Tuesday 2/28/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Wunderdog

Penguins at Stars
Pick: Over 6

Don't look for any defense with two fast-skating, offensive-oriented clubs flying around the ice. Pittsburgh is tops in the NHL in goals scored, seventh on the power play, #17 in goals allowed. Pittsburgh is on a 36-17-2 run OVER the total, 33-16-4 OVER when their opponent allows five or more goals in their previous game. Dallas is #13 in goals scored but the defense continues to be dismal at #29 in goals allowed, and last in penalty killing. They come off a 6-3 home loss to Boston as part of a 13-3 run OVER the total at home, as well as 8-2 OVER when playing on one day of rest.

 

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Vegas Butcher

Portland +4.5

When these teams met a few months back, Portland was -3.5 home favorite. Now there's an 8-point shift in the spread, which is a few points too many. I believe the combination of Lillard and McCollum will be too much for the Pistons to handle, and I expect the visitors to win the 'guard matchup' in this one. Expect a very close game.

 

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Eric Schroeder

My Bonus Play is on the Kent State Golden Flashes, laying road chalk at Bowling Green.

For the season, Kent has been the better team, as evidenced by its 17 wins. Bowling Green has 13. But it's because of that, and coupled with Bowling Green's 84-83 outright road win on Feb. 7 that has me thinking the Flashes will be looking for revenge.

Let's lay the cheap number on the road in this one, as Kent will pull away late for the win and cover in Bowling Green, getting revenge while gaining momentum for the MAC Tourrnament.

3* KENT STATE

 

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Brad Wilton

Tuesday comp play release is Seton Hall as the home favorite over Georgetown.

The Hoyas are once again a disappointment. They hit north New Jersey with losses in each of their last 3, and 5 of their last 6 games overall. The points haven't mattered all that much either, as Georgetown stands at 2-5 against the spread their last 7 times on court.

Included is a home loss to Seton Hall, 66-68 in overtime as the 3-point home favorite.

The Pirates have cobbled together 5 wins over their last 7 games, and they have now won 3 straight and 5 of the last 7 series meetings against the Hoyas, while covering in 4 straight and 6 of those 7 showdowns.

Go ahead and lay the wood with The Hall at home.

3* SETON HALL

 

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Jack Brayman

Not too big of a matchup here in the Big South Conference Tournament, as I suspect Charleston Southern to roll. I don't know if I'd lay double digits with an 11-win team, either, but the Buccaneers should win.

What also should happen is a high-scoring game.

Both scoring defenses are horrendous, as Longwood allows 81 points per game, and Charleston Southern gives up 77.6 points per contest. Even more, is Longwood allowing 80.1 on the road and Southern giving up 74.9 at home. So that's 155 points.

These two scored 137 the first time they met, but then a whopping 164 points just the other day, in the season-finale.

Play this one high, as Charleston Southern pushes the tempo in the opening round, and Longwood comes along for the ride.

5* Longwood/Charleston Southern Over

 

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Chris Jordan

My Bonus Play is on the Utah Jazz, as I'm being very cautious not to fall into the trap of playing the home underdog Oklahoma City Thunder. Rather than take the underdog that looks far too appealing, I'm siding with the oddsmakers in this one.

While the Thunder does have Russell Westbrook, the Jazz are an overall better outfit, which is why their favored.

And if you look closely, you see both are on three-game win streaks.

But Utah has beaten Portland, and won at Milwaukee and at Washington. The Thunder, on the other hand, are in after wins against the Knicks, Lakers and Pelicans. Talk about three stooges, you couldn't make an all-star squads from those three teams and come up with a roster that would beat the Thunder.

Utah is the better team, and the right side.

