Tuesday 11/18/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NCAAB

Baylor lost three starters from LY's 26-12 team; they beat South Carolina 66-64 at home LY, despite missing 19 of 41 FTs. Bears are smaller than usual, so they'll play faster. Carolina has four starters back from 14-20 team that went 5-13 in SEC; they turned ball over 21.3% of possessions LY, 320th out of 351 teams in country. Their guards are better now.

Wichita State has three starters back from 35-1 team that went 18-0 in Valley, but lost to Kentucky in second round of NCAAs; they've won 65 games last two years, but were 0-11 from arc in 71-54 opening win over New Mexico State. Memphis has totally inexperienced guards; none of them have played a minute of college basketball going into this game.

San Diego State averaged 27.8 wins last five years; they've got three of its starters back from LY's 31-5 team, are little thin with injuries right now. Utah has 4 starters back from 21-12 team that went 9-9 in Pac-12; they never trailed in 71-54 opening win over Ball State, even with Cardinals making 10-22 from arc. Aztecs beat Northridge 79-58 in their opener.

Toledo has four starters back from 27-7 team that went 14-4 in MAC but lost in conference tourney; they held NAU to 33% from floor in their opening 71-58, outscoring Lumberjacks 22-8 from line. VCU made 11-29 from arc, 24-40 from line in 85-69 win over Tennessee; Rams forced 19 turnovers, but also turned ball over 18 times themselves.

Richmond beat Old Dominion by 8-27-9 points in last three meetings in what used to be CAA rivalry; Monarchs made 8-15 from arc in 76-56 win over UNCW in its opener. ODU has four starters back from 18-18 team that went 9-7 in its first year in C-USA. Richmond has 3 starters back from 19-14 team that went 8-8 in A-14.

Saint Louis lost all five starters from team that won 81 games last three seasons; Billikens were 8-15 from arc in 62-59 opening win vs Southern Illinois Friday; this is one of only two true road games for SLU before Jan 6. Indiana State lost its top two scorers and another starters from its 23-11 team LY. Sycamores needed OT to beat IUPUI in its opener.

Long Beach State always overschedules in pre-conference play; they've got four starters back from 15-17 team that went 10-6 in Big West- they get immediate help inside from FGCU transfer McKnight. 49ers lost by 5 at BYU in opener, despite making 13-22 from arc. Xavier hammered Northern Arizona in opener; they've got six returnees, six freshmen.

Michigan State struggled to beat Navy 64-59 in opener, shooting only 10 FTs; Izzo's teams often struggle out of gate, as he gears them towards the postseason. Spartans lost by 10 to Duke in '13 NCAAs, in last meeting. Duke has one of best freshman in country (Okafor); they made 47.2% of its 3-pointers in first two games. Competition here will be little stiffer.

Ohio State has three starters back from 25-10 team that went 10-8 in Big 14; Buckeyes averaged 29.6 wins last five years, but lost its top 3 scorers from LY. Marquette has new coach, lost 71% of scoring from LY, 82% of 3-point shooting from 17-15 team that was 9-9 in Big East- they won opener over UT-Martin, making 10-23 from arc, forcing 19 turnovers.

Minnesota lost its opener to Louisville in helicopter hangar last week in Puerto Rico, putting Cards on foul line 42 times; Gophers have 4 starters back from 25-13 team. Western Kentucky beat Austin Pay 77-70 in its opener, after being down 10 in first half. Hilltoppers have four starters back from 20-12 team that is moving up to C-USA this season.

Kentucky struggled a little with Buffalo Sunday; they were down 5 at the half before winning 71-52, holding Bulls to 14 second half points. UK is really talented, but is playing two 5-man units, which has to be hard to manage. Kansas beat UCSB making just 2-10 from but getting to line 32 times. Can young Jayhawks get to line 32 times against Kentucky?

LaSalle won opener 57-52 over Colgate (was 22-21 at half); Explorers are middle of pack team in A-14- their two transfers combined to go 0-7 on arc in opener, not what was expected. Quinnipiac beat Yale in double OT in its opener, shooting just 5-19 from arc. Four starters played 41:00+ in that game. Bobcats lost three starters from LY's 20-12 team.

Murray State lost opener 77-74 as 12-point favorite to Houston; Racers were +7 in turnovers, were just 6-25 from arc. Murray has four starters back from 23-11 team that won CIT title. Middle Tennessee lost four of its starters from 24-9 team that went 13-3 in first year in C-USA. Blue Raiders won 80-62 at Murray LY, shooting 55% inside arc, 5-10 on it.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Betting Recap - Week 12
By Daniel Dobish

Overall Notes

College Football Week 12 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-13
Against the Spread 21-28-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 32-18
Against the Spread 25-24-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 23-27

The largest underdog to cash
Northwestern (+17, ML +700) at Notre Dame, 43-40 (in OT)

The largest favorite to cash
Western Michigan (-27) vs Eastern Michigan, 51-7

Top 25 Notes
-- It was a rough day for teams in the Top 10, particularly against the spread. Alabama-Mississippi State faced each other, and Top 10 teams finished 4-3 SU. Worse, only one Top 10 team covered in seven games, with the only cover coming in that head-to-head matchup between the Tide and Bulldogs.

-- Marshall kept its sheet clean with another impressive victory, topping Rice 44-21. The Thundering Herd is now 10-0 SU, and they have covered eight of their past nine.

