Tuesday 3/31/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 2:19pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,800 Class Rating: 63

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 ROI SOLEIL (ML=2/1)


ROI SOLEIL - Looking at the past performances on all of these horses, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long look at this thoroughbred. Stevens was aboard this gelding last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Earnings per start (EPS) is something that I believe can be a crucial handicapping aspect. This horse is ranked the highest in this field. Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a nice outing in the last race within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BARNYARD BULLY (ML=5/2), #3 DISTORTED SHIMMER (ML=3/1), #5 PIPER'S PURSE (ML=6/1),

BARNYARD BULLY - 5/2 odds isn't enough for this one when looking at the most recent efforts. DISTORTED SHIMMER - Tough to like the downward flow (46/27/23) of Equibase speed figures. This gelding finished out of the top three on January 21st and wasn't near the winner last time around the track either. PIPER'S PURSE - I'm forecasting a less than stellar attempt out of him this time out.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #1 ROI SOLEIL on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #3 - Post: 7:44pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,500 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 BEAR O (ML=3/1)


BEAR O - This gelding is in top form right now. Ended up first last time around the track and comes back promptly. The jockey and conditioner combination here have a high winning percent when they team up. Trainer, Radosevich, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FIRE HOUSE BLITZ (ML=9/5), #2 AMBER SUNRISE (ML=2/1), #5 AUTOMATIC JAX (ML=9/2),

FIRE HOUSE BLITZ - Don't think this questionable contender is worth 9/5 in this event. AMBER SUNRISE - This racer hasn't shown very much in the last pair of affairs. Hard to bet on a pony that lays up for a long time then doesn't hit the board off the extended rest time. AUTOMATIC JAX - Wraps were added last time out. Doesn't bode well for today's event. Don't think this steed will do much running in today's race. That last speed rating was disappointing when compared with today's class figure.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 BEAR O to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with 5

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Valuline at Will Rogers Downs

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Will Rogers Downs, Race 3 (Tuesday March 31, 2015)

WILL'S MONEY

WRD-3 1mile DIRT Seven Horses

"A" MCL 7,500 F/M 3YUP $7,800

P# ex q p3 t s ML WP TVL

7 WILL'S MONEY 6/5 50% 1/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Tuesday 3/31 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 93 - 273 / $466.90 BEST BETS: 12 - 23 / $41.60

Best Bet: VEGLIANTINO (2nd)

Spot Play: MAKES ME STUPID (4th)


Race 1

(1) WACO BRUISER has been racing much better of late, including last out in a seemingly unnecessary qualifier; he should be in line for a live trip from this spot. (3) BULLSEYE was overmatched in the Sagamore but was a winner at this level three back. (5) ARDIE B SPEED raced well in his first start off the shelf.

Race 2

(3) VEGLIANTINO hasn't put in a bad effort in ages and she clearly looks like the one to beat. (6) MUSCLESPRINCTONIAN looks for two straight and three of four for the live Buter barn. (1) ADRENALIN JUNKIE needs to stay flat, but the ability is there.

Race 3

(4) DINNER GUEST had a tough trip to overcome last out and understandably gave way; he drops in class today right into the winning spot. (2) CEE PEE PANIC raced willingly over at Pocono, his first seasonal start. Note he was facing better when seen here last year. (3) CARMENS BEST drops off a good effort and he should be right there late.

Race 4

(3) MAKES ME STUPID had good speed at both ends two back then was stuck with a second-tier getaway up at Saratoga; with nose on gate today he should head to the front. (6) ROCK FAME beat the top choice two back then was too far back to threaten last week; Dube is back aboard. (8) CARRACCI HANOVER may be done in by the eight hole; will Lachance be aggressive early?

Race 5

(4) DONT TELL WAYNE has been razor-sharp in three seasonal efforts and he deserves a serious look at what could be the best price of the contenders. (2) BLACKTREE has speed and a better draw; threat to go all the way. (3) COMPANY MAN stopped on the lead for no apparent reason last week; prior efforts were decent.

Race 6

(5) BETTOREVER has looked super in the series so far for the Bamond barn, including last week's big eight hole win; he lands a decent enough post here and deserves top billing in a competitive Sagamore final. (2A) FORT KNOX is one half of a solid entry from Sabot but they both draw poorly; well-bred horse has the ability to overcome the eight hole. (3) REDISCOVERY draws best for Brennan/Burke and clearly is a contender.

Race 7

(10) LENNY MAC has been good in recent efforts, including an off the pace rally last out; she's sharp and is capable with a trip. (12) KEENAN drops in class but with little current form. (8) STONEBRIDGE IDOL returns at a reduced level off a blowout win and he'll be a price from this post.

Race 8

(2) MOVEMENT broke before the start last out and obviously lost all chance; prior efforts were good and she fits well with this kind. (11) MARQUESAS is also a good fit at this basement level and Tetrick drives for DiDomenico. (12) SUN OF A VICTORY lasted gamely for a share of the top prize after cutting the mile last out; it will be tough hitting the lead from this second tier start, however.

Race 9

(8) LADY CATERINA went evenly at Pocono in her first trip of the season, obviously a needed start. Filly has stakes experience and should be leaving hard for her best chance. (4) BATTLE MAGE is another filly making her seasonal debut off a decent morning effort. (6) NUTMEGS DANCER was well meant in his last local appearance but hung late. He followed that up with a sharp win at Pocono; big threat.

Race 10

(4) ORANGE BIGI tried to brush last week but the driver seemed to get a bit indecisive and she broke. Veteran gets Brennan in the bike today. (10) SCHLIM SCHLAMMA has been making live moves of late and she always offers a price. (3) ROYAL MALINDA drops in class and will likely be part of the early pace.

Race 11

(3) FITNESS CRAZE gave way pretty badly last out but these connections have been sharp with their trotters and I like having Dube in the bike. (4) WINWOOD SCOUT has won four in a row, all for different barns. Can he be alive for five? (5) CANBEC FRIDOLIN was good once upon a time and he does debut for new connections which could perk him up.

Race 12

(3) SANDESTIN HANOVER really has done little wrong in his three starts since shipping cross country for Sabot; gelding should be aggressively handled from this spot. (2) POP COP showed some signs of life last out and now drops in class. (6) PIERCE has raced really well in his last four efforts and he'll be a good price again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Stackedndelivered, 5-1
(4th) Air Baca, 9-2


Mountaineer (3rd) Bear O, 3-1
(9th) Kudzu Dance, 4-1


Parx Racing (1st) Hi Ho Bambino, 3-1
(9th) Simone Templar, 7-2


Turf Paradise (4th) Bella Luz, 3-1
(8th) Delta Bravo, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 63 Preview

Event: UFC Fight Night 63
Date: Saturday, Apr. 4, 2015
TV/Time: FS1, 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Patriot Center
City: Fairfax, Virginia

Featherweight Bout: Chad Mendes (16-2-0) vs. Ricardo Lamas (15-3-0)

Line: Mendes -500 Lamas +375

Chad “Money” Mendes looks to shake off another failed attempt at grabbing the featherweight belt when he takes on Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas at UFC Fight Night 63.

Mendes has had no issues beating all of his opponents, besides one, Jose Aldo, who has given him both his losses in title fights. Most recently he took on Aldo in another attempt at the belt and the battle lasted the entire five rounds before Mendes lost by decision in what was a very tight fight; eventually being named the fight of the year. Besides Aldo, Mendes has come away victorious in his other 16 fights, getting most of his wins by decision (8), grabbing another six by knockout and also has two by submission. He has leaned more towards the knockout lately, with punches being the end of his opponent in four of his past five wins; doing so in the first round three times.

Lamas should be a strong competitor in this one as the former wrestler and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter has won in six of his past seven times in the octagon with the only loss coming at the hands of Jose Aldo. The loss to Aldo was for the featherweight title back in February of last year and since then he has fought twice, earning two victories, one by unanimous decision and most recently by submission (guillotine choke) against Dennis Bermudez at UFC 180. The recent submission was his fourth win by that approach as he primarily has won in a decision (7) and also owns four career knockouts.

Mendes has been borderline dominant in his career if it weren’t for Aldo giving him the two losses in title fights and he lands 2.54 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 47%. He is a master of the takedown, though, getting 4.18 every 15 minutes and had seven in his last win over Nik Lentz. “Money” actually landed a better percentage of his significant strikes when he fought Aldo back in October, but just took on a barrage of hits, getting 80 blows to the head compared to the 50 that he dished out.

Where Mendes typically wins fights is with defense as he deflects 70% of significant strikes attempted by his opponent and parlays that into his signature takedowns. He also does not allow the opposition to put him on the mat as no fighter he has faced has successfully completed a takedown against him. Mendes will certainly have the advantage in this aspect and will just need to keep putting Lamas on the ground until he can finish him off.

Lamas is a similar offensive fighter to his opponent in this one as he lands 2.31 significant strikes per minute on a much lower accuracy (39%). He also struggles with the takedowns compared to Mendes and gets opponents on the mat an average of 1.72 times per 15 minutes in the octagon. One advantage that could certainly work out for him if the cards fall into place is his ability to get a submission as he has won via this tactic twice in the past six fights and has averaged 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

What may prove to be his demise is his defense, and while he still is able to deflect 61% of significant strikes, he only manages to defend against the takedown 48% of the time, and against a fighter like Mendes, he will need to do this a ton in a five-round match if it goes the distance. This will be a tough matchup for Lamas to win given that he has a disadvantage in nearly every aspect of the fight, but if he can somehow become the first person to get Mendes on the mat, it could be an upset win.

Other UFC Fight Night 63 Bouts

Middleweight Bout
Justin Jones -145
Ron Stallings +115

Heavyweight Bout
Shamil Abdurahimov -285
Timothy Johnson +220

Lightweight Bout
Alexander Yakovlev -145
Gray Maynard +115

Womens Bantamweight Bout
Liz Carmouche -125
Lauren Murphy -105

Lightweight Bout
Dustin Poirier -195
Carlos Diego Ferreira +160

Featherweight Bout
Clay Guida -275
Robbie Peralta +215

Womens Bantamweight
Julianna Pena -300
Milana Dudieva +235

Lightweight Bout
Michael Chiesa -350
Mitch Clarke +270

Lightweight Bout
Jorge Masvidal -130
Al Iaquinta --Even

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Warriors (60-13) at Clippers (49-25)

Date: March 31, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

With everything sewn up except the NBA's best overall record, the Golden State Warriors would love nothing more than to end a heated rival's seven-game winning streak.

In a potential second-round playoff preview Tuesday night, the Warriors will try to extend the league's longest current run to 10 and snap a four-game road skid against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Golden State (60-13), which had already clinched the Pacific Division, locked up the top seed in the Western Conference and set a franchise record for victories with Saturday's 108-95 win at Milwaukee.

The Warriors aren't showing signs of letting up, winning by an average of 18.3 points on their best streak since a 16-game tear Nov. 13-Dec. 14. They lead East-best Atlanta by 4 1/2 games with nine left in the race for home-court advantage throughout the postseason.

"We still have a lot of work to do and we still have goals to accomplish," said guard Klay Thompson, who had 21 points.

While coach Steve Kerr hasn't made a habit of resting players, he sat forwards Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala on Saturday. However, it might be difficult to rest more in a matchup between two of the league's hottest teams.

