Sportswagers
Montreal @ N.Y. ISLANDERS
Montreal +125 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Islanders are hot with four wins in a row while allowing just six goals against over that span. Not only have they reeled off four in a row but they have also outshot the opposition in every game and in three of those they outshot them by wide margins. The Islanders also held a significant edge in time of possession in the offensive end. This is a damn good hockey team that is a tough out every night. The Canadiens are also running good right now with four wins in five games while outscoring the opposition over that span, 18-7. Montreal’s only loss over that stretch was by a 2-1 score against the Ducks.
We’ve said it many times and it’s worth repeating that goaltending is the number one factor in deciding close games or even three or four goal victories. We see it night in and night out that you must have solid goaltending in order to win consistently and that’s the basis for this choice. The Islanders will go with Chad Johnson tonight. Of the 72 goalies that have played this year, Johnson’s save % of .868 ranks 67th. The goaltenders that he’s ahead of in save percentage are Anders Lindback, Scott Clemmensen, Jussi Rynnas, Anton Forsberg and Ilya Bryzgalov. Johnson is a complete stiff that gives the Islanders a better chance of losing and if you compared this to pitchers in baseball, this would be like Clayton Kershaw versus Kyle Kendrick and Kendrick would be a huge dog. By contrast, Carey Price gives the Canadiens a great chance of winning every game. Price has a save percentage of .924 and wins games on his own while Johnson has never won a game on his own. We get a tag on a great asset versus a huge liability in net and unless the Habs take a bloodbath in terms of shots on net and time of possession, we’re very likely going to cash this ticket. The Islanders with Chad Johnson in net CANNOT be favored in this range over the Habs with Carey Price in net.
Our Pick
Montreal +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)
Philadelphia @ MINNESOTA
Philadelphia/MINNESOTA over 5½ +104
OT included. We’re the first to admit that totals are something we usually stay away from because there is more value playing sides and because we’re usually wrong on them anyway. However, this is one we can’t ignore when two absolutely brutal goaltenders are up against one another. Ray Emery is good for three soft goals on a good night. When he’s not on his game, he’s prone to allowing five or more. Emery has a save % of .894 and the only reason he’s in goal is because the Flyers don’t have another choice. Emery has played in 10 games this season. He’s posted save percentages of .840, .882, .897, .786, .875 and .880 in six of those. The only reason he was the winning goaltender in his last game in Toronto was because the Flyers scored seven times. Emery allowed four goals on 21 weak shots by the Maple Leafs. The Wild create a ton of chances and they’re starting to go in. In fact, Minnesota has scored 14 times over their past four games and they played Nashville, Chicago and Boston in three of those. Minnesota has a chance to go over this number on their own, especially when you consider the Flyers defensive woes.
Niklas Backstrom is in net for the Wild because they, too, have no alternatives. Darcy Kuemper has been yanked more times than any goalie in the league. Between he and Backstrom, the Wild have allowed 14 goals against in their past three games and Philadelphia is a team loaded with snipers that bury their chances on good goaltenders. Against this aging stiff, Philly figures to score at least twice and probably more. There are several 5½’s every night and that’s with good goaltenders in net. These are two of the league’s worst and we get the same total plus some juice. That’s value.
Our Pick
Philadelphia/MINNESOTA over 5½ +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
St. Louis @ COLORADO
St. Louis -½ +127 over COLORADO
Regulation only. The Avalanche appear to be somewhat back on track with two straight victories and picking up points in five straight. However, a close look shows that it’s all about to come crashing down again. Colorado was outshot in every one of those five games. They were outshot 35-23 by Detroit and won 2-1. They were outshot 49-28 by Pittsburgh and won 1-0. Even against Buffalo, the Avs were outshot 29-23 and won 5-1. The reason the Avalanche have been winning games is once again because of goaltending. Calvin Pickard has been absolutely sensational and he’s the Avs goalie of the future. In fact, if Colorado wasn’t paying Semyon Varlamov so much money, Pickard would be their #1 goaltender. Well, Varlamov returns from injury tonight and because money decides everything, he’s back in net. We say suh-weet. Varlamov is not only rusty but he’s been shaky all season with a .906 save percentage and a 3.22 GAA.
The Blue Notes are beasts to play against. If they had solid goaltending, they would have the league’s best record and it probably wouldn’t be close. St. Louis is in the top three in the NHL in almost every advanced stat both offensively and defensively. They rarely get outshot, outworked or outplayed. What we love about them here is that they are coming off back-to-back losses in Los Angeles and San Jose. Going into the X-Mas break on a three-game losing streak is something they surely want to avoid. It’s also worth noting that the Blue Notes have been off for 2 days and they are 5-1 straight up when playing on two days’ rest. St. Louis will dominate this game because they are playing a team that gets dominated 80% of the time and that’s been against teams a lot worse than the Blue Notes. Jake Allen is the confirmed starter for St. Louis so no need to worry about Marty Brodeur getting in the way of victory.
