Tuesday 3/10/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB A-10 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 11-15
All games played at Barclays Center - Brooklyn, NY

TECH NOTES:
-- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 13-2 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS losses
-- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 13-3 ATS off BB SU losses
-- DD favorites are 2-5 ATS off a DD ATS win
-- Dogs are 14-30-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge
-- Dogs are 19-41-1 ATS off a SU dog win
-- #1 seeds are 0-4 ATS as dogs
-- #2 seeds are 11-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
-- #4 seeds are 15-3 ATS L18 as favorites
-- #5 seeds are 0-6 ATS as dogs off SUATS loss
-- #7 seeds are 5-1 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 5-0 ATS off DD SU loss and 6-1 dogs vs opp off SUATS loss

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: VCU, DAVIDSON, DAYTON, RHODE ISLAND

THE WAY WE SEE IT: This revamped conference has delivered 11 teams to the Big Dance the past two seasons, including six last year, with Dayton making it to the Elite Eight. Last year’s champ, VCU, was a preseason Top 20 squad, only to underachieve this campaign. The Rams also own spotty performances in conference tourney play, most notably a 1-8 ATS mark as double-digit chalk. In addition, Shaka Smart’s crew showed a propensity to play down to the level of opposition this season, going just 6-10 ATS versus sub .666 opponents. Still, the Rams are very dangerous and if they play anywhere to their preseason potential, they could be cutting down the nets at the Barclays Center.

Newcomer DAVIDSON arrived as a perennial power from the Southern Conference and did not disappoint. The Wildcats have appeared in 12 NCAA (missed last year) and 6 NIT tourneys, while owning 12 conference tournament titles since 1966. Veteran Bob McKillop has been the Davidson head coach for each of the last 26 years. Color this team experienced and dangerous (20-4 ATS this season at press time)... After being bounced by Florida in the Elite Eight, DAYTON played with renewed confidence this season. A 6-2 SUATS mark (at press time) against .500 or greater A-10 foes keeps the Flyers in a positive state of mind. RHODE ISLAND, the 3rd of four 20-win teams in this competitive conference, chewed up and spit out sub .666 foes this season, going 18-2 SU and 11-6 ATS. They stalled, however, with a 2-5 SUATS mark against anything better – all of which figures to earn them a win or two in this tourney.

THE SLEEPER: GEORGE WASHINGTON
The Colonials were pegged as the 2nd best team in this loop by the A-10 media before the first whistle sounded. And they played like it, bolting out to a 16-4 start before unraveling down the stretch. The feeling here is the lure of a 20-win season, coupled with a 16-7 ATS conference tourney record they bring to this party, is about to pay off as a 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record on neutral floors this season raises the bar.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

PLAY ON: NO. 1 SEED IN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
As competitive as this league is and has been, top seeds have been like annuities when arriving to the championship games. That’s confirmed by our well-oiled machine as it notes No. 1 seeds are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in title games when facing a No. 2 or lower seed, including 6-0 ATS as favorites of 5 or more points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 10 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 11-15
All games played at United Center - Chicago, IL

TECH NOTES:
-- Teams are 8-1 ATS w/DD SU revenge, dogs 6-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs opp off BB SU wins w/revenge
-- DD dogs off a DD SU loss are 5-2 ATS
-- Teams off BB SU losses are 8-2 ATS w/same-season revenge
-- Teams off a SU dog win are 1-5 ATS vs opp off a SU favorite loss
-- #1 seeds are 8-2 ATS S’07 vs #6 seeds or lower opp off SU win
-- #2 seeds are 5-1 ATS off 3 SUATS wins
-- #3 seeds are 2-8 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins and 1-4 ATS off DD ATS win
-- #5 seeds are 7-0 ATS off a SU dog win
-- #7 seeds are 5-0 ATS w/revenge, 0-7 ATS off SU loss vs opp w/revenge
-- #10 seeds are 6-0 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 7-1 ATS off BB SU losses and 8-2 ATS off SU loss

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: WISCONSIN, MARYLAND, OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN STATE

THE WAY WE SEE IT:
The NCAA Tournament committee will have its hands full trying to decide which teams to leave home from the powerful Big Ten conference with as many as nine teams in the loop likely to have 20 wins by the time the nets are cut down in this tourney. WISCONSIN is the most likely choice to capture a No. 1 seed, and deservedly so. Only Kentucky and Virginia own fewer losses away from home at press time this season. While 12 of their 16 tourney wins have been by double-digit margins, the Badgers have been anything but money winners in conference play the past two seasons (13-22-2 ATS overall), and last won this title in 2008 – as a No. 1 seed. MARYLAND, slotted into the 10th spot by preseason poll beat writers, was a major overachiever thanks to a dominating 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS mark in games versus greater-than .777 foes this season. But a 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record against No. 1 seeds in conference tourney games may end up biting the Turtles in the end.

Ranked 15th in the preseason polls, OHIO STATE disappointed despite an offense that ranked in the Top 10 in offensive field goal percentage. A 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS mark in games away from Columbus does not bode well. However, an 18-4 SU record in this event since 2007, with 6 title game appearances, could prove to be the perfect placebo needed. And speaking of strong Big Ten tourney history, last year’s champ MICHIGAN STATE brings a sparkling 22-12 SU record into this event since 1999. And when it comes to title games, Tom Izzo’s troops are a spotless 4-0 SUATS in Big Ten championship games. Can’t fade that.

THE SLEEPER: IOWA
The Hawkeyes earned their stripes as a visiting team this season with an 8-3 SU and 7-3 ATS record. They were also outstanding in games versus sub .850 opposition, going 18-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS. All of which leads us to Iowa’s 19-8 ATS mark in this tourney, including 12-1 ATS off back-to-back wins. Under most circumstances, a resumé like that would earn most teams Final Four status in events like this.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE WITH REVENGE
Once again we’ll take a leap of faith with Tom Izzo – not all that hard, actually – and back them with revenge in this affair. It would serve you well to note that the Spartans are 29-10 SU and 28-8-1 ATS with same-season conference revenge since 2000 – including 22-0 SU and 19-2-1 ATS when favored by 4 or more points – and 6-0 ATS in this tourney. Enough said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 11-14
All games played at Sprint Center - Kansas City, MO

TECH NOTES:
-- Favorites off BB SU losses are 6-13 ATS
-- Teams who are 3-0 SUATS L3 are 1-11 ATS with revenge and 2-12 ATS as dogs
-- Teams are 0-9 ATS w/DD SU revenge and 0-8 ATS w/ same season revenge
-- Dogs off BB SU wins are 2-9 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss
-- #1 seeds are 0-8 ATS w/3+ rest off SUATS win, 0-5 ATS off DD ATS win w/ 3+ rest and 1-6 ATS w/3+ rest vs opp off DD SU win
-- #2 seeds are 4-0 ATS w/same-season revenge, 7-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU & BB SUATS wins
-- #5 seeds are 5-1 ATS w/ same season double-revenge, 0-6 ATS L6 vs opp off SUATS win, 0-6 ATS L6 vs opp off SUATS win and 0-5 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
-- #6 seeds are 1-6 ATS w/revenge vs opp off SUATS win
-- #8 seeds are 6-0 ATS as DD dogs and 10-1 ATS vs an opp off SU win

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: KANSAS, BAYLOR, OKLAHOMA, IOWA STATE

THE WAY WE SEE IT:
With each team in the conference having played one another, and only two teams owning a losing record, this is arguably the most talented loop in the land. They are, however, a far cry from the Big 12 that sported three 30-game winners – for only the 2nd time in NCAA history – two seasons ago. Ten consecutive regular season championships makes KANSAS the overwhelming choice in this event. That and the fact they were the only team in the Big 12 with the possibility of finishing the season with a winning record on the conference road (check result at Oklahoma Saturday, 3/7). A loss to Iowa State in the semi’s last year prevented the Jayhawks from reaching the championship game for the 10th time since 1997. FYI: when they do arrive, they perform like Dorothy and her friends in Emerald City, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last ten title games…

BAYLOR opened (11-1 SU) and closed (5-1 ATS) the season on a strong foot, thus landing them the 2nd slot in our projected Final Four. A 13-2 SU and 6-3 ATS log this season against .666 or less opponents should get them to the semi’s and from there, who knows? What we do know is the Bears lost to Iowa State in the title game last season and will be anxious to make another appearance.

OKLAHOMA hit a bit of a spread wall coming down the stretch of the regular season (0-5 ATS at press time), and have failed miserably of late in this tourney (3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS last 13 games), but Sooners head coach Lon Kruger is conference tournament tested: 19-8 SU and 17-10 ATS versus sub .770 foes. Given the fact his troops are the 10th ranked team in the land in defensive field goal percentage, we’ll likely ‘buy’ rather than ‘sell’ the Sooners this go-round. IOWA STATE returns as the defending champion knowing they were 1-9 SU in their previous ten games in this event prior to pulling off last year’s surprise. Carrying the weight of that bulls-eye may be asking too much, especially since the last time they managed to capture this tourney, they were bounced in the NCAA first round as 11.5-point favorites. Yikes.

THE SLEEPER: TEXAS
This former Top 10 squad was bit by the injury bug and lost its way as the season progressed. Yet they still managed to finish in the Top 10 in defensive field goal percentage and rebound margin (along with Kentucky and Virginia), the two staples when it comes to defining quality teams. Landing a 20th win in this tourney would go a long way toward an invite to the Big Dance.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

WEST VIRGINIA IN GAME ONE
At first glance this might look hard to swallow, given the Mountaineers’ one-game-and-out mark each of the past four Big 12 tourneys. Remember, though, none of those four squads owned a win percentage of greater than .666. In conference tourney games with greater-than .666 teams, Bob Huggins is 30-8 SU, including 14-2 SU in tourney openers. This year’s team can play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Looking for Leaders
By Jim Feist

College Basketball’s Diminishing Edge: Senior Leadership

It's time! Time for college basketball teams to begin conference tourney play, also known as separating the contenders from the pretenders. It's important to understand and closely examine the schedule of college hoop teams. Some teams start off the season playing a bunch of cream puffs, while others face a mixture of good and bad teams.

What has taken shape the last few months, though, is largely conference play. Since conferences are purposely made up of schools with a similar level of talent, you need to pay attention to how teams start the season and what their schedule was like. Some schools want to get a few cheap victories over smaller schools and fatten up their won/lost record early in the season, while others want to test their teams early to toughen them up for conference play

Now it's time for conference tournament play, essentially the THIRD season of college basketball. The first season was November and December, non-conference games, plus coaches trying to figure out their personnel and strengths and weaknesses. The second season has been conference play the last two months, and now it's tourney time. This is where the weak links drop off, while the better and more motivated teams advance.

So this time of the season, is it important to have senior leadership? Kentucky dazzled everyone with their kids three years ago winning the title and Anthony Davis was the 4th freshman to win the Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award. However, that is not the norm, either. Remember that their only senior, Darius Miller, was 6th man off the bench and was the second leading scorer in the Final Four win over Louisville with 13 points.

Last year No. 7 seeded UConn was a surprise national champ. Think they had an abundance of experienced leadership? Of the starting five, Shabazz Napier dazzled, along with fellow senior Niels Giffey, plus DeAndre Daniels and Ryan Boatright were juniors. That experienced team didn’t miss a free throw in the title victory againhst Kentucky, 60-54, while the young Wildcats went 13-of-24 (54% from the line).

Two years ago Louisville won it all with one senior and two juniors in the starting lineup. The previous five years before the Kentucky kids won it, college basketball's champions, UConn, Duke, Kansas, Florida and North Carolina, had a combined 20 of 25 starters who were juniors or seniors. In 2011 UConn had a pair of juniors, including star Kemba Walker, while the team they beat, Butler, was a senior-laden squad.

Four years ago, Duke started 3 seniors and 2 juniors in the title game against Butler. In 2009 North Carolina had three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup when they whipped Michigan State for the title, 89-72. Clearly, having that kind of an edge in experience can be an important factor, though it isn't everything, especially with more college athletes leaving earlier for the pros.

The two years prior to those teams, Florida and North Carolina had starting fives with no seniors. 11 years ago, Syracuse's Jim Boeheim combined with a gifted group of freshmen and sophomores to win the NCAA title. The Orangemen upset Kansas in a thrilling finale, 81-78, with a starting five of two freshmen (F Carmelo Anthony, G Billy Edelin), two sophomores (C Craig Forth, F Hakim Warrick) and only one senior (G Keith Duany). The kids played like veterans for the Orangemen and note that Syracuse was 9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS on the road. No nerves away from home for the kids, straight up and against the number!

In the final three tournament games they were a +3, +3 and +5 dog to Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas and won them all straight up (+200 in the title game on the money-line). We are in an era with fewer seniors in college hoops, but let's not downplay the value of veteran leadership, as the Blue Devils showcased last season.

The 2006 Florida team had four junior starters who had been together for a while, then came back the next year and repeated. North Carolina in 2005 had three rock solid juniors in Ray Felton, Sean May and Rashard McCants. In 2004, UConn had senior guard Taliek Brown and star junior center Emeka Okafur.

If you're looking for a team that might win it all, history suggests talent, depth, good coaching and experienced leadership are four key ingredients for success in March. So, yes, generally speaking, junior and senior leadership are important assets to have during conference tournament play and the upcoming Big Dance.

