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Mr. Vegas

Mr. Vegas Free Tuesday NBA pick 12/02: 7:35 PM ET

(505) LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS (506) DETROIT PISTONS

Take: (505) LOS ANGELES LAKERS

As bad as the Lakers are this year, they are still slightly better than the Pistons. The Lakers are 4-13 S/U after a nice win at home in OT over a good Toronto team on Sunday. The Lakers are actually 2-5 S/U on the road and 4-3 ATS, which aren't too bad considering. The Pistons are just 2-7 S/U and ATS at home. Detroit has lost eight straight games and is 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Lakers have been competitive at least, going to OT in two of their last four games and staying close in all four. Two bad teams but one still needs to get a cover and I look for the Lakers to get another road win here. Hard to believe the early line has Detroit a 4 1/2 point favorite considering they can't even win a game. Detroit has been favored six times this year. The result? 0-6 ATS. Take the Lakers plus the points.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday 8:05 PM NBA

(511) DALLAS MAVERICKS at (512) CHICAGO BULLS

Take: (511) DALLAS MAVERICKS +2

I don’t play much NBA, but that doesn’t mean it’s a league I ignore. If a spot I like shows up, I’m happy to get involved. One such instance on tonight’s slate, as the Mavericks head to Chicago for a duel with the Bulls.

This will be the first game at home in a bit for the Bulls, and they don’t have a very good record in their first game back in friendly confines following a trip of at least one full week. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are one of the best ATS road teams in the NBA and Dallas also has some very admirable numbers when playing off a spread loss.

But the key for me tonight is on the personnel front. Dallas gets a key player back in action tonight, while a guy who has given the Mavericks problems in the past won’t be on the court for the home team.

Jameer Nelson is not by any stretch a superstar. But the Mavericks are simply a better team with the point guard in the lineup. Nelson is expected to return tonight after sitting out the last few, and I deem that as a nice upgrade for Dallas.

Taj Gibson will be watching this one in civvies for the home team. Gibson is also not a big star. But he’s a valuable component for the Bulls and while it’s a relatively small sample, Gibson has enjoyed quite a bit of success against the Mavericks. At the very least, it’s a big body who can provide important minutes still absent from the Chicago rotation and I think Gibson could be missed more against this type of opponent than others.

The Mavericks/Bulls battle should be one of the best on tonight’s NBA ticket. I have no issue with the number being where it is, but I do believe the matchup favors the visitors, and I really like the fact that floor general Nelson is apparently ready to resume his point guard duties this evening. The trends sure don’t hurt, so I’ll be taking my chances with the Mavericks this time around.
 
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Jim Feist

Comp NBA Pick for Tuesday, December 2, 2014: 7:35 PM EST

(503) BOSTON CELTICS VS (504) ATLANTA HAWKS

Take: over the total.

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Tuesday, December 2, 2014 is in the NBA scheduled game between the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks. Boston heads out on the road with a much better offense than a year ago (103.4 ppg, 10th in the NBA) but the defense has been terrible, 28th in the league allowing 107.6 ppg. They just gave up 111 points at home in a loss to San Antonio. The over is 21-6 in the Celtics last 27 vs. the Eastern Conference, and 21-7 over the total overall. Atlanta has a fine offense, 9th in the league in scoring and third in assists. Both teams are terrific at dishing out assists, but Atlanta has defensive problems, too, 23rd in the NBA allowing 101.5 ppg. Paul Millsap scored 18 points, Mike Scott added 14 and the Atlanta Hawks handed the Charlotte Hornets a ninth straight loss with a 105-75 victory on Saturday night. Atlanta is 8-3 over the total against the Eastern Conference and 15-5 over after a blowout win of 15 or more points. Both clubs are rested so look for a run-and-gun offensive show. Play Boston/Atlanta Over the total.
 
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Ben Burns

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets

Bonus Play Under

With all due respect to these offenses, I believe this number will prove to be a little too high.

Both this season's previous meetings finished above the number. Those O/U lines were considerably lower than this one though.

Portland games are averaging just 200.4 points on the season. The "under" is 9-5 when the Blazers were favored and 3-0 when they played with an O/U line of 210 or greater.