-- Notre Dame slipped up at home against Northwestern by a 43-40 score in overtime, and the Irish have gone from national title contenders to has-beens in a matter of two weeks (and two losses).

-- In the game of the day, Florida State did their usual disappearing act in the first half, only to storm back in Miami for a second-half comeback and win. The 'Noles weren't covering until the final 3:05 of regulation. The Seminoles are still just 3-7 ATS this season.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- It was a disastrous day in the ACC, and one which could have been even worse had FSU fallen. ... Georgia Tech took advantage of an injury to Clemson QB DeShaun Watson in the first quarter, rambling to a 28-6 win over the wreck that is the Tigers and backup QB Cole Stoudt. The Jackets have erupted for four straight wins and covers since Oct. 18. ... Duke did something they have rarely done over the past two seasons - beat themselves. They blew a fourth-quarter lead and fell 17-16 at home, knocking them out of the driver's seat in the Coastal Division. ... North Carolina State became bowl eligible by throttling Wake Forest 42-13. The Wolfpack have now covered three of the past four, and they're 6-3 ATS over the past nine.

-- There were just three games in the Big 12, and the underdog covered in two. ... Texas Christian was behind at half at lowly Kansas, and needed second-half heroics to scratch out an uninspiring 34-30 win. Playoff committee is likely NOT impressed. ... Oklahoma was without injured QB Trevor Knight, but they still won 42-30 on the road at Texas Tech. The Sooners are just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS over the past six games. The best trend for Boomer Sooner is the 'over' has cashed in six of their past seven.

-- It a solid day for the Big Ten, with road teams going 3-2 SU in league games and home teams going 3-2 ATS. ... As mentioned, Northwestern scored their big road win in South Bend, and Penn State stepped out of conference and handled its business against Temple, 30-13. ... Wisconsin covered its game against Nebraska thanks in large part to RB Melvin Gordon, who rambled for an FBS-record 408 rushing yards.

-- It was a weekend of the dog in the Pac-12. Underdogs went 2-2 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS. Washington nearly pulled the road upset, losing 27-26 at Arizona. ... Meanwhile, Arizona State fumbled away its chances at a spot in the four-team playoff, losing outright at Oregon State, 35-27. The Beavers entered the game 0-4 SU/ATS over the past four. ... Utah scored another impressive win at Stanford, tripping up the Cardinal 20-17 in double-overtime. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their past six games, and 8-2 ATS in their 10 games overall.

-- It was an upside-down day in the SEC. It all started in the Swamp, as the heat is back on Florida coach Will Muschamp after a brief stay of execution. South Carolina had a feel-good moment, winning 23-20 in OT in the Swamp, cashing as 6.5-point 'dogs. ... Speaking of 'dogs, Mississippi State didn't have much bark early, going down 19-0 at Alabama. Of course, anyone who liked the Bulldogs getting 10 enjoyed the final minute. See bad beats below. ... Georgia roughed up Auburn, who started the season as cover kings, but now cannot even come close. The Tigers are an uncharacteristic 1-4 ATS over the past five, and 2-6 ATS over the past eight.

Mid-Major Report

-- Not many people figured Memphis would amount to much this season, but the Tigers continue to roll on. They romped 38-7 at Tulane to stay on track for a New Year's Day bowl game. The Tigers are 4-2 SU on the road, and 4-1-1 ATS. ... UCF started the season slow while trying to replace QB Blake Bortles. They'll finally hitting on all cylinders at just the right time. The Knights rubbed out Tulsa 31-7 on Friday, and they're now 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over the past seven.

-- In Conference USA, Marshall keeps mowing 'em down. Rice came in 6-0 SU/ATS over the past six, so the Herd's 41-14 win is that much more impressive. ... Don't look now, but Texas-El Paso is bowl eligible, and they're starting to be a favorite of bettors. Over the past five games, UTEP is 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS. They travel to Rice Friday.

-- The Mountain West was the upset west Saturday. The only favorite to cover was Air Force, and they needed overtime to shed Nevada, 45-38. Quietly, and I mean VERY quietly, Air Force finds themselves at 8-2 SU. They have won four straight, and the Falcons have covered the past three. ... Hawaii has had trouble on the mainland this season, going 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS in four previous trips. However, they ended all of that misery with a surprising 13-0 win at San Jose State. ... Boise State turned back San Diego State 38-29, but despite a five-game win streak, they have failed to cover in three of the past four. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 in the past five for the Broncs.

-- Appalachian State pulled off an upset as a 15-point underdog, taking down Arkansas State in Jonesboro by a 37-32 score. After starting the season 1-5 SU/ATS, the Mountaineers have rattled off four straight wins and they're 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is also 4-1 in their past five. ... Troy looked to be dead in the water Oct. 30 in an uninspired 42-10 loss at Georgia Southern. However, the Trojans have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they're 3-1 ATS over the past four. Over the past seven, they're 5-2 ATS.

Bad Beats

-- In that marquee matchup in the SEC, Mississippi State struck with 15 seconds left to pull within five points, covering a 10-point number, and therefore turning Tide bettors' winning tickets into a loss.

-- Some bettors might have had long faces at the end of the Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe game. Some bettors might have had the spread at 6.5 points, and therefore were perfectly content. However, if you were laying a full seven, the WarHawks struck with 1:47 left in regulation to close a 34-20 lead to just seven, turning a cover into a push.