The Clippers (49-25) have been on a roll since Blake Griffin (elbow surgery) returned from a 15-game absence, winning their last seven by an average of 14.9 points for their second-longest streak of the season.

J.J. Redick led the way with 27 points and went 5 for 6 from 3-point range, while Griffin and Chris Paul added 21 apiece in Sunday's 119-106 win at Boston. Griffin was sore after taking a shot to his elbow, but isn't expected to miss any time.

Paul has averaged 23.3 points and 11.7 assists over the past six to help the surging Clippers - currently fifth in the West - move within one game of third-place Memphis.

"We've been playing with a good rhythm, going back home now," Paul told the team's official website. "We need to win worse than (the Warriors) do."

There has been tension between the clubs since the Clippers won a physical seven-game series in the first round of last year's playoffs. After dropping the last three at Staples Center in that series, Golden State has lost 11 of 14 there.

The Warriors went 6 of 28 from 3-point range in a 100-86 loss in Los Angeles on Christmas Day. However, they've gone a combined 25 for 47 from beyond the arc in winning twice at home, 121-104 on Nov. 5 and 106-98 on March 8.

"(Kerr) told me he didn't like me," Clippers coach Doc Rivers joked after the last meeting. "We're the last team to knock them out, and they know that.

"So I think that adds to it."

Golden State averages league highs of 109.8 points and 47.8 percent shooting, while Los Angeles is second with 106.6 and 47.3. The Warriors also shoot an NBA-best 39.7 percent from 3-point range and the Clippers are third at 37.5.

Stephen Curry has hit 24 of 38 while scoring 30.0 per game over his past four. The MVP candidate, though, has totaled 26 on 8-of-21 shooting in his last two against Los Angeles.

Jamal Crawford was the Clippers' leading scorer in their first two matchups, but he's likely out due to a deep calf bruise. Austin Rivers stepped up with a team-high 22 points while Griffin was sidelined earlier this month.

"We want to go out there and compete, because they're the team to beat," forward Glen Davis said of the Warriors. "We've got to go through them on the West side."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spring time for NBA betting means massive pointspreads
By JASON LOGAN

Spring has sprung in the NBA, which means basketball bettors are dealing with a rise in massive pointspreads.

With some teams going all out for a place in the postseason and others folding up the tents on a disappointing year, the spreads can get out of hand when these teams cross paths in a mismatch of motivation.

NBA bettors have already tangled with some big piles of chalk this month. There have been six games in March with spreads of 15 points or higher, most recently the Cleveland Cavaliers were pegged as 17-point favorites hosting the Philadelphia 76ers Sunday. And earlier this month, the Golden State Warriors were 19.5-point home favorites to the New York Knicks – which tied for the third-biggest NBA spread in the past five seasons.

March and April have birthed five of the six biggest spreads in that five-season span, topped by the Oklahoma City Thunder giving the Philadelphia 76ers 21 points in a March 4 meeting last year. And of the 100 games with spreads of 15 points or more since 2010-11, 49 have come in the final two months of the regular season.

So what’s a basketball bettor to do with all those points come spring? Overall, NBA favorites of 15 points or more are a pretty even 50-48-2 ATS since the 2010-11 season (97-3 SU). And narrowing that field to the final two months of the regular season gives a 27-22 ATS mark to the chalk (55 percent). April, however, has been the best for these big faves, who have gone 7-4 ATS (64 percent) in that five-season stretch.

The bigger the spread the bigger the payout, at least that’s the case looking at NBA favorites of 19.5 points or more, which are a perfect 5-0 ATS. Open that window to 17 points or higher, and favorites have gone 14-11-1 ATS (56 percent). And looking at faves between 15 and 16.5 points, the chalk is actually a slight loser at 36-37-1 ATS (49 percent).

Only a select few NBA teams will actually garner spreads this high in the closing weeks of the NBA schedule. The Warriors have already been set as favorites of 15 or more points nine times this season, with a 3-5-1 ATS mark. Home dates with Minnesota and Denver before the end of the year could add to that record.

The Cavaliers are 1-2 ATS in their three games as 15-plus chalk. The Atlanta Hawks are 0-2 ATS in their pair of games as 16 and 17.5-point favorites. And the Los Angeles Clippers are a perfect 4-0 ATS when giving 15 points or more in 2014-15.

For the 2014-15 season, favorites of 15 points or greater are just 11-12-2 ATS. Looking back over the past five NBA schedules, 52 of the 100 games with closing spreads of 15 points or more have come in the past two seasons, a testament to how parity is dwindling in the NBA. Those favorites are 25-25-2 ATS in that two-season span.

Bonus note: For those who like to parlay big favorites and the Over, with the thinking that they’ll need to score a lot of points to cover the spread, the 50 favorites of 15 points or more that covered the spread are just 23-27 Over/Under in those games. Overall, games involving a spread of 15 points or more are 45-54-1 Over/Under since the 2010-11 season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Game of the Day: Warriors at Clippers

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (+1, 214)

The Golden State Warriors have accomplished nearly everything they want in the regular season and can spend the last two weeks resting up for the playoffs. The Los Angeles Clippers, who host the Warriors on Tuesday, are still fighting for positioning in the Western Conference and are looking like a legitimate championship contender of late. The Clippers (seven straight) and Golden State (nine in a row) enter with the two longest active winning streaks in the NBA.

Los Angeles finished up a three-game road trip with a dominating performance in Boston on Sunday and is aiming for the No. 2 spot in the West. The Warriors set a franchise record with their 60th win on Saturday at Milwaukee and locked up the top spot in the West while putting a big gap between themselves and the Atlanta Hawks for the top record in the NBA. “It’s been a special year, obviously,” Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. “The guys have been fantastic all season long, just being committed to each other and the work. It’s been so much fun, and it’s great to rack up these milestones as we go.”

