Perhaps.
But a whole bunch of "sharps" and "pros" insisted that SF was the value play.
You're simply proving my point - this is all perspective, not some objective fact.
Imagine for a second that the line was SF +7 in that game. The guys on VSIN would have mortgaged their homes to take the points (don't forget another stupid cliche KEY NUMBER!) because of the "value"
Exactly.
No such thing as a "bad number", as long you're on the winning side...the decisive winning side.
This sounds like blasphemy to "numbers" nerds who spend hours on their spreadsheets looking for "market inefficiencies" over a sample of thousands of games, but on any particular game it is absolutely true.
So if you have info the Dodgers are going to blow out the DBacks on any given day because the Dbacks were partying too late, you can lay -500 or -600 or -3.5 pts on the Dodgers. If the Dodgers win by 11-12 runs and you cover by the 2nd inning... "value" in this example is meaningless. In this case, there is no such thing as an "edge" on the DBacks, no matter how many points you are gifted because it's the losing side.
As we've so often heard, forget the spread, just pick the damn winner. If you're uncomfortable laying the necessary points not wanting to get screwed over by a last minute cover (after all, NFL coaches game plan around the ML, not the spread) double, triple up or more laying the ML juice.
One thing I observed long ago scouring the Internet looking for "blind value" vis-a-vis betting numbers off the market mean is the representation behind those numbers was a far greater an edge than the actual mathematical value. In other words, only certain sportsbooks would yield a profit consistently betting 1-1.5 points off the market mean, others were consistent losers - all documented.
This means sharp plays...REAL sharp info/moves are derived from INSIDE INFORMATION, not mythical "mathematical edges".
There is value in getting a good line or off line. Sure getting good value doenst always mean winning,
disagree with mortgaging homes. Professional bettors have money management skills. Fish don’t. If you see someone going from 1 unit to 25.. it’s not someone who is a winner, it’s big ol fish
disagree with mortgaging homes. Professional bettors have money management skills. Fish don’t. If you see someone going from 1 unit to 25.. it’s not someone who is a winner, it’s big ol fish
Some of you are missing the point
You may be right in a specific 1 game scenario and as I said value does not mean winning
Many factors go into a line including situations and such
So, you may get a good team at a short number
Best example is often college hoops where people see a low line with a home team and think Vegas knows something thats why the line seems low only for the home team to win easy
Now if you bet everyrthing on that game and the roadteam wins you are left thinking they did know something
But if you keep finding and playing those lines because home advantage is huge in college hoops you grinfd out wins
What I call value plays
If you are grinding and not looking to unload 50-100% of your roll on a game then that is how value plays work
If you are not relying on 1 game winner take all there is value on lines in the long run
Anyone who doesn't understand Mahomes and KC at home just having to win is value then I don't know what to say
You may be right in a specific 1 game scenario and as I said value does not mean winning
Many factors go into a line including situations and such
So, you may get a good team at a short number
Best example is often college hoops where people see a low line with a home team and think Vegas knows something thats why the line seems low only for the home team to win easy
Now if you bet everyrthing on that game and the roadteam wins you are left thinking they did know something
But if you keep finding and playing those lines because home advantage is huge in college hoops you grinfd out wins
What I call value plays
If you are grinding and not looking to unload 50-100% of your roll on a game then that is how value plays work
If you are not relying on 1 game winner take all there is value on lines in the long run
Anyone who doesn't understand Mahomes and KC at home just having to win is value then I don't know what to say
Patently untrue.
If there are 30 games on the board and a sharp book is giving you great "value" on 2-3 of those games, you will lose consistently betting into that so-called "value". That's because REAL bookmakers use big $$$ bettors to sharpen their lines. Great, so you shopped for that extra 1/2 point, but now your "value" bet is down 28 points by halftime! Now what?
Also, "professional bettors" have near unlimited capital and resources, so employing sound money management makes sense. Most bettors have neither, so the old "money management" axiom of creating a BR and then breaking down your bets into "units" is a sucker's game - the house will grind you down every time.
Instead, start with nothing ($10, $20, $50... some pocket change $$$ you can easily afford to lose) and pick your spots "letting it ride" on high percentage games. Yes, "mortgaging the house" providing "the house" isn't higher in value than a dinner at McDees.
All bettors (and teams for that matter) have cold and hot streaks - the idea for someone with limited means (the vast majority in relative terms) is to maximize their profit during those hot streaks while minimizing their losses during the cold streaks. Like playing slots...you're not going to beat the house sitting at a slot machine for hours with a built in mathematical edge against you...but you CAN get HOT for short periods, then cash out. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Cue all the posters lined up ready to blast me for breaking every rule in the book because...THEIR desktop spreadsheets/methodology are the golden gooses of sports betting giving them long term mathematical edges, like the house or a top betting syndicate. Note what those two entities have in common: near unlimited information resources AND capital.
Value had to do with the spreads most of the time -if you thinking that day a pk game like this SB for instance and say you think this will be decided by less then 7 then value would be on the teaser either way but of course you need to get the over n under right -or straight bet buying kc say to 3 which I think would be a good play at this point but of course things can change
I have no idea where this "value" word came from in the thread. It wasn't me who mentioned it. I mentioned "price".
Baylor Gonzaga, our resident expert had Gonzaga every half point in that game on all the alternate lines all the way up to Gonzaga -10 or something. 75-100 units on that game alone.
value is how you define it. Can tell by these posts that it obviously means a lot different to some than others. Really no right or wrong. All how you want to define it.