-- If you had the 'over' (52.5) in the New Mexico-Utah State, you were left shaking your head. USU lead 21-14 at halftime, and the there are 42 total points midway through the third quarter. Then, the defense kicked in and over the final 22:35 of the game, the teams combined for a total of just seven points and a shocking under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 12
By Mike Rose

Week 12 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Mississippi State (L-W vs. Alabama 25-20)
The Bulldogs were the biggest regular season dog a #1 team has ever been, but they were never good enough to beat the Tide.

2) Oregon (Bye)

3) Florida State (W-W vs. Miami 30-26)
Say what you want about the Noles, but Jameis Winston is 23-0 as a starter, and FSU has scored 30+ points in all 23 of those games.

4) TCU (W-L vs. Kansas 34-30)
It will be interesting to see whether the committee punishes TCU for barely escaping Lawrence.

5) Alabama (W-W vs. Mississippi State 25-20)
Almost surely, Alabama is the next one-loss team to hop FSU. The Tide could be the #1 team in the land on Tuesday.

6) Arizona State (L-L vs. Oregon State 35-27)
For as quickly as the Pac-12 rose in the rankings, it's time to bid Arizona State adieu.

7) Baylor (Bye)


8) Ohio State (W-L vs. Minnesota 31-24)
The Buckeyes are playing some of the best football in the country, and the selection committee will have a tough time leaving them out if they finish 12-1.

9) Auburn (L-L vs. Georgia 34-7)
We never thought we'd see the day that Gus Malzahn's offense was shut out for three straight quarters.

10) Ole Miss (Bye)

11) UCLA (Bye)

12) Michigan State (W-W vs. Maryland 37-15)
Jeremy Langford had another 138 yards and two scores on the ground for Sparty.

13) Kansas State (Bye)

14) Arizona (W-L vs. Washington 27-26)
The Cats have now won two games on the last play this year.

15) Georgia (W-W vs. Auburn 34-7)
We know we won't see three-loss Georgia in the playoff, but the Bulldogs now have put the pressure on Missouri in the SEC East.

16) Nebraska (L-L vs. Wisconsin 59-24)
The Fire Bo Pelini watch is officially on again.

17) LSU (L-L vs. Arkansas 17-0)
Hangover from the Alabama game really caught up with the Bayou Bengals.

18) Notre Dame (L-L vs. Northwestern 43-40)
The wheels have officially fallen off the bus in South Bend.

19) Clemson (L-L vs. Georgia Tech 28-6)
Deshaun Watson's season is over in all likelihood after suffering a knee injury.

20) Wisconsin (W-W vs. Nebraska 59-24)
Melvin Gordon broke the FBS record for rushing yards in a game with 408.

21) Duke (L-L vs. Virginia Tech 17-16)
The Dookies need to win out now to win the ACC Coastal Division for a second straight year.

22) Georgia Tech (W-W vs. Clemson 28-6)
The Ramblin' Wreck are in the clubhouse at 6-2 in the ACC Coastal.

23) Utah (W-W vs. Stanford 20-17)
The Utes are now 4-0 against the California teams in the Pac-12 this year.

24) Texas A&M (L-L vs. Missouri 34-27)
Allowing 28 points in the third quarter will knock A&M out of the Top 25 as quickly as it got into it.

25) Minnesota (L-W vs. Ohio State 31-24)
Give the Gophers credit for hanging in there against an OSU team which is one of the best in America on a snowy day in Minneapolis.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 12
By Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 12th college football weekend as the season heads to the final few weeks. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Northern Illinois (-3½) 27, Toledo 24: Toledo wound up with more yardage in the big Tuesday night MAC West showdown, but Northern Illinois stays on top in the division for another season. It was not enough to cover the spread as the Huskies pulled in front 27-17 with just over six minutes to go in the game to seal the deal, but Toledo would score a touchdown to get back within three with just over two minutes to go. The on-side kick attempt failed and the Rockets did not get the ball back until there was just three seconds left on the clock.

Cincinnati (+1) 54, East Carolina 46: A shootout was expected Thursday night in this AAC clash and the game did not disappoint. Cincinnati was up 38-20 early in the third quarter, but the Pirates were within four early in the fourth quarter and things got wild in the final five minutes. Cincinnati completed a 12-play, 92-yard touchdown drive to seemingly put the game away with less than five minutes to go, leading by 11. East Carolina scored in just over a minute to get within five, failing on the two-point conversion and kicking it deep. That move paid off as Cincinnati opted to go for it on fourth down, fumbling and setting the Pirates up in great position. Two pass interference penalties helped the cause as East Carolina found the end zone leading 46-45 after another failed two-point try. Cincinnati had just over a minute left to work with, but they moved into field goal range and got the go-ahead kick from 47 yards with just 15 seconds left on the clock. In the final play scramble, the Bearcats scooped the loose ball and returned it for a touchdown to pas the final score as well, though the play did not impact the spread or total.

USC (-14) 38, California 30: The Bears are the perfect team for backdoor covers so no one on favored USC Thursday night should have been surprised that a 31-2 lead late in the second quarter was not safe. Cal would score a touchdown just before halftime and then scored the only points of the third quarter to climb within 15 points. The spread on the game briefly touched 15 during the week but most lines were either at 14 or 14½, setting up the late drama. USC sealed the outcome with a fourth quarter touchdown to lead by 22, but Cal would get back within 15 with six minutes to go and then complete an 80-yard drive with just under two minutes to go to score the underdog win.