NCAA Champions

2014 UConn (2 seniors, 2 juniors)
2013 Louisville (1 senior, 2 juniors)
2012 Kentucky (none)
2011 UConn (2 juniors)
2010 Duke (4 senior starters, 1 junior)
2009 North Carolina (3 senior starters, 2 juniors)
2008 Kansas (2 junior starters, 2 seniors)
2007 Florida (4 junior starters, 1 senior)
2006 Florida (4 junior starters)
2005 North Carolina (3 junior starters, Felton, McCants, May)
2004 UConn (1 key senior, Taliek Brown, junior Emeka Okafur)
2003 Syracuse (Starters: 2 frosh, 2 soph, 1 senior)
2002 Maryland (2 key seniors, Lonnie Baxter, Juan Dixon)
2001 Duke (1 key senior, Shane Battier)
2000 Michigan State (Starters: 3 seniors, 2 juniors)
1999 Connecticut (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1998 Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 3 juniors)
1997 Arizona (Starters: 3 juniors)
1996 Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1995 UCLA (Starters: 3 seniors)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Conference Tournament Odds

Odds provided by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

ODDS TO WIN AAC
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Hartford, CT
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 5:30 pm Pacific time) SMU 7/5
UCONN 7/2
CINCINNATI 7/2
TULSA 7/1
TEMPLE 7/1
MEMPHIS 10/1
FIELD 60/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 ACC TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 10-14, 2-15
Location: Greensboro, NC
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:00 am Pacific time) DUKE 7/4
VIRGINIA 7/4
NOTRE DAME 6/1
LOUISVILLE 8/1
FIELD 3/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-15, 2015
Location: Brooklyn, NY
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 11:30 am Pacific time) DAVIDSON 2/1
DAYTON 3/1
VCU 3/1
RHODE ISLAND 7/1
RICHMOND 10/1
GEORGE WASHINGTON 12/1
FIELD 10/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: New York, NY
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:00 am Pacific time)
VILLANOVA 4/5
GEORGETOWN 4/1
BUTLER 7/1
XAVIER 7/1
PROVIDENCE 7/1 ST JOHN'S 12/1
FIELD 100/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG 10 TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-15, 2015
Location: Chicago, IL
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 11:30 am Pacific time)
WISCONSIN 4/5
OHIO ST 9/2
MICHIGAN ST 6/1
MARYLAND 6/1
IOWA 15/1
PURDUE 15/1
INDIANA 60/1
FIELD 15/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Kansas City, MO
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:30 am Pacific time)
KANSAS 3/1
IOWA ST 7/2
OKLAHOMA 7/2
BAYLOR 9/2
WEST VIRGINIA 8/1
OKLAHOMA ST 15/1
FIELD 9/2

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG SKY TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 12-14, 2015
Location: Missoula, MT
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 10:00 am Pacific time)
MONTANA 6/5
EASTERN WASHINGTON 9/5
NORTHERN ARIZONA 6/1
SACRAMENTO ST 8/1
NORTHERN COLORADO 15/1
IDAHO 30/1
WEBER ST 30/1
PORTLAND ST 25/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 BIG WEST TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 12-14, 2015
Location: Anaheim, CA
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 12:00 pm Pacific time)
UCSB 5/2
CAL IRVINE 5/2
CAL DAVIS 3/1
LONG BEACH ST 9/2
HAWAII 8/1
CAL POLY 12/1
CAL RIVERSIDE 40/1
NORTHRIDGE ST 200/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 CONFERENCE USA TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 10-14, 2015
Location: Birmingham, AL
(Close betting on Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 12:30 pm Pacific time)
LOUISIANA TECH 2/1
OLD DOMINION 2/1
UTEP 4/1
UAB 5/1
WESTERN KENTUCKY 10/1
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST 25/1
CHARLOTTE 25/1
FIELD 50/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 MAC TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 9-14, 2015
Location: Cleveland, OH
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 3:30 pm Pacific time)
BUFFALO 7/5
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 3/1
TOLEDO 3/1
KENT ST 15/1
FIELD 3/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Las Vegas, NV
(Close betting on Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 12:00 pm Pacific time)
SAN DIEGO ST 9/4
BOISE ST 9/4
COLORADO ST 5/2
UNLV 6/1
WYOMING 12/1
UTAH ST 25/1
NEW MEXICO 25/1
FRESNO ST 60/1
AIR FORCE 200/1
NEVADA 300/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 PAC 12 TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Las Vegas, NV
(Close betting on Thursday, March 12, 2014 at 12:00 pm Pacific time)
ARIZONA 4/7
UTAH 3/1
OREGON 8/1
UCLA 10/1
FIELD 7/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SEC TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-15, 2015
Location: Nashville, TN
(Close betting on Friday, March 13, 2015 at 10:00 am Pacific time)
KENTUCKY 5/18
FIELD 16/5