4* JAZZ

 

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BRANDON LEE

Nuggets/Bulls Over 222

Chicago has been playing at a faster pace since trading away Gibson, as it's forced them to go more of a small ball lineup with a stretch 4 instead of your traditional power forward. They put up 128 at home against the Suns in the first game back from the break and 117 last time out against the Cavs. I see no reason why the offense will slow down against a Nuggets team that has allowed 105 or more points in 8 consecutive games. Chicago defense hasn't been horrible, but Denver also likes to play at a fast pace and can certainly score at 110.6 ppg. The Bulls also figure to save some of that energy on defense for Thursday's big showdown at home against the Warriors.

 

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SCOTT RICKENBACH

DePaul vs. Providence
Play: Over 135

Even though the Friars are seeking revenge for a loss at DePaul earlier this season, they also are coming off of a huge 4-game stretch where they have beaten Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Marquette in succession. In this type of situation I simply can't see Providence bringing a very strong effort on the defensive end for this game. The Friars are hosting the worst team in the conference and could be flat after all the strong teams they have recently faced. As for DePaul, they've been a hot shooting team recently and the Blue Demons also have confidence against Providence as a result of beating them last month. DePaul comes into this game having shot nearly 50% from the field in their last 3 games combined. As usual though, the Blue Demons defense leaves a lot to be desired. Teams are shooting 47% overall and 37% from three point land against DePaul this season. The over is 6-2 this season (and 16-8 the last 3 seasons combined) in their games with a posted total in the 130s. As for the Friars, the over is a fantastic 6-1 in recent seasons (and 17-5 long-term) in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, the over is 11-5 the L3 seasons in Providence's games against teams with a losing record.

 

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ASA

Buffalo vs. Ohio
Play: Buffalo +5

Akron has already clinched the MAC East title and these two teams, along with Kent, are battling for 2nd place. Ohio comes into this game with a 10-6 conference record while Buffalo is 9-7. The Bulls have been solid on the road winning 3 straight and putting together a 5-3 road record in MAC play. Two of their three road losses in MAC play have come by a single point. Speaking of the road, the visitor in this series has won 6 of the last 9 meetings outright in this series. That trend continued earlier this year when Ohio topped Buffalo on the road by a final score of 74-72. Buffalo blew a 14 point half time lead in that game shooting just 37% and they making just 15 FT’s to 24 for Ohio. Even with that the game was tight because Buffalo destroyed Ohio on the boards (+12 overall & +10 offensive rebounds). We expect that to happen again here as the Bulls are one of the top rebounding teams in the MAC while Ohio is one of the worst. Expect Buffalo to shoot much better than the first meeting as the Bulls have hit 47% of their shots over the last five games and this team actually shoots better on the road than they do at home this season. The Bulls are playing well with a 6-2 record their last 8. Ohio started the MAC season with 3 straight wins but since losing star forward Antonio Campbell (16 PPG & 9 RPG) for the season in mid January the Bobcats are just 7-5, including 3 losses at home. We rate these teams almost dead even right now and the value is with Buffalo tonight.

 

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JOHN MARTIN

Nuggets vs. Bulls
Play: Nuggets +3

The betting public is all over the Chicago Bulls today, yet this line has dropped from 4.5 down to 3. I agree with the move and the big money being on the Nuggets to drop this line. The Bulls are coming off four straight victories, including a 117-99 upset in Cleveland against a Cavaliers team that was without Lebron James. The Bulls are primed for a letdown now here tonight at home against the Nuggets. Denver has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Denver is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games off an ATS loss. Chicago is 8-19 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

 

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MATT JOSEPHS

St Bonaventure vs. Davidson
Play: Over 148

A pair of defensively challenged teams play as Davidson hosts St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have gone over in three straight and four of their last five games. They have scored 70 or more in eight straight games as they rely on Adams and Mobley in the backcourt. Their problems on the defensive side have been slowing down the opponent with five of their last seven scoring 70 points or more. The Wildcats don't have a problem putting up points with Jack Gibbs and Peyton Aldridge. They also have an issue with defense going over in three straight games. Three of their last four home games have seen the opponent put up at least 70. The last two times these two played each other the scores were 90-86 and 97-85. I think this one could be fun to watch.