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Clips as 1-point underdogs, which is where it's currently sitting.

INJURY REPORT: GS - Green (Ques). LA - Griffin (Prob), Crawford (Early April).

POWER RANKINGS: Warriors (-15.7) + Clippers (-10.6) + Homecourt (-3) = Clippers +2.1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "This is a matchup of two surging Western Conference powers in a possible playoff preview. The best road team in the NBA, the Warriors, are looking to snap a seven game series losing skid by the visiting team. With the Clippers engaged in a fierce battle with Memphis, Portland and San Antonio for the 4th playoff spot - and home court advantage - expect an even bigger effort from them Tuesday." Marc Lawrence

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (60-13): Golden State started resting players by sitting Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala on Saturday, and Kerr will likely find extra rest for Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and especially Andrew Bogut over the last two weeks. Curry has been on fire of late and is averaging 30 points while going 24-of-38 from 3-point range over his last four games, burying at least five 3-pointers in each of those contests. “This is a big accomplishment,” Curry told reporters after Saturday’s win. “It’s a testament to how focused we’ve been over the course of the season. As of late, we’ve had a big lead in the standings, but we’ve understood that there are bigger goals in mind.”

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (49-25): Los Angeles’ recent surge has coincided with Blake Griffin’s return from elbow surgery, which solidified the starting lineup and turned the offense back into a powerhouse. “We’re passing up good shots for great shots,” point guard Chris Paul told reporters. “Obviously with Blake back, it makes us that much more dangerous. He’s one of the best passers on the team and then when he gets to scoring, you just have to pick your poison.” The threat of Griffin’s scoring in the frontcourt is opening things up for the guards, and Paul and J.J. Redick combined for 48 points in Boston on Sunday.

TRENDS:

*Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
*Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 overall.
*Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS: N/A

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Eastern Conference betting road map: Expect a good week from the Celtics
By SEAN MURPHY

The playoff picture hasn't gotten any clearer in the Eastern Conference, with no fewer than four teams battling it out for the eighth and final playoff spot. Things are more settled at the top, where the Hawks own an eight-game edge over the second place Cavs.

Sean Murphy takes a look at four angles to consider over the next seven days.

Spread watch

The Boston Celtics are reeling at the absolute worst time, losers of five of their last seven games and winless ATS over their last three contests.

There is reason to believe they can turn things around this week, however. Boston will sandwich a pair of manageable road games around back-to-back contests at TD Garden. All four games are winnable, coming against the Hornets, Pacers, Bucks and Raptors. I expect to see the C's go 3-1 ATS at worst.

Note that Boston remains 10 games over .500 from an ATS perspective this season. This isn't the time to jump ship in my opinion.

Total watch

The 'under' has been a solid bet in games involving the Milwaukee Bucks but not so much lately.

Milwaukee has seen four of its last six games go 'over' the total but that's a short-term trend that will hold little weight this week. The Bucks have a big week ahead, with four games on tap against Eastern Conference opponents. It starts on Monday in Atlanta as Milwaukee aims to respond following a poor defensive showing against the sharp-shooting Warriors on Saturday night.

With major playoff implications, I expect to see the Bucks tighten things up considerably. Take a good look at the 'under' when they take the floor this week.

Injury impact

Sunday's narrow win over the lowly Philadelphia 76ers may have been a costly one for the Cleveland Cavaliers as they lost both Kevin Love and Iman Shumpert to injuries. The extent of those injuries is not known, so for now they're both listed as day-to-day.

Perhaps it's a good thing that the Cavs don't play again until Thursday when they host the Miami Heat. Needless to say, these injuries are worth paying attention to as we've already seen Cleveland cool off slightly, going just 3-4 ATS over its last seven games following an extended hot streak against the number.

After Thursday's game against the Heat, the Cavs will enjoy another couple of days off before hosting the Chicago Bulls on Sunday.

Playbook

At this time last week the Indiana Pacers' biggest concern was a sagging offense that had played a major role in a five-game losing streak that ultimately would reach six before it was snapped last Wednesday against Washington.

We've certainly seen the Pacers step up their game offensively, however, scoring 100 points or more in five straight games. They've managed to win two of their last three contests, so the turnaround at that end of the floor has paid dividends.

Expect to see the Pacers continue to push the pace as they face four beatable Eastern Conference foes this week. Don't be surprised if their run of five consecutive 'overs' continues and they may be worth a shot against the number as well.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Warriors on fire ATS ahead of meeting with Clips
Stephen Campbell

The Golden State Warriors are a perfect 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games.

Stephen Curry and company travel to Los Angeles for a date with the Clippers on Tuesday.

Books currently have the Dubs as 1-point faves for the contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Pacific Division Showdown'

Tuesday night’s best matchup in the NBA looks to be the Golden State Warriors tops in the Association at 60-13 with a 44-28-1 mark against the betting line squaring off against L.A. Clippers sitting at 49-25 on the campaign, 34-40 against the number. Warriors sporting the top ranked offense netting 109.8 PPG behind a league best 47.8% from the field, 39.7% from long range have won nine straight contest treating backers with an 8-1 mark at the betting window. Clippers the leagues second best at putting the ball in the basket drop 106.6 PPG on 47.3% shooting and have won seven in a row cashing five tickets (5-2 ATS). Golden State has taken 2 of 3 matchups this season (1-2 ATS) with the lone loss coming at this venue giving Warriors a 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS skid in Clips back yards since last years Conf Quarterfinals. Sportsbooks leaning Golden State have Warriors -2.5 point road chalk with the total at 215 points. When handicapping this contest a few trends to be aware of. Warriors have been road faves of 4 or less 7 times this season posting a 4-3 ATS mark. Clippers have been underdogs of 4 or less 9 times going 2-7 ATS. Warriors have a 15-8 ATS stretch vs a team averaging 102 or more points/game while Clippers enter 10-15 ATS facing a team averaging 102 or more points. The series is 5-1 'Under' last six meetings with a total => 215.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Tournament Opening Betting Line Report: Inside the Final Four odds
By COLIN KELLY

After two weekends of wall-to-wall basketball, full of heart-pounding wins and losses – for teams, bettors and sportsbooks alike – the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four. And it should be just as much of a screamer as the rest of the Big Dance.

You’ve got top overall seed Kentucky (38-0 SU, 19-17-2 ATS) aiming to complete a perfect season, something that hasn’t been done since Indiana accomplished the feat in 1976. The Wildcats got arguably their sternest test all season when they held off No. 3 seed Notre Dame 68-66 as an 11-point favorite in the Midwest Region final Saturday. That gave Kentucky a date with fellow top seed Wisconsin (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS), which bested No. 2 seed Arizona 85-78 as a 1.5-point underdog in the West final.

On Sunday, No. 1 seed Duke (33-4 SU, 22-14-1 ATS) stifled No. 2 seed Gonzaga 66-52 laying 1.5 points in the South final, and No. 7 seed Michigan State (27-11 SU, 22-16 ATS) – a 2-point chalk – topped No. 4 seed Louisville 76-70 in overtime in the East final.

So how do things shape up for the Final Four? John Avello, executive director of race and sports for The Wynn, and John Lester, provide their insights.

No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky (-6.5)

It’s a rematch from last year’s Final Four, which Kentucky won 74-73 to push as a 1-point fave.

“This is one of the lower numbers Kentucky’s had through the whole year,” Avello , and in fact, the ‘Cats have been double-digit chalk in all their postseason games – in the SEC and NCAA tourneys. “Wisconsin is a quality team, with good shooters outside and great players inside. Now, they need to beat the big dog to have a chance to win the title.

“In my ratings, I had Kentucky at 5.5 or 6, but that just felt a little light to me.”

Lester said his crew batted around a range of numbers before going with Avello’s initial feeling, making Kentucky a 5.5-point favorite.

“Many believed these were the best two teams in the country coming into the tournament, and you could easily make that argument now,” Lester . “Kentucky has been a public darling all year of course, but the Badgers have had a lot of square and sharp support throughout the Big Dance.

“Our guys were between 4 to 7 points for this matchup. We shaded toward the favorite because we will need to attract some money on Wisconsin.”

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke (-5.5)

Duke is no surprise in the matchup. Michigan State is, to a degree.

“You’ve got a team nobody expected to get there this year,” Avello said. “Michigan State has a history of getting through the tournament, but this year didn’t seem like their year. Hats off to Coach Tom Izzo again for the way he gets his team ready to win it all – not to win the Big Ten, but to win it all.”

So what about the number?

“At the beginning of the tournament, Duke would have been favored by 8 to 9 points over Michigan State,” Avello said. “My adjustment has been made. Michigan State is better now than at the beginning of the tournament, but is Duke worse? I don’t think so.”

As with the Wisconsin-Kentucky line, Lester came in a little tighter, with Michigan State opening at +4.5. But he entertained 5.5 and fully expects the number to jump.

“The Spartans just feel like that team of destiny, like UConn last year. But they are overmatched from a personnel perspective here,” Lester said. “Michigan State claws to come back and win games, while the Blue Devils grind to preserve wins.

“I felt like we could’ve made this a point higher, and I’m expecting the number to jump throughout the week.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Final Four Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence

NCAA Final Four Out

It’s onward to Indy for the Final Four games.

To put the wraps on the 2015 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to Nap Town this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent, dating back as far as 1991 unless noted otherwise.

FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds not favored more than 5 points are 17-8 ATS (Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin)

#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 4-1 ATS as a dog (Wisconsin)

#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 5-1 ATS off an ATS loss (Kentucky)

ACC teams are 6-1 ATS (Duke)

SEC teams are 0-3-1 ATS (Kentucky)

Big 10 dogs are 3-5-1 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)

Teams off a SU dog win are 5-0-1 ATS (Wisconsin)

Dogs who are 3-0 SUATS last 3 games are 8-17-1 ATS (Michigan State)

Teams with revenge are 3-10 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)

CHAMPIONSHIP NOTES

#1 Seed favs. are 8-2 ATS

#5 or worse Seeds are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS

Favorites of 5 < pts are 12-2 ATS

Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final 4 round are 5-1 ATS

Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 2-6 ATS

Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS

SEC teams are 3-1 ATS

ACC teams are 7-3 ATS

Big 10 teams are 0-5 ATS

COACH ME UP

Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is:
65-19 SU and 41-41-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
48-12 SU and 35-25 ATS vs. Big 10
14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS vs. SEC
2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
47-14 SU and 35-27-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
17-10 SU and 13-14 ATS vs. ACC
11-6 SU and 9-7-1 ATS vs. Big 10
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
1-0 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Michigan State’s John Tom Izzo is:
46-16 SU and 36-24-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
13-24 SU and 18-19 ATS vs. ACC
250-122 SU and 206-171-4-1 ATS vs. Big 10
15-4 SU an 12-6-1 ATS vs. SEC
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
1-2 1-8 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
12-16 SU and 16-12 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is:
24-13 SU and 21-14-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS vs. ACC
189-83 SU and 135-133-4 ATS vs. Big 10
8-5 SU and 7-4-2 ATS vs. SEC
0-1 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
16-12 SU and 12-16 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and Championship games played over the last 26 years.

Enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Final Four Betting Outlook
By Jim Feist

The Final Four!

It is a great week for sports fans with the start of baseball, the NBA stretch run, the Final Four and the culmination of the college basketball season next Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana for the national championship. It's clear that it's not the teams the start the season hot, but the ones that get hot when it really matters -- March and April!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch.

