Tuesday 12/29/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Tuesday's college football bowl betting preview

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Game played at Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

Cal Golden Bears vs. Air Force Falcons (+7, 67)

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two teams with very different offensive styles meet Dec. 29 as Air Force takes on California in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas. Air Force’s ground game ranks third nationally with 321.8 rushing yards per game, while Cal boasts an explosive aerial attack led by junior quarterback Jared Goff, who broke his own single-season school records for passing yards and touchdowns. The teams are meeting for the first time since the 2007 Armed Forces Bowl, when the Golden Bears overcame a 21-point deficit and escaped with a 42-36 victory.

2. Cal won two of its final three games to secure its first postseason appearance since 2011, while Air Force won five straight to clinch the Mountain West Mountain Division title but fell 27-24 to San Diego State in the conference championship game. The Falcons’ triple-option offense has received a boost from tailback Jacobi Owens, who started the final seven games and rushed for a season-best 156 yards against San Diego State. The Golden Bears also will need to keep a close eye on senior quarterback Karson Roberts, who has rushed for nine touchdowns and thrown for nine others.

3. All five of Air Force’s losses came away from home this season, but it should have solid backing in Fort Worth, which is less than a 12-hour drive from Colorado Springs. Safety Weston Steelhammer recorded a team-high 80 tackles and five interceptions as well as 10.5 tackles for loss and seven pass breakups to lead the Falcons, who ranked third in the Mountain West in scoring defense at 23.2 points per game. Steelhammer will need another strong effort against the Golden Bears, who closed the regular season with a 48-46 home win over Arizona State.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Cal as a 7-point fave. The total is up to 67 from the opening 65.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing toward the northwest endzone at around six mph.

TRENDS:

* Golden Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.
* Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last four games overall.
* Over is 6-2 in Golden Bears last eight Bowl games.


Russell Athletic Bowl

Game played at Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida

(11) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (19) Baylor Bears (+2.5, 69.5)

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL STORYLINES

1. North Carolina goes after its school-record 12th victory of the season when it takes on injury-plagued Baylor at the Russell Athletic Bowl on Dec. 29 in Orlando, Fla. The No. 10 Tar Heels lost their opener to South Carolina and won 11 consecutive games before dropping the ACC Championship game 45-37 against No. 1 Clemson. North Carolina has won 11 contests for the fourth time (also 1972, 1980 and 1997) and faces the No. 17 Bears, who lost three of the last four games.

2. Four different quarterbacks have been under center this season for Baylor and freshman Jarrett Stidham (broken ankle) is not expected to be ready, which will hand the start to Chris Johnson. The sophomore won’t be able to look in the direction of Biletnikoff Award winner Corey Coleman (74 receptions, 1,363 yards and a nation-leading 20 touchdowns), who has been ruled out due to a sports hernia. Coach Art Briles also announced that running back Shock Linwood (1,329 yards rushing, 10 TDs) would not play against North Carolina due to a broken foot.

3. There’s no doubt who will be at the helm for North Carolina as senior quarterback Marquise Williams attempts to end his final campaign with another strong performance. Williams is one of five ACC players in history to accumulate more than 10,000 yards of offense and threw 12 of his 21 touchdown passes this season in the last six games while suffering only two interceptions in that span. The 6-2, 225-pound Williams has also rushed for 867 yards and 11 scores in 2015, and has been responsible for a school-record 94 touchdowns in his career.

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Baylor as a 2.5-point fave, but that has been adjusted to +3. The total is up one point from the opening 68.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-70s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing toward the north endzone at around six mph.

TRENDS:

* Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last five games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Bears last five neutral site games.


Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl

Game played at Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Colorado State Rams (-3, 55.5)

NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL STORYLINES

1. For the first time since the Big Eight’s Nebraska and Oklahoma met in the 1979 Orange Bowl, two opponents from the same conference will square off in a non-playoff bowl game when Nevada and Colorado State of the Mountain West meet Dec. 29 in the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl in Tucson. With only 77 bowl-eligible teams to fill 80 slots and several conferences unable to fill their affiliations, the selection process became a scramble and, when the dust settled, the West-Division Wolf Pack and Mountain-Division Rams wound up pitted against each other in the first-year bowl. The teams did not meet in the regular season due to the conference’s unbalanced-schedule rotation, but Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson quickly issued a statement following the bowl-pairings announcement Dec. 6, saying: “It is a travesty the Mountain West has been forced into this situation. Clearly, the system is broken. ... There is consensus change needed, and this year’s outcome must not be repeated.”

