My guess is 7-8 on this pullback ... Assuming we are heading upwards longer term ... Nothing goes straight up and these types of issues tend to be extremely volitile ... Got caught snoozing on the morning ramp guessing I woulda dumped some hoping to buy back cheaper ... Oh well u snooze u lose
If frost wants to he can control the price of MSLP.
He could send this thing to $30 a share with money he finds under his couch cushions.
I have not done a ton of research on this stock so maybe you know the answer.
Is there enough outstanding shares for Frost to take over the company?
I doubt he wants to take it over ....as far as run it ... He's got other things to do ... Just has his big interest and can help the CEO with certain issues etc .... Assuming things go well going forward guessing they get gobbled up by a bigger entity eventually ...
As far as "controlling prices" that can only last so long eventually you need to produce results to support the valuations ... I'm not betting against frost on opk but I'm not betting with him either ... Just too many unknowns at its 2 billion valuation and shorts are lining up to say they won't produce the hype ... Who knows but not for me
As far as "controlling prices" that can only last so long eventually you need to produce results to support the valuations ... I'm not betting against frost on opk but I'm not betting with him either ... Just too many unknowns at its 2 billion valuation and shorts are lining up to say they won't produce the hype ... Who knows but not for me
What are you guys using to track frost?
The only site ive found is this one http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/898860.htm and it doesn't say anything about MSLP
The only site ive found is this one http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/898860.htm and it doesn't say anything about MSLP
There are a lot of places to track insider trading.
An inside trade is required to be made public with the form4 48 hours after the close of the market on the day of the trade.
The site you listed is a great site to keep up with insider trades.
I use finviz.com due to its user friendly setup.
I can check insider trades and every other thing I look for in a stock.
As far as Frost and MSLP Tiz could tell you more about that.
I have not done much research on MSLP because it did not meet my criteria for buying into it.
But I did buy a small lot of shares blindly based on Frost alone.
As far as I know Frost has only bought into the company 1 time about a month ago.
I could be wrong about that though.
And unless Frost owns at least 10% of the shares of the company or unless he is an official member of the board he is not required to fill out a form4.
Frost personal investment only 1.4 million but he was the lead in a group tht gave them the financing... Maybe he's added more I don't know..
Excessive executive pay packages, excessive wasteful spending, etc got them into debt trouble and is the reason it was so depressed
They cut pay in half and now cleared the debt with recent round of financing, they just announced another round today, as they trying to get balance sheet pretty for the planned uplisting
So they essentially now get a fresh start and still have a high demand product with crazy sales growth.. Now just need to convert that into profits ....
I don't really follow insider trading that much just googled frost cause of this thread ... And ran across mslp ... Like what I saw as a speculative play and gave it a whirl
Excessive executive pay packages, excessive wasteful spending, etc got them into debt trouble and is the reason it was so depressed
They cut pay in half and now cleared the debt with recent round of financing, they just announced another round today, as they trying to get balance sheet pretty for the planned uplisting
So they essentially now get a fresh start and still have a high demand product with crazy sales growth.. Now just need to convert that into profits ....
I don't really follow insider trading that much just googled frost cause of this thread ... And ran across mslp ... Like what I saw as a speculative play and gave it a whirl
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1333381-valuation-model-for-opko-health-14-88
Disclosure: I am long OPK. (More...)
He did it again! Richard Pearson wrote an article for Seeking Alpha that moved the stock in his direction (down). There are many aspects of his article that warrant correcting including the significance of the CEO dollar cost averaging into his company, the institutional ownership percentage of the available common stock, and the valuation of the company. But this last one is most important.
Beware of uneducated bloggers that claim to know an accurate valuation without describing their methodology.
Here is a model to value Opko Health (OPK) and similar companies that don't have meaningful current sales or earnings. The inputs are: future valuation as a multiple of sales, potential sales, likelihood of those sales, time to sales, and a discount rate.
One can argue about the values of the inputs, but not on the methodology. I have examples below for two products, and I encourage others to expand this model to include more accurate inputs, a range of inputs, and inputs from more potential Opko products.
Future Valuation (for both products) = 2 times Sales.
PV of Prostate Cancer Tests = (2 x (2.5B x 0.50))/1.12 = 2.23B
PV of CytoChroma Products = (2 x (6.5B x 0.25))/1.12^2 = 2.59B
Total: 2.23B + 2.59B = 4.82B That is $14.88 per share.
This is an expected value calculation, discounted to present value. The risk is embedded in the probability. If you think the likelihood of these sales figures are different, then change them. If you think the potential sales figures are different, then change them. I used the 6.5B figure fromJosh Ginsburg's article on Seeking Alpha, but that may be too low because he made adjustments for the overall market share. The prostate cancer potential sales number is potentially too low as well. For example, perhaps the potential CytoChroma sales are really 18B but the probability is only 10%. That would actually increase the overall value.
25% is a reasonable probability for a Phase III drug to be successful.Here is a study that puts the range between 25 and 50%.
A milestone payment should be treated similarly, with a possible amount, a probability, and a higher valuation multiple because it is all profit.
In conclusion, contrary to what Mr. Pearson believes, it IS possible to rationally value Opko's stock. 16.4% of the stock is owned by institutions. That is over 30% of the float. How do you think they are doing it?
Disclosure: I am long OPK. (More...)
He did it again! Richard Pearson wrote an article for Seeking Alpha that moved the stock in his direction (down). There are many aspects of his article that warrant correcting including the significance of the CEO dollar cost averaging into his company, the institutional ownership percentage of the available common stock, and the valuation of the company. But this last one is most important.
Beware of uneducated bloggers that claim to know an accurate valuation without describing their methodology.
Here is a model to value Opko Health (OPK) and similar companies that don't have meaningful current sales or earnings. The inputs are: future valuation as a multiple of sales, potential sales, likelihood of those sales, time to sales, and a discount rate.
One can argue about the values of the inputs, but not on the methodology. I have examples below for two products, and I encourage others to expand this model to include more accurate inputs, a range of inputs, and inputs from more potential Opko products.
Future Valuation (for both products) = 2 times Sales.
| Product | Prostate Cancer Test | CytoChroma |
| Potential Sales | 2.5B | 6.5B |
| Probability | 50% | 25% |
| Time to Sales | 1 Year | 2 Years |
| Discount Rate | 12% | 12% |
| Present Value (PV) | $2.23B | $2.59B |
PV of CytoChroma Products = (2 x (6.5B x 0.25))/1.12^2 = 2.59B
Total: 2.23B + 2.59B = 4.82B That is $14.88 per share.
This is an expected value calculation, discounted to present value. The risk is embedded in the probability. If you think the likelihood of these sales figures are different, then change them. If you think the potential sales figures are different, then change them. I used the 6.5B figure fromJosh Ginsburg's article on Seeking Alpha, but that may be too low because he made adjustments for the overall market share. The prostate cancer potential sales number is potentially too low as well. For example, perhaps the potential CytoChroma sales are really 18B but the probability is only 10%. That would actually increase the overall value.
25% is a reasonable probability for a Phase III drug to be successful.Here is a study that puts the range between 25 and 50%.
A milestone payment should be treated similarly, with a possible amount, a probability, and a higher valuation multiple because it is all profit.
In conclusion, contrary to what Mr. Pearson believes, it IS possible to rationally value Opko's stock. 16.4% of the stock is owned by institutions. That is over 30% of the float. How do you think they are doing it?
Mslp perking up again was ready to add more in the 7s and it hits a low of 8 argg lol ... Will see if it can push to new highs (last high 11.89) on this push ... Just seemed like a healthy correction after the run from 5 to 11.89 .... 2 steps forward one step back been the trend since frost got on board
Im talking about MSLP
I did about 15 minutes of research and composed this google portfolio of Phillip Frost's holdings... Does this look complete?
| Name | Symbol | Last price | Change | Mkt cap | Volume▼ | Open | High | Low | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teva Pharmaceutical... | TEVA | 40.00 | +0.51 (1.29%) | 34.08B | 4.70M | 39.49 | 40.11 | 39.46 | ||
| Opko Health Inc. | OPK | 6.54 | +0.04 (0.62%) | 2.20B | 1.09M | 6.62 | 6.62 | 6.44 | ||
| Pershing Gold Corp | PGLC | 0.415* | -0.015 (-3.49%) | 106.50M | 325,641.00 | 0.437 | 0.437 | 0.404 | ||
| Chromadex Corp | CDXC | 0.850* | +0.020 (2.41%) | 84.21M | 288,954.00 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.82 | ||
| Ladenburg Thalmann... | LTS | 1.63 | +0.01 (0.62%) | 299.15M | 160,406.00 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.6 | ||
| Muscle Pharm Corporation... | MSLP | 11.00* | 0.00 (0.00%) | 29.17M | 23,443.00 | 11 | 11 | 10.8 | ||
| Passport Potash Inc | PPRTF | 0.176* | -0.014 (-7.53%) | 34.88M | 22,500.00 | 0.1835 | 0.19 | 0.1757 | ||
| Tiger Media Inc | IDI | 1.00 | -0.05 (-4.76%) | 30.14M | 1,300.00 | 1.012 | 1.012 | 1 |
Thats all the positions he has enough ownership where he is required to fill out a public holding form.