For example, North Carolina started 17-4 but as February started the Tar Heels showed vulnerability, losing six of 10. A year ago Syracuse started hot before losing its first game in mid-February. From that point on they struggled to score and win, getting bounced by North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament.

It works the other way, too. A team can have a tough non-conference schedule or need time to work in new pieces, then get hot down the stretch. Last season Michigan State overcame injuries in mid-season before getting healthy - - and hot, ripping through the Big 10 tournament with a 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread.

It’s important to examine how a team played with overall stats, but also in three different sections:

1) Early non-conference play

2) Conference play

3) Tournament time

Two years ago, Miami started 22-3 before the national spotlight and a key injury took a toll, losing in the tourney to Marquette, 71-61. The previous year Missouri started 17-0 before stumbling in midseason, while Villanova won 16 of 17 to start the season, then broke down with injuries and poor play, finishing 3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS.

Kansas always seems to have the spotlight on it. This season they started great, then had some erratic play down the stretch, including losses at Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The previous season the Jayhawks had a late season injury to 7-footer Joel Imbiid (11PPG, 8 RPG), the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, a huge blow.

The Jayhawks may have won the title seven years ago, but nine years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite in the first round.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players toppled Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevented a North Carolina repeat in 2010.

Duke has seen its title hopes dashed in recent years, a stunning loss to Lehigh as 11-point chalk and last season getting bounced by Mercer, 78-71. This is nothing new. Gonzaga was taken down by Wichita two years ago, and four years ago No. 1 seed Pittsburgh saw its hopes crushed in a loss to Butler, 71-70. A few years ago No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future.

Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last 10 Finals Fours?

2014
Florida 53 -6.5
UConn 63 - -126

Wisconsin 73 - 139
Kentucky 74 -2

2013
Wichita State 68 -131
Louisville 72 - -11

Syracuse 56 - 131
Michigan 61 -2

2012
Ohio State 62 - 3
Kansas 64 - 136

Louisville 61 - 136.5
Kentucky 69 -8

2011
Butler 70 - 3.5
VCU 62 - 133

Kentucky 55 - 131
UConn 56 - +2.5

2010
Butler 52 - 1.5
Michigan State 50 - 125

West Virginia 57 - 130
Duke 78 - -2.5

2009
Michigan State 82 - 135
UConn 73 - 4

North Carolina 83 - 7.5
Villanova 69 - 160

2008
Kansas 84 - 158
North Carolina 66 - 3

UCLA 63 - 135
Memphis 78 - 3

2007
Georgetown 60 - 1
Ohio St. 67 - 130

UCLA 66 - 131
Florida 76 - 3

2006
George Mason 58 - 132
Florida 73 - -6

LSU 45 - -2
UCLA 59 - 123

2005
Louisville 57 - 144
Illiniois 72 - -3

Michigan St. 71 - 153
North Carolina 87 - -2

2004
Georgia Tech 67 - 139
Oklahoma St. 65 - -4

UConn 79 - -2
Duke 78 - 144

2003
Marquette 61 - -4½
Kansas 94 - 153½

Syracuse 95 - 153
Texas 84 - -3

2002
Indiana 73 - 134
Oklahoma 64 -6½

Maryland 97 - 168
Kansas 88 - -1½

What stands out is that it has been the day of the dog. The underdog is 15-9-1 against the number, with 12 dogs winning straight up, including UConn last year. In addition, the games have gone 12-6 to the ‘under’ the last nine years.

You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the season to take a shot with the ‘dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool's paradise.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before the above content analysis, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last 13 years the ‘over/under’ has been almost equal, 14-12 ‘under’ in the Final Four. The three years before that the ‘under’ prevailed at a 5-1 clip. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 20 years, the ‘under’ is 24-16 in the Final Four, with 21 ‘dogs covering while 18 favorites have gotten the money with one push. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you're serious about putting down hard earned money on a side.

Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 16 of the 21 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NIT Semifinals Tips
By David Schwab

This year’s NCAA Tournament starts back up this Saturday with the Final Four, but college hoops bettors will have plenty of action to keep them busy this Tuesday night with a pair of matchups in both the semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament and the College Insider Tournament.

NIT Semifinal - No. 2 Miami (FL) vs. No. 1 Temple (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York City, NY
Betting Odds: Temple -1 ½, Total 141

The Miami Hurricanes made their way to the NIT semifinals as the No. 2 seed in Region 2. After failing to cover against the spread in an opening round 75-71 victory against No. 7 North Carolina Central as 8 ½-point favorites, the Hurricanes went on to knockoff No. 6 Alabama 73-66 as 4 ½-point favorites and No. 1 Richmond 63-61 as 2 ½-point underdogs. Miami is now 7-2 straight-up in its last nine games while going 4-5 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five games.

The Hurricanes were dealt a blow when their second-leading scorer Angel Rodriguez was lost to a wrist injury, but both Manu Lecomte and JaQuan Newton are listed as probable for Tuesday night. Junior guard Sheldon McClellan has led the way all season with 14.4 points per game and he had the hot hand in last Tuesday’s victory against Richmond with 16 points while going 6-for 13 from the field.

Temple’s run through Region 1 on the NIT as the top seed included victories against No. 8 Bucknell and No. 5 George Washington, but its best effort came in last Wednesday’s 77-59 win against No. 3 Louisiana Tech as a four-point favorite. The Owls are now 7-1 SU in their last eight games with a 5-3 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER the closing 146 ½-point line in last Wednesday’s win after it had gone OVER in four of their previous six games.

Three of five Temple starters scored in double figures against Louisiana Tech led by junior guard Quenton DeCosey’s game-high 21 points. He also pulled down 11 of the Owls 39 rebounds to help pace the win. Temple is shooting just 38.4 percent from the field this season, but in that game it made good on 49. 1 percent of its 55 shots.