 

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JIMMY BOYD

Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -2

I really like the value here with the Yellow Jackets as a short home favorite against the Panthers. Both teams come in having lost their last two games, but I feel Georgia Tech is in the much better spot here at home, where they are 14-4 on the season. On top of that it's their final home game of the season, which adds a little extra to this one.

Pittsburgh just played their final home game and got destroyed by North Carolina. I just don't see them bouncing back here, especially with a much bigger game on deck against Virginia. The Panthers are also not that great of a road team, as they are just 4-8 on the season. Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after losing 2 of their last 3 games.

 

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JACK JONES

Georgetown vs. Seton Hall
Play: Seton Hall -5½

The Seton Hall Pirates are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament right now. But they are coming on strong late in the season just as they did last year when they won the Big East Tournament to get in. Kevin Willard's squad just seems to be at their best when the pressure is the greatest.

The Pirates have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall with one of their losses coming to Villanova. They have beaten fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Providence, Creighton and Xavier at home during this stretch. They also beat Georgetown on the road, which is tonight's opponent. They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hoyas.

John Thompson is a dead man walking for the Hoyas. He has consistently underachieved, and they aren't going anywhere this season at 14-15. They appear to have quit down the stretch by going 1-5 in their last six games. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three, losing by 17 at Creighton, getting upset at home by DePaul as 13.5-point favorites, and falling at St. John's.

Georgetown is 0-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season. The Hoyas are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Georgetown is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. The Pirates are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.

 

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JEFF ALLEN

Warriors vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards +6½

The All Star Break couldn't have come at a worse time for the Wiz who are 0-2 post after going 18-3 heading into the break. Wiz should be completely focused here having lost 9 of 10 in the series and catching the Warriors in a tough B2B after playing in Philly last night. The always overpriced Warriors are 1-4 ATS L5 and could care less about margin in the second half. John Wall and Bradley Beal a very underrated back court. Wiz straight up.

 

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MATT FARGO

Ohio State vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -1½

This is the final home game of the season for Penn St. and while the last home game is never a guaranteed win, a lot of that has to do with opponent and motivation. The Nittany Lions can finish the season over .500 with a victory here and at Iowa on Saturday to likely get into a lesser tournament after the end of the Big Ten Tournament which is a big deal to extend the season and carry it into next year. The Nittany Lions have lost three straight games including a home loss to Purdue in overtime and they have been very good at home despite a 9-6 record that seems pretty average. Penn St. is 4-4 at home in the conference that includes victories over Michigan St., Minnesota and Maryland. Ohio St. does not fall into that group and while the Buckeyes have the same conference record as Penn St., the season is much more disappointing because of lofty expectations that occur every season. The Buckeyes are coming off a home upset over Wisconsin but they are just 4-10 ATS this season following a victory. Additionally, they are just 3-7 on the road with two of those coming in the conference by just four points combined and the other coming at Navy.

 

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DAVE PRICE

Blazers vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -4½

The Key: At 24-34 on the season, the Portland Trail Blazers are playing with no sense of urgency right now. They have gone 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall and seem content with missing the playoffs. The Detroit Pistons are fighting tooth and nail to make the postseason at 28-31 on the year. They have gone 7-4 SU in their last 11 games and 8-4 ATS in their last 12. They are 18-12 at home this year and will be up against a Blazers team that is just 10-21 SU & 11-20 ATS on the road. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to Detroit.

 

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BLACK WIDOW

Florida State vs. Duke
Play: Duke -6½

Bets on home teams as a favorite or pick 'em (Duke) off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, in February games are 47-14 ATS since 1997. Look for a big effort tonight from the Blue Devils on Senior Night. They are 14-1 at home this season. Florida State is just 3-5 in true road games with all 5 losses coming by 10 points or more.

 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: NBA Memphis -10 Over Phoenix

 

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY: Take OHIO ST +1½ over Penn St

 

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Totals4U

Tuesday's Free Selection: St John's/Creighton under 164