I'm playing CLE and the other 6 ML sides to Win their games only. I only have 1 Under Play and 1 Over play on the card today.
The percentages are from my 2 spreadsheets, the 1st is from 1 June, the 2nd is the last 12 days only. The percentage is the amount of individual innings that they scored a run in, regardless of amount, divided by innings they batted in. For the TOTALS I added the 2 teams percentages together.
:toast:
Sorry I missed the first game for the day, guys. I put together the picks last night and was waiting on the line for the Cubs game, and didn't get to get back on before the early game started. Here are the picks I see for the data from June 1st onwards.
MLs
LAA - 13%
COL - 12%
TOR - 10%
MIL - 9%
TAM - 8%
CLE - 7%
Unders
CWS/CIN - Under 9 - Average 22.5%
OAK/SDG - Under 7 - Average 19.5%
Overs
STL/KAN - Over 9 - 26%
HOU/MIN - Over 8.5 - 27.5%
ARI/SEA - Over 8 - 27%
Overs that are 9.5 or higher (Play at your own risk!)
PIT/COL - Over 10 - 30%
MIL/DET - Over 10 - 27.5%
ATL/BOS - Over 10.5 - 26.5%
BAL/PHI - Over 10 - 27%
TAM/NYM - Over 9.5 - 30%
NYY/FLA - Over 9.5 - 28.5%
As you can see, using only 12 days of data changed the picks a little. There were fewer picks, but this may be a good thing. Jersey's data is more recent, so some teams may be playing a lot worse or better than the beginning of the month.
There are a lot of Overs that were playable, but were 9.5 and up. We haven't had luck with these, so I'm not playing them. What I will do tonight after the games though is compare percentages to which games won. If I start seeing a trend of higher percentages winning more on Overs and vice versa for the unders, then I may start ranking the plays in order of percentages. Good luck, everyone.
Negative Sir. I'm only using Bookmaker and 5dimes.
LAA (12%,12%) -102 currently -109 at 5dimes and -117 at Bookmaker
TOR (10%, 13%) -112 currently +102 at 5dimes and -105 at Bookmaker
Thats the good and bad about overnight/early lines, they WILL change, I just hope I'm on the right side. I did good with LAA, but bad with TOR.
:toast:
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abc,
In our differences in our selections today:
I have Boston as a play on both spreadsheets (8%, 7%), you didn't touch this one.
You have CWS/CIN Under 9, I stayed away from it as I have them as 45% together divided by 2 is 22.5%, its over the 21% so I stayed away.
I have LOS/LAA (58%,68%) OVER 8-105, you didn't play it.
You have 3 Overs I didn't play:
STL/KAN - Over 9 - 26%
HOU/MIN - Over 8.5 - 27.5%
ARI/SEA - Over 8 - 27%
Heres both percentages (we have spreadsheet 1 the same):
STL/KC as 52%, 59%
HOU/MIN 55%, 56%
ARI/SEA 54%, 56%
I didn't play them as they are less than 58% combined. STL/KC I could of went with it, but decided not to because of the 52% on the 1June spreadsheet.
Just wanted to clarify the differences. I hope they ALL win :>)
:toast:
In our differences in our selections today:
I have Boston as a play on both spreadsheets (8%, 7%), you didn't touch this one.
You have CWS/CIN Under 9, I stayed away from it as I have them as 45% together divided by 2 is 22.5%, its over the 21% so I stayed away.
I have LOS/LAA (58%,68%) OVER 8-105, you didn't play it.
You have 3 Overs I didn't play:
STL/KAN - Over 9 - 26%
HOU/MIN - Over 8.5 - 27.5%
ARI/SEA - Over 8 - 27%
Heres both percentages (we have spreadsheet 1 the same):
STL/KC as 52%, 59%
HOU/MIN 55%, 56%
ARI/SEA 54%, 56%
I didn't play them as they are less than 58% combined. STL/KC I could of went with it, but decided not to because of the 52% on the 1June spreadsheet.
Just wanted to clarify the differences. I hope they ALL win :>)
:toast:
Crap, I did play the LAA game. I must have skipped over it when typing in the stuff from the spreadsheet.
The reason I have some Overs you didn't play is because I still followed the rules for the percent cutoffs per team. Each team still needed to meet the 28/29% or the 21%/22%. I was including averages as a measure of the team's strength together. For example, STL was 29% and KAN is 24%. These two meet the per team guidelines we had set before. 29% and 22% for the over. The average of these two teams brings their percentage below the 28% cutoff though. This is why I listed it as a play. I am hoping to see whether taking averages has an effect on wins/losses. I didn't play all the plays I have. I have listed them so everyone can see the math involved while I track a new approach to the system.
DAY 10 - June 19th RESULTS:
OAK/SD (38%,36%) UNDER 7.5 -130 LOST
LOS/LAA (58%,68%) OVER 8-105 WINNER
LAA (12%,12%) -102 WINNER
COL (12%,11%) -172 WINNER
TOR (10%, 13%) -112 LOST
CLE (8%,13%) -109 LOST
TB (8%,7%) -118 LOST
BOS (8%,7%) -150 LOST
MILW (8%,6%) +106 LOST
3-6 -4.19
Absolutely crushed with the 6% plays 0-4 -4.77,
If I would of just stuck with what was working well -
Under went 0-1 -1.30
OVERS where line is 9 or less 1-0 +1.00
9% and up went 2-1 +.88
we would of finished 3-2 +.58
The Overs where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY would of went 4-1!
Sorry guys,.
YTD (10 DAYS)
UNDERS 23-8-1 74% +14.40
OVERS where line is 9 or less 11-4-1 73% +6.40
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
OVERS where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY 0-2 0% -2.05
9% and Up Plays 18-6 75% +11.73
6% and Up Plays 23-14 62% +6.66
Overall 60-37-3 62% +18.56
OAK/SD (38%,36%) UNDER 7.5 -130 LOST
LOS/LAA (58%,68%) OVER 8-105 WINNER
LAA (12%,12%) -102 WINNER
COL (12%,11%) -172 WINNER
TOR (10%, 13%) -112 LOST
CLE (8%,13%) -109 LOST
TB (8%,7%) -118 LOST
BOS (8%,7%) -150 LOST
MILW (8%,6%) +106 LOST
3-6 -4.19
Absolutely crushed with the 6% plays 0-4 -4.77,
If I would of just stuck with what was working well -
Under went 0-1 -1.30
OVERS where line is 9 or less 1-0 +1.00
9% and up went 2-1 +.88
we would of finished 3-2 +.58
The Overs where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY would of went 4-1!
Sorry guys,.
YTD (10 DAYS)
UNDERS 23-8-1 74% +14.40
OVERS where line is 9 or less 11-4-1 73% +6.40
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
OVERS where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY 0-2 0% -2.05
9% and Up Plays 18-6 75% +11.73
6% and Up Plays 23-14 62% +6.66
Overall 60-37-3 62% +18.56
This is correctly updated:
YTD (10 DAYS)
UNDERS 23-9-1 72% +13.10
OVERS where line is 9 or less 12-4-1 75% +7.40
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
OVERS where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY 0-2 0% -2.05
9% and Up Plays 18-6 75% +11.73
6% and Up Plays 23-14 62% +6.66
Overall 60-37-3 62% +18.56
YTD (10 DAYS)
UNDERS 23-9-1 72% +13.10
OVERS where line is 9 or less 12-4-1 75% +7.40
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
OVERS where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY 0-2 0% -2.05
9% and Up Plays 18-6 75% +11.73
6% and Up Plays 23-14 62% +6.66
Overall 60-37-3 62% +18.56
