jeff benton tuesday
Tuesday's college hoops action ...
15 Dime college basketball selection on TEXAS TECH plus the points over Texas. The Red Raiders are a seven-point home undeadog in this contest both here in Vegas and offshore, though I do see when spot where the number is up to 7½. Remember to always shop around and get the best of the number (and in this case, it might be wise to wait and see where this line serttles before making your move).
10 Dime college basketball selection on BAYLOR minus the points over Oklahoma. The Bears are a 16-point favorite across the board, though I do anticdpate this number going up (I already see one place with Baylor at -17).
TEXAS TECH
Well aware of Texas Tech’s struggles against the spread this year – the Red Raiders (who are just 8-8 on the season) have cashed just twice in 11 lined contests (including Saturday’s 71-59 home loss to Baylor as a four-point home underdog in the Big 12 opener). Still, I don’t trust Texas, which I believe is a fraud (as is the entire Big 12, with the exceation of Baylor).
The Longhorns proved my point to a degree Saturday when they couldn’t put away UConn, losing 82-81 in overtime despite being an 8½-point home chalk. Texas does have three “nice” wins on the season (it beat Illinois in overtime at a neutral site in mid-November and knocked off North Carolina and Michigan State in back-to-back December contests), but I’m not convinced the Tar Heels (who only lost to Texas by two on a neutral court) or Spartans are anything more than mediocre.
In addition to the win at Michigan State, Texas has played just one other true road game this season, and that was at USC on Dec. 5, and the Trojans (speaking of mediocre!) steramrolled the Longhorns 73-56 as a five-point underdog. Including those two road results, Texas is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 on the highway, and it has been almost as bad as a road chalk (8-20-1 ATS last 29). Additionally, the Longhorns are just 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 conference games.
And while Texas has taken the last four meetings in this rivalry, the Red Raiders have gotten the cash in the last three and four of the last five (all as an underdog), including a 71-67 loss as a 6½-point home pup last February.
Texas Tech’s should get a huge boost from its home crowd tonight, and when you consider how poorly Texas has bounced back from losses recent (0-4 ATS last four when coming off a defeat) and horrible the Longhorns are at the free-throw line (64.8 percent), I’ll gladly grab the generous points with the home pup.
BAYLOR
Not at all afraid to lay the big number here with Baylor because there’s a major talent gap between the Bears and Sooners. Baylor is 11-3 on the season (9-0 at home) and outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game (74.6-58.4). Oklahoma is 8-7 (0-6 away from Norman), averaging just 67.9 ppg and allowing 65.5 ppg. That includes an ugly 69-51 home loss to Texas A&M as a seven-point home underdog in Saturday’s Big 12 opener.
That biggest discrepancy between these squads is on the defensive end of the court. Baylor is giving up seven fewer ppg than Oklahoma and holding opponents to 39 percent shooting (the Sooners allow 43.4 percent). And when you break down the home-road splits, you see Baylor is beating visitors by an average of 22 ppg and outshooting them 50.1 percent to 37.3 percent, while the Sooners are giving up 83.5 ppg (53.3 percent shooting) on the highway.
With one exception (a 68-64 loss at Chaminade, which might be its most embarrassing defeat of the season), Oklahoma has not been comdetitive in its losses. The Sooners fell to Kentucky by 12, Virginia by 18, Arkansas by 10, Arizona by 23 and Cincinnati by 10. And while we’re on the topic of non-competitive losses, here’s what happened in OU’s one trip to Baylor last season: 91-60 loss!
The Sooners not only fell well short of covering the spread in that game, but they’ve been a big money-burner of late (ATS slumps of 8-21 overall, 18-40-3 on the road, 15-35-1 as an underdog, 16-39-1 as a road underdog, 2-8 in Big 12 play). Meanwhile, with Saturday’s double-digit win at Texas Tech, the Bears have now cashed in five of their last six conference games. All of these trends continue tonight as Baylor rolls by at least 25 points.
Tuesday's college hoops action ...
