Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Tuesday
973 PIRATES (Nicasio) at TIGERS (Sanchez) 1:10 PM
Take: Pittsburgh Pirates +125
Spring stats should always be taken with a substantial grain of salt. Spring stuff can be a great barometer of things to come, however. I’m adhering to that theory today as Juan Nicasio take the mound for the Pirates.
Nicasio has been sensational from the opening of the exhibition season, and I don’t think it’s a fluke. He’s always had the big arm and dynamic stuff. But Nicasio’s command lapses have gotten him into deep water in the past, and he’d pretty much gone from prospect to just a guy in the past few years.
Getting together with Pittsburgh pitching guru Ray Searage has evidently turned the tide for the hard throwing righty. Nicasio was lights out during the spring games and his first official start as a member of the Pirates was more than impressive. The key is a killer slider that Nicasio is locating extremely well. Combine that with a fastball that averages about 95 MPH, but that Nicasio can add and subtract on seemingly at will, and this is one nasty looking pitcher right now.
Anibal Sanchez is looking to rebound from a tough 2015. I gave Sanchez a passing grade for his first 2016 start, but there were some red flags. First off, his command was shaky and that spiked his pitch count to some extent. Sanchez worked into the sixth inning but was at 89 pitches when he was removed. Perhaps more notable was the diminished velocity, though. The Sanchez fastball was a career low on average. I also didn’t like the high line drive rate on balls in play.
I’ve got to give Nicasio a decent edge on the mound today. As far as the late inning pitching is concerned, Tony Watson has worked two straight days for the Bucs, but didn’t trow that many pitches and closer Mark Melancon had a cinch nine-pitch save on Monday night. Assuming both are therefore available, Pittsburgh has an advantage down the stretch if this is close at the finish line.
I’m not suggesting this will be an easy winner, but I did think it was a relatively easy call to make, and my ticket will be on the Pirates in this game.