Tuesday 11/10/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 2:13pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 VALENTINE'S REWARD (ML=8/1)
#1A RAPIDEZ (ML=12/1)


VALENTINE'S REWARD - Hasn't run at today's trip recently but does have a speed rating earned last time she tried this distance good enough to win. Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a solid race on October 25th. Trainer, Linder, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. RAPIDEZ - Ran last time out against a high class rated field at Parx Racing. The move down in the class scale should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 FOLLY FASHION (ML=2/1), #9 JULIE'S INDY (ML=3/1), #4 WINK FOR ME (ML=5/1),

FOLLY FASHION - The chalk horse is suspect here with the lack of workouts. JULIE'S INDY - Difficult to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. WINK FOR ME - In any affair of 7 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in sprint affairs of late. Finished seventh in her most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 VALENTINE'S REWARD is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Tuesday 11/10 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 225 - 1071 / $1,548.10 BEST BETS: 28 - 89 / $121.70

Best Bet: HOT START (2nd)

Spot Play: SHANGHAI JACK (4th)


Race 1

(1) DECISIVE DESTINY gets serious post relief; has every right to put his best foot forward. (2) QUINCY also gets a better post and moves down in class; threat. (4) LIGHTNING STRIKE just got up for win honors last out; sharp contender.

Race 2

(1) HOT START put in a sharp effort at Freehold last time around. Sophomore filly should find this group to her liking; the pick. (6) CELEBRITY PEGASUS got the job done last out at Saratoga; main danger. (4) PARTY ON THE RIVER Even finish against better last time out; could have a say in the outcome.

Race 3

(4) KEYSTONE BOCA is back at the Hilltop where she went down the road two starts back. Brennan gets the call and this miss should boss these at her best. (1) CASTLE PINES Plainridge invader was sharp in victory last out; retains the fence so watch out. (7) MOVEMENT gets class relief and that should help her cause; beware.

Race 4

(4) SHANGHAI JACK Trotter flashed good speed in his last start; poised to get back into the winner's circle today. (1) MEADOWVIEW ARTY gets the best of the draw and did put in a mild bid in his most recent trip; big threat. (2) FOUR STARZ CREDIT also get post relief; not out of this.

Race 5

(1) STELLAS PHELLA Pacing colt has showed promise in his last three starts; could pull off the mild upset from the fence. (8) IWILLMAKEYOUSAYWOW Speedy pacer draws bad but will try take these down the road; main danger. (2) UNIX HANOVER Easy victory in his latest; must be considered in all of the exotics.

Race 6

(4) BAND WINSOME Upstate shipper was facing better last out; seems to be heading in the right direction and could top these with a fine-timed drive from Buter. (2) NOBLE LEGEND comes by way of Pocono with a game second at big odds last time out; contender. (6) BUNDLE ME UP has tactical speed; is 0 for 19 this year but fits with these; watch out.

Race 7

(5) MADHATTER BLUECHIP Easy victory in his last try; has pulled off two straight wins; moves up the ladder but is very capable of three in a row. (2) SETANTA rallied strongly to nail down the placing last out; main player in here. (1) FLACCO just held on for win honors in his Pocono finale; can't be counted out of this.

Race 8

(1) SOUTHWIND TORQUE makes his initial trip to Yonkers; gets the best of the draw with speed and Bartlett; poised to boss these at his best. (2) ARTSMAH has hit the board in his last six tries; dangerous. (4) ROCKIN JIMMY Sophomore pacer can be right square in the mix; don't overlook.

Race 9

(4) MASSIVE LIGHTNING came outside to mow them down for the score last out. Trotter is very capable of making it two straight with Bartlett at the helm. (1) NORTHERN OBSESSION Tough break at the half last out; should fare much better from the rail slot; threat. (7) FROU FROU has good speed and Brennan keeps the faith with this trotter; not out of this.