2. Nevada struggled offensively this season, ranking 87th in the FBS in scoring (26.1 points per game) and 83rd in total offense (377.7 yards), and will have an interim play-caller in Tucson with offensive coordinator Nick Rolovich leaving to accept the head-coaching position at Hawaii. Wide receivers coach Jim Hofher, a former head coach at Cornell and Buffalo, will handle the duties and also will switch from coaching the receivers to quarterbacks. And with the Wolf Pack playing in a post-Christmas bowl game, coach Brian Polian has started his search for the team’s next offensive coordinator to step in for Rolovich, who had served in that capacity the last four seasons.

3. Mike Bobo already has had the most successful initial coaching season in Colorado State history, and the Rams are building on that with the additional practices and the extra game itself. In particular, quarterback Nick Stevens has shown strides under Bobo, the offensive coordinator at Georgia the previous eight seasons, as he set the program’s sophomore record with 2,369 passing yards. Stevens also has thrown a Mountain West-leading 21 touchdown passes – the fifth-highest single-season total in Colroado State history.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, American Sports Network/Campus Insiders.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Rams as 3.5-point faves but that's moved to -3. The total opened at 56 and is down to 55.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-40s under clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at around six mph.

TRENDS:

* Wolf Pack are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Wolf Pack last five Bowl games.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Rams last five Bowl games.


Advocare V100 Texas Bowl

Game played at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

(21) LSU Tigers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+7, 73.5)

ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL STORYLINES

1. LSU coach Les Miles spent the last few weeks of the regular season unsure about his job security but comes into bowl season armed with the knowledge that he’ll be back to guide Leonard Fournette and company again next year. Miles will try to reward the school’s faith in him when he leads the Tigers against Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl in Houston on Dec. 29. The Red Raiders enter the postseason with some momentum after knocking off Kansas State and Texas in their final two games.

2. Texas Tech boasts the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation at an average of 46.6 points and the No. 2 passing attack (389.7 yards). LSU proved to be more vulnerable in the defensive secondary than usual and slipped to 47th against the pass, surrendering an average of 211 yards through the air. The Tigers were in the mix for a spot in the National Championship Playoff before surrendering 30 or more points in three straight losses, but finished the regular season with a 19-7 triumph over Texas A&M.

3. The Red Raiders will put their passing offense up against any opponent behind quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who enters bowl season third in the nation with 4,283 passing yards. The sophomore threw for 32 touchdowns and rushed for 10 more in a breakout campaign. The Texas Tech passing game is in direct contrast to LSU’s attack, in which quarterback Brandon Harris heads an offense that averages 173.1 yards – 110th in the nation.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Red Raiders as 7-point dogs but that is now +7.5. The total has is at the opening number of 73.5.

WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Red Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Bowl games.
* Over is 5-0 in Tigers last five non-conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Red Raiders last seven Bowl games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall

Tuesday, December 29

Matchup Skinny Edge

AIR FORCE vs. CAL (Armed Forces Bowl)
Cal 1-5 vs. line last six this season and has dropped its last pointspread decision of the year a remarkable seven seasons in a row! Bears just 2-4 vs. spread away from Berkeley in 2015 and have not covered a bowl since the 2007 team in this same bowl vs. Air Force. Falcs 13-5-1 last 19 vs. spread and are 8-3 their last 11 as dog. Troy Calhoun 4-1 vs. line last five in bowls.

Air Force, based on team trends.


BAYLOR vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Russell Athletic Bowl)
Art Briles no wins or covers last two years in bowls, and Bears just 6-10 vs. number their last 16 on the board. Heels 8-5 vs. line this season though only 2-3 vs. spread away from Chapel Hill. Larry Fedora no covers last four bowls with USM and UNC.

Slight to North Carolina, based on recent trends.


NEVADA vs. COLORADO STATE (Arizona Bowl)
Pack closed season on 4-0-1 spread run and was 4-1-1 vs. line away from Reno, now 9-3-1 vs. spread away since last season. Pack 2-2 vs. line last four bowls. Rams 2-5-1 vs. spread last 8 away from Fort Collins and have failed to cover in bowls the past two seasons.