North Carolina (-2½) 40, Pittsburgh 35: The Panthers stormed out to a 14-0 first quarter lead in Chapel Hill, but the Tar Heels rallied back getting within two by the end of the third quarter, trailing 28-26. After forcing a punt, North Carolina scored early in the fourth quarter as quarterback Marquise Williams rushed for 45 yards to put the Tar Heels up by six after a successful two-point conversion. Pittsburgh eventually answered to take the lead back with less than four minutes remaining, leading by one. North Carolina put together the drive of its season, going 75 yards in 13 plays including a big fourth down conversion as the Tar Heels took a five-point lead with less than a minute to go in the game. Pittsburgh quarterback Chad Voytik gave the Panthers late hope scrambling to midfield to set-up at least a final heave or two to the end zone, but he was hit hard by converging defenders and the ball popped out to end the game as the Tar Heels stole a late win in what may have been a post-season elimination game.

Penn State (-10½) 30, Temple 13: Penn State seemed to take control of this game, breaking open what was a 6-6 game late into the third quarter with a long touchdown run in a rare two-play scoring drive for the Lions. An interception set up the Lions inside the Temple 10-yard line just a minute later and Penn State took advantage to up 20-6. The scoring spree continued to the chagrin of ‘under’ players on one of the lowest totals on the board Saturday as Temple delivered a 75-yard touchdown on first down to get with seven as 24 points were scored in less than two minutes of game clock. An interception return touchdown put Penn State past the spread early in the fourth quarter and the ‘over’ hit with a Penn State field goal a few minutes later as the Lions became bowl eligible.

Ohio State (-11½) 31, Minnesota 24: In frigid conditions in Minneapolis, Minnesota rallied back to tie Ohio State at 14-14 late in the second quarter, but Ohio State scored the next 17 points, leading 31-14 early in the fourth quarter and sitting past the favorite spread that dropped sharply Saturday morning. The Gophers were handed a short field a few minutes later and took advantage with a touchdown to get within 10 and then ultimately added a late field goal to seal the underdog cover in a game that was rarely as close as the final score represents as two Minnesota touchdowns came on drives of fewer than 40 yards.

Rutgers (-10) 45, Indiana 23: This line jumped on game day and the favorite Rutgers appeared to be in trouble, trailing 16-10 into the third quarter. Rutgers scored three consecutive touchdowns in the final nine minutes of the third quarter to lead 31-16 heading into the final frame, aided by back-to-back turnovers from the Hoosiers. Indiana went 80 yards on its next drive to climb within the spread early in the fourth quarter, but Rutgers answered with a big pass play and then added another late touchdown to create a bit of a misleading final as Indiana won the yardage battle in this Big Ten clash.

Virginia Tech (+3½) 17, Duke 16: Despite limited production, Duke appeared on its way to another win as they led 16-7 late in the third quarter scoring on drives of 51, 66, 28, and 43 yards while Virginia Tech went 98 yards on their lone scoring drive. The Hokies got a break with a turnover late in the third and despite going backwards they managed a field goal to get within six points entering the final frame. On the ensuing kickoff Duke fumbled, setting up Virginia Tech in great field position again and the Hokies converted It into a touchdown to lead 17-16 early in the fourth quarter. Duke punted on its next two possessions and then playing with the lead and facing fourth-and-long from near midfield the Hokies went for a fake punt, picking up 10 yards but not enough to extend the drive. With some momentum and good field position, Duke went right down the field but a 40-yard go-ahead field goal missed. Duke still had its timeouts and after forcing a punt the Blue Devils were given another change with two minutes to go and starting again in good field position. The Hokies stepped up on defense with back-to-back sacks to force Duke to go for it on fourth-and-21 and Virginia Tech held on for the minor upset.

Air Force (-3) 45, Nevada 38: The Mountain West clash was an entertaining back-and-forth game that featured five ties and neither team scoring consecutively. Air Force led by seven at the end of every quarter, but Nevada always answered tying the game with a field goal from just 22 yards with 12 seconds left as the Wolf Pack could not find the end zone for the win. Air Force actually attempted a 61-yard field goal at the end of regulation, ignoring the lesson from Nick Saban last season, but no harm was done. In overtime, Air Force went first and cashed in with a touchdown and that would hold for the win and cover for the favorite as Nevada could not answer.

South Alabama (-5½) 24, Texas State 20: Not many teams can survive a -4 turnover deficit and covering as a favorite with that disadvantage is nearly impossible. South Alabama would rally from an early deficit to tie this game at 17-17 early in the second half and by a few minutes into the fourth quarter that Jaguars had a seven-point lead, past the slight home favorite spread. After an interception, Texas State was handed a golden opportunity to tie the game with great field position, but with just over four minutes to go the Bobcats opted for the field goal rather than going for it on fourth-and-9. Those backing the underdog were grateful with the margin down to four points after the successful kick and the strategy actually did work as the Texas State defense forced a punt and the Bobcats had the ball back at the 45-yard line with plenty of time to work with. With the underdog cover in hand, Texas State ran six plays from inside the South Alabama 20-yard line in the final seconds, but they could not get the job done.