Race 10

(1) MCKENRY showed signs of life in his last two starts. Gelding fits well with these and could make tonight a winning one. (2) TAIL GUNNER HALL was sent down the road last out for all the glory; main danger. (5) HARDTS OR BETTOR Another one last out that got the job done pole to finish; beware.

Race 11

(1) PIERCEWAVE HANOVER led every step of the way but was caught in deep stretch last time around; all systems go for this gelding to boss these wire to wire. (2) COIN COLLECTOR Broke early last out, however he is clearly better than her last flop; major player. (5) COUNSELLOR AS got up for third money at big odds last time around; could have a say with these.

Race 12

(5) RANGERS SURESHOT was nailed for win honors in his last start. Gelding has been right there since his move to Yonkers; forward move is clearly not out of the question. (1) A BETTOR HAT was sent down the road last out for all the glory; main danger. (2) ROCK SONG gets post relief so beware.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Finger Lakes (3rd) Flat Leaver, 6-1
(6th) King Dix C, 7-2


Hawthorne (1st) Lethal, 5-1
(6th) Pilatus, 9-2


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Sefapiano Reward, 8-1
(8th) Tamazula, Rose, 8-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Turn to Travis, 7-2
(9th) Techno Girl, 6-1


Turf Paradise (3rd) Adriatic Moon, 3-1
(7th) Co Ferment, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Toledo
Ohio
Wizards

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMBLERS DATA

Toledo -4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Maple Leafs vs Stars

5* NHL Free Pick Dallas Stars -1.5

The Toronto Maple Leafs have lost three straight and they're just 2-8-4 for the season. I think they'll lose big when visiting the surging Dallas Stars Tuesday night. Dallas kicked off the month with a 4-1 loss at Toronto, but it has won three straight since covering the puckline in each game. I expect the Stars to come in mighty pumped up looking for revenge here. Tyler Seguin has 10 goals and 19 points in 21 career games against the Maple Leafs and he's coming into this game riding an eight-game point streak on top of being named the NHL's Second Star of the Week on Monday.

Note that:
- Maple Leafs are 9-46 in their last 55 road games.
- Stars are 6-1 in their last 7 home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Bonus Play Dallas Mavericks

I'm recommending a play on the Dallas Mavericks to win for the second time over the Pelicans in as many games. These teams met on Friday, a 107-98 win by the Mavs in Dallas, and neither team has played since. The Pelicans are 0-6 SU & ATS on the season, an unexpected start for a team with an over/under win total of 46 1/2 games (Westgate) before the season tipped-off. But it's not simply due to poor play or a lack of focus. It's been mostly due to numerous injuries up and down the lineup. Things have gotten so bad for the Pelicans that they had to apply for a hardship exemption to sign Jimmer Fredette. Anthony Davis is probable on Tuesday (ankle), but he just doesn't have enough weapons around him, especially with Tyreke Evans sidelined. The hamstrung Pelicans have been beaten-up on the defensive end, ranked second to last in the league in FG percentage allowed, and dead last in 3-point defense and ppg allowed. In fact, they're also second to last in rebounds per contest. New Orleans is obviously a shell of what they're expected to be when healthy and I'm going against them again tonight. I'm recommending a play on the Mavericks plus the short points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Tuesday

HORNETS at TIMBERWOLVES 8:05 PM

Take: HORNETS -2.5

The Timberwolves return home from two terrific road wins. Minnesota pitched an overtime shutout on Saturday in upsetting the Bulls. Then last night, they got the best of the Hawks in Atlanta.

Yet despite those two impressive victories, the Wolves are home underdogs tonight as Charlotte comes to town. I can see why. First off, young teams are more prone to going flat in situations like this. It’s a quick turnaround off a great road win against a superior team. But momentum has a way of coming and going in a hurry with teams like this, so I can see Minnesota bouncing a bit this evening.

In the for what it’s worth category, we have the ugly Wolves record when playing the second of back to back nights. They’re only 8-19 ATS in this situation. I always advise caution when zeroing in on any relatively small sample statistic. But I’ll have to admit it means a little more than usual for me given my view that this is a potential dead spot for the home team.

The Hornets are a team that interests me. They flopped last season after an encouraging 2013-14 campaign. But there’s no denying this was a team with some serious chemistry issues. The player at the center of the reported unrest is now on the left coast and the current roster is a better mix.

I kind of like what Steve Clifford is doing with the offense on this team. They’re launching lots of threes, and they’re making a good number of them as well. If you look at the Hornets roster, particularly with no Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to play the role of defensive stopper, it looks to me like Clifford is game planning to the strength of his team. Jeremy Lin, in particular, seems to be thriving with his new team.

The number here seems like a bit of an indicator to me. The Wolves are at home, they’re on a little bit of a roll and it’s not like Charlotte is an elite visitor. Yet the Hornets have been installed as the favorite. I take that as a buy signal to some extent and given the scheduling dynamics, I’ll cast my lot with Charlotte tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Tuesday, November 10 is:

Boston Celtics +1 over Milwaukee Bucks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE WIZ

Over 200 Milwaukee and Boston

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SLEEPYJ

Charlotte / Minnesota Over 199

This will be the T-Wolves first back-to-back game this year...They are coming off two straight road wins and now come back home..How will the Minnesota defense hold up after a road trip playing on back to back nights?...I think the defense will struggle here...So i expect the Hornets to score points here..Charlotte is avg about 102ppg on offense...Not to bad for that club...Minnesota is undefeated on the road this year..4-0...They are yet to crack the win column at home..So in order for the T-Wolves to win here at home, they will need to keep up with the Hornets on offense...Right now Andrew Wiggins has a hot hand..He has gone for 30+ in the last two road games..One would think coming back home that hot hand continues for at least 1 more game...looking further down the schedule for the T-Wolves at home..Next game up..They get the Champs in GS, next home game is the Grizzlies...They very well might lose both and have to fight off the Pistons on Nov 20th to secure the first home win...I think the T-Wolves have the legs to run and gun here tonight though with Rubio and Wiggins...T-Wolves have some decent size and i think they control the offensive glass here..i look for plenty of second chance pts here for the Wolves...Charlotte has been picking it up though as of late...They only have two wins on the year, but they have had a tough schedule..They are still scoring pts though...They had to play the Spurs, Bulls, Mavs, ATL (twice) and the heat...Possible playoff teams in all those games..They put up 130 the other night against the Bulls a team who is similar to the T-Wolves and how they push the pace and lack defense...Hornets have plenty of scorers on this team and they create matchup problems as well...Wiggins is a great defender for the Wolves, but he will have his hands full with the Hornets play makers...Kemba Walker is healthy and he is running the court with Nick Batum..jefferson draw a young gun down low in Karl Anthony Towns..So i look for jefferson to get his looks and touches down low with some success...Hornets bench is deep with Lin, Lamb, Hairston..All those guys can run the floor and score as well...Hornets Marvin Williams has a very ugly game and looks like a rusty go cart at times, but the guy gets his points each and every game....I like the young talanet and the legs on the floor..Both teams can push the rock and both teams can falter on defense..T-Wolves will be a bit sluggish and that will hurt them on defense..We might just see a few ugly shots late as the legs for the starters wear down..We can rely on the bench for the T-Wolves to keep pace here with the guys i mentioned..This one gets over the total...This one won;t move much..Maybe a 198 will surface, but i feel pretty good here at 199 over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the more interesting college football games this week.........

-- Memphis @ Houston (-6)-- Tigers lost for first time last week.

-- Washington State @ UCLA (-9.5)-- Coogs are 4-0 as road underdogs.

-- Alabama (-8) @ Miss State-- When they met LY, Bulldogs were #1 in country.

-- Arkansas @ LSU (-8)-- Tigers need to bounce back after Alabama loss.

-- Georgia @ Auburn (-1.5)-- Line opened at Georgia, -2.

-- Oklahoma @ Baylor (-3)-- Stiffer test for Baylor freshman QB Stitham.