no time for write-ups
4* iowa -3 -120
2 solid defenses, one solid run game
2* clemson -1
too much speed on both sides of the ball imo
6* penn st +9
could write a whole page on this one...
penn st is legit
usc defense is special, but you would think butkis, LT, and mean joe was playing
good luck
4* iowa -3 -120
2 solid defenses, one solid run game
2* clemson -1
too much speed on both sides of the ball imo
6* penn st +9
could write a whole page on this one...
penn st is legit
usc defense is special, but you would think butkis, LT, and mean joe was playing
good luck
3* oh st +10 -120
too much talk about this game so i'll just make few points:
texas #5 in nation in def ypr (2.8, which is more important and relevant than ypg)...pretty impressive, but ncaa takes ydg off rush numbers for qb sacks. texas #1 in nation in sacks...so when you look at texas def ypr on just RUNNING PLAYS they give up 4.5 ypr... just for comparison, oh st gives up 3.7, which adjusts to 4.4 when sacks taken out...but there's no denying who has the better rush offense.
obviously the strong suit for texas defense is their pass rush...but only 4 teams in the country attempted less passes than oh st (gtech, army, navy, air force). can't sack the qb if he's not dropping back to pass...and when he does, he's pretty mobile!!! look at the success robert griffin had vs texas...i know he's a little quicker than pryor, but the same type of qb
one last thing:
last year oh st was +4 in NC game, a virtual home game for LSU
this year texas closed a 4 pt favorite AT HOME vs missouri
there is absolutely no line value with texas at this number!!!
yes, they might win by 4 TD's, that is not the point...this is an extreme overlay with texas...that's probably why, even with everone betting texas (68%), the line has barely moved (9 is one of the weakest numbers, that move means practically nothing for the books)
good luck
too much talk about this game so i'll just make few points:
texas #5 in nation in def ypr (2.8, which is more important and relevant than ypg)...pretty impressive, but ncaa takes ydg off rush numbers for qb sacks. texas #1 in nation in sacks...so when you look at texas def ypr on just RUNNING PLAYS they give up 4.5 ypr... just for comparison, oh st gives up 3.7, which adjusts to 4.4 when sacks taken out...but there's no denying who has the better rush offense.
obviously the strong suit for texas defense is their pass rush...but only 4 teams in the country attempted less passes than oh st (gtech, army, navy, air force). can't sack the qb if he's not dropping back to pass...and when he does, he's pretty mobile!!! look at the success robert griffin had vs texas...i know he's a little quicker than pryor, but the same type of qb
one last thing:
last year oh st was +4 in NC game, a virtual home game for LSU
this year texas closed a 4 pt favorite AT HOME vs missouri
there is absolutely no line value with texas at this number!!!
yes, they might win by 4 TD's, that is not the point...this is an extreme overlay with texas...that's probably why, even with everone betting texas (68%), the line has barely moved (9 is one of the weakest numbers, that move means practically nothing for the books)
good luck
4* UF -4
pending future play:
1* uf +650
this game has been talked about ad nausem so i'll just add a few thoughts of mine:
Texas (45) and Oklahoma st (41) each scored over 40 pts vs Oklahoma...they both have excellent offenses. Florida's is better. I would be surprised if UF was held below 40, expect their offense to score anywhere between 34-52.
If you're looking for a good comparison, check out zac robinson's performance against the sooners...he scorched them for 3 tds, a 177 passer rating (his season avg was 166), and over 100 yds rushing and another TD on the ground...he's similar in style and abilities to Tebow, but Tebow is better and has a better supporting cast.
You probably think of UF, since they're offense is so high-powered, as a passing team, but actually they run the ball around 63% of the time, avg 6 ypc which is #2 of all BCS teams behind oregon...Oklahoma's offense is more pass-oriented than the gators, with a 53/47 run/pass split. Siding with the better running team who is more likely to rely on the ground game.
Before the season started both teams had a "Game of the Year", to be played at a neutral site, circled on their calendars.
For OK it was Texas. They lost.
For UF it was Georgia. They blew them out.
yes Ok won big games this year, but all of those were because of the ramifications of how the season played out. Obviously tex tech, ok st, and b12 champ game Mizzou were big games. But none were bigger than the Texas game.
The SEC championship game was the most important game played in college football this season...It was a winner-take-all "Semi-Final" for a spot in the NC title game...i'm not trying to belittle the b12 champ game, but it did not nearly have the same ramifications or repurcussions of the SEC game. Alabama would be in this game if they had won. Mizzou would have played in the Cotton Bowl if they won...
My point is simply when the brightest of lights were on, UF rose to the top of their game and clearly separated themselves from their competition. Oklahoma did not do that in the Red River game. It's hard to ignore this intangible!