Oklahoma (-13½) 42, Texas Tech 30: There has not been much for Texas Tech to feel good about this season, but perhaps there is some solace in the fact that they cost a lot of Oklahoma supporters money with a late score on Saturday. Texas Tech actually led this game 24-21 early in the fourth quarter and the yardage was nearly equal, but Oklahoma scored three consecutive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to open up an 18-point lead. On the final play of the game, Texas Tech connected for a touchdown on a 39-yard pass play, meaningless in the Big XII contest, but very meaningful to the spread.

South Carolina (+7) 23, Florida 20: South Carolina stormed out to a 10-0 lead against Florida, but the Gamecocks would not have a drive longer than 34 yards for the rest of the game. The Gators led 17-10 late in the third quarter and appeared poised to add more points before a fumble in South Carolina territory. Later in the final quarter, Florida lined up for a 32-yard field goal to seemingly put the game away with less than four minutes to go. The kick was blocked to leave the margin right on the number. South Carolina was forced to go for it on fourth down near midfield and the Gators got the stop to take over with just over two minutes to go. South Carolina held on defense to force a punt and incredibly that kick was also blocked setting up the Gamecocks with a great chance to extend the game, though with less than 40 seconds left. A pass interference call helped South Carolina, but then the Gamecocks fumbled to seemingly give away the chance to tie. The bounces went South Carolina’s way as Mike Davis recovered in the end zone for the tying score. In overtime, Florida had to settle for a field goal while South Carolina stole the outright win with a touchdown as Florida found yet another incredible way to lose a game. The Gators had eight drives in regulation into South Carolina territory to only post 17 points while South Carolina failed to cross the 40-yard line on 10 of 11 drives after taking a 10-0 lead until getting the blocked punt.

Florida State (-2) 30, Miami, FL 26: Miami led 16-0 early in this game and 23-7 in the second quarter, but in a comeback you could see coming a mile away, Florida State rallied as they have done all season. The undefeated Seminoles climbed to within three points early in the fourth quarter and Miami also had to settle for a field goal to keep the margin at just one score. Florida State hit a long 53-yard field goal to get back within three and then a Miami offense that struggled and went conservative in the second half had to give the Seminoles the ball back. With just over three minutes to go, Dalvin Cook broke free for a 26-yard touchdown run to put Florida State up by four, past the small road favorite spread. Miami moved into Florida State territory on its final drive, but a fourth down interception sealed another win for the Seminoles.

Alabama (-10) 25, Mississippi State 20: The Tide stormed out to a 19-0 lead in Saturday’s big showcase game with the SEC West potentially on the line. None of the drives were of substantial yardage as Mississippi State wound up soundly out-gaining Alabama for game. Mississippi State had to settle for two short field goals in the middle of the game, but finally broke through with a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to trim the deficit to just six points. Alabama answered with its best drive of the game to push the lead back up to 12 points. Mississippi State appeared poised to get right back in the game, but a solid drive ended in a red zone interception. The Bulldogs would add a late touchdown for a backdoor cover, but with just 15 seconds to go there was not enough time to keep the undefeated season alive.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Who's Next in Gainesville?
By Brian Edwards

The Will Muschamp Era at the University of Florida came to an end early Sunday, less than 24 hours after the Gators suffered a second unfathomable loss at home this season.

The first came to LSU in October when UF dropped a touchdown pass, gave up a bomb on 3rd and 25, threw an interception while nearly in field-goal range and gave up a 50-yard game-winning field with three seconds remaining. All of those aforementioned mistakes came in the final three minutes of a game the Gators had no business losing.

A similar array of mind-boggling errors occurred Saturday against the Gamecocks. A holding call wiped out a Treon Harris TD run that would've put UF ahead by a 24-10 score with about two minutes left. Moments later, South Carolina blocked a field goal.

But UF's defense, as it had all day against one of the SEC's most prolific offenses and for nearly all of Muschamp's four-year tenure, got a stop that should've ensured the victory. The Gators couldn't get a game-icing first down, however, and were forced to punt with about 35 seconds remaining.

South Carolina had zero timeouts left so as long as the punt got off, Steve Spurrier's offense would need to go about 75-85 yards in 30 seconds. If the Gamecocks were fortunate, they'd get to about midfield and have a chance for a Hail Mary play.

UF, which hasn't blocked a kick in 19 games, couldn't get the punt off, though. In fact, in what had to be a max-protect scenario, a South Carolina player came right up the middle untouched to make the block.

Several plays later, Spurrier took a huge risk. On second down, Florida was expecting a pass because a failed run would mean the end of the game. Surely Spurrier would throw to ensure two more chances, right?

Wrong. From the far hash, Spurrier called an option play. Granted, it was to the short side, so Mike Davis might have a chance to go out of bounds to stop the clock if he couldn't get in the end zone.

Dylan Thompson moved left and made a late pitch to Davis, who bobbled the ball and it bounced into the end zone. During Muschamp's reign in Gainesville, not many bounces have gone his way.

Naturally, this one didn't either. Davis recovered for a touchdown. In overtime, the offense couldn't muster a first down -- naturally. It settled for a field goal and a 20-17 UF lead.

Several plays later, Thompson scampered into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown. From the beginning to the bitter end, Muschamp couldn't catch a break.

In Year 1, senior QB John Brantley was injured in the first half of a close game against Alabama when UF was sporting a 4-0 record. Brantley would be out for a month and was never really healthy again until leading the Gators to a New Year's Day bowl win over Ohio St.