15 Dime college basketball selection on TEXAS TECH plus the points over Texas. The Red Raiders are a seven-point home undeadog in this contest both here in Vegas and offshore, though I do see when spot where the number is up to 7½. Remember to always shop around and get the best of the number (and in this case, it might be wise to wait and see where this line serttles before making your move).
10 Dime college basketball selection on BAYLOR minus the points over Oklahoma. The Bears are a 16-point favorite across the board, though I do anticdpate this number going up (I already see one place with Baylor at -17).
TEXAS TECH
Well aware of Texas Tech’s struggles against the spread this year – the Red Raiders (who are just 8-8 on the season) have cashed just twice in 11 lined contests (including Saturday’s 71-59 home loss to Baylor as a four-point home underdog in the Big 12 opener). Still, I don’t trust Texas, which I believe is a fraud (as is the entire Big 12, with the exceation of Baylor).
The Longhorns proved my point to a degree Saturday when they couldn’t put away UConn, losing 82-81 in overtime despite being an 8½-point home chalk. Texas does have three “nice” wins on the season (it beat Illinois in overtime at a neutral site in mid-November and knocked off North Carolina and Michigan State in back-to-back December contests), but I’m not convinced the Tar Heels (who only lost to Texas by two on a neutral court) or Spartans are anything more than mediocre.
In addition to the win at Michigan State, Texas has played just one other true road game this season, and that was at USC on Dec. 5, and the Trojans (speaking of mediocre!) steramrolled the Longhorns 73-56 as a five-point underdog. Including those two road results, Texas is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 on the highway, and it has been almost as bad as a road chalk (8-20-1 ATS last 29). Additionally, the Longhorns are just 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 conference games.
And while Texas has taken the last four meetings in this rivalry, the Red Raiders have gotten the cash in the last three and four of the last five (all as an underdog), including a 71-67 loss as a 6½-point home pup last February.
Texas Tech’s should get a huge boost from its home crowd tonight, and when you consider how poorly Texas has bounced back from losses recent (0-4 ATS last four when coming off a defeat) and horrible the Longhorns are at the free-throw line (64.8 percent), I’ll gladly grab the generous points with the home pup.
BAYLOR
Not at all afraid to lay the big number here with Baylor because there’s a major talent gap between the Bears and Sooners. Baylor is 11-3 on the season (9-0 at home) and outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game (74.6-58.4). Oklahoma is 8-7 (0-6 away from Norman), averaging just 67.9 ppg and allowing 65.5 ppg. That includes an ugly 69-51 home loss to Texas A&M as a seven-point home underdog in Saturday’s Big 12 opener.
That biggest discrepancy between these squads is on the defensive end of the court. Baylor is giving up seven fewer ppg than Oklahoma and holding opponents to 39 percent shooting (the Sooners allow 43.4 percent). And when you break down the home-road splits, you see Baylor is beating visitors by an average of 22 ppg and outshooting them 50.1 percent to 37.3 percent, while the Sooners are giving up 83.5 ppg (53.3 percent shooting) on the highway.
With one exception (a 68-64 loss at Chaminade, which might be its most embarrassing defeat of the season), Oklahoma has not been comdetitive in its losses. The Sooners fell to Kentucky by 12, Virginia by 18, Arkansas by 10, Arizona by 23 and Cincinnati by 10. And while we’re on the topic of non-competitive losses, here’s what happened in OU’s one trip to Baylor last season: 91-60 loss!