Our Pick
St. Louis -½ +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)
Montreal @ N.Y. ISLANDERS
Montreal +125 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Islanders are hot with four wins in a row while allowing just six goals against over that span. Not only have they reeled off four in a row but they have also outshot the opposition in every game and in three of those they outshot them by wide margins. The Islanders also held a significant edge in time of possession in the offensive end. This is a damn good hockey team that is a tough out every night. The Canadiens are also running good right now with four wins in five games while outscoring the opposition over that span, 18-7. Montreal’s only loss over that stretch was by a 2-1 score against the Ducks.
We’ve said it many times and it’s worth repeating that goaltending is the number one factor in deciding close games or even three or four goal victories. We see it night in and night out that you must have solid goaltending in order to win consistently and that’s the basis for this choice. The Islanders will go with Chad Johnson tonight. Of the 72 goalies that have played this year, Johnson’s save % of .868 ranks 67th. The goaltenders that he’s ahead of in save percentage are Anders Lindback, Scott Clemmensen, Jussi Rynnas, Anton Forsberg and Ilya Bryzgalov. Johnson is a complete stiff that gives the Islanders a better chance of losing and if you compared this to pitchers in baseball, this would be like Clayton Kershaw versus Kyle Kendrick and Kendrick would be a huge dog. By contrast, Carey Price gives the Canadiens a great chance of winning every game. Price has a save percentage of .924 and wins games on his own while Johnson has never won a game on his own. We get a tag on a great asset versus a huge liability in net and unless the Habs take a bloodbath in terms of shots on net and time of possession, we’re very likely going to cash this ticket. The Islanders with Chad Johnson in net CANNOT be favored in this range over the Habs with Carey Price in net.
Our Pick
Montreal +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)
Philadelphia @ MINNESOTA
Philadelphia/MINNESOTA over 5½ +104
OT included. We’re the first to admit that totals are something we usually stay away from because there is more value playing sides and because we’re usually wrong on them anyway. However, this is one we can’t ignore when two absolutely brutal goaltenders are up against one another. Ray Emery is good for three soft goals on a good night. When he’s not on his game, he’s prone to allowing five or more. Emery has a save % of .894 and the only reason he’s in goal is because the Flyers don’t have another choice. Emery has played in 10 games this season. He’s posted save percentages of .840, .882, .897, .786, .875 and .880 in six of those. The only reason he was the winning goaltender in his last game in Toronto was because the Flyers scored seven times. Emery allowed four goals on 21 weak shots by the Maple Leafs. The Wild create a ton of chances and they’re starting to go in. In fact, Minnesota has scored 14 times over their past four games and they played Nashville, Chicago and Boston in three of those. Minnesota has a chance to go over this number on their own, especially when you consider the Flyers defensive woes.
Niklas Backstrom is in net for the Wild because they, too, have no alternatives. Darcy Kuemper has been yanked more times than any goalie in the league. Between he and Backstrom, the Wild have allowed 14 goals against in their past three games and Philadelphia is a team loaded with snipers that bury their chances on good goaltenders. Against this aging stiff, Philly figures to score at least twice and probably more. There are several 5½’s every night and that’s with good goaltenders in net. These are two of the league’s worst and we get the same total plus some juice. That’s value.
Our Pick
Philadelphia/MINNESOTA over 5½ +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
St. Louis @ COLORADO
St. Louis -½ +127 over COLORADO
Regulation only. The Avalanche appear to be somewhat back on track with two straight victories and picking up points in five straight. However, a close look shows that it’s all about to come crashing down again. Colorado was outshot in every one of those five games. They were outshot 35-23 by Detroit and won 2-1. They were outshot 49-28 by Pittsburgh and won 1-0. Even against Buffalo, the Avs were outshot 29-23 and won 5-1. The reason the Avalanche have been winning games is once again because of goaltending. Calvin Pickard has been absolutely sensational and he’s the Avs goalie of the future. In fact, if Colorado wasn’t paying Semyon Varlamov so much money, Pickard would be their #1 goaltender. Well, Varlamov returns from injury tonight and because money decides everything, he’s back in net. We say suh-weet. Varlamov is not only rusty but he’s been shaky all season with a .906 save percentage and a 3.22 GAA.
The Blue Notes are beasts to play against. If they had solid goaltending, they would have the league’s best record and it probably wouldn’t be close. St. Louis is in the top three in the NHL in almost every advanced stat both offensively and defensively. They rarely get outshot, outworked or outplayed. What we love about them here is that they are coming off back-to-back losses in Los Angeles and San Jose. Going into the X-Mas break on a three-game losing streak is something they surely want to avoid. It’s also worth noting that the Blue Notes have been off for 2 days and they are 5-1 straight up when playing on two days’ rest. St. Louis will dominate this game because they are playing a team that gets dominated 80% of the time and that’s been against teams a lot worse than the Blue Notes. Jake Allen is the confirmed starter for St. Louis so no need to worry about Marty Brodeur getting in the way of victory.
Our Pick
St. Louis -½ +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)