Don't be surprised if those stats improve this evening. Consider the Under.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 14 - Post: 10:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$4600 - NON WINNERS $12,500 LIFETIME. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD TRAINER CHANGE HN 3 B.WILFONG TO B.LANGLEY


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 NIRVANA GEAR 2/1


# 2 FLYING MINDALE 6/1


# 4 INDOMITABLE SPIRIT 12/1


NIRVANA GEAR positively should be supported as the contender to beat in this one. Many selectors support this filly on the driver-conditioner figures alone. Wrenn will be looking to score in this race, has been tough as nails most recently. Win clip this last month is a sparkling 35. The 1 slot is on fire here at Northfield Park. More wins than the expected average. FLYING MINDALE - Extremely profitable driver-conditioner team, with a 21 ROI when working with one another. Sometimes you just have to go with a feeling, back this one's chances. INDOMITABLE SPIRIT - The trainer/horse combination statistics point out that this match are solid in the money finishers when working with one another. Earned a 71 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out. A duplicate effort here should get the ultimate prize in this event.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rosecroft Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Post: 6:57 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$6200 - FILLIES & MARES NW $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR $800 PER START IN 2014 NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER ROSECROFT TRACKMAN SELECTIONS: 7-6-3-8


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 JUNKYARD TREASURE 6/1


# 8 AINT GOT A HOME 9/2


# 4 RAQUEL 7/2


JUNKYARD TREASURE looks nice to best this field of horses. Composite pace figures show this harness racer has what it takes to score in this one. Don't let a race horse with such a bang-up winning statistic like this be passed over. AINT GOT A HOME - Tomlinson knows this fine animal well. Stellar in the money history when starting with one another. The 80 avg class rating may give this mare a distinct advantage in the field. RAQUEL - Good for a win bet just off the outstanding prior class ratings. Have to like this solid standardbred.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 2. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 CHANNEL QUEST 5/2


# 1 BUY WITH GOLD 7/2


# 3 PICO PICO 10/1


CHANNEL QUEST is the most respectable wager in this race. Strong average Speed Figures in dirt route races make this horse a definite contender. Has formidable early lick and ought to fare solidly versus this group of animals. Must be given a shot given the class of races run as of late. BUY WITH GOLD - Newell has this gelding travelling well and is a strong pick based on the decent Equibase Speed Figs earned in route races lately. Newell has well above average dividends at this distance/surface. PICO PICO - Zielinski has him trained strongly to break sharply out of the gate. He has been running solidly recently while recording sharp speed figures.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $4700 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 1, 2014. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 GLENCO KID 5/2


# 1 RUN ATOM 9/2


# 4 NEIL HEALY 7/2


GLENCO KID looks to be a very good contender. His 76 average has this gelding with among the strongest speed figures in this race. Since this horse changes blinkers - on - there is a very strong chance for a speed improvement in today's race. Has ran admirably in dirt route races. RUN ATOM - Will most likely go to the lead and may never look back. Garnered a formidable speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. NEIL HEALY - Is difficult not to look at given the company run in lately. The speed figure of 80 from his latest race looks very strong in here.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:07pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 KISS THE DADDY (ML=8/5)
#2 TO COMMERCIAL (ML=4/1)


KISS THE DADDY - Stalking speed. My chums and I like this horse. I like this filly. Has the topmost earnings per start in this event. Last raced at Parx Racing in a race with a class rating of 89. Dropping drastically in Equibase class figure this time around puts her in a solid position in this race. TO COMMERCIAL - I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a return. This one absolutely loves this surface. All her wins have been here at Parx Racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PODEROSA (ML=2/1), #6 LUCKYNEVA (ML=6/1), #3 ATHENA IN FLIGHT (ML=8/1),

PODEROSA - Difficult to put any cash on this filly on the top end. Likes to finish in the money though. LUCKYNEVA - Will be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the possibly overvalued contestants list. ATHENA IN FLIGHT - I don't see this racer doing too much off of the extended layoff. She probably needs a race or two to get back into fine shape. Hard to play this filly today since the event isn't limited to three year olds.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #1 KISS THE DADDY on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 3:38pm - Optional Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 102

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 DAKOTA MAC (ML=8/1)
#4 NAJRAN BREEZE (ML=9/2)
#7 CUZAN (ML=5/2)


DAKOTA MAC - Carreno comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last race. Ranked numero uno in (EPS) earnings per start. Another indication that this horse has class. I think that the addition of blinks today will keep his mind on the race at hand. NAJRAN BREEZE - Jockey and conditioner do well when they are put together. Richard and Chambers have been steady together. CUZAN - I like when a horse wins after shipping in from elsewhere. It shows that they really like the track here. I'll take this gelding to win again. I think this gelding is coming into top form. Wolochuk brings him right back. I suggest you stay with this strong gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NO IT AIN'T (ML=7/2), #1 POP MUSIC (ML=5/1), #5 SONGANDABULLET (ML=6/1),

