tracking prediction tracker strong picks (boredom/learning exercise)

rivercitybirdie · Jan 3, 2015

i think you are correct although i'm not 100% sure. i have the historical data but it's in a different format from the daily data as on first glance it looks like they only have the input to the average forecasted spread ........ i think you are correct tho so last night's 2-3 moves to a 3-2........... i knew getting cute with a little comment about geography might screw me up.

ok, i have 5 games for today... first day i noticed alot of games and not that many spreads in disagreement with power ratings. the obvious reason is that conference games probably improve the power ratings accuracy alot.

today

davidson
dayton
northeastern
eastern illinois
tn state

rivercitybirdie · Jan 3, 2015

so saturday is 4-0 with tennessee state (not looking good so far) to come.

so we've had 2 big days and a bunch of minor-slightly moderate losing days........ have to tally it up soon.

as power ratings improve maybe the picks will get tighter.

rivercitybirdie · Jan 4, 2015

4-1 yesterday.....

sunday... i'm going to switch to sagarin differences from the updated lines. throws up many more big mispriced games (although will probably still have what i would have posted with prediction average) and perhaps alot of people watch sagarin.

anyway today

cali, canisius, evansville, niagara................ more lake erie picks

rivercitybirdie · Jan 5, 2015

i think all we have today (monday) is hofstra which is already an ATS L......

seems like point spread vs power rating prediction have really tightened... i'm guessing power ratings aren't nearly as informative before conference games being.

going to investigate the point spread ranges. seems like the power ratings pick alot of teams favoured by 20 to win by 24 and subsequently ATS loss alot... obviously the 20 and 24 points are generally numbers.