In Year 2, Muschamp led UF to an 11-1 regular-season record and it missed out on playing for the national title by one game. And, some could argue, if USC's Matt Barkley would've been health for that one game against Notre Dame, the Trojans would've beaten the Irish to send the Gators to Miami to face 'Bama for all the marbles.

In Year 3, everybody got hurt, including the top two QBs. The rash of injuries was so catastrophic that even a loss to Georgia Southern was looked over by AD Jeremy Foley and any rational/sane Gator fan (I concede that doesn't account for the majority).

Everyone, Muschamp included, knew 2014 was the make-or-break campaign. And the Gators lost to LSU and South Carolina at home by inventing ways to lose, not to mention falling to Missouri by a 42-13 count at The Swamp.

Spurrier lost five games by 25 combined points in his 12-year tenure at UF. Muschamp lost to Missouri by 29 points. Muschamp lost six of his last eight home games.

That just about covers it. There's no need to get into how inept the offense has been for five years running, including the last season of Urban Meyer's tenure.

Muschamp is a good man and a brilliant defensive mind. He stated at his intro presser that "there are no five-year plans in the SEC," so he understands the reality of what Foley was forced to do. Muschamp will be one of the country's highest-paid defensive coordinators next season, and he'll get another quality head-coaching gig in the next 3-4 years, maybe sooner.

I've said many times that Foley has more job security than any other AD in America, but that's not the case anymore. UF has a new incoming president with zero ties to Foley.

He has made four significant hires since taking over as AD nearly a quarter-century ago. The first was Billy Donovan, perhaps the greatest hire in the history of college basketball. The second was Ron Zook, a predictable bust. The third was Meyer, who Foley beat Notre Dame to by making the early call to can Zook. The fourth was Muschamp.

If Foley misses on this hire, he'll be batting 2-for-5 (.400). But this isn't baseball and a .400 average doesn't get you to the Hall of Fame. It gets you a ticket out of Gainesville.

Foley can't roll the dice here. Zook and Muschamp had never been head coaches before, so you know Foley will only go the route of a proven winner.

Bovada has made odds for the next Florida head coach. Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy is the 4/1 'chalk.' He has turned down Tennessee and Arkansas before, but those flirtations verified a reported riff between he and his AD, one that T-Boone Pickens has worked hard to massage.

Gundy can be had in my opinion, but he won't be the first choice. Foley has made hard runs at Oklahoma's Bob Stoops in 2002 and 2004, but the timing wasn't right. From everything I've gathered, Foley didn't even look Stoops's way during the search that landed Muschamp, so maybe he won't give Stoops a chance to say no for a third time?

Then again, the timing seems perfect here. And, as noted above, Foley is under more pressure this time. Most important, Stoops is under pressure to win at OU now, and a fresh start less than 90 minutes from his Florida beach home could be just what the doctor ordered to revive his coaching juices. Bovada has Stoops with 11/2 odds.

Colorado State's Jim McElwain has the second-shortest odds (9/2), but I don't see that happening. Mullen, the coach at Mississippi State who was the OC at UF for three years, shares 11/2 odds with Stoops. He has the Bulldogs contending for a CFP berth and called the plays for the 2006 and 2008 national-title teams.

I think Mullen can be had, but I don't think he's at the top of Foley's wish list. In fact, according to Yahoo's Pat Forde, there was friction between Mullen and Foley during his days at UF.

If I'm Foley, Hugh Freeze is No. 1 on my wish list. There's a check next to Freeze's name for every variable Foley is looking for. Freeze is a proven winner at a place not known for winning unless a Manning was under center. He's an offensive mind and a dynamic recruiter.

But Freeze is from Oxford, has the Rebels rolling and his decorated 2013 recruiting class will be true juniors and third-year sophomores next season. I just don't think it's Freeze's style to bolt Ole Miss for more money and regardless, I'm told the big boosters at Ole Miss are already poised to make him one of the country's highest-paid coaches. Freeze has 9/1 odds at Bovada.

I understand the website placing Spurrier on the list at 8/1 odds. After all, Bovada is trying to make money off this proposition bet. But The HBC isn't walking through those doors. Spurrier knows the UF fan base better than anyone on this planet, and he's not looking to jump back into a pressure cooker at his age (69).

Mike Shanahan and Arizona's Rich Rodriguez share 7/1 odds. Foley made a run at Shanahan, who was the OC at UF in the early 1980s and remains friendly with the long-time AD. Shanahan is unemployed, but he's 62 and hasn't coached in college for more than 30 years. As for Rodriguez, I just don't think he's the right fit in the Sunshine State.

TCU's Gary Patterson and Auburn's Gus Malzahn complete the list with 12/1 odds. Unless Jay Jacobs and Malzahn are suddenly having issues, I have no clue why he would even be on the board. Patterson? I just can't see him being on Foley's radar.

If there's a sleeper, it's Chip Kelly. However, there's only one way this happens and it rests on Philadelphia losing three of its next four games.

The Eagles are currently in a first-place tie with the Cowboys. If they were to fall behind Dallas in the NFC East, they would be competing with Seattle, San Francisco and either Detroit or Green Bay for the two wild-card slots.

Philadelphia plays Dallas twice in the next four weeks, and it hosts Seattle on Dec. 7. My theory is that Foley is going to be very deliberate in this process. If the Eagles lose to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, perhaps he puts out a feeler to Kelly's agent?

