s swing and miss rate also suggests some more K-rate upside. His groundball rate got progressively better too as the season went on. 17 of the 20 HR’s that he gave up were against righties though hr/f suggests bad luck played a role. Sean Manaea is high on our radar as another excellent breakout target. Few pitchers were better than Manaea in the second half of 2016. His 2H command sub-indicators were firmly elite (13% swing and miss rate, 35% ball%). He was filthy against LH bats but also quite good against opposite-sided batters too. Sean Manaea is poised to take a major step up so the time to buy low on him would be now.
ARIZONA +135 over San Francisco
Johnny Cueto is solid. On most staffs he would be the rotation anchor but on the Giants he’s #2 behind Madison Bumgarner. Cueto had a nice rebound last year from his 2015 second-half swoon. He threw fewer four-seamers and more off-speed stuff, and the result was a career-best first-pitch strike rate and command, plus a nice groundball improvement. Despite nagging injuries, Cueto keeps taking the post and he could easily be considered among the elite. That said, we’re here to find some value in underpriced pitchers and in that regard, Patrick Corbin has the potential to match Cueto pitch-for-pitch if all things are right. Should Corbin hang in and this one goes to the pens, the value on the Diamondbacks increase.
Corbin went 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA last season over 160 innings. He made 24 starts and 12 relief appearances and never quite got on track until later in the year. Although Corbin’ skills were better than that 5-plus ERA, he was still a big disappointment as a starter. Corbin moved to the bullpen in September and suddenly was terrific with 10.2 K’s/9 and two mph more on his fastball. Of course, that calls his 2017 role into question but what we know for sure is that he’s happier being a starter and is coming off a terrific spring. Corbin is feeling great. He pitched back-to-back five inning starts to close out the spring against Texas and Cleveland and allowed just five hits and two runs over those 10 innings. He also struck out eight and didn’t walk a single batter. Let’s not forget that Corbin had a 1½-year layoff after Tommy John surgery back in 2014 and was once a highly touted prospect. He had a breakout campaign in 2013 and could be one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game to begin this season. At this price, at home, Corbin is 100% worth a wager because most folks will see those 2016 numbers and stay clear but we see him coming on big time and ready to thrive again.