Nevada, based on team trends.


TEXAS TECH vs. LSU (Texas Bowl)
TT 10-5 last 15 vs. spread since late 2014 and Kingsbury 9-5 vs. number last 14 as dog, and Tech has won SU in its last four bowls since 2009. Les Miles no covers last four or five of last six bowls, and also no covers last five away from Baton Rouge. Tigers 3-10 vs. spread last 13 as chalk away form home.

Texas Tech, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, Dec 29

Cal lost four games in row after a 5-0 start; they allowed 477 yards on ground in 44-28 loss at Oregon Nov 7- they lost last four away games. Bears are in first bowl since 2011; their last bowl win was in '08. Air Force is 3-2 SU in last five bowls, covering last three as bowl dog; Falcons are 4-1 as an underdog this year; they allowed 33+ points in four of their five losses. Last seven years, Mountain West teams are 6-5 vs Pac-12 in bowls- they're 4-1 in bowls so far this year. Dogs won this bowl four of last six years; four of last five stayed under the total.


Russell Athletic Bowl, Orlando

Baylor blew a huge lead late in 42-41 bowl loss to Michigan State LY; Bears are 2-3 in last five bowls- dogs covered four of the five games. Baylor is without its top two QBs; #3 QB Johnson is 15-38 passing, but one of his games was played in awful weather- they lost three of last four games after 8-0 start. North Carolina is 2-3 in last five bowls (faves 4-1 vs spread); UNC lost its first/last game, won 11 in row in between- they allowed 300+ rushing yds in three of last five games, a red flag. ACC teams won this bowl last five years, with favorites covering three of last four. Last six Russell Bowls stayed under.


Arizona Bowl, Tucson

Rare bowl game between teams in same league, though they did not meet this season; Rams won last two meetings, 38-17/31-24. Nevada lost last three bowls by 7-1-13 points; they're 3-4 vs bowl teams, losing last two by 4-17 points. Colorado State is 2-3 in last five bowls, allowing 35+ in all five- they weren't favored in any of them (avg total, 72). Rams won last four games to get here- they gave up 200+ rushing yards in seven of last nine games, are 2-4 vs bowl teams this year. State scored 28+ points in all seven of its wins; they're 0-5 scoring less than 28. This is first Arizona Bowl.


Texas Bowl, Houston

Texas Tech allowed 300+ rushing yards in five of its eight games; they gave up 317 to I-AA Sam Houston in its opener, all of which is good news for Leonard Fournette, who struggled vs defenses in SEC. Tech won its last four bowls, scoring 39.3 ppg; they were favored in three of them. LSU scored less than 20 points in its last four games thanks to terrible QB play. LSU lost three of last four bowls, scoring 18.3 ppg. Over last six years, SEC teams are 9-2 SU vs Big X teams. Favorites covered three of last four Texas Bowls; five of last six stayed under total. Expect a lot of Fournette here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL Dec. 29, 5:30 EST

North Carolina seeks a school-record 12th victory when Tar Heels take on injury-plagued Baylor Bears in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Tar Heels balanced offense putting up 40.9 PPG spearheaded by senior QB Marquise Williams tossing 21 TD passes, 11 scores on the ground and RB Elijah Hood running for 17 majors should have little trouble topping Baylor suffering a major blow to its top ranked offense without QB Jarrett Stidham (12TD), WR Corey Coleman (20TD), RB Shock Linwood (10TD). Consider laying the small number (-3). Tar Heels on a school-record mission improve it's 6-1 ATS streak vs a team with a winning record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 8:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$6000 - GUARANTEED $10,000 PICK 4 STARTS HERE $20,000 GUARANTEED TRIFECTA POOL NON WINNERS $400 PER START IN 2015. AE: N/W $3500 IN LAST 5 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $40,000 IN 2015 NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 DONT SAY GOODBY 7/5