The Sooners not only fell well short of covering the spread in that game, but they’ve been a big money-burner of late (ATS slumps of 8-21 overall, 18-40-3 on the road, 15-35-1 as an underdog, 16-39-1 as a road underdog, 2-8 in Big 12 play). Meanwhile, with Saturday’s double-digit win at Texas Tech, the Bears have now cashed in five of their last six conference games. All of these trends continue tonight as Baylor rolls by at least 25 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
PORTLAND –4 over New York
The Trail Blazers are playing with as much determination and grit as any team in the league. They just took the Heat to OT and that was upon returning home from a brief three-game trip. At home the Blazers have been near unbeatable with a 12-4 record with only losses coming against Utah, New Orleans, Oklahoma City and Miami, the latter two in OT. Conceivably, the Blazers could be 14-2 at home. Danilo Gallinari is a huge loss for the Knicks. He’s one of the best pure shooters in the game and when he gets hot from beyond the arc the Knicks go on big runs in a hurry. New York is coming off a blowout loss to the Lakers in a game they wanted to compete badly in but looked completely out of place. That could definitely carry over into this game but the real kicker here in the Blazers strong home record, their determination and that they’ve been undervalued all season long. Play: Portland (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Phoenix +5/+1.78 over DENVER
We’re going to split this up and play a unit each on the money line and the point spread. This one is all about playing against the Nuggets and this seemingly low line seals the deal. Phoenix has two win over its last nine games, one against the Pistons and one against the Cav’s. They had trouble with the 8-29, as the game was tied with three minutes remaining. The Nuggets are considered to be a top eight team and they’re at home, where they have won 15 of 19 games. Why then is this line so low? The books are looking for Nugget money and they’ll get it, that you can be sure of. It’s hard to ignore the “elephant in the room” and the oddsmakers are betting that all the trade speculations and the inevitable deal that is forthcoming is too much of a distraction for the Nuggets to be focused. A deal could even occur before this one tips off. In any case, the line suggests that the Suns are likely going to be in a great position to win this one and that’s good enough for us. Play: Phoenix +5 (Risking 1.08 units to win 1). Play Phoenix +1.78 (Risking 1 unit).
L.A. LAKERS/Cleveland under 200
The Cav’s have reached 98 or more while allowing 108 or more in three straight and that has caused this number to be grossly inflated. Fact is, Cleveland played Toronto, Golden State and Phoenix over that stretch and that trio plays all offense and no defense. Prior to that the Cav’s had been held to under 100 in 18 of 19 games with most of them being between the 85-90 mark. Now they’ll play a Lakers team that thrives on their defensive play and should be able to make life absolutely miserable for this poor-shooting guest. The last six times these two have met have gone way under this number and that’s when LeBron was a Cav. The Lakers are a 15-point favorite to look for a score like 95-80 or something like that. Man, this numbers seems way too high. Play: Lakers/Cav’s under 200 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
PORTLAND –4 over New York
The Trail Blazers are playing with as much determination and grit as any team in the league. They just took the Heat to OT and that was upon returning home from a brief three-game trip. At home the Blazers have been near unbeatable with a 12-4 record with only losses coming against Utah, New Orleans, Oklahoma City and Miami, the latter two in OT. Conceivably, the Blazers could be 14-2 at home. Danilo Gallinari is a huge loss for the Knicks. He’s one of the best pure shooters in the game and when he gets hot from beyond the arc the Knicks go on big runs in a hurry. New York is coming off a blowout loss to the Lakers in a game they wanted to compete badly in but looked completely out of place. That could definitely carry over into this game but the real kicker here in the Blazers strong home record, their determination and that they’ve been undervalued all season long. Play: Portland (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Phoenix +5/+1.78 over DENVER
We’re going to split this up and play a unit each on the money line and the point spread. This one is all about playing against the Nuggets and this seemingly low line seals the deal. Phoenix has two win over its last nine games, one against the Pistons and one against the Cav’s. They had trouble with the 8-29, as the game was tied with three minutes remaining. The Nuggets are considered to be a top eight team and they’re at home, where they have won 15 of 19 games. Why then is this line so low? The books are looking for Nugget money and they’ll get it, that you can be sure of. It’s hard to ignore the “elephant in the room” and the oddsmakers are betting that all the trade speculations and the inevitable deal that is forthcoming is too much of a distraction for the Nuggets to be focused. A deal could even occur before this one tips off. In any case, the line suggests that the Suns are likely going to be in a great position to win this one and that’s good enough for us. Play: Phoenix +5 (Risking 1.08 units to win 1). Play Phoenix +1.78 (Risking 1 unit).
L.A. LAKERS/Cleveland under 200
The Cav’s have reached 98 or more while allowing 108 or more in three straight and that has caused this number to be grossly inflated. Fact is, Cleveland played Toronto, Golden State and Phoenix over that stretch and that trio plays all offense and no defense. Prior to that the Cav’s had been held to under 100 in 18 of 19 games with most of them being between the 85-90 mark. Now they’ll play a Lakers team that thrives on their defensive play and should be able to make life absolutely miserable for this poor-shooting guest. The last six times these two have met have gone way under this number and that’s when LeBron was a Cav. The Lakers are a 15-point favorite to look for a score like 95-80 or something like that. Man, this numbers seems way too high. Play: Lakers/Cav’s under 200 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +1.40 over N.Y. RANGERS
The Habs are taking back +1.40 in regulation and just +1.18 with OT included. 22 cents is a pretty big discrepancy and therefore we’ll play it in regulation only. What we know for sure is that Montreal always has a chance to win against the Rangers and all the value here is on them. The Canadiens are playing solid hockey with three wins in their last four games including back-to-back victories over Pittsburgh and Boston. The Rangers, too, are playing well but they’ve played a whole lot better on the road all season long while struggling at MSG. The Habs have beaten this rival six of the last nine times they’ve played and no matter how you break it down the Canadiens offer up all the value in this contest. Definite overlay even without Michael Cammalleri. Play: Montreal +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +1.21 over Washington
The Caps are no longer the offensive juggernaut we’re used to seeing, at least not at the moment, but they’re the same prices as they’ve been in the past, therefore creating an overlay. Remarkably, against the Southeast the Caps have gone under the total in nine straight games. What that suggests is that it may take just three goals to beat them and with the Caps 9-8 road record and with Alexander Semin on the rack, we’ll gladly take our chances with this hard-working host. These two played in Washington on Saturday with the Caps winning 3-2 in an evenly matched game. The venue now switches to Florida where the Panthers usually perform well. The Panthers have picked up points in four of their last six home games with two of those being OT losses to Montreal and Boston and the other two being a 6-2 win over Buffalo and a 3-0 win over the Rangers. The Caps play in Tampa Bay tomorrow and while the players won’t say so, that game is more important than this one, especially after the Lightning beat them a week ago in Washington in OT, 1-0. Play: Florida +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.94 over SAN JOSE
The Leafs are really playing well these days with balanced scoring, good defense and now they have a goaltender that has also given them a major boost. James Reimer has been terrific (99% chance he’ll go again tonight) and after beating the Kings last night and winning four of their last five, the Maple Leafs can’t wait to get back on the ice tonight. The Leafs have scored 23 goals over those last four wins and they catch the Sharkies in a serious offensive funk. San Jose has scored just one goal over its last three games and just five goals over its last five games. They’ve also lost four straight overall and four straight at The Tank. The Sharks goaltending is unreliable at best and what we have here is a very warm and confident Leafs team taking back a big tag against a team that is struggling miserably. The Maple Leafs most certainly have a great chance to keep this thing going and offer up nothing but value here. Play Toronto +1.94 (Risking 2 units).