NO IT AIN'T - Today's event is 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint clash in the last couple months. Not the best of omens. POP MUSIC - Registered a quite unimpressive speed figure last time out in a $12,500 Optional Claiming race on Nov 11th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig. SONGANDABULLET - The third place finish in the last affair was not that great.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 DAKOTA MAC is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Finger Lakes (2nd) Seriously Sharp, 7-2
(6th) Western Jet, 10-1


Mahoning Valley (1st) Candy Chant, 9-2
(3rd) Brigade, 7-2


Parx Racing (3rd) Distinctive Lady, 4-1
(6th) One for Don, 6-1


Turf Paradise (2nd) Small Moves, 4-1
(6th) Warrensmysterydice, 3-1
 
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GoodFella Tuesday NBA Bullet Points

Atlanta -7 vs Boston (211)

This is the 1st meeting between these clubs this season. They split 4 meetings last season, both SU & ATS. The Celts are floundering of late, just (1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS L/8) & are coming off getting boat-raced by 22 points at HOME to the Spurs on Sunday. The Celtics are just (3-6-1 ATS L/10) when playing on 1 day of rest. The Hawks are heading in the opposite direction of the Celts, as they have won 4 of 5 SU & ATS & they’re coming off a 30 pt blow-out HOME win over the floundering Hornets on Saturday. The Hawks are just (3-12 ATS L/15) when playing on 2 days of rest. This is the Hawks 4th & final game of their 7 day home-stand tonight. They head out on the road & play AT the Heat tomorrow night. The UNDER has cashed in 6 of L/7 games between these clubs. The public will clearly be all over the Hawks here & I have a lean to the Celtics (especially if +7.5 or +8 pops up later in the day).

Oklahoma City -2.5 AT New Orleans (195.5)

This is the 1st meeting between these clubs this evening. The Thunder were (2-1 SU & ATS) last season vs the Pelicans & these teams split the two meetings AT New Orleans (both SU & ATS). The Thunder are playing their 1st game of their 3 game East Coast roadie tonight & they’re coming off a 27 pt blow-out win at HOME over the Knicks on Friday night. That game was all-star Russell Westbrook’s 1st game back from injury & he went bonkers against the Knicks. The word is that the Thunder are due to get back their other stud Kevin Durant back for tonight’s game (upgraded to probable for tonight as of now). The Thunder are (2-5 ATS L/7) games when playing on at least 3 days of rest & the UNDER has cashed in 5 of 7 on said 3 days of rest or more. The Pelicans are back home for a quick 1 game home-stand tonight, before heading back out on the road for a 3 game West Coast roadie that starts Thursday AT Golden St. The Pelicans are really struggling of late. They’re just (1-4 SU L/5) & are coming off a tough (83-80) loss AT Washington (No Nene) as 4 pt dogs on Saturday. The Pelicans are (1-6 ATS L/7) playing on 2 days of rest & the UNDER is (5-1-1) on said 2 days of rest. With out question most of the free world will be on the short road favs OKC Thunder here, & especially when/if it’s “officially announced” that Durant is indeed a go for tonight. I have a very early small lean to the UNDER here, myself (for now).

Tuesday NBA 1st Half Play

DALLAS MAVS +0.5 (@BOL)

Tough spot here schedule wise for the Bulls tonight. Their 1st game back home off their “annual very lengthy circus in town roadie”. The Mavs one of the leagues top road teams, too. Smaller personal play on the Mavs 1st half for me & definitely like Dallas for the full game as well.
 
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NHL

Tuesday, December 2

Trend Report

7:00 PM
NASHVILLE vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Nashville's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
Carolina is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Nashville

7:00 PM
NEW JERSEY vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Jersey's last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games

7:00 PM
OTTAWA vs. NY ISLANDERS
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
Ottawa is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Islanders last 6 games when playing Ottawa
NY Islanders are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Ottawa

7:00 PM
VANCOUVER vs. WASHINGTON
Vancouver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Vancouver is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games

7:30 PM
DALLAS vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home

7:30 PM
FLORIDA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games
Florida is 3-4-3 SU in its last 10 games ,when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

7:30 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. BUFFALO
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

9:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. CALGARY
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona

10:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN JOSE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Jose
Philadelphia is 1-6-1 SU in its last 8 games ,when playing on the road against San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 7 games at home
San Jose is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

10:30 PM
BOSTON vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Los Angeles is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
 

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