# 2 CHEYENNE LOUIE 5/2


# 3 CHANGE YOUR LUCK 7/1


DONT SAY GOODBY could be our best wagering option in this gathering. Many expert selectors know speed is is key. This horse has credentials with a 86 average rating. Surely the class of the group of animals with an average rating of 88. A nice contender. Recent markings for the driver - 26 percent win - make this gelding a clear choice in the bunch. CHEYENNE LOUIE - The 2 position is on fire here at Northfield Park. More wins than the expected average. Could beat this field of horses, just look at the speed rating - 78 - from his most recent affair. CHANGE YOUR LUCK - Has respectable speed ratings and most definitely has to be considered for a bet in this race. Could beat this group of animals, just look at the speed fig - 81 - from his most recent performance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$9500 - NW $6,001 LAST 5 STARTS OR $1,201 PER START IN 2015. AE: OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000 OR NW 7 EXT. PM RACES LIFETIME. HENNESSEY PICKED 1 OVER 3


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 SAILER EDDIE 10/1


# 7 WINDING HILL 7/2


# 1 BUDDY HALLY 3/1


SAILER EDDIE is the most compelling bet in this race so don't let the high morning line scare you off. The panel of smart guys knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This race horse will unlock our way to a nice top prize. The 86 average class rating may give this gelding a distinct edge in the field. Lining up in the 5 post at Pompano Park adds some hidden advantage as this hole has a better than expected return on investment. WINDING HILL - Battling solidly, earned a very compelling speed rating in his last gathering (83). With better than average win figures, Macdonald should have this gelding in excellent position to win the gathering. BUDDY HALLY - Take a look at this fine animal's avg speed ranking of 84 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very nice wager. Has a very strong shot for this one, if he can repeat his back class.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9600 Class Rating: 80

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 29, 2015 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 ITZ A SAINT 3/1


# 8 ANOTHER DOLLAR 5/1


# 6 LADY SHAZZAM 5/1


I like ITZ A SAINT here. Is tough not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been quite good - 73 avg - of late. Ran a sharp last race. Must be given consideration given the class of races run recently. ANOTHER DOLLAR - Vaunts reliable Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. Should be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest. LADY SHAZZAM - Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figs (70 average) at today's distance and surface lately.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 81

FOR CERTIFIED ARIZONA BREDS) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 29, 2015 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 9 PHOTO SHOPPED 3/1


# 4 ALLEN'S CROWN 6/1


# 8 CANDY SWEETHEART 6/1


I have to consider PHOTO SHOPPED here. The average class rating of 89 makes this entrant tough to beat. Is a solid contender based on numbers garnered recently under today's conditions. His 89 average has this gelding with among the most competitive Equibase Speed Figs in this race. ALLEN'S CROWN - With a sound 79 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the midpoint of the affair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,300 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 ALL AMERICAN MAN (ML=7/2)
#2 BRIGHT HOUSE (ML=9/2)


ALL AMERICAN MAN - Rounding his way back into form. Each of his finish positions is getting better in his recent starts. The jock/conditioner duet of Emigh and Scherbenske has a strong return on investment together. This front-runner should profit from this shorter trip. BRIGHT HOUSE - This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Scherbenske. Better watch out for this angle. Gelding's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. This gelding is in superb form right now. Finished first last race out and comes back rapidly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SQUIDALEM (ML=2/1), #4 MAGIC APPLE (ML=4/1), #6 RUN FORT RUN (ML=6/1),

SQUIDALEM - This gelding is always in the mix, but just doesn't finish on top. Difficult to play him on the win end. Registered a most unsatisfactory speed figure last time out in a $12,500 Claiming race on December 4th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig. MAGIC APPLE - Difficult to wager on this horse in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint race before you invest in him in a race of 6 furlongs. This thoroughbred just hasn't looked ready of late. RUN FORT RUN - This horse doesn't have a winner's character. Very often finishes near the winner. Awfully difficult to bet on this less than sharp equine when he hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness recently.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 ALL AMERICAN MAN to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:38pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,900 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 WILLA WANDO (ML=6/1)
#1 RIVER CITY GIRL (ML=9/5)


WILLA WANDO - Faced tougher last race out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders. RIVER CITY GIRL - Classic handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. A live one today. Horse's last race was at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in a race with a class figure of 80. Dropping drastically in Equibase class figure in today's event puts her in a solid position right here in this race. This thoroughbred coming off a nice race in the last 30 days is a solid contender in my book. Another way to determine class is earnings per start (EPS). This thoroughbred has the highest in the bunch. I think she'll be close at the end. Just see her last speed figure, 69. That one looks good in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A HOLIDAY WEEKEND (ML=9/5), #8 UNIQUE INDYGO (ML=3/1), #4 SHE'S THE PRIZE (ML=6/1),

