Tuesday 12/8/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7100 Class Rating: 74

FOR CERTIFIED ARIZONA BREDS) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 LAST GREETINGS 7/2


# 6 KITTEN IN THE WILD 8/1


# 3 SAINT NATA 9/2


LAST GREETINGS is the top wager in this race. The extreme drop in class can only help out this horse today. Ought to be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Has a very strong shot in this contest if you like back class. KITTEN IN THE WILD - She looks formidable in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Has a solid shot in this competition if you like back class. SAINT NATA - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #4 - Post: 2:04pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 AFFLUENT ASSET (ML=4/1)
#1 SINDYS LUCK (ML=9/2)
#3 MOKHANDOIT (ML=6/1)
#4 OUR BROTHER B. A. (ML=5/1)


AFFLUENT ASSET - The jockey/conditioner duo of Gutierrez and Lucarelli has a strong return on investment together. This horse has recorded the best recent turf speed figure at the dist-surf. This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Gutierrez, and this one could bound home the winner. SINDYS LUCK - Jensen brings him right back. I propose you stick with this live gelding. Note that although this gelding finished runner-up in his last race, he was well clear of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. You have to like this mount changing from dirt to turf for the first time. He finished on the board on a sluggish dirt track on Nov 16th. A sign he may take to turf. Recent speed figures show dominant pattern of improvement. I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per race entered in this one. MOKHANDOIT - The rider/conditioner duo of Shepherd and Koler has a strong return on investment together. This speedball should benefit from this shorter distance. Have to like the way Koler has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. OUR BROTHER B. A. - This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Lucarelli. Gelding is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big race today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 MOECARO (ML=7/2), #7 AIRSHIP (ML=8/1),

MOECARO - Ran well to finish second on Nov 17th, but hasn't had nary a drill since then. Last speed figure of 84 may not be valid since it was on the soft turf. AIRSHIP - Hard to bet this one after not being at the front at 1 mile and now being situated in a race of 7 1/2 furlongs. Not probable that the speed figure he earned on November 17th will be good enough in this race.




STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 AFFLUENT ASSET to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 1:46pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 TRINNI HEART (ML=6/1)


TRINNI HEART - Have to make this horse a solid contender; he comes off a good effort on Nov 30th. Stalking speed. My associates and I like this horse. Cruised home victorious as he wired the field just recently at Parx Racing. Coming right back to potentially do it again right here in this race. Ran a nice speed fig of 91 on November 21st. Followed it up with another Equibase speed fig of 96. Either effort is good enough to win this affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MAVERICKS GUN (ML=5/2), #6 BACKWATER BLUES (ML=4/1), #8 HARBOR KID (ML=9/2),

MAVERICKS GUN - This gelding didn't do much for me last time out of the box. Don't believe this steed will do much running today. That last speed rating was common when compared with today's Equibase class figure. BACKWATER BLUES - You can't keep making rationalizations for a racer that just doesn't win. Don't play him. Finished third in his most recent effort with a disappointing fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch. HARBOR KID - Should be difficult for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced contenders list.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - TRINNI HEART - This steed has recorded gains in his speed figures over his last two affairs. Don't overlook this horse in your betting.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #5 TRINNI HEART on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [2,3] with [1,2,3,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [1,2,3,6] with [1,2,3,6] with [1,2,3,6] Total Cost: $24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Tuesday 12/8 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 387 - 1168 / $2,168.10 BEST BETS: 56 - 94 / $196.60

Best Bet: AM MAGIC MAN (4th)

Spot Play: OPENING NIGHT GEM (3rd)


Race 1

(1) FOUR CORNERS was a solid winner in his debut for DiDomenico breaking a long losing streak and he can certainly repeat here despite facing some tough foes. (3) OR was flying home to just miss last out; erratic veteran has a big chance. (4) LETS ROCK TOGETHER was an easy winner for Allard upon arrival from Canada.

Race 2

(5) BETTER TO BE LUCKY was second best in his last two to a tough rival; time to graduate. (4) ROSE RUN QUICKLY could have more to offer in his second local start since shipping from Indiana. (7) RILEY'S DREAM qualified very nicely at The Meadowlands and the filly has had a nice season but she also has breaking issues.

Race 3

(3) OPENING NIGHT GEM went a huge effort in his debut for the Burke barn and he deserves top billing off that race. (1) DCS BETTER LIFE looked awful at The Meadowlands but he was second best in his last local try. (2) TOUCH OF LUCK gets needed post relief.

Race 4

(1) AM MAGIC MAN had too far to come in his local debut but still paced a good back half; he will be much closer to the action today. (3) WELL SAID STRIDE returns locally and was decent when last seen here. (5) ELWELL was a winner in his debut for Laterza but he's off three weeks after being off a month prior; proceed with caution.

Race 5

(3) UNIX HANOVER was a well rated winner last week and the sharp sort can take another at this NW4 level. (2) BORIS will be close to the action and has a chance. (1) WINNING IS SWEET is another new Allard trainee shipping in sharp but he's missed some time and could be overbet.

Race 6

(6) CLASS SIX is undefeated since moving to the Burke barn; why not again? (1) SECRET THREAT raced better last week after hanging the week prior; Sears should be in line for a perfect trip from this spot. (5) ITSONLYROCKNROLL A is clearly better than he's been showing; his best effort can take this.

Race 7

(10) INSOMNIAC has hit the board in his last three tries versus this type and today Dube gets in the bike for trainer Jeff Gregory; worth a long look. (5) CLIFTON BEACH is another who's been racing well and picks up a catch-driver. (1) LADY WINONA really should have won last week but at least the filly can now get another crack at this same level.

Race 8

(3) HOME'N DRY ships in off some live efforts at Philly and the driver/trainer combo of Dube and Bresnahan have clicked well in these added-distance events. (4) DOUBLEDAY didn't fire with his best last week in a quick mile but his prior three efforts were super. (1) NORTHERN OBSESSION bounced back with a good effort last out.

Race 9

(1) RUDDY RUSTY returns locally at a reduced level and finds a very soft field; the Mark Ford barn has been relatively live recently so this gelding deserves top billing. (3) LIVE JAZZ makes his third start for a new barn and showed improvement last week. (8) A J DESTINY was a good second three back versus similar and he may be worth a look at a big price.

Race 10

(6) CAPTURETHEMEMORY stayed flat in that qualifier after two insane efforts with recoveries off breaks; any sort of trouble-free effort and she takes this. (2) SING OUT rebounded last week with a solid effort. (7) SHORTSKIRTNHIHEELS battled with the former for half a mile and came up just shy; mare is a good fit at this basement claiming level.

Race 11

(6) BRICKYARD TOOTS drops to a new low and only needs some sort of live setup to get the job done. (10) BIG PAYOUT can't seem to get the job done at this $15K claiming level but he remains sharp and should be considered. (4) COIN COLLECTOR was uninvolved last out at Philly and she returns locally for Burke in for a tag.

Race 12

(2) PAPARAZZI HANOVER has been second best in his last two racing big off tough trips; from this spot Kakaley can take control early and never look back. (1) TAIL GUNNER HALL gets needed post relief and looks second best from this spot. (3) MCCITO doesn't look like a major threat to the top two but he can hold the rest safe.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Finger Lakes (1st) Physical Therapy, 7-2
(8th) Little Jimmy, 4-1

Hawthorne (3rd) A Shot Away, 7-2
(4th) Top Gato, 7-2

Mahoning Valley (3rd) Seattle Summer, 6-1
(7th) Norte Grande, 6-1

Parx Racing (1st) Little Fat Albert, 9-2
(2nd) Ignite, 5-1

Turf Paradise (2nd) The Big Spoon, 7-2
(5th) Training Zone Jon, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the more interesting NFL games in Week 14

-- Vikings @ Arizona (-7)-- Interesting Thursday game in the desert.

-- Bills @ Philadelphia (-1)-- LeSean McCoy visits his old friends.

-- Falcons @ Carolina (-7.5)-- These teams play twice in next three weeks.

-- Saints @ Tampa Bay (-4)-- Buccaneers heading towards the playoffs.

-- Patriots (-3.5) @ Houston-- New England visits their old QB coach.

-- Cowboys @ Green Bay (-8.5)-- 3:25 local time kickoff on frozen tundra.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday

513 MASSACHUSETTS at 514 CENTRAL FLORIDA 7:00 PM

Take: MASSACHUSETTS +2.5

UMass will be facing a tall order tonight as they visit Central Florida. That’s not an assessment of UCF as a team, but rather a description of intriguing Knights freshman Tacko Fall.

Fall is a giant, literally. He’s an incredible 7’6?, owns a wingspan in excess of eight feet, and he can dunk the ball without leaving his feet. If Fall develops his game, he could become something truly special. But for the time being, while Fall has been reasonably productive, he’s pretty raw and can be lured into making mistakes.

I would assume Derek Kellogg will at least try to run Fall into the ground tonight. Massachusetts prefers to play fast, and there’s little question the Minutemen have a quickness advantage tonight against the bigger, but somewhat less athletic UCF squad.

I’m pretty sure this game be decided in favor of the team that’s more successful implementing its game plan. The Minutemen need to run and knock down some outside shots. UCF wants too muck it up and rely on its inside superiority.

It’s small sample as only a handful of games are in the books. But off what I’ve seen so far this year as well as in the NIT, CBI and CIT post-season events last season, I think the 30-second shot clock is a plus for better offensive teams. So at least until I get proven wrong, I’m going to start looking for offensively superior underdogs, even if they might not be as good on the defensive end. No guarantee this process pays off, but I’ve been tracking results when there’s this conflict in schemes, and I’m seeing a bit of an edge for the uptempo squads so far.

Neither of these teams is anything special, but I believe the Minutemen are a bit ahead of the Knights at this point, and I’ll opt to side with UMass as a road dog tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2015 7:05 PM

(501) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (502) INDIANA PACERS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Tuesday, December 8, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Golden State Warriors and the Pacers in Indiana. A big NBA showdown with unbeaten Golden State heading to Indiana, two of the best defenses in the NBA. Indiana is 9th in the NBA in points allowed while Golden State is 6th in field goal shooting defense, the Pacers are 11th. Golden State is 10-2-1 under the total against the NBA Central division. Indiana plays tough defense at home and the fans will be sky high with the defending champs in town. Indiana is 5-2 under the total at home and 5-1 under after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. And when these teams meet the under is 5-1 on this court. Play Golden State/Indiana Under the total.

 

[68UpperNorth]

bookieshunter 8Dec15
W. Va @ Virginia Virginia -5 (2*)
NBA
Jazz @ Kings Kings -1 (1*)