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SOUTHLAND TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 11-14, 2015
Location: Katy, TX
(Close betting on Friday March 13, 2014 at 3:00 pm Pacific time)
STEPHEN F AUSTIN 1/2
SAM HOUSTON ST 5/2
FIELD 5/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SUN BELT LEAGUE TOURNAMENT
Date: Mar. 12-15, 2015
Location: New Orleans, LA
(Close betting on Friday, March 13, 2015 at 3:00 pm Pacific time)
GEORGIA ST 5/7
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 3/1
LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE 4/1
LOUISIANA MONROE 12/1
FIELD 8/1

ODDS TO WIN 2015 WAC TOURNAMENT
Date: MARCH 12 / 14, 2015
Location: LAS VEGAS, NV
(Close betting on Friday, March 13, 2015 at 6:00 pm Pacific time)
NEW MEXICO ST 5/11
FIELD 19/10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Four handicapping tips for betting NCAAB conference tournaments
By DOC'S SPORTS

The best betting appetizers to the annual feast known as the NCAA tournament are the various conference tournaments that take place over this week.

These serve as a warmup for the top teams in country, as they jockey for better seeding in the Big Dance. However, for a good number of teams, the conference tournaments represent one final chance to earn a place in the 68-team field by snagging an automatic bid that comes with winning it all.

Many of the traditional handicapping practices still apply. However, given the sudden-death nature of this format, there are a few additional betting tips to take into consideration when wagering on conference tournament action:

Good programs vs. Bad teams

By now we have a clear picture of every team in the nation and it becomes painfully obvious which ones are good and which one are bad.

While there are exceptions to every rule, don’t start thinking that teams such as Florida at 15-16 (10-19-1 ATS) or Michigan at 15-15 (12-16 ATS) are going to suddenly find their groove and go on a run.

Try and stay away from higher-profile schools that have good programs but are strapped with a bad team this year.

Season series

A few of the conference tournament matchups will mark the third time that two teams have faced each other this year.

Do your homework and try an uncover situations where a talented team has already lost twice to the team they are facing in the next round. Many times, you will find a couple key factors that contributed to the regular season sweep.

A good example would be if Butler meets Georgetown in the semifinals of the Big East tournament. The Hoyas won both encounters with the Bulldogs this season by a combined eight points. Georgetown is the No. 2 seed in the tournament but beating Butler a third time – especially with the Bulldogs playing so well right now – may be asking too much.

Ride the trends

While teams will be judged on their entire body of work when it comes to earning a spot in the NCAA tournament, it’s the programs that are hot ATS right now that you want to ride into their conference tournament.

The Davidson Wildcats rolled into the postseason on a nine-game SU and ATS streak in the Atlantic 10, grabbing the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. They get a double-bye and play the winner of La Salle vs. UMass - winning and covering in each of the meetings with those two programs in the regular season.

The Maryland Terrapins have won seven in a row and have covered in five of those contests, including a victory over Wisconsin as a 6-point home underdog.

Great players vs. Good teams

Every March there seems to be an example of what a great, pro-caliber player can mean to his team.

Connecticut rode Kemba Walker all the way to a national title in 2011 and along the way made some serious money for anyone who went along for the ride, with a 9-1 ATS record in Big East and NCAA Tournament play.

Anthony Davis was the backbone of Kentucky’s title run the following year, leading the Wildcats to a 4-1 ATS run in the final five rounds of the tournament before becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft.

Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, Texas' Myles Turner, and Arkansas' Bobby Portis all find their names high on the NBA mock draft boards.

Teams with a great individual superstar tend to trump good teams with no true standouts. These prime-time-players all have dreams of being the next Kemba Walker and leading their team to a national title. But, they also realize they are auditioning for the NBA and the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, which can be an even bigger source of motivation.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Princeton-Penn is only meaningless game on today's card. Princeton (-7) beat Quakers 78-74 at home in Ivy opener Jan 10, outscoring Penn 32-9 on foul line in game Quakers led by 15 with 13:35 left. Tigers were 32-43 on foul line, Penn 9-14. Princeton won its last three games, scoring 77.0 ppg; they're 3-3 on Ivy road, 1-1 as road favorites. Quakers won last two games, covered four of last five; they're 3-3 in Ivy home games, are 2-2 as a home underdog.

ACC tournament, Greensboro
Boston College won its last three games, allowing 61 ppg, after starting ACC play 1-14; Eagles were 2-7 on ACC road but one of wins was Jan 25 at Georgia Tech (64-62), when BC hit 9-20 from arc. Eagles are 6-3 in first ACC tourney game since joining league; they're 20-54 in ACC in last four seasons. Yellow Jackets are 1-4 in this event last four years; both of their games in LY's event went OT. Tech is 20-55 in ACC with Gregory as coach; they've lost eight of last ten games overall.

Wake Forest outscored Virginia Tech 9-5 over last 1:52 to beat Hokies 73-70 (-7.5) at home Jan 31, but Deacons lost five of their last six games overall, with last four losses all by 13+ points. Virginia Tech lost seven in row, 17 of last 19 games, with five losses by 12+ points and an OT loss to Duke in there. Wake is 1-6 in ACC tourney last six years; they used to play home games on this court. Hokies lost by 17-4 points in tourney in two years since they fired Seth Greenberg.


Horizon tournament, Valparaiso, IN
Home side won both Green Bay-Valpo games this year; Crusaders won 63-59 (-2) at home Feb 13, after Green Bay (-5.5) hung on for 51-50 win at home Jan 23. Valparaiso has only one senior in its rotation; they won this tournament two years ago, are #261 in experience, while Green Bay is #48. Phoenix hasn't won this tourney in last 12 years, despite at least getting to semis six times. Green Bay has three seniors in rotation, with senior 6-0 PG Sykes a force on offense,, but he's not a great shooter.


WCC tournament, Las Vegas
BYU (+12) won 73-70 on Senior Night in Spokane, holding Pangos/Bell to combined 4-16 from floor. Gonzaga (-5) won WCC opener 87-80 in Provo Dec 27. Zags are 21-3 in WCC tourney last 11 years, winning it eight times- they're 9-4 in WCC finals since '03. Am pretty sure BYU is in NCAAs by getting here; Cougars haven't won a conference tourney in last 12 years; they're 10-1 since sturdy big man Kaufusi was inserted in starting lineup- lot of their players are older, having been on missions.

Summit League, Sioux Falls, SD
South Dakota State won 12 of its last 14 games after starting out 0-2 in Summit; they lost 72-69 (-4.5) in Fargo Jan 4, then beat Bison 68-58 (-8) at home Feb 14, making 10-18 from arc. Jackrabbits won this tournament two of last three years; they're 9-2 in last 11 games. North Dakota State won eight of its last ten games; three of last nine wins came in OT- they won this tournament LY. Bison had three guys play 34+ minutes in last night's game; Alexander played whole game, Dupree 38:00.

NEC tournament, Brooklyn
St Francis is one of five original D-I teams that has never been in NCAA tournament; Terriers started season 0-5 in November, but are 17-3 so far in NEC. Road team won both their games with Robert Morris this year; Terriers won 68-63 at RMC Jan 16 (were down 8 at half), then got beat 67-65 by Colonials 8 days later (RMC scored last four points). Terriers won last eight home games, have three senior starters. Robert Morris won last five games; they're 6-2 in last eight away games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB | WI-GREEN BAY at VALPARAISO
Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (VALPARAISO) an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% | 1.5 units )

CBB | PRINCETON at PENNSYLVANIA
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (PRINCETON) an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG diff.) after 15+ games, after a close win by 3 points or less
67-21 since 1997. ( 76.1% | 34.9 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.8 units )

CBB | COPPIN ST at BETHUNE-COOKMAN
Play On - An underdog vs. the 1rst half line (BETHUNE-COOKMAN) an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against a terrible defensive team (>=78 PPG)
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 6:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$3000 - NON WINNERS $200 PER START IN 2014-15 OR 2015. AE: N/W $1250 IN LAST 5 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $30,000 IN 2014-15. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD TRAINER CHANGE HN 3 B.BLEVINS TO J.BROWN


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 ROYAL BRIEFING 7/2


# 1 IMJISPINETANKU 1/1


# 2 NORTHMEDO ESTHER 7/1


ROYAL BRIEFING surely looks like the fine animal to beat in this event. This gelding getting the top prize wouldn't be impossible, a chance. Comes into this contest with really good TrackMaster class ratings in relationship to the race - worth a look. This solid standardbred earned a formidable speed figure last out. Looks to be going well to come right back. IMJISPINETANKU - This nice horse could get the win here beginning from the Northfield Park 1 post. Many horse players know speed is is key. This nice horse has credentials with a 78 average number. NORTHMEDO ESTHER - This interesting entrant could get the trip to the winner's circle here beginning from the Northfield Park 2 position.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 4:00 - 1 1/4 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$13000 - NON-WINNERS OF 3 P-M RACES OR $20,000 LIFETIME. 3,4& 5 YEAR OLDS NOS. 9,10 START FROM 2ND TIER #9 MYATTITUDEURPROBLM & #10 TAXED TO THE MAX WILL START FROM THE 2ND TIER.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 9 MYATTITUDEURPROBLM 6/1


