ALDS Game 3 - O's at Royals
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (99-68) at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (95-73)
Line & Total: Baltimore -110, Kansas City +100, Total: 7.5
The Royals look to take a demanding 3-0 series lead in the ALCS when they host the Orioles on Monday night.
Baltimore used its big bats to lead the majors in home runs (211) and dominated both the AL East, winning by 12 games over its closest contender, and the ALDS by sweeping the Tigers. Over the first two games of this series, the offense has pounded out 10 runs on 23 hits, but has hit just one home run. The Orioles have also not found any reliable pitching, giving up 14 runs over two losses at Camden Yards.
On Saturday, they took a tie game into the ninth inning before allowing two runs in the top half of the inning in a 6-4 loss as they tallied nine hits; including having their 2-3-4 hitters go 6-for-13 with 3 RBI and three runs. OF Adam Jones has the lone homer for the O's in the series, and brings a four-game hitting streak into this one.
Kansas City has had the dream postseason, going a perfect 6-0 while coming away victorious in four extra-inning games. They have already totaled 25 hits over their first two wins with four of them leaving the ballpark. In Saturday’s win, the Royals got a hit from eight of their nine starters while going 4-for-12 with runners in scoring position. One of the main keys to this historic playoff run has been ninth-place hitter 3B Mike Moustakas, who had a home run in Saturday’s win while going 7-for-22 with 4 HR, 5 RBI and six runs over the six postseason games thus far.
Attempting to get his team back in the win column will be starter LHP Wei-Yin Chen (0-0, 12.27 ERA in postseason) as he goes against Kansas City’s RHP Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.13 ERA in regular season), who pitched five seasons with Baltimore. The Orioles have been outstanding on the road this year, going 47-35 (.573, 3rd in majors), while the Royals are a mediocre 44-39 (.530, 16th in MLB) at home.
Kansas City upped its record against Baltimore over the past three seasons to 14-11 (.560) after Saturday’s victory while the teams have split 10 games (5-5) at Kauffman Stadium in that time. Bettors should take notice that the Orioles are 73-38 (.658) in night games this year while the Royals are 26-8 (.765) after having won six or seven of their previous eight contests in 2014.
As far as injuries go, Baltimore left 1B Chris Davis (suspended until Game 5) off of the ALCS roster, while 3B Manny Machado (knee) is out for the rest of the year, On the other side of the diamond, Kansas City has no significant omissions from their offense.
Wei-Yin Chen has been a solid yet unspectacular starter since joining the majors in 2012 and did well in 2014 by posting a career-best 3.54 ERA. He also showed a tremendous amount of control (1.7 BB/9) while striking out 6.6 batters per nine innings. Chen finished off the regular season with a great September (2-2, 2.05 ERA) but could not continue that success in his first postseason start as he earned a no-decision after giving up five runs on seven hits (2 HR) over 3.2 innings against Detroit in the ALDS. Overall in his career against the Royals, Chen is 1-1 (3-3 team record) with a 4.17 ERA (1.42 WHIP) while earning a win (5.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 Ks) in his last outing earlier this year. Both DH Billy Butler (8-for-18, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 4 RBI) and 1B Eric Hosmer (7-for-17, 1 double, 2 HR, 5 RBI) have torched Chen over their careers, while C Salvador Perez is a poor 2-for-13 (.154) in the matchup.
The bullpen for Baltimore was sharp during the regular season, going 28-21 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, but so far in this series, O's relievers have a subpar combined pitching line of: 10.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 7 BB's and 11 K's, which equates to a 4.35 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Zach Britton (4.91 ERA, 2 saves in postseason), who forced batters into groundballs 75.3% of the time in the regular season, has allowed five base-runners in only 1.1 innings in the ALCS.
Jeremy Guthrie has had a long career (275 games, 248 starts) despite a mediocre 4.23 lifetime ERA and 5.4 K/9. This year, he upped his strikeout rate slightly (5.5 K/9) while walking just 2.2 batters per nine innings and allowing his lowest HR rate (1.02 HR/9) since becoming a full-time starter. He finished off the regular season on a positive note, with his team going 9-3 over his final 12 starts of the year while he had a 2.40 ERA in five September outings. Although he has pitched in nearly 300 games, Guthrie has yet to make a postseason start and is 2-1 (2-2 team record) with a 2.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP against his former team over his career.
The most productive bat in the lineup over his time against the veteran has been OF Nelson Cruz who is 6-for-24 (.250) with a double and 6 RBI while SS J.J. Hardy (3-for-14, 2 K's), OF Adam Jones (1-for-12, 2 K's) and OF Delmon Young (4-for-27) have all been poor in the matchup. Including the postseason, Kansas City relievers have combined to go 33-18 (.647) with a 3.24 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, while being 57-for-69 (83%) in save opportunities.
However, these numbers are far worse at home, where the bullpen carries a 4.08 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. After mowing down 13 batters per nine frames in the regular season, closer Greg Holland (1.50 ERA, 4 saves) has allowed just three hits while striking out nine in his six postseason innings.