Phoenix +1.09 over COLUMBUS
The Coyotes are in a bit of a difficult spot in that they’re playing their third game in four days and fifth game in seven days but when you’re winning you have a lot more energy. Phoenix is coming off a win in St. Louis last night and has now picked up points in four straight games (3 W’s and 1 OT loss). More than that, however, is the current state of these Jackets. Columbus is in a major, major funk. It appears as though nobody on this roster is happy with the current conditions. The Jackets play with little determination and less heart. The Jackets have won six of their last 22 games and return home tonight after a 0-4 road trip in which they were outscored 20-7. They allowed at least four goals or more in every game of said trip and Mathieu Garon will be back in net tonight because Steve Mason is on the rack. The Blue Jackets power play and penalty kill are among the league's worst and since their hot 14-6 start they have rarely played with a lead. The club has scored the first goal in only six of the past 22 games, dating to Nov. 26. This is a team in turmoil and the fan base is dwindling fast, as the arena is averaging just over 13,000 a game and it’s not going to take much for the fans to get very restless. The Jackets are simply a club to avoid right now when laying juice. Play: Phoenix +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Montreal +1.40 over N.Y. RANGERS
The Habs are taking back +1.40 in regulation and just +1.18 with OT included. 22 cents is a pretty big discrepancy and therefore we’ll play it in regulation only. What we know for sure is that Montreal always has a chance to win against the Rangers and all the value here is on them. The Canadiens are playing solid hockey with three wins in their last four games including back-to-back victories over Pittsburgh and Boston. The Rangers, too, are playing well but they’ve played a whole lot better on the road all season long while struggling at MSG. The Habs have beaten this rival six of the last nine times they’ve played and no matter how you break it down the Canadiens offer up all the value in this contest. Definite overlay even without Michael Cammalleri. Play: Montreal +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +1.21 over Washington
The Caps are no longer the offensive juggernaut we’re used to seeing, at least not at the moment, but they’re the same prices as they’ve been in the past, therefore creating an overlay. Remarkably, against the Southeast the Caps have gone under the total in nine straight games. What that suggests is that it may take just three goals to beat them and with the Caps 9-8 road record and with Alexander Semin on the rack, we’ll gladly take our chances with this hard-working host. These two played in Washington on Saturday with the Caps winning 3-2 in an evenly matched game. The venue now switches to Florida where the Panthers usually perform well. The Panthers have picked up points in four of their last six home games with two of those being OT losses to Montreal and Boston and the other two being a 6-2 win over Buffalo and a 3-0 win over the Rangers. The Caps play in Tampa Bay tomorrow and while the players won’t say so, that game is more important than this one, especially after the Lightning beat them a week ago in Washington in OT, 1-0. Play: Florida +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.94 over SAN JOSE
The Leafs are really playing well these days with balanced scoring, good defense and now they have a goaltender that has also given them a major boost. James Reimer has been terrific (99% chance he’ll go again tonight) and after beating the Kings last night and winning four of their last five, the Maple Leafs can’t wait to get back on the ice tonight. The Leafs have scored 23 goals over those last four wins and they catch the Sharkies in a serious offensive funk. San Jose has scored just one goal over its last three games and just five goals over its last five games. They’ve also lost four straight overall and four straight at The Tank. The Sharks goaltending is unreliable at best and what we have here is a very warm and confident Leafs team taking back a big tag against a team that is struggling miserably. The Maple Leafs most certainly have a great chance to keep this thing going and offer up nothing but value here. Play Toronto +1.94 (Risking 2 units).
Phoenix +1.09 over COLUMBUS
The Coyotes are in a bit of a difficult spot in that they’re playing their third game in four days and fifth game in seven days but when you’re winning you have a lot more energy. Phoenix is coming off a win in St. Louis last night and has now picked up points in four straight games (3 W’s and 1 OT loss). More than that, however, is the current state of these Jackets. Columbus is in a major, major funk. It appears as though nobody on this roster is happy with the current conditions. The Jackets play with little determination and less heart. The Jackets have won six of their last 22 games and return home tonight after a 0-4 road trip in which they were outscored 20-7. They allowed at least four goals or more in every game of said trip and Mathieu Garon will be back in net tonight because Steve Mason is on the rack. The Blue Jackets power play and penalty kill are among the league's worst and since their hot 14-6 start they have rarely played with a lead. The club has scored the first goal in only six of the past 22 games, dating to Nov. 26. This is a team in turmoil and the fan base is dwindling fast, as the arena is averaging just over 13,000 a game and it’s not going to take much for the fans to get very restless. The Jackets are simply a club to avoid right now when laying juice. Play: Phoenix +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