# 2 FRAC 9/2


# 6 PERFECT TWENTY ONE 9/2


After thorough analysis by the handicapping group, MYATTITUDEURPROBLM comes out as the top selection. Certainly should be given a look based on the competitive TrackMaster Speed Rating earned in the most recent contest. The trainer/horse combo statistics point out that this tandem are solid in the money finishers when working with one another. A better than expected ROI exists for fine animals coming from the 9 hole at Yonkers Raceway. FRAC - Could very well provide us a top prize based on very good recent TrackMaster SRs - earning an average of 80. This selection will feel the change in medication - with second time Lasix today. PERFECT TWENTY ONE - With very good ROI figures for horses returning from time off, this trainer's entrants can not be forgotten.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $4700 Class Rating: 65

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 BEYONDTHECHIC 5/2


# 4 IN A DISPUTE 10/1


# 1 KERRYS SILENT JET 9/2


BEYONDTHECHIC looks very strong to best this field. Could provide positive returns based on respectable recent speed figures with an average of 61. Had one of the most respectable Equibase speed figs of this field in his last affair. Is difficult not to consider given the company run in lately. IN A DISPUTE - With a formidable 67 speed figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this race. She has competitive class ratings, averaging 69, and has to be given consideration in this event. KERRYS SILENT JET - Has run soundly when running a short race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Maiden Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 83

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 115 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 FINALLY DIAMONDS 9/5


# 6 NEVADA TIME 8/1


# 5 BEACH FEVER 9/2


I've got to go with FINALLY DIAMONDS. Displays solid speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Heads have shown sharp results lately. Will almost certainly go to the lead and could never look back. NEVADA TIME - Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. Has to be given consideration against this group of horses in this race displaying decent figures lately and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 63 under similar conditions. BEACH FEVER - Has to be given consideration versus this group of horses displaying very strong figures recently and an average speed figure of 67 under similar conditions. There is a very strong possibility of an increase in speed as this gelding changes blinkers (on) for the first time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #4 - Post: 2:08pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,200 Class Rating: 61

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 UNBRIDLED GRADUATE (ML=8/5)
#2 BARROWBY HILL (ML=7/2)


UNBRIDLED GRADUATE - Looking at today's class rating, this horse is meeting an easier field than last time out at Belterra Park. Fits well considering the fact that the last time he tried this distance he got a speed figure good enough to win today. Sub-par performance last race out at Belterra Park was due to the off-going (he ran eighth). Expect better right here without a sloppy track. Ranked the highest in (EPS) earnings per start. Another notice that this animal is the class of the field. BARROWBY HILL - This gelding should give a good account of himself in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 UNCLE TICKLES (ML=2/1), #1 GO BOB GO (ML=9/2),

UNCLE TICKLES - The finish position of fourth in the last race shows me that this animal may be tailing off. GO BOB GO - Oddsmaker's morning line of 9/2 make this animal a pass by my standards.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 UNBRIDLED GRADUATE is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 4:01pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 THORIN (ML=15/1)
#4 FIRM BELIEVER (ML=10/1)


THORIN - Look for this gelding to show better in this field. Last clash at Parx Racing finishing fourth on a track listed as good is no sign of his true ability. 30-49-61 are last 3 Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this event. FIRM BELIEVER - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is encountering an easier bunch than last time out at Penn National.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 TWILL BE (ML=2/1), #3 DETERMINING (ML=3/1), #9 SPENNY B. (ML=9/2),

TWILL BE - You think this equine is going to win today just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done often. Pony ran a great speed figure last time out, but that was on a track listed as good. DETERMINING - Just cannot bet on this runner. Didn't show me anything positive in the last race or on Dec 2nd. You think this horse is going to be victorious just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first regularly. SPENNY B. - Hard to take this vulnerable equine at the odds after the result (fifth) in the last race. The fig last out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #1 THORIN on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Tuesday 3/10 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 58 - 178 / $289.30 BEST BETS: 8 - 15 / $28.20

Best Bet: FORT KNOX (2nd)

Spot Play: FITNESS CRAZE (11th)


Race 1

(3) ROCKIN ROBERT drops in class for the fourth consecutive week and he hasn't been awful recently; weak call in the opener. (2) GIDDY UP BINKS didn't fire enough from the pocket last week but he should be close up again. (1) MACHIN MONEY adds Sears and draws best.

Race 2

(1) FORT KNOX exploded home from nowhere in his local debut and everything from these California connections have been super; top call. (4) BETTOREVER has raced well in three efforts at The Meadowlands since joining the Bamond barn. (2) COMPANY MAN faltered in the Sonsam final at The Big M but he was a stakes winner there in January.