Betting Trends:

-- The Hurricanes are 7-4 ATS this season in 11 previous games as underdogs, but they are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games following a SU win.

-- The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games outside the their conference and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games against a team from the ACC.

-- These two last met in the 2005/2006 regular season with Temple coming away with a 73-56 victory as a 3 ½-point home favorite.

NIT Semifinal - No. 2 Stanford vs. No. 1 Old Dominion (ESPN, 9 p.m.)
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York City, NY
Betting Odds: Stanford -2 ½, Total 138

Stanford came into this year’s NIT as the No. 2 seed in Region 3. It started things off with a 77-64 victory over No. 7 UC Davis while covering as an 8 ½-point favorite. The Cardinal also covered as five-point favorites in a 74-65 win against No. 3 Rhode Island, but they came up short as 4 ½-point favorites in last Tuesday’s 78-75 victory against No. 5 Vanderbilt. Before this tournament, Stanford was just 1-4 SU in its previous five contests while failing to cover in all five games.

The duo of senior guards Chasson Randle and Anthony Brown have done much of the damage for Stanford in this tournament. Randle leads the team in scoring with 19.3 PPG, but he has averaged 23 points in his last three games. Brown is second on the team with 15 PPG and he led the way against Vanderbilt with 26 points. On the injury front, both Grant Verhoeven and Michael Humphrey remain questionable for Tuesday night after missing their last several games.

The Monarchs came into the NIT as the top seed in Region 4 after going 13-5 SU in Conference USA this season. They failed to cover in victories against No. 8 Charleston Southern and No. 4 Illinois State, but a buzzer-beater against No. 3 Murray State propelled them into this round after pulling-out a thrilling 72-69 victory as 1 ½-point favorites. ODU is now 9-1 SU in its last 10 games while going 7-3 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of its last 13 games.

Junior guard Trey Freeman hit the game winner against Murray State as part of his game-high 25 points on the night. He has been the Monarchs leading scorer this season with 17.5 PPG. ODU is averaging 65.4 PPG and at the other end of the court it is holding its opponents to 56.8 points a game.

Betting Trends:

-- The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last seven nonconference games, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games following a SU win.

-- The Monarchs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 out of conference games and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in their last five neutral-site games.

-- The only time these two teams played one another was all the way back in 2000 with Stanford rolling to an 84-60 victory as a 19-point home favorite.

College Insider Tournament

The first of two matchups in Tuesday’s College Insider Tournament pits the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks against the Evansville Purple Aces as 6 ½-point road underdogs with the total set at 150. The Skyhawks are 21-12 SU this season with a 16-10 record ATS. They have won their last three games both SU and ATS.

The Purple Aces come into this matchup with a SU record of 22-12 while going 17-13-1 ATS. They are 6-4 (SU and ATS) in their last 10 games and 2-1 ATS in this tournament. These two have not faced one another since 2009, but Evansville has a 6-1 SU edge in seven previous meetings and it is 2-1 ATS in the last three games.

The second game on Tuesday’s slate sends the New Jersey Tech Highlanders on the road to face the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks as 4 ½-point underdogs. The total for the game has been set at 144 ½. New Jersey Tech brings a SU six-game winning streak into this contest and it has covered in its first three games of this tournament. The total has gone OVER in those three games.

Northern Arizona (22-14 SU) is 8-2 SU in its last 10 contests and it has covered ATS in four of its last five games as part of an overall record of 17-11-4 ATS. The total has gone OVER in its last two games. This will be the first meeting between these two in recent memory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball Betting: 2015 FINAL FOUR MATCHUP BREAKDOWNS
Scott Spreitzer

– Sixty-four games have been played…leaving us with #1 seeds Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and then a mis-seeded #7 Michigan State left to battle for the 2015 National Championship this weekend in Indianapolis.

When handicapping the Final Four, it’s very important to focus on the classic fundamentals. That’s a key factor in why all four of these programs (and all four of these veteran head coaches) are still alive in the brackets. Fundamentals will likely determine who cuts down the nets Monday night. That’s what matters most when championships are on the line!

Let’s take a quick look at each matchup.


KENTUCKY VS. WISCONSIN

Better offense: Too close to call, slight edge to Wisconsin
Better defense: Kentucky by a lot

More meaningful depth: Kentucky

Some may be surprised that I’m giving such a large edge to Kentucky on the defensive side of the floor. The media has spent a lot of time this postseason raving about the Wisconsin defense. They were even doing that while all Wisconsin could do was grab and foul Arizona down the stretch last Saturday because the Badgers couldn’t guard the Wildcats!

Wisconsin creates the illusion of great defense by holding onto the ball so long on offense. That creates lower scoring games. But, holding onto the ball isn’t the same as stealing the ball, blocking shots, or forcing opponents into bad looks. When you adjust for pace and strength of schedule, Wisconsin doesn’t even have one of the best 50 defenses in the nation on a per-possession basis (according to Ken Pomeroy’s trusted statistical website). Kentucky is best in the nation after making those adjustments. Bottom line: Kentucky’s defensive fundamentals and skill sets are significantly better.

Who’s going to make more plays on offense because of their mastery of fundamentals? Wisconsin has a shot to do that. Though they are likely to cool off from that crazy second half shooting performance on treys they enjoyed in the Elite 8. Both of these teams have multiple threats and are able to score from all over the floor (and the free throw line). Both work the ball to high percentage spots on the floor.

Kentucky was posted as a 6-point favorite out of the gate because of that superior defense, and because their roster is so deep that they can handle fatigue, foul trouble, and most anything except red hot three-point shooting from an opponent.


DUKE VS. MICHIGAN STATE

Better offense: Duke
Better defense: Very close

More meaningful depth: Michigan State

Duke joins Wisconsin and Kentucky on the list of most efficient offenses in the nation because they can beat you inside and outside while protecting the ball. This year’s team has more athleticism than past Duke entries, while maintaining a high basketball IQ and a sense of movement. Michigan State is better than its reputation offensively. The Spartans “plod” their way to effectiveness in a way that doesn’t always please the eye. But, they are a top 20 team in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Michigan State has a better defensive reputation than Duke. That’s once again an illusion created by pace. Duke likes to push tempo when they can. Michigan State is much more methodical, only taking fast break opportunities in the most obvious situations. Once you adjust for pace, these defenses are fairly similar in their effectiveness.

Whether or not depth will be a factor in this one will depend on officiating. You saw Michigan State handle a pair of players fouling out vs. Louisville. Duke doesn’t have that luxury. A tightly called game favors Michigan State, because Duke will have to back off inside. If the refs let them play, Duke’s most dynamic talent will be able to stay on the floor the whole way.

(Quick note on our theme of fundamentals: Duke only suffered three offensive turnovers the whole game against Gonzaga!)

Duke is a market favorite (about 4-5 points on the early line) because of their superior seed, and their superior form in this event. But note that Michigan State beat Virginia in the Round of 32…the team that won Duke’s conference during the regular season.

Of course Saturday’s winners play Monday night. If Kentucky advances as a favorite, they will have a clear defensive edge over either Duke or Michigan State. But, the game they had to sweat with Notre Dame shows that any talented opponent has a chance to hang with or beat Kentucky in a 40-minute war on a neutral court. Odds favor the coronation of an undefeated champ. Fans and bettors just might be in for a very interesting weekend.

BOL in the Final Four..Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball Betting: Final 4 Betting Trends
Carlo Campanella

– And then there were 4...We head into April 4th's Final 4 games with 3 of our 4 number 1 seeds still alive in the Tourney. Carlo Campanella updates his March Madness betting trends for the Final 4 games as Vegas has posted the opening lines on both of these games at -5 points, with #1 Duke favored over Michigan State and #1 Kentucky favored over another #1 seed in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin (#1) vs Kentucky (#1)
Kentucky 8-2 SU & 3-5-2 ATS in 10 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 3-0 SU & 1-0-2 ATS last 3 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky beat Wisconsin 74-73 in last year's (2014) Final 4
Wisconsin is 0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS in their only 2 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 1-3 Over/Under last 4 Final 4 games


Michigan State (#7) vs Duke (#1)
Duke 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
Duke 2-1 Over/Under in last 3 Final 4 games
Duke's last Final 4 appearance was 2010
MSU 0-2 SU & ATS last 2 Final 4 games
MSU 1-4 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
MSU 2-3 Over/Under last 5 Final 4 games
MSU's last Final 4 appearance was 2010

Good luck, as always...Carlo Campanella.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

NIT games

Miami won six of its last seven games, losing to Notre Dame by 7 in ACC tournament; they won first three NIT games by total of 13 points, winning last game at Richmond; Hurricanes won 13 of 16 non-ACC games. Temple won seven of last eight games, losing to SMU in AAC tourney; Owls scored 80 ppg in winning three NIT games by 6-13-17 points; they lost by 20 to Duke in only ACC tilt. ACC teams are 11-11 vs spread this postseason, 5-2 as underdogs. AAC teams are 3-5 vs spread, 1-5 as a favorite.

Long trip east for Stanford, which lost six of last seven games away from home, but won first three NIT games at home by 13-9-3 points. Cardinal was in NYC in November, splitting pair of games in Brooklyn. Stanford is an experienced team that shoots ball but they lost four of last five prior to NIT. Old Dominion could have crowd edge, being in Virginia and this is probably bigger deal for them; Monarchs are 14-1 out of C-USA; they beat LSU and VCU, but haven't been away from home since Feb 28- they won NIT games by 9-1-3, all at home. Pac-12 teams are 9-7 vs spread in postseason, 5-5 as favorites; C-USA teams are 5-6, 3-3 as underdogs.


CBI games (best-of-3 series, 0-0)


CIT tournament

Tenn-Martin won its first three tourney games, all on road, by 25-1-11 points; Skyhawks lost by 10 at Illinois State its only games vs MVC opponent. UTM doesn't sub much; they're experienced team in Schroyer's first year as coach. Evansville scored 84.7 ppg in its first three CIT games, winning last two on road; Aces won two of three vs OVC teams, winning by 15 at Eastern Illinois 8 days ago after splitting pair with Belmont/Murray in December. MVC teams are 6-5 vs spread this postseason; OVC underdogs are 5-2.

Northern Arizona won 14 of last 17 games, winning three games in this tourney by total of 11 points, with two road wins; NAU won its last eight home games- last home loss was Jan 15. NJIT doesn't play in a league; this is its first road game since Jan 25 and its long road trip at that- they won last four D-1 games, scoring 82.7 ppg in three games in this tournament. NJIT won at Michigan, so they're not chumps, but their schedule is unusual. People were NYC were little annoyed that Engles wasn't interviewed for Fordham job.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's six-pack

-- VCU coach Shaka Smart might be the Texas coach by the time you read this; he was talking to Longhorn brass Monday night.

-- Duke is first ACC team in the Final Four since 2010.

-- Atlanta Falcons lose a 5th-round draft pick for piping in fake crowd noise for their games; weird part is the fake noise was from a soccer game.

-- WR Miles Austin signed a 1-year deal with the Eagles.

-- Houston Rockets lose PG Patrick Beverley (wrist) for the season.

-- Kyle Korver scored 11 points in 1:05 last night; shooters are marketable; that is something that will never change.