If Philadelphia loses to Seattle the next week and Kelly's agent indicates potential interest, perhaps Kelly becomes a possibility. But Foley isn't going to base this search on possibilities. In other words, if the Eagles and Cowboys are still tied for the division lead after their game goes final on Dec. 14, Kelly is no longer a viable option even if he's interested.

There's a 2015 recruiting class that's in play here, and it needs to be a good one. Knowing Foley, there's no way a new coach isn't in place before Christmas and the Eagles don't play their last regular-season game until Dec. 28. If they make the playoffs, the season is extended at least another week.

There's also Kelly's troubles with the NCAA that basically forced him to bolt Oregon for the City of Brotherly Love. Foley's not bullish on issues with the NCAA, although we should note that Kelly's 18-month show-cause issues just ran out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: Motivated Baylor big home chalk vs. Oklahoma State
By COLIN KELLY

Oklahoma State at Baylor (-26.5)

After a stretch in which every weekend brought with it the next game of the year, Week 13 of the college football season doesn’t have a single game that screams out, “Marquee matchup.” But the games always matter to the bettors, no matter how big or small, and there are still some contests that could help shape the first-ever four-team playoff.

Baylor is in one of those contests, hosting an Oklahoma State squad that would love to play spoiler. The Bears (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) are coming off their bye week following a pair of blowout victories – 60-14 as a 34.5-point home favorite over Kansas, and a 48-14 upset of Oklahoma as a 5.5-point underdog.

The Cowboys (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) had much higher aspirations this year, but they drove their season into the ditch with four consecutive blowout losses – 42-9 at Texas Christian, 34-10 against West Virginia, 48-14 at Kansas State and 28-7 to visiting Texas on Saturday.

“The Cowboys are in a freefall and don’t appear focused to finish the season,” said John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu. “Baylor has to be feeling good coming off a bye and a trouncing of Oklahoma. There is also the added motivation to move up in the college football playoff ranking. They’ll be out for blood here, and the bettors will lay the hefty chalk."

“We’re also expecting a ton of teaser liability on the Bears so we had to inflate this line.”

Boston College Eagles at Florida State Seminoles (-20)

You’d think Florida State’s luck would run out at some point, but the Seminoles (10-0 SU, 3-7 SU) have now won 26 in a row SU. The defending national champs trailed 16-0 at Miami early in the second quarter Saturday, but pulled out a 30-26 win and cover as a 1.5-point fave.

Boston College (6-4 SU and ATS) enters off its bye week, after a 38-19 home loss to Louisville as a 3-point pup.

“The Seminoles keep playing with fire, and eventually they’ll get burned, but probably not this week,” Lester said. “It’s a sandwich spot for Florida State, with Florida on deck, but I actually think the Seminoles show up here. Boston College coach Steve Addazio admits his squad is a work in progress, and it’ll do well to stay within three scores.”

Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-29.5)

Mississippi State was finally dealt its first loss of the season, leaving no teams unblemished in the Southeastern Conference. The Bulldogs (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS), perhaps surprisingly 10-point underdogs at Alabama on Saturday, rallied from a 19-3 deficit but fell short 25-20.

Still, the Bulldogs remain in the thick of the four-team playoff chase, so Vanderbilt could be the perfect bounce-back opponent. The Commodores (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) come in rested, with a week off after a 34-10 home loss to Florida catching 14.5 points.

While many will view this game as a letdown for Mississippi State, I think they’ll avoid the hangover. Dan Mullen is a great coach who will have his kids ready, knowing that there’s still an opportunity to get into the playoff,” Lester said. “Vandy will be well prepared off the bye and can probably keep this contest inside the number.”

Southern California Trojans at UCLA Bruins (-3)

The battle for Los Angeles bragging rights will feature two fresh teams, with USC having played last Thursday and UCLA coming off its bye week. The Bruins (8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS) have won four in a row SU (2-2 ATS), including a 44-30 victory at Washington laying 6 points. The Trojans (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) fended off California 38-30, falling short as a hefty 14-point fave.

“You have to love the Victory Bell rivalry, and the pranks are often the best part,” Lester said. “But this one should be good because we have two very evenly matched teams. UCLA controls its own destiny to play in the Pac-12 championship, while USC can get there if certain scenarios play out. There’s no shortage of motivation on either side, obviously, and we see this as a classic tossup.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Oklahoma State at Baylor November 22, 07:30 EST

The Oklahoma State would love to play spoiler but 'Pokes' are in a freefall with blowout losses to TCU (42-9), West Virginia (34-10), K-State (48-14) and most recently Texas (28-7). On the other side, Baylor Bears off a pair of blowout victories vs Kansas (60-14), Oklahoma (48-14) prior to their bye won't let this one slip away especially in Waco where Bears have won 14 straight home games including the first four at the brand new McLane Stadium. Consider laying the lumber knowing Bears are 4-0-1 ATS following a bye week, 23-4 ATS in their last 27 home games.


Boston College Eagles at Florida State Seminoles November 22, 03:30 EST

Seminoles once again escaped disaster. Down 23-10 at the half at Miami, the Noles' outscored Canes 20-3 in the second half leaving Sun Life Stadium with a 30-26 victory as 1.5 point favorite extending the SU streak to 26 games. Seminoles not good bets this season posting a cash draining 3-7 mark against the betting line will be playing with fire this weekend. Noles have been pegged 19.5 to 20.0 point favorite hosting Boston College (6-4 SU/ATS). Noles 1-7 ATS this season laying double digits, 1-5 ATS L6 laying 18 or more points could get burned. Eagles despite their woes have cashed 5-of-7 as DD underdogs and own a smart 3-1 ATS record last four in Noles back-yard.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Tuesday's games

Buffalo won four of last five games with Akron, but teams haven't met since 2011; Zips lost last three visits here by 41-4-16 points, but have zero desire to back team that already fired its coach this year (Buffalo). Bulls lost last four games, allowing 32.5 ppg; they're 1-6 SU vs I-A foes, 1-4 vs spread as an underdog. Akron is 0-3-1 as a favorite, 1-3 SU away from home, with only win as 20-point dog at Pitt. Zips lost last three in row overall, scoring 17 ppg.

Northern Illinois won its last four games with Toledo, scoring 48.5 ppg; Rockets lost last three visits here, by 7-35-31 points. Huskies won last three games, scoring 38 ppg; they're 0-3 as MAC home fave, winning by 3-10 points with loss to Central Michigan. Toledo won five of its last six games, scoring 34 ppg; they're 0-3 as an underdog this season, losing by 25-24-7 points. NIU has 765 rushing yards in last two games; they were held in 123-110 in its losses. MAC home favorites are 6-13 vs spread.


Wednesday's games

Ball State had Iowa beat on Sept 6, but allowed two TDs in last 4:00 and lost 17-13, a bitter loss; they lost six of last eight games, but scored 32+ points in three of last four games. Cardinals are 3-1 as road dogs, with an upset win at Central Michigan, losses by 4-11-9 points. UMass is 2-7 but covered seven of last eight games- they scored 35+ points in each of last five games, covered only chance when favored. These teams have never met as MAC foes. MAC home favorites are 6-14 vs spread.

Kent State won three of last four games with Bowling Green; underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in last ten series games. Kent won 31-24/30-6 in their last two visits here; Falcons threw for 355+ yards in last three games in series. Falcons won four of last five games but are 0-4 vs spread as fave this year, 0-2 at home- they allowed 42+ points in four of their first five games, but just 16.3 ppg in last three. Golden Flashes are 1-8, 1-3 when a road underdog, losing their MAC road games 17-14/10-3.


Thursday's games

Cincinnati won its last three games, scoring 37.7 ppg and running ball for 240+ yards; over last 11 years, Bearcats are 9-4 as home underdog. East Carolina is 2-2 on road, losing last game as 10-point favorite at Temple; they lost five fumbles in game, losing despite outgaining Owls 432-135; Pirates are 0-4 vs spread in last four games, 1-6 in last seven games as road favorites. ECU is averaging 22.3 ppg on road, 47.3 at home. AAC home underdogs are 4-6 against the spread this season.

Southern Mississippi lost its last three games, allowing 43 ppg; they got off to 14-0 lead over unbeaten Marshall last week but lost 63-17. Eagles are 3-2 as road underdogs this year, after being 3-10 last two years. San Antonio lost seven of last eight games, with lone win 16-13; they're 0-4 vs spread when favored this year, and lost last three games, by 7-34-10 points, scoring total of seven points last two games while outgained by 444 yards. C-USA home favorites are 9-15 vs spread.

USC won its last ten games with Cal, covering eight of last nine; Trojans won last five series games by average score of 39-13. Golden Bears lost last six visits to USC, last two by 27-9/48-14 scores. USC covered three of four as home favorite this year, winning in Coliseum by 39-25-28, but losing to ASU at home. Cal is 4-0 as road underdog this year, going 3-1 SU, with only loss 49-45 at Arizona when they blew 18-point lead late in game. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.


Friday's game

Home side won five of last six Tulsa-Central Florida games; Tulsa beat UCF twice in 2012, 33-27/23-21, but Golden Hurricane is 2-7 this year, ending its 7-game skid with win last week over woeful SMU. UCF won four of last five I-A games, with only one of those wins by more than 7 points. Knights are 2-3 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home. Tulsa is 2-1 as road underdog this year, but only one of its four road losses was by less than 20 points. AAC home favorites are 6-12 against spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

MASSACHUSETTS (3 - 7) at AKRON (4 - 6) - 11/18/2014, 7:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 1-1 straight up against MASSACHUSETTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


N ILLINOIS (8 - 2) at OHIO U (5 - 5) - 11/18/2014, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OHIO U is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Trends

MASSACHUSETTS (3 - 7) at AKRON (4 - 6) - 11/18/2014, 7:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 1-1 straight up against MASSACHUSETTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


N ILLINOIS (8 - 2) at OHIO U (5 - 5) - 11/18/2014, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OHIO U is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Tuesday's free selection: Indiana State Sycamores - 1 1/2

 

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Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY:Take NEW ORLEANS +2 over Sacramento

 

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Totals4U

Tuesday's Free Selection: Northeastern Huskies + 11

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Computer Sports

Free Selection Tuesday NBA: New Orleans +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play: Sacramento -3 NBA

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner: Atlanta -9' NBA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Vegas

Free Selection Tuesday Hoops: Atlanta -9.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Tuesday: Take CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7 over Youngstown St

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Tuesday: UT-Arlington Mavericks - 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Anthony Sports

Tuesday's Free Selection: Texas Tech Red Raiders + 8