Now i completely respect the talent on Oklahoma...IMO they are either the second or third best team in the nation and are capable of pulling the upset...but for this to happen, for OK backers, i would think they would need "all hands on deck"...in other words, demarco murray and to a lesser extent Granger on defense. I feel they were already at a competitive disadvantage, but to lose a dynamic playmaker like murray, especially in the run game where they are already behind Florida, is troubling...Losing Granger to defend florida's run game, while not as drastic, is still a loss. throw in Austin Box being hobbled and not 100% (split time or ineffective..??) and the negatives keep piling up...throw in this game being played in Florida and the intangibles DEFINITELY favor the gators. Given that I feel Florida is the better all-around team I would think the intangibles, in order to pull the upset, would need to be on the OK side, or at least neutralized. This doesn't seem to be the case.
I also have a future play on UF to win the Nat'l Title. To me the bottom line is this:
Before the season started I felt UF was the best team in the country.
Absolutely nothing has happened over the last 5 months to change my mind...
I still feel Florida is the best team in the country.
good luck
pending future play:
1* uf +650
this game has been talked about ad nausem so i'll just add a few thoughts of mine:
Texas (45) and Oklahoma st (41) each scored over 40 pts vs Oklahoma...they both have excellent offenses. Florida's is better. I would be surprised if UF was held below 40, expect their offense to score anywhere between 34-52.
If you're looking for a good comparison, check out zac robinson's performance against the sooners...he scorched them for 3 tds, a 177 passer rating (his season avg was 166), and over 100 yds rushing and another TD on the ground...he's similar in style and abilities to Tebow, but Tebow is better and has a better supporting cast.
You probably think of UF, since they're offense is so high-powered, as a passing team, but actually they run the ball around 63% of the time, avg 6 ypc which is #2 of all BCS teams behind oregon...Oklahoma's offense is more pass-oriented than the gators, with a 53/47 run/pass split. Siding with the better running team who is more likely to rely on the ground game.
Before the season started both teams had a "Game of the Year", to be played at a neutral site, circled on their calendars.
For OK it was Texas. They lost.
For UF it was Georgia. They blew them out.
yes Ok won big games this year, but all of those were because of the ramifications of how the season played out. Obviously tex tech, ok st, and b12 champ game Mizzou were big games. But none were bigger than the Texas game.
The SEC championship game was the most important game played in college football this season...It was a winner-take-all "Semi-Final" for a spot in the NC title game...i'm not trying to belittle the b12 champ game, but it did not nearly have the same ramifications or repurcussions of the SEC game. Alabama would be in this game if they had won. Mizzou would have played in the Cotton Bowl if they won...
My point is simply when the brightest of lights were on, UF rose to the top of their game and clearly separated themselves from their competition. Oklahoma did not do that in the Red River game. It's hard to ignore this intangible!
Now i completely respect the talent on Oklahoma...IMO they are either the second or third best team in the nation and are capable of pulling the upset...but for this to happen, for OK backers, i would think they would need "all hands on deck"...in other words, demarco murray and to a lesser extent Granger on defense. I feel they were already at a competitive disadvantage, but to lose a dynamic playmaker like murray, especially in the run game where they are already behind Florida, is troubling...Losing Granger to defend florida's run game, while not as drastic, is still a loss. throw in Austin Box being hobbled and not 100% (split time or ineffective..??) and the negatives keep piling up...throw in this game being played in Florida and the intangibles DEFINITELY favor the gators. Given that I feel Florida is the better all-around team I would think the intangibles, in order to pull the upset, would need to be on the OK side, or at least neutralized. This doesn't seem to be the case.
I also have a future play on UF to win the Nat'l Title. To me the bottom line is this:
Before the season started I felt UF was the best team in the country.
Absolutely nothing has happened over the last 5 months to change my mind...
I still feel Florida is the best team in the country.
good luck
murphy gets it done in the 1st half
doesn't gain a yd in the 2nd half!!
brown runs well but i pay no juice
of all of them i loved the bradford under but it was such a kooky prop that i couldn't pound it...was over in the first series when he got sacked for a 14 yd loss...getting plus money on it was sweet
Took OU at +6 for a small play. I had OU 9-1 and Florida 2-1 in some futures so I still made out. Entertaining game but I have to scratch my head at some of Stoops play calling. I think Florida was the better team tonight, and their defense held when it came down to it, but I still think Ou should have covered the number. The opening line of -3 was right on IMHO.
Here's to another great college season trent:toast:
BOL next year.
Here's to another great college season trent:toast:
BOL next year.
Glad to hear you cashed some tickets...
the future play for me was really big...not just the 6.5* it won me...it was a culmination of another successful season wagering on this sport.
Last year i had LSU 12-1 but i made a play on oh st in the NC game...this year i felt florida was the right play so there was no hedge...but picking a team to win it all on July 14 (i check my wager last night after it became official and that was the date i placed it) and having it come to fruition on the last day of college football was extremely gratifying. even more so than last year since i didn't do as well this year with my weekly plays (i grinded out a small 4* profit during the regular season).
Last year my 12-1 LSU (.2* to win 2.4*) was almost an afterthought because i did much better during the regular season so i was a winner either way...this year it pretty much all came down to this play.
it's nice to walk away a winner..!!
always good hearing your thoughts-
looking forward to it again next season
:toast:
