thanks for the props and flames
wow, havent been here in quite a while, I am working on a couple of sports market projects that will take up a lot of my time for the next year or three or more, buddy told me there might be something here I might want to see, good that a lot of the old gang is back
I'd like to point out what SSI has stated. The point is to make a ton of money in this market, I really dont care too much about who is <the best> or contests or really a whole lot outside of hitting at least 53% on 3000 wagers or more, and as Kodiak so astutely pointed out, hitting dog moneylines along the way in every sport aint so bad either. The guys who care about who is on or off a list generally are the same guys who arent making any coin, all they care about is recognition. That's the way it looks and the way a lot of people feel about it fwiw. No, this isnt directed at anyone (except Kodiak, who appears to have missed a couple of visits to his psycho-therapist dealing with his obsession over a proven loser internet poster starting with AT and ending with X lol), but for all the guys that havent been around as long, just grind it out and learn along the way and dont give a rat's ass about who thinks what about you. It's the money made that matters, these top poster lists start more wars than anything else, and unless MC and Big Dumb Bear
are giving out a couple of dimes for top 10 poster awards then is it really more important than spending this time on it rather than looking for a new 2nd half NCAA basketball angle? I think it's important for guys like MC to point out guys to talk to and get some names out there for discussion b/c everybody adds something and is a little different, but it's just not worth fighting over, nobody knew who freaking Billy Walters was either at first, but they sure as hell know who he is now.
I'm not sure when I'll get back to posting the usual 100 wagers a week, if ever. I am spending an extraordinary amount of time developing software and the algorithm behind it is still in the formative stages. It is not as much based on historics as it is predictive in nature, or at least that is what an engineer and I are spending so much time trying to program. Month one of at least 18, I would guess. I'm also writing more since that seems to be the best way to get things into code at present. I look up and it's after 4am seems to happen all-too-frequently these days.
be careful using a consensus approach, especially one with <hot cappers>. that means using several cappers that are hitting over 60% at present. I was just IM'ing someone about that, and several years ago before I bet much baseball or basketball I tried it while I was learning the ropes for a while and it sucked. people regress back to their average over time, few hit better than 55% over volume (kudos to the ones who do it!!) so when someone is sitting at 60% there is a decent chance of them losing back to an overall 55% SOON. now throw in 4 or 5 of these <hot> guys...
also, I am independent by nature. I think independence is necessary for success in this market. I dont think relying on other people for picks or relying on certain books for leans will guarantee future profit. Sure, there are quite a few good cappers here and on other forums in one sport every year. Some are good every year. Even some that
are good in every sport every year. Does that mean they will be good next year? NO. I think it is a good idea to look at the games and come up with your own conclusions, see how you were right, see how you were wrong, and if you follow someone else's advice look at the game and see why they like it. A lot of people see betting on sports as being too much about the actual line. This is a 500 billion dollar market, it is based primarily on public perception which drives price. If it wasnt, and was solely numbers-based then every person with a degree in statistics and an ounce of money management skill would be a multi-millionaire.
wow, havent been here in quite a while, I am working on a couple of sports market projects that will take up a lot of my time for the next year or three or more, buddy told me there might be something here I might want to see, good that a lot of the old gang is back
I'd like to point out what SSI has stated. The point is to make a ton of money in this market, I really dont care too much about who is <the best> or contests or really a whole lot outside of hitting at least 53% on 3000 wagers or more, and as Kodiak so astutely pointed out, hitting dog moneylines along the way in every sport aint so bad either. The guys who care about who is on or off a list generally are the same guys who arent making any coin, all they care about is recognition. That's the way it looks and the way a lot of people feel about it fwiw. No, this isnt directed at anyone (except Kodiak, who appears to have missed a couple of visits to his psycho-therapist dealing with his obsession over a proven loser internet poster starting with AT and ending with X lol), but for all the guys that havent been around as long, just grind it out and learn along the way and dont give a rat's ass about who thinks what about you. It's the money made that matters, these top poster lists start more wars than anything else, and unless MC and Big Dumb Bear
I'm not sure when I'll get back to posting the usual 100 wagers a week, if ever. I am spending an extraordinary amount of time developing software and the algorithm behind it is still in the formative stages. It is not as much based on historics as it is predictive in nature, or at least that is what an engineer and I are spending so much time trying to program. Month one of at least 18, I would guess. I'm also writing more since that seems to be the best way to get things into code at present. I look up and it's after 4am seems to happen all-too-frequently these days.
be careful using a consensus approach, especially one with <hot cappers>. that means using several cappers that are hitting over 60% at present. I was just IM'ing someone about that, and several years ago before I bet much baseball or basketball I tried it while I was learning the ropes for a while and it sucked. people regress back to their average over time, few hit better than 55% over volume (kudos to the ones who do it!!) so when someone is sitting at 60% there is a decent chance of them losing back to an overall 55% SOON. now throw in 4 or 5 of these <hot> guys...
also, I am independent by nature. I think independence is necessary for success in this market. I dont think relying on other people for picks or relying on certain books for leans will guarantee future profit. Sure, there are quite a few good cappers here and on other forums in one sport every year. Some are good every year. Even some that
are good in every sport every year. Does that mean they will be good next year? NO. I think it is a good idea to look at the games and come up with your own conclusions, see how you were right, see how you were wrong, and if you follow someone else's advice look at the game and see why they like it. A lot of people see betting on sports as being too much about the actual line. This is a 500 billion dollar market, it is based primarily on public perception which drives price. If it wasnt, and was solely numbers-based then every person with a degree in statistics and an ounce of money management skill would be a multi-millionaire.
By the way; concerning this past season's nfl cappers; let's set the record straight!
mfg was the man, documented!!!
as far as the rest, well here's a review in case you forgot; oh and by the way, most of these plays (90%)were at the rx before trk left!
http://forum.offshoregamblersdigest.com/index.php?showtopic=7982#
mfg was the man, documented!!!
as far as the rest, well here's a review in case you forgot; oh and by the way, most of these plays (90%)were at the rx before trk left!
http://forum.offshoregamblersdigest.com/index.php?showtopic=7982#
Kodiak,
feel free to show me where I "got killed" in football.
I dont post much football b/c I go to games and leave early. It is also a big time hassle trying to get on to this site on the weekends during football, and all this before noon. I think you equate lack of posting to "getting killed". You also tend to remember the one-time 0-5 Thursday-Friday wagers, and forget the +500 underdog SU wins. NFL preseason was also very good to me, I wont mention yours. I made money in football this year, not as much as I would have liked or have in the past, but if this is a bad year I'll take it. Thanks for 'asking'.
It is very, very difficult to "get killed" when risking 1% or less on 90% of wagers, if you have an edge it just wont happen. Even if you DONT have an edge, if you can only hit 48% lets say, you most likely STILL wont get killed. The money mgmnt will KEEP YOU IN THE GAME LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEARNING CURVE TO KICK IN!!
Kodiak,
have you been able to figure out what the return on 3000 wagers at -110 at a 54% win rate with 1% on each is?
also plug in 53% and 55% win rates, it helps to throw in a little variance. also 3500, 4000, 4500, 5000 wagers. no reason not to pursue foreign sports markets.
feel free to show me where I "got killed" in football.
I dont post much football b/c I go to games and leave early. It is also a big time hassle trying to get on to this site on the weekends during football, and all this before noon. I think you equate lack of posting to "getting killed". You also tend to remember the one-time 0-5 Thursday-Friday wagers, and forget the +500 underdog SU wins. NFL preseason was also very good to me, I wont mention yours. I made money in football this year, not as much as I would have liked or have in the past, but if this is a bad year I'll take it. Thanks for 'asking'.
It is very, very difficult to "get killed" when risking 1% or less on 90% of wagers, if you have an edge it just wont happen. Even if you DONT have an edge, if you can only hit 48% lets say, you most likely STILL wont get killed. The money mgmnt will KEEP YOU IN THE GAME LONG ENOUGH FOR THE LEARNING CURVE TO KICK IN!!
Kodiak,
have you been able to figure out what the return on 3000 wagers at -110 at a 54% win rate with 1% on each is?
also plug in 53% and 55% win rates, it helps to throw in a little variance. also 3500, 4000, 4500, 5000 wagers. no reason not to pursue foreign sports markets.
lol...The problem is you were not even close to hitting 54%, shit you weren't close to 45%...
atx.. you hit 32% of your cfb plays all documented and 43% of your nfl plays. In the nba you were not even close to 50% before you quit.. say what you may but your capping ability was easily the worst seen around these parts in a long time..
enjoy your gambling vacation... mr. 40 plays a night!
Things have really pick up around here with the departure of scammers like yourself and a few others.. When I say ATX was a scammer I say it because he claimed he never had a losing season.. HE THEN LOST HIS ASS IN CFB, NFL, NBA before RETIRING!
NUFF SAID!
atx.. you hit 32% of your cfb plays all documented and 43% of your nfl plays. In the nba you were not even close to 50% before you quit.. say what you may but your capping ability was easily the worst seen around these parts in a long time..
enjoy your gambling vacation... mr. 40 plays a night!
Things have really pick up around here with the departure of scammers like yourself and a few others.. When I say ATX was a scammer I say it because he claimed he never had a losing season.. HE THEN LOST HIS ASS IN CFB, NFL, NBA before RETIRING!
NUFF SAID!
Kodiak, can you answer the question?
if not then just say so and I'll plug in the values.
P.S. this isnt about me, it's about making money long term, and for those not happy with return in other markets. The sports market can be a fulfilling niche to the high risk end of a diversified portfolio.
I thought I only hit about 22% of NCAA football wagers and did a little better in the NFL winning 24.6% of those, thanks for giving me the benefit of the doubt.
if not then just say so and I'll plug in the values.
P.S. this isnt about me, it's about making money long term, and for those not happy with return in other markets. The sports market can be a fulfilling niche to the high risk end of a diversified portfolio.
I thought I only hit about 22% of NCAA football wagers and did a little better in the NFL winning 24.6% of those, thanks for giving me the benefit of the doubt.
we have some light prop betting going on IM
Kodiak can answer the simple statistical question: yes +1100
no -1500 is getting pounded
c'mon Kody help me out here, do it for the Maize and Blue Math Dept.
you may want to double check what you have me for NBA and NCAA baskets this year
is <rock> the same as <meat> ?
or are you stuck on four letter words ?
Kodiak can answer the simple statistical question: yes +1100
no -1500 is getting pounded
c'mon Kody help me out here, do it for the Maize and Blue Math Dept.
you may want to double check what you have me for NBA and NCAA baskets this year
is <rock> the same as <meat> ?
or are you stuck on four letter words ?
lol... ATX... I have seen many come and go but you take the cake as the single worst player/source I have ever saw..
OK 3,000 plays and IF, that is the key word IF, you hit 54% would mean you won 1,620 plays while losing 1,380.....
The problem is you hit around 40% so you have 1,200 WINNERS yet lost 1,800 of 3,000 picks... 3,000 picks... my god man!
Remember the time you posted a 1/2 time wager on the New Mexico vs. CSU football game? lmao... HE PLAYED 2.5% on Utah???? I suppose he meant NM since Utah and they are both red.....
The man is a LEGEND! lmao... He would post plays and not even know whom was playing... SICK!!!
[This message was edited by Kodiak7 on January 23, 2004 at 06:39 PM.]
OK 3,000 plays and IF, that is the key word IF, you hit 54% would mean you won 1,620 plays while losing 1,380.....
The problem is you hit around 40% so you have 1,200 WINNERS yet lost 1,800 of 3,000 picks... 3,000 picks... my god man!
Remember the time you posted a 1/2 time wager on the New Mexico vs. CSU football game? lmao... HE PLAYED 2.5% on Utah???? I suppose he meant NM since Utah and they are both red.....
The man is a LEGEND! lmao... He would post plays and not even know whom was playing... SICK!!!
[This message was edited by Kodiak7 on January 23, 2004 at 06:39 PM.]
This has been like watching a tennis match for the last few posts......
I have no idea about the dispute, but I'd like to help you out with the math Kodiak.
You are right of course, about the 1620 wins and 1380 losses.....
But at $1 per play you would win 1,620 and lose 1,380 plus 138 in vig so your net at $1 per play would be $102 and at $1,000 per play the net would be $102,000. This of course assumes 11/10 on all plays.
On the other hand, winning 40% would be MAJORLY disasterous. 1200 wins and 1800 losses. I shudder to calculate it !!! At $1 per play you win $1,200 while losing $1,800 plus $180 vig for a net loss of $780, which at $1,000 per play....well.....I'm afraid to actually type the number !!
Sorry for the interlude.....you guys can go back to flaming each other now
I have no idea about the dispute, but I'd like to help you out with the math Kodiak.
You are right of course, about the 1620 wins and 1380 losses.....
But at $1 per play you would win 1,620 and lose 1,380 plus 138 in vig so your net at $1 per play would be $102 and at $1,000 per play the net would be $102,000. This of course assumes 11/10 on all plays.
On the other hand, winning 40% would be MAJORLY disasterous. 1200 wins and 1800 losses. I shudder to calculate it !!! At $1 per play you win $1,200 while losing $1,800 plus $180 vig for a net loss of $780, which at $1,000 per play....well.....I'm afraid to actually type the number !!
Sorry for the interlude.....you guys can go back to flaming each other now
prove it
last NBA post prior was DEC 12
do a search, pull them up, they are nice and neat in a weekly thread
any amount you want that my win rate is greater than 41%
email me, you have it. you thought the name I use in that email, Dylan McDonald, is my real name and posted it with one of your many ghosts.
...and no your response is incorrect as to the simple question. do you know what rate of return is? hint: it is important when dealing with economies of scale.
last NBA post prior was DEC 12
do a search, pull them up, they are nice and neat in a weekly thread
any amount you want that my win rate is greater than 41%
email me, you have it. you thought the name I use in that email, Dylan McDonald, is my real name and posted it with one of your many ghosts.
...and no your response is incorrect as to the simple question. do you know what rate of return is? hint: it is important when dealing with economies of scale.
email me, you have it. you thought the name I use in that email, Dylan McDonald, is my real name and posted it with one of your many ghosts.
what the hell is that?? I posted dylan macdonald with a ghost???? you need some serious help mr. 40%... continue on...
Remember the time you posted a 1/2 time wager on the New Mexico vs. CSU football game? lmao... HE PLAYED 2.5% on Utah???? I suppose he meant NM since Utah and they are both red.....ATX, aka The fade King has returned!!! Looks like we're all in the $$$ again....
what the hell is that?? I posted dylan macdonald with a ghost???? you need some serious help mr. 40%... continue on...
Remember the time you posted a 1/2 time wager on the New Mexico vs. CSU football game? lmao... HE PLAYED 2.5% on Utah???? I suppose he meant NM since Utah and they are both red.....ATX, aka The fade King has returned!!! Looks like we're all in the $$$ again....
yes I remember that game.
it was a Thursday night game and the only 2nd half on the board--real confusing.
Someone asked if I meant the actual team playing 2 mins later and I came back and corrected it, the number was right. It was for maybe .5%, the 2.5% you come up with is absurd. I'm sure it's still there in a thread in September if you really feel the need to find solace.
Just cut the drama. If you want to point something out, then point it out and back it up, otherwise what's the need to lie? Just do your thing and I'll do mine, and just ignore the three letters ATX. No need to get all bent out of shape when someone simply mentions my name, the forum is sick having to wade through boring spats.
King of Squares
Jackass of Sports
ATX
it was a Thursday night game and the only 2nd half on the board--real confusing.
Someone asked if I meant the actual team playing 2 mins later and I came back and corrected it, the number was right. It was for maybe .5%, the 2.5% you come up with is absurd. I'm sure it's still there in a thread in September if you really feel the need to find solace.
Just cut the drama. If you want to point something out, then point it out and back it up, otherwise what's the need to lie? Just do your thing and I'll do mine, and just ignore the three letters ATX. No need to get all bent out of shape when someone simply mentions my name, the forum is sick having to wade through boring spats.
King of Squares
Jackass of Sports
ATX
