the orioles game was one of maybe 2 times that i actually posted that i was doubtful, b/c yeah, i was, i was confident in teh play at first but felt a little less sure about it when i woke up in the morning. i felt confident enough to stay tihw the play though, would have been easy to just bet the jays and lose a couple bucks regardless, even take the -1.5 jays and make more money possibly.
i don't think value's a big mistake...u just have to be consistent in playing value plays because they will cash not 100% but i believe enough to where you're up.
I don't play favs that are -200 because i dont see value in laying 2 to 1 on one game in 162 game season. -1.5 with reduced juice? sure. or hey, take the dog -1.5 at +350/400, lay 1/2 unit on it, make 3-4 times as much, b/c hey if the nubmers show that the pitcher isn't absolutely awful and the hitters haven't done terribly vs. the opposing pitcher, there's value in betting it because it's feasible it could happen.
then again i don't see putting a whole unit on it because chances arent great the team will win.
i dont konw why this got moved to the RR...i hear what you're saying, agree somewhat but still feel my plays have value, are selective, and hopefully ill start winning more.