Race 3

(1) VEGAS ROCKS gets a free ride at the same level where he's taken two straight and he lands the rail again; looks like pretty logical selecting. (5) WELL SAID STRIDE was bet heavily into the top choice last out but broke. (3) MISTER SKITTER was overmatched on the big track; he can find these more to his liking.

Race 4

(7) ROGER MACH EM shipped from Cal Expo for Jennifer Sabot and much like all his stablemates he was awesome; down the road again. (2) REDISCOVERY is another of many Meadowlands shippers with stakes experience there and this one made some money in the Sonsam. (3) SIR SAM'S Z TAM kept up well in his seasonal debut for Lachance.

Race 5

(7) CRANK IT UP has been racing very well at Northfield for trainer/driver Mike Dowdall and now he picks up Dube for his local debut; worth a look at a decent price. (3) JK PATRIOT arrives with a nice resume for Toscano and with Tetrick driving he'll attract all the attention. (1) VICTORY AT LAST goes third-time in the Burke barn, has speed, the rail and Brennan driving.

Race 6

(2) MAJOR UPTREND has been a highly regarded horse in this young season for Burke and he was a big second in the Sonsam final. Assuming he handles the Yonkers surface he'll jog here. (1) YS LOTUS raced very well to be second best in his debut for Allard. (6) STRATOCASTER was aimed too high in his forst local start; worth using underneath for the streaking Tyler Buter.

Race 7

(1) CLASSIC ART has gone big efforts in his last two since joining the Rohr barn and Bartlett can trip out from this spot. (3) VANCE BAYAMA will be heading to front with Dube; clearly he can take these the distance. (6) WHAT I BELIEVE is another big track shipper who's been a fringe player recently; I'm sure Brennan will try to handle him aggressively.

Race 8

I've never been a fan of (8) LOOKING HANOVER but he appears to have too much class for these. Overcoming the outside posts in these added-distance events seems easier than I thought it would be. (3) WELL CONNECTED KID debuts for new connections and has been racing well. (4) BLOOMFIELDCANTIFLY debuts for DiDomenico and has Tetrick listed to drive.

Race 9

(8) MACK'S GOLD BAND won't have it as easy this week but the Allard trainee is a threat to go all the way. (3) MOVEMENT acclimated nicely last week just missing to the top choice and he is capable of being even better today. (12) SILVER CREDIT arrives from Freehold where she was a solid winner last out at odds-on.

Race 10

(9) MYATTITUDEURPROBLM blew away a cheaper field last week at Monticello and she arrives locally to face a very suspect group today; why not? (10) TAXED TO THE MAX looks to be steadily improving for Team Miller and I suspect he'll attract plenty of attention at the windows. (6) PERFECT TWENTY ONE has ability when he stays trotting; hold your breath early if you wager on him.

Race 11

(5) FITNESS CRAZE ships in off a sharp win at Dover and these connections have had success here. (4) WESTERN CREDIT picked up a live trip and was a sharp winner first out for these new connections; trotter is certainly capable of repeating. (2) STONEBRIDGE IDOL qualified nicely and could have more to offer.

Race 12

(5) SHE GLIDES arrives from Cal Expo for Sabot and as previously mentioned everything she is sending out is razor-sharp. (10) PASSING JETTA also hails from sharp connections and she is likely facing lesser arriving from The Meadowlands. (6) VEGLIANTINO did win two in a row when seen here in January.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Mahoning Valley (3rd) Shake Ya Rope, 3-1
(6th) Sunshine Valentino, 7-2


Mountaineer (5th) Spin the Yarn, 10-1
(6th) Tammy's Choice, 3-1


Parx Racing (3rd) Habanero Gold, 7-2
(6th) Gaining Ground, 8-1


Sam Houston (8th) Dancingovertheline, 6-1
(10th) Majestic Strategy, 5-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Double Fancy, 3-1
(6th) Da Boss, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's six-pack

-- Northeastern 72, Wm & Mary 61-- Double OT win Sunday took a lot out of the Tribe, which has still never made it to the NCAAs.

-- Wofford 67, Furman 64-- Gritty 10-seed damn near pulled upset of the month.

-- Gonzaga 79, Pepperdine 61-- Waves have lost 29 in a row to Gonzaga.

-- BYU 84, Portland 72-- Chase Fischer (no relation) had 20 in first half.

-- Manhattan 79, Iona 69-- Teams met in this game the last three years.

-- Summit League-- Watch some of the North Dakota State-South Dakota State title game tonight; you might be surprised how good the basketball is.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Mark Lawrence - Spurs
Cajun Sports - Over 199 Det/Lakers
Rob V - Bethune Cookman


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