HOLIDAY WEEKEND - Didn't look so great last time. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. UNIQUE INDYGO - Difficult to take this vulnerable equine at the price after the finish position (fifth) in the last race. SHE'S THE PRIZE - This mare hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance affairs. Tough to bet on her in this event. This mare is always hitting the board, but just doesn't win. Tough to wager on her on the front end.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - RIVER CITY GIRL - Registering a speed figure of 52 two back and then following up with a rating of 69 last race on November 23rd, this filly is ready to do some damage.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 WILLA WANDO to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Hawthorne (3rd) Magic Apple, 4-1
(7th) Looking for Bits, 7-2



Mahoning Valley (5th) All Snuffed Up, 8-1
(7th) Concho Halo, 3-1


Sunland Park (3rd) Soaring Cid, 3-1
(4th) Snowbound Jones, 3-1


Turf Paradise (3rd) Tizunanimous, 6-1
(7th) Allen's Crown, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's six-pack

Six of Week 17's more interesting NFL games.........

-- Jets (-3) @ Buffalo-- Rex Ryan can knock his old team out of playoffs.

-- Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)-- Houston wins division unless nine things happen, one of which is losing this game.

-- Steelers (-10) @ Browns-- Pittsburgh needs a win and a Jet loss.

-- Titans @ Colts (NL)-- Indy is basically out of healthy quarterbacks, but they're not dead in playoff race yet. Miami alum Stephen Morris could play QB.

-- Chargers @ Denver (-7.5)--- Broncos win AFC West with a win here.

-- Vikings @ Packers (-3)-- Winner gets home game in playoffs next week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday

531 CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ 532 WILLIAM & MARY 7:30 PM

Take: CENTRAL MICHIGAN +6.5

This season hasn’t started off all that well for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are just 6-5, and that’s disappointing for an experienced team that went 23-9 last year. But there were mitigating circumstances as CMU struggled early, and that situation has now been rectified.

The Chips had to do without Chris Fowler for roughly the first month of the season, and that was a huge absence for a team that’s a little short when it comes to quality depth. The problem really showed up in a three games in three days tournament stretch in November as CMU lost a close game to Weber State and then didn’t have much left in the tank for the next two games. The Chippewas also gassed in an altitude game at BYU, where they played the Cougars even for the first half and then got rolled after the break.

But things are looking up for Central Michigan with a healthy Fowler now shaking off the rust and getting his game back together. This guy is a very solid guard and there’s no question this is a much better team with Fowler back running the point. He makes everyone else on the team better and I’m really expecting CMU to start rolling as MAC play approaches.

William & Mary is no soft touch. The Tribe figure to contend for CAA honors as they chase that elusive first-ever NCAA invite. Of course, that will have to come via the league tournament as W&M is not going to be garnering an at-large placement in the Big Dance. But they’re a good mid major entry and they want to keep playing well with the league opener on deck.

But I’ll have to disagree with the current ratings on these teams. William & Mary might well be right around the kenpom #79 grade, but Central Michigan with Fowler back in action is considerably better than #180. The oddsmakers recognize this as well as they have posted a number much lower than the current power ratings project. I completely agree with that assessment and feel Central Michigan is a team ready to take off. I can’t call this is a value play as the guys who post the lines aren’t being especially generous. But I’m putting the buy sign next to Central Michigan and I’ll take them with the points tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Tuesday, Dec. 29, 2015 9:05 PM EST

(509) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS (510) DENVER NUGGETS

Take: Over the total

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Tuesday, December 29, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Nuggets in Denver. Cleveland has not been enjoying this long road trip, giving up 105 points the last game in a loss at Portland, its second straight defeat on the trip. This is the second of a back to back road spot, at Phoenix last night, and now they head to the thin Denver mountain air. Denver will try and run, as they like to do at home, and the over is 4-0 in their last four home contests. The over is 16-7 in the Nuggets last 23 games playing on one day of rest. Denver hasn't been playing much defense, allowing 122, 111, 130 and 101 points in four of the the last five games. Play Cleveland/Denver Over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play: TUES CBB No Carolina ST -5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Freddy Wills

Nevada vs Colorado State

1* Bonus Play Colorado State

Two teams come out of the same conference to play each other in the bowl game. One team is clearly not happy that they are here while the other has not said much about it other than the fact that they are excited to be playing their 13th game of the season. I’ll back Colorado State here as I really don’t think Nevada cares based on their comments they wanted to be playing in the bowl game San Jose State got with players coming out and saying so. I would rather back a team that seems more disciplined at this point in the season.

Colorado State also has the best player on the field in WR Rashad Higgins, and they also had the more challenging schedule in conference play with better results. Colorado State played Air Force, SD State, Boise, Utah State, and New Mexico, but Nevada missed out on Boise and Air Force otherwise this team wouldn’t even be in a bowl game. The stats in conference play also favor Colorado State who went 4-1 on the road this year compared to Nevada’s 2-4 record away from home. Colorado State even cleaned up their issues with TO margin late in the season and have the far better special teams ranking 21st in the county. I’ll take Colorado State who really doesn’t have any bad losses with the exception of their in state rival Colorado and that was only by 3. Nevada lost to Wyoming and UNLV enough said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

St. Louis vs Kansas State

Bonus Play Kansas State

I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday. We have successfully played against SLU a couple of times this season, cashing both. Tonight, we'll go against them again. It didn't take long for Jim Crews to destroy what the late Rick Majerus had built in Arch City and the Billikens are getting out-coached, especially when it comes to second half adjustments. SLU has dropped three straight games and six of seven, including home losses to Southern Illinois, Indiana State, and UT-Martin. K-State rates a solid three buckets better than the two Mo-Valley squads, and I believe they'll play up to their abilities in this one. Justin Edwards is listed as questionable (foot) for Bruce Weber's squad. If Edwards plays, we get what he brings to the table for K-State. If he isn't able to give it a go, his absence will force others to pick up the slack, keeping the available troops focused throughout. SLU enters on a 7-22-1 ATS slide against teams with a winning SU record and they're 1-10 ATS following a SU loss. Kansas State will look to extend their in-season ATS record to 6-2-1. I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond

Princeton vs Miami (Fla)

Tuesday College Hoops Free Selection Miami (Fla)

No doubt the Tigers out of the Ivy league are a challenging unit showing 7-3 SU, but their SOS is lacking and will need to play one possession at a time to keep this close. The Hurricanes have come out on fire, despite their lack of rebounding, 10-1 SU (8-2 ATS)…and covering nicely. They have won 5 straight, covering 4-of-5 defeating LaSalle, Charleston, Florida, Charlotte and Nebraska…So, I’ll take my chances laying the 16-1/2 vs. traveling Princeton who is 5-12 ATS off a SU win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Nevada vs Colorado State

5* Bonus Play on Nevada +3

An unusual bowl game on Tuesday afternoon as a pair of teams from the same conference (Mountain West) square off in the Arizona Bowl. Nevada and Colorado State did not face each other in the regular season, but will play for bragging rights here. Colorado State is listed as the favorite, likely because of their better conference record, however we view Nevada as the better team and expect the Wolf Pack to win this game outright.

Despite a winning 5-3 conference record, the Rams actually gave up more points than they scored in conference play. Not so for the Wolf Pack, who were scored more than they allowed. And Nevada also played a far tougher non-conference schedule, including tough games against both Arizona and Texas A&M. Both teams have favorable matchups with their running offenses, but we give the big edge to Nevada in terms of overall defense. Also, final scores from comparative opponents (especially Utah State and Fresno State) lead us to believe Nevada truly is the better team. 5* Bonus Play on Nevada.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ricky Tran

Texas Tech vs LSU

5* Bonus Play on Texas Tech

The Red Raiders closed the season strong by beating the Longhorns 48-45. They boast the nation's second highest scoring offense, averaging 46.6 points per game. They will play LSU in the Liberty Bowl, and the Tigers are favored to win by at least a touchdown. If this was a regular season game, I'd say that LSU should be a favorite. The Red Raiders though might be better equipped for a bowl game. LSU has failed to cover in each of it's last four bowl games, and it lost three of it's final four games of the season. Tigers quarterback Brandon Harris was picked off five times while throwing for just three TDs in those games. Kliff Kingsbury will have had over a month to come up with creative offensive schemes, and the Red Raiders have the personnel to execute. I'll take Texas Tech as a dog in this game, and wouldn't be surprised if they win outright!

GO RED RAIDERS!