Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

Last Saturday's (2009.10.17) results:

Atlanta Thrashers @ Buffalo Sabres: Atlanta Thrashers ML +150 (2,50) Bookmaker (2-4: WIN)
San Jose Sharks @ New York Islanders: Over 5.5 -115 (1,87) 5Dimes (1-4: LOSS)
Nashville Predators @ Washington Capitals: Washington Capitals PL -1,5 +130 (2,30) Bookmaker (3-2: LOSS)
Colorado Avalanche @ Detroit Red Wings: Colorado Avalanche ML +170 (2,70) The Greek (3-4: WIN)
New York Rangers @ Toronto Maple Leafs: Toronto Maple Leafs ML +130 (2,30) Bookmaker (1-4: LOSS)
Dallas Stars @ Chicago Blackhawks: Over 5.5 -125 (1,80) 5Dimes (3-4: WIN)
Boston Bruins @ Phoenix Coyotes: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +135 (2,35) Bookmaker (4-1: LOSS)
St. Louis Blues @ Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) +115 (2,15) Bookmaker (0-5: LOSS)

2009.10.17 finished with a 3-5 and -1 unit lost/8 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 9-12 (+0,62 units won/21 units risked)

 

[TommyGold]

St. Louis Blues @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Let‘s go to the West Coast... Now let‘s go to the East Coast... And this is the recent life of the St. Louis Blues team this week. It can be hard especially when the second team is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Even when the Blues are good on the road, losing only one game on OT in 3 games. But this year, the Penguins improved their defense. With that good defense, they are showing that they only need a few shoots to score, winning easily the majority of the games, sitting on a 7-1 record.

I know that St. Louis comes from a great win over the Anaheim Ducks, however they had made a big travel prior to this game. The Penguins had lost one game at home, against the Phoenix Coyotes, their only loss at the moment, and they can‘t compromise another game at home so soon. I see that the edge on this game is on the Penguins. Their roster... well, advantage number one. They are better defenders than the Blues, advantage number two. They can score as much as the Blues, but only need half of the shoots, advantage number three.

The Puck Line is a good bet, the accuracy of the Penguins centers, is one of the best on the NHL. If they are winning only by one goal difference at the end, Pittsburgh is a reliable team to score another goal on an empty net situation. So, even if they only scored one more goal than the Blues during 58 minutes, we can expect another goal at the last minutes to make our PL a winner.



Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +180 (2.80) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames

A week after, Columbus Blue Jackets will face Calgary Flames again. In the first match up of the season Columbus won 2-1 at home. Now, it's their turn to make the trip. Fortunately they had 3 days off, so they could have some rest and make a quiet travel. It's important to them to continue this good start of the season, with only 1 loss in 6 games, against the Sharks in San Jose.

The Flames had 4 days rest, which can be too much time to be out in a season start and that can be treacherous. They had a good beginning with 4 wins in a row, but then they went 1-3. Something appears to be wrong: in 8 games, they won 5, all against canadian opponents. They didn't won one game yet at USA floor.

We will have a match up between two teams, where the advantage in the offensive game or the defensive game is with Columbus, as they can defend much better than Calgary. Moreover, Columbus are playing a intelligent hockey, just taking 6 goals at Sharks, but Shark are Stanley Cup contenders and they have a great first line. In the rest of the games, they usually had allowed only one goal per game.

A week ago Calgary scored first, but they could hold it, and lost 2-1, a result that expressed the truth in the field. Actually, Calgary had some problems this year to hold the lead in the games when they are winning. Who can't remember that game in Chicago (5-1 in the first period, 5-5 in the end of regulation time, loss in OT)? So, i will take here the Blue Jackets, they are smarter in the field, they know this Calgary team and they have the potential to show to this mind weak team, how to win a game.


Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +165 (2,65) Bookmaker, CLB 3Way (1X2) +220 (3,20) bwin

 

[TommyGold]

2009.10.19 results:

San Jose Sharks @ New York Rangers: New York Rangers 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) Bookmaker (3-7: LOSS)
Los Angeles Kings @ Dallas Stars: Dallas Stars PL -1.5 +212 (3.12) 5Dimes, DAL PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek (1-4: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers: Edmonton Oilers 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) Bookmaker (2-1 WIN)

2009.10.19 finished with a 1-2 and -0,65 units lost/3 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 10-14 (-0,03 units won/24 units risked)

 

[TommyGold]

Nashville Predators @ Boston Bruins

Predators and Bruins are two teams that we expected more than they had show so far. Nashville has came from a hard game and lost in SO against the Capitals in Washington. Can this game mark the turn?

The Bruins, with Lucic and Savard out, comes from a loss in Phoenix against the Coyotes. "Let's explore that spot! Bruins with 2 men out, Predators starting to improve!". I think that this can be so wrong, but so wrong, that i will bet against this thought. The Bruins are the better team. They are returning home, and they don't have a choice... They have to start to please their supporters. If the team can't play well today, against one team that has been lousy in this start of the season, Bruins will lose to much credit in their fans eyes.

The experience and depth in Bruins roster can make some difference today. I don't have time today to explain in detail my opinion, I'm with a bloody headache now that I've to take some time off right now, however, I expect a scenario similar to Dallas vs Nashville game, where Nashville lost 6-0.

Pick: Boston Bruins PL -1.5 +150 (2.50) 5Dimes, BOS PL -1.5 +145 (2.45) The Greek


I also like Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago Blackhawks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1,95) Bookmaker & Over 5.5 -120 (1.83) 5 Dimes, Centrebet, Pinnacle, but I need to take a rest now, so please excuse me for not delivering a justification right now.


Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +165 (2,65) Bookmaker, CLB 3Way (1X2) +220 (3,20) bwin

St. Louis Blues @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +180 (2.80) Bookmaker, 5Dimes +175 (2,75)

 

[globulous]

.... but I need to take a rest now, so please excuse me for not delivering a justification right now.

it takes its toll day after day doesn't it?!
it's especially deflating when you can come up with an equally compelling writeup for the other side!.. sometimes you wonder, 'whats the point?'

gl with your plays!

 

[TommyGold]

2009.10.19 results:

St. Louis Blues @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +180 (2.80) Bookmaker, 5Dimes +175 (2,75) (5-1: WIN)
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Calgary Flames: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +165 (2,65) Bookmaker, CLB 3Way (1X2) +220 (3,20) bwin (6-3: LOSS)

2009.10.20 finished with a 1-1 and +0,8 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 11-15 (+0,77 units won/26 units risked)

 

[TommyGold]

Buffalo Sabres @ Florida Panthers

I know that the Sabres had made a great start, scoring 6 goals against Detroit, and then they defeated the Islanders. This happened after they appeared to struggle in their offensive game. So, everybody thinked: they are a good team. Line makers even favour them. But i can't understand it. Why is Buffalo favourite? Sabres just played one game on the road. Against Nashville, winning by 1-0. That prove anything? NO! Buffalo still has to show that they know how to play on the road. I admit that Sabres is not a team that I enjoy. It's true that they sometimes play well. But as soon as they do it, they play bad as well.

Florida, won their first game in the season, but then they struggled hard. However, in the last games they tried to bounce back. And in the last game, they won 4-2 at home against the Philadelphia Flyers, a hot team. So, on this game i will take Florida and I will risk a 3WAY line. Florida can do pretty things at home, specially against teams like Sabres, teams that are not reliable on their performances. I think that the bookies are wrong, remembering too much 2 straight games where they scored 6 goals. Are they accounting for public perception? Maybe. The truth is that the Sabres are not a good offensive team and in the end of the season the stats will show it. Florida is getting their confidence back and their game is showing up in the last few games.

Playing at home against a team that only visited a "to much easy prey" (another reason to take them as favourites?), if I have to see advantage somewhere, it will be with the home team. After all, if they won 4-2 against Philadelphia, why not an easy win over Sabres, which are coming from a defeat at home?


Pick: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker, FLA 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) bet365, Centrebet

FLA ML +105 (2.05) is available on Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Centrebet, bet365 or even bwin have FLA 3Way (1X2) +160 (2,60), not +140 (2,40).

 

[TommyGold]

Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild

Colorado Avalanche after two home wins went on a successful road trip (4-2, 1-1 on SO) that ends now on Xcel Energy Center, were they face the Minnesota Wild, which had a road trip of their won, but not as successful as the one of the Avalanche team, because they lost SU all their last 5 matchs, showing a dismal performance on the defense and a weak offense (an average 2.00 goals scored per game).

Minnesota has only won 1 game, at home against the Anaheim Ducks, by 4-3 on SO, and we don't know much more about them on their home field, because they spent the entire season so far on the road, ending with a 0-6 record. What we've seen so far of the Wild doesn't inspire much trust, we have a team that has the pressure to win, but that will also play on a known and confy environment.

On the other hand, we have a Colorado team that will finish their road trip, having won their last 4 games, with their last win against the Detroit Red Wings on SO giving us some signs that they can be trusted, if they have tonight the same commitment displayed on their last games.

So, I'm going to take my chances and support the road dog on their last game, believing that they have the ability to give 60 minutes of effort, since they have shown having much better qualities so far than this Wild team and for this game I give both teams 50-50, as we can't deny the value of Wild's roster on the other side. Take the Colorado Avalanche ML.

Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML +120 (2.20) 5Dimes, The Greek

 

[TommyGold]

Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago will host the Canucks today. For me, it will be the best game of the day. This is game that promises goals and good offensive plays for both teams. However, i will go against the Canucks again. 4 losses in 4 games on the road, is not a record to give confidence. And with Salo and D. Sedin missing, it can be a hard game for Vancouver. However, I believe that the Canucks can fight back on this game and this thinking makes me believe that a PL is to risky for this game, but the Over is also a valuable play. Vancouver is a team with good offensive moves. They try a lot to score, shooting at least 33 shots per game. They have proved this year that they can score when they want, and if defense gives a little bit more space, they will not forgive.

Chicago is a team that I enjoy to see. I think they have a great first line and I confess that I enjoy they way to play: their games are always frenetic. A week ago, they won a game in OT after being losing 5-1 in the first period. They like to fight their games, specially at home. They enjoy to give a tremendous show to their supporters, make every fan watch every second of the games without moving out from their seats.

So, with two very offensive teams, we will have an easy over in my opinion. After all, both goaltenders are not making a good season so far. With Salo and D. Sedin out, without winning any game yet on the road and visiting a team that has a fantastic first line, and that scores a lot, I guess they will not keep the scoreboard even for long time.

The Blackhawks have clearly the edge for this game, so I will take them on 3Way. Don't forget that Chicago usually doesn't crush their opponents at home, they score a lot, but they conceed a lot of goals too. They are "pro-show" right now and there is no value to take them on PL, as they are no reliable for building up a nice lead on the game.


Picks: Chicago Blackhawks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1,95) Bookmaker & Over 5.5 -120 (1.83) 5 Dimes, Centrebet, Pinnacle

 

[TommyGold]

Time to bounce back:

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens

Today Montreal will try to match 2 straight wins, just the way they opened the season. This game is important as they have to make supporters forget all the 5 losses before last game. Montreal won finally at home on their last game, a 2-1 win in OT. This team is having hard times, because they make an investment for this year and the team is not answering it. They need victories and last one was very important. Today, they have to show everybody that they finally are on the right track.

The Islanders played yesterday at home and have won their first game, after OT. It's true that they are not a bad team, they are young, with talented players. They finally got the win they were seeking since the start of the season. But, I think we can explore a spot in this game. Islanders are talented, are coming from their first victory. Some people can see value here, against Montreal, a team that are unrecognized so far.

However, I think that the experience of Montreal can be a big factor, against a young team. The fact that the Islanders played yesterday, traveling and playing today, isn a important on for us. The only game they played B2B they lost 4-1, and those 2 games were at home. This time it will be to hard for them and playing in Montreal is not easy.

On the other hand, Montreal will face this match very carefully, they will try to control this game by making it slow. In 3 games at home there were 3 easy unders, showing how this team is playing at home. They are not confident yet to make a blowout win and first of all, they have to make sure that they will win this game, with no hard effort.


Pick: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) -105 (1,95) Bookmaker, Centrebet & Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

 

[TommyGold]

Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers will host today the Bruins and a funny thing that I remember, is that this seems to be like their last game, but reversing the "momentum" of the teams. Boston is playing well, Philadelphia is capable of more than they are doing, strugling in too many games.

Tonight Philadelphia, with almost 1 week rest, will face the Bruins to try to return to the victories. They won 3 games in a row and then thy lost 3 straight games. So, this "pause" could make the same efect on the Flyers team. This will be like a new beggining of the season, as Philadelphia this year started well with wins and failed on the last 3 games, however they played well at all those games.

Boston is unrecognized this year. They can't win 2 straight games. They only played 2 games on the road, winning in Dallas and losing in Phoenix. Well I'll take on the fact that they won at Dallas, because the Stars are not a reliable team, they had played poorly so far. They lost against the Coyotes, which is a bad team, but consistent on their efforts in most of the games, unlike Dallas.

Today Emery will be the goaltender against Rask. Philadelphia has a powerful first line and Rask can be a weak spot in a defense that is allowing more than 3 goals per game. On the other hand, Savard will miss the game and as we saw yesterday Boston strugles on their offensive game without him.

I expect a renewed team in Philadelphia. With time to prepare this game, they will try to "restart" their performance on this league with a win. Boston is caught too many times trailing behind their opponents and I can't see the Flyers to waste those opportunities. I only can see an edge on the Flyers, they have a good roster, they are playing well, and they love these games. Against a team with low morale and confidence, with their weakest goaltender, best scorer out and without advantage on PP situations, I just see a scenario where the Flyers will dominate easily this game.

The Philadelphia Flyers (1X2) -110 (1.91) Bookmaker or the Philadelphia Flyers -0.5 -110 (1.91) Diamond (DSI) have odds with little or no value for me to play, so I'll go with the puck line.


Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +185 (2.85) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers

When the Capitals faced strong teams in offense, they didn't let their credits in other hands. They scored as much as they can and a team that have Ovechkin, is not hard to do it. The truth is, I think that Washington enjoy to play against teams that push them, teams that try to score more than them.

Atlanta is one of the most effective teams when we talk about scoring goals. They can score one goal in almost 6 shots. Both teams arrive to this game with 3.5 goals per game. A strong mark. However, Atlanta lowered their stats due to the fact that they spent almost 2 weeks on the road, decreasing their power. In the first 2 games, the only ones at home, they scored 6 goals in both games.

So, I expect here a game where Atlanta will try to start pressing the Capitals, but this team can bounce away that pressure and keep on the scoreboard, even if Atlanta score. Defensively, Atlanta is better than Washington, but the Capitals can easily find spots in Atlanta defense. I confess that this play would be much better if Semin plays, but even without him Washington can find many spaces. It will be a clash between Kovalchuk and Ovechkin to see which one will score the most goals and the public will probably win with that clash, because it promises a lot of goals... Both goaltenders will be just spectators in the game, both teams seem to wish to give to the audience a good show, as they put their worst goaltender in the lineup...


Pick: Over 6.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

 

[TommyGold]

San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning

A few days ago, i was sceptic about the Sharks, betting against them when they played against the Capitals in Washington. I was right, but since then they played 2 games and crushed both opponentws, including a 7-3 at New York against the Rangers, one of the hottest teams this season. So, when they face tonight Tampa in the middle of their road trip, they will try to keep the recent "momentum" they acquired. They will give everything they got tonight, as they will face after this game teams better than Tampa.

Tampa is a team well known by their adversaries, because, and I hope no one crucifies me, they are only known by their first live... St Louis, Lecavallier and so on, makes this team reasonable, as they are the players that makes this team one that win games some times. They only won 2 games this year, playing 3 at home. They won because of their offensive, that has been stronger than the other teams, Hurricanes and Panthers. They lost at home against Devils, a team that likes to play forward, and have also good players at front. When they played out, they showed how week they are in defense, taking 7 goals in Ottawa. So, let's face the reality. Tampa will do pretty things specially at home this year, they have few talented players in first line to do so. However, can they do it against Sharks? I can´t believe it.

San Jose is a strong team. No one doubts it. They are strong in defense and at offensive game as well. They have talented players in every lines of their roster, ensuring they will go to every games trying to win. So, this game will only have 3 processes: Tampa attacking, San Jose defending, and then, San Jose attacking... and no one defending. I can't see much more in this game, the Sharks are finally playing their game, with much morale due to a blowout win at MSG, and they will have the edge on the goaltender position, which will probably be Smith for Tampa, a goaltender that is allowing more than 4 goals per game.


Pick: San Jose Sharks 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

2009.10.21 results:

Nashville Predators @ Boston Bruins: Boston Bruins PL -1.5 +150 (2.50) 5Dimes (3-2: LOSS)
Buffalo Sabres @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker (2-5: LOSS)
Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild: Colorado Avalanche ML +120 (2.20) 5Dimes, The Greek (3-2: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago Blackhawks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1,95) Bookmaker (2-3: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks: Over 5.5 -120 (1.83) 5 Dimes, Centrebet, Pinnacle (2-3: LOSS)

2009.10.21 finished with a 0-5 and -5 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 11-20 (-4,23 units lost/31 units risked)

 

[TommyGold