Brandon Lang
NOTE:
Let's just say Boise coach Chris Petersen is a better coach than Gary Patterson and leave it at that.
I have been riding the dogs the last week and wouldn't you know I back the favorite and then sit back and just like Miami-Florida I watch the favorite implode.
It's just amazing to me how whenever I have a big, big play, I sit back and watch the QB I am backing, in this case Dalton of TCU, do something he hasn't done all year long, which last night was throw INT's.
Was TCU the wrong side to begin with? Yes probably and I am man enough to give credit where credit is due and that is the coaching staff of Boise, which flat out coached circles around TCU.
How can I sit in my leaving room 2,500 miles away and yell out to watch out for the fake punt, and yet TCU isn't prepared for it? If you know Boise, scout Boise, have watched Boise, you knew a trick play was coming somewhere.
And with just over 9 minutes left in the game you just knew something was coming before regulation was over and sure enough just as I said, they did it and as head coach Patterson of TCU would say, "They caught us flat footed."
So again, tip my cap to Chris Petersen of Boise, he got me one more time this year. Nice job Chris. Congrats.
75 DIME - IOWA HAWKEYES
25 DIME - IOWA HAWKEYES 1ST HALF PLAY
25 DIME - IOWA HAWKEYES MONEY LINE PLAY -Back on the dog.
First and foremost, when you have the defensive personnel that Iowa has and with this much time to prepare for the vaunted triple option, have to like my chances catching more than a field goal.
Last year LSU had over a month to gameplan for the Yellow Jackets option attack and held them to 3 points and this year the Georgia Bulldogs had 2 weeks and beat them.
Iowa is well coached, arguably one of the best coached team in America and when it comes to bowl games, well let's just say the proof is in the pudding.
In 2003 they were getting +3 1/2 against Florida and won outright 27-17. In '04 there were getting +6 1/2 and won outright 30-25. In 05 they were a pickem against Florida and lost 31-24. In '06 they were +9 and lost to Texas 26-24 getting the easy cover.
And finally, last year they were -3 1/2 and crushed South Carolina 31-10.
I hear all this stuff about the G'tech team speed, and how they are going to run right by Iowa and yes, I expect the Yellow Jackets to some success offensively but folks, that is not where this game is going to be won or lost for Georgia Tech. It's going to be won or lost by the Georgia Tech defense.
This isn't a very good stop unit and especially in the area of strength for Iowa, running the football.
If you are going to cover more than a field goal in college football you had better be able to stop the run and considering the fact Georgia Tech gave up 339 yards rushing to Georgia and 323 against Clemson to close out the year, I don't have the confidence they can shut down Iowa.
Allow me to put it in it's proper perspective for you:
On the road at Penn State, in front of over 100,000 people, against the 6th best run defense in the country, Iowa ran for 163 yards. Do you think for one second Georgia Tech and their 65th ranked run defense is going to shut down Iowa?
I was talking to one of the starting linebackers for Wake Forest just yesterday at my gym here in Florida, a kid who had a helluva game against Tech, a game Wake should have won and I asked him about Tech.
He ranted about their offense but he laughed about their defense and when I asked him, based on what he saw on film and what he saw in playing them, would Tech be able to stop the Iowa run game, he completely agreed with me, Tech's defense is a liability against the run.
I am talking 7 times this year teams ran for over 175 yards with 4 of them getting over 200 yards.
I don't care at what level you are handicapping a game, college or pro, if you can't stop the run you are going to have problems and as we have seen in the past with Iowa and bowl games, if you have a weakness you had better believe head coach Kirk Ferentz is going to exploit it.
The Hawkeyes are a hard team to blow out, I don't care who you are. They just don't beat themselves, play sound fundamental defense and are very well coached.
We have seen a resurgence with the Big Ten in bowl games this year as an underdog.
Wisconsin won outright as a dog, Ohio State won outright as a dog, Northwestern should have won outright as a dog and if Michigan State hadn't suspended their entire football team I believe they would have beaten Texas Tech outright as well.
The bottom line is I am going down swinging with the underdog who across the board has the better defense with time to prepare and in bowl games folks, that is a recipe for winning success.
Iowa is a top ten defense in the country. They held every BCS bowl opponent they played this year to under 15 points a game and yes, they had 8 come from behind victories to get here which does have me a bit nervous about how good they really are.
However, fact of the matter is they are here, they did figure out a way to win those games and this is a game about X's and O's, matchups across the board of Georgia Tech versus Iowa, strengths and weaknesses.
And when your weakness plays to the strength of your opponent, it's always hard to blow that team out.
As I said, Iowa is a great bowl team, you have their bowl success noted above and I can't discount this coach getting points with time to prepare against anybody. He has proven to be just that good. End of story.
I made the mistake of going against Wisconsin against a faster Miami/florida team and I paid for it dearly. I won't make that same mistake twice in a bowl season.
I am riding Iowa in the first half, Iowa plus the points for the game and I am rolling the dice with Iowa to pull off the upset in another bowl game, just like they did in 03 beating Florida, 04 beating LSU and in 06 they should have beaten Texas.
FREE SELECTION - SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS
