Tuesday 05/19/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Rivers

For Tuesday take the Angels at Safeco.

Felix Hernandez is a total stud and a guy that has the ability and stuff to shut down any team at the drop of a hat. That last statement includes today as the Angels are not exactly a hard hitting bunch but with that said Matt Palmer has been great so far in his young career and the Mariners are not exactly worthy of laying a fairly steep price right now.

Seattle started out great this season and then it seemed as if Ichiro came back and things started going South a bit. The bottom line with the Mariners is that they have regressed mightily from a few seasons back and are just not a good ballclub right now. There are a few pieces for sure including the potential for a solid starting staff led by Hernandez and Erik Bedard but overall the M's are a 70 or so win team.

Mike Scioscia's squad was just swept in Arlington against the red hot Rangers and has certainly had their share of issues so far on the campaign thanks in part to the Vlad Guerrero injury but if you want to give me this price back with a 4-0 Palmer who is a kid that has been nothing less than great than I'm fine with the Halos. Even after losing K-Rod to the Mets Anaheim is still the more complete team when push comes to shove with Seattle.

I can't say that Palmer is not due to get hit a bit and the road is never easy but this thing is just a no-brainer at this quality takeback.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Gambling Hotline

Denver at LA LAKERS

Milwaukee comes through last night for free to make it 4 straight comp play winners. 32-19-3 overall comp play run.

Western Conference Finals get underway this evening in LA, and we will play the Nuggets-Lakers UNDER the posted price.

First off, Denver has had a few extra days rest, and will more than likely be a little rusty coming out of the gate which will keep points off the board. Secondly, the Nuggets have played UNDER the total in 7 of their last 10 on the road, and Denver is also on an 11-4 LOW clip their last 15 when catching points.

The Lakers meanwhile have played UNDER the total in their last 4 games, and 8 of their last 10 overall. Los Angeles is also on a 24-9 UNDER run their last 33 when installed as the favorite.

A look at the series totals show 6 of the last 7 played between these west rivals staying LOW, as well as 9 of the last 13 contests played at the Staples Center holding UNDER.

Play on the LOW.

2♦ UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett

Philadelphia at CINCINNATI

Tonight in the National League, look for the pitchers to be in charge all the way in this Phillies-Reds clash.

Cole Hamels is starting to throw like Cole Hamels, as the southpaw has allowed only 3 earned runs over his last 17 innings of work. Hamels has also handcuffed the Reds the last 3 times he has faced them, allowing just 2 earned runs in 25 innings of work for a 3-0 mark!

Johnny Cueto has been very impressive this year for Cincy, sporting a 4-1 mark on the year with a 1.93 ERA. This will be Philadelphia's first look at the righty, so you have to figure Cueto will go through the lineup with little trouble his first couple of go'rounds.

Last year, 6 of the 8 season series meetings between the clubs stayed UNDER the total, and I like this one to stay LOW as well.

Hamels and Cueto mow them down tonight!

1♦ UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Maxwell

Texas at DETROIT +110

FREE winner coming on the diamond tonight as we play the Tigers at home against the Rangers.

Even though we not huge fans of the Tigers' Dontrelle Willis (0-0, 7.71 ERA), we love the fact the Rangers are horrible on the road and have lost nine straight games in Detroit. So we'll take the plus-money and play the home team Tigers in this one.

Detroit swept the Rangers from April 10-12 already this season and Texas hasn't gotten a win in the Motor City since Sept. 11, 2007.

Willis is making just his second start since coming off the DL. In his debut on Wednesday he gave up four runs in 4.2 innings in a 14-10 loss to the Twins. Last time he faced Texas, he gave up three runs in five innings of an 11-8 loss in Arlington.

The Tigers just swept the A's and they've won four straight at home, and on Sunday they rallied from a 6-0 deficit to beat Oakland 11-7.

The Rangers have won seven in a row but it won't get to eight as they send Brandon McCarthy (3-1, 5.92 ERA) to the hill. He is 0-2 with a 4.79 ERA in eight outings against the Tigers.

Play the Tigers at home tonight as Willis has an acceptable performance and the offense dominates the Rangers. Detroit gets this one.

3♦ DETROIT

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Jordan

Baltimore at NEW YORK -290

Is the investment finally paying off? Could be, and let’s face it, I don’t care who you are – you throw on the stripes for the first time and come into the season as the No. 1 guy in the Bronx, you’re going to have jitters. You’re going to be thinking about it every time out there over your first few starts. So despite those obnoxiously priced seats behind and surrounding home plate being predominately empty over the first month and a half, C.C. Sabathia still felt every gawk, gaze, gape and glare in all three home starts.

Now it’s time to make things right.

He’s 0-1 at the new Yankee Stadium and has a 5.21 ERA, yes. But he’s coming around, and after two straight impressive outings on the road, it’s time to perform on his own mound. Last Thursday at Rogers Centre, Sabathia stifled the American League-leading Blue Jays by scattering five hits over eight innings, giving up just two runs and striking out five batters. His durability and efficiency shined through by throwing 111 pitches, 65 for strikes – a 59 percentile in the zone. Prior to that, on May 8 in Baltimore against these same O’s, he tossed a complete game shutout and fanned eight batters. Now he gets them on his turf, where, again, he’s got something to prove.

As for the run line, well, I’d like to think we’re going to get run support against Brad Bergesen, despite a sketchy offense that has been all over the place in terms of run scored night after night. For instance, the Yankees have scored anywhere from one run to as many as 10 this month, but is averaging just 4.8 runs per game in May. Back to Bergesen now, the fact opponents have hit .348 off Bergesen in his five starts this season leads me to believe a six-game win streak will have the Yankees having some fun tonight. Let’s lay the run line here, plus the vig (somewhere between -130 and -140), as the stripes take it to a travel weary O’s team that arrives from Kansas City and is in the middle of a 10-game homestand.

1♦ YANKEES

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jrtips

PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON

The Pittsburgh Pirates(17-21) are playing some of their best baseball of the season. They have won five of seven, including a season high-tying three straight because of success at the plate. The Pirates have recorded at least 11 hits in seven of their last eight games, batting .298 with runners in scoring position and .319 overall in that stretch.Pittsburgh had a season-high run total in an 11-4 win over Colorado on Sunday, then recorded a new season best in a 12-7 victory Monday night. The Washington Nationals are playing their worst in spite of solid performances at the plate.The Pirates look for their fourth straight win and give the Nationals their sixth loss. Washington's bullpen has been bullied all season as the Pirates took advantage of them again last night.The Nationals have lost eight of nine despite scoring at least five runs in each game during the slump while batting .305 and their relief pitchers have a 10.50 ERA in that span and the bullpen is last in the majors with a 6.68 ERA. Washington's Shairon Martis (5-0, 4.10 ERA) will take the mound and face Pittsburgh's Jeff Karstens who is 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. Karstens gave up three runs in six innings in his last outing. This Pittsburgh offense is hot and they will continue to put up runs against this terrible Washington national bullpen although the nationals will keep putting scores on the board as well. This one goes over easy.

TAKE OVER 10 runs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION

(502) Los Angeles Lakers -6.5

The Lakers struggled to put away the Houston Rockets in round
one and after rolling through the first two rounds of the playoffs the
Nuggets are now the sexy pick to win the West. I expect the
Nuggets to steal one in LA, but it won't be tonight. Lay the points.

2009 Free Selections Record 74-61 (54.8%)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

J.R. Miller

LAKERS -6.5 +101 over Nuggets
Nuggets at Lakers UNDER 215 -109

Major League Baseball:
CUBS -122 at Cardinals (Lilly-Pineiro)
GIANTS +128 at Padres (Zito-any pitcher)
METS +136 at Dodgers (Maine-Billingsley)
ANGELS +136 at Mariners (Palmer-Hernandez)


LAKERS -6.5 +101 over Nuggets
Nuggets at Lakers UNDER 215 -109
If a sports bettor can learn anything from the NBA playoffs, it's that motivation real-l-l-y counts, and that having home-court boosts motivation. A handicapper can build all the mathematical formulas and mathematical predictions he wants, but if Team A is more motivated than Team B, you can kiss Team B's ass good-bye.In this series between the Nuggets and Lakers, the home-team has a tremendous advantage, and since the Lakers have home-court advantage in this series the Nuggets really have their work cut-out for them. If the Nuggets manage to win one of these first two games at Los Angeles, they have an excellent chance of winning this series.....But that ain't the way to bet it. The Lakers figure to win the series, 4-3.What can go wrong in today's game for the Lakers? If they allow the Nuggets to keep the game close in the last couple of minutes the Nuggets may get a burst of motivation. A couple of lucky 3-pointers, or a couple misses by the Lakers, and who knows........? We're guessing the Lakers will win this first game my double digits. Look for the Lakers to score within two or three baskets of 107 points while the Nuggets score within two or three baskets of 96 points.

METS +136 at Dodgers (Maine-Billingsley)
The only reason we're on this game is the size of the posted line. Both these teams have good current bats and both these pitchers have excellent current stats. As best we can tell, this game figures to be very nearly a toss-up, with only home-field advantage being the difference against us. We'd take the Mets at +130 or more, we'd take the Dodgers at +110 or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Malinsky

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

Yes, we can start Tuesday right where Monday left off. Once again the Nationals are forced into the favorite’s role, this time to a rather high level, and they simply do not bring enough to the table to merit the price tag. So a resurgent Pittsburgh team that has won three straight games, scoring a confidence-boosting 30 runs in the process, is an easy fit in this range.

How does an 11-26 team with the worst defense and worst bullpen in the Major League’s get to this line plateau? Largely because a lot of weight is being given to starter Shairon Martis, who has worked to a 5-0/4.10 so far. But while Martis is a good prospect, he has been rather fortunate so far to get 6.4 runs per game scored behind him, a pace that will not keep up, and there are real concerns going forward concerning his style with this defense behind him. The Nationals are not only at the bottom of our best defensive tables, but are on the verge of turning in one of the worst defensive seasons we have ever charted. That is a problem for a guy that pitches to contact (only 21 strikeouts in 41.2 innings), and has to rely on the arms, legs and gloves behind him to record a lot of outs. There is a further problem for Manny Acta, who has to juggle between wanting to keep the work load light for the 22-year old Martis, and going to a bullpen that is working to a mind-numbing 6.68 tune. That count is the worst in the Major Leagues, and there is not a single reliable arm right now.

The Pirates have been much better than Washington defensively, rating #7 on our best tables, and they should get Nyjer Morgan back in the lineup tonight to help in that regard. And that makes life easier for Jeffrey Kartsens, who has been a victim of both weak offensive support and a high strand rate in recording a misleading 1-2/5.06 so far. Note that his 1.41 WHIP is nearly identical to the 1.37 of Martis, which creates a better perspective. He has not walked a batter over 12 innings of his last two starts, and is an under-valued commodity at this offering.

 

[ecrazul1977]

Winning Way Sports

Baseball for May 19, 2009

MLB - 2.5 units on Washington Nationals (-140)
- Karstens & Martis
- Action

MLB - 2.5 units on Philadelphia Phillies (-115)
- Hamels & Cueto
- Action

MLB - 2.5 units on Colorado Rockies +1.5 Runs (-110)
- Hammel & Jurrjens
- Listed Pitchers

MLB - 2.5 units on Toronto Blue Jays (+130)
- Tallet & Wakefield
- Action

MLB - 2.5 units on Kansas City Royals (+120)
- Lee & Bannister
- Action

Thanks for the post!!!

Do you have his NBA play??

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Over 10

The Nationals have the worst record in baseball. And it's not because of their hitting.

Washington has scored at least five runs in 11 of its last 12 games. Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn are on pace to each drive in 130 runs. Christian Guzman is leading the NL in batting.

Washington's problem is a double whammy. The Nationals have the worst defense in baseball and the worst bullpen. That's why the team could set a National League record for most runs given up in a season.

I had an easy winner last night with the Pirates-Nationals over the total. There's no reason not to come right back with another over on these two teams. The over has cashed in eight of Washington's past nine games.

Washington's bullpen not only is horrendous, but now there are fatigue issues after last night's battering. The Nationals not only lack a legitimate closer, but a bridge to even get to the ninth. Expect more wholesale bullpen changes from Washington in the next couple of days.

Shairon Martis gets the start for Washington. He may be the Nationals best starter. But he's a rookie with command issues.

The Pirates are swinging their hottest bats. They are averaging .319 in their last eight games.

The total is the way to go rather than the underdog Pirates because Jeff Karstens is on the hill for them. I don't think he's even good enough to be a fifth-starter, which he currently is right now. Karstens has a 5.06 ERA. Pittsburgh's bullpen also carries a fatigue rating.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rocketman

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Play : Chicago White Sox

Minnesota is scoring only 3.7 runs per game on the road this season. Minnesota bullpen has a 5.25 ERA overall this year. Chicago White Sox bullpen has a 3.64 ERA overall this year. Scott Baker is 1-4 with a 6.95 ERA overall this year including 0-1 with an 11.56 ERA on the road this season. Mark Buehrle is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA overall this year, 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Baker has a whopping 6.81 ERA overall vs Chicago White Sox since 1997 while Buehrle is 22-13 with a 3.72 ERA overall vs Minnesota since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox tonight!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota starter Scott Baker has a better than 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Twins are 20-9 vs. an opponent that scored 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 5-1 with Baker vs. the White Sox. Chicago is 0-5 their last games vs. righty starters and they are 1-6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. The White Sox are 0-5 when their opponent allowed 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 8-21 when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5. PLAY ON MINNESOTA w/Baker

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits

Chicago Cubs -120

The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are two teams heading in opposite directions, and we look for that to continue tonight in St. Louis.

The Cubs lost 6-5 to the Houston Astros Sunday, but that snapped a five game winning streak, and we look for them to start a new streak tonight. Their starter Ted Lilly is off to a fine start, as he is 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and five Quality Starts in his last six outings. He also has six Quality Starts in his last seven appearances vs. the Cardinals the last two seasons, and he should take advantage of a Cardinal lineup batting .184 vs. lefties the last 10 games.

St. Louis starter Joel Pineiro comes in off of a couple of rocky outings, especially his last vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates as he allowed five earned on 11 hits in six innings. He did toss a Quality Start in his only outing vs. the Cubs last year, but he had a lot more offensive support then and his bullpen still managed to blow that game for him. Now, he is pitching for a team struggling to score runs and that still has a weak pen.

Playing on the road actually serves to give us a manageable price on the Cubs in this spot.

Pick: Cubs -120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MTi Sports

Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are 10-0 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and 8-0 and it is the first game of the series. The Astros are 0-5 as a dog after scoring 6+ runs and winning. Consider taking Milwaukee.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -118

The Brewers have won 6 in a row and 21 of their last 27 overall and I don't see their momentum slowing against a Houston team that can't stack up at the plate. Bush has been very good for Milwaukee this season at 2-0 with an ERA of 3.52. The Astros' Hampton is 1-2 with an ERA of 7.47 over his last 3 starts. The Brewers are 8-0 in their last 8 game 1's of a series, 5-0 in Bush's last 5 starts, and 12-2 in Bush's last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are 0-4 in Hampton's last 4 home starts, 1-5 in their last 6 game 1's of a series, and 1-10 in their last 11 games following an off day. I'll back the red hot Brewers again tonight.

 

[cork999]

anthony redd

tuesday's card
10 dime lakers

is this confirmed???

 

[BoutMyMoney]

teddy covers
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Oak/Tb over 9.5 BIG TICKET
Red Sox

Lakers
<!-- / message -->

is this OAK/TBAY over confirmed?
he had it last night as well???

 

[ERCapper]

Steve Budin has a 25 dime Baseball play after 3 or 4 losses

He say is an underdog play

 

[jordan17]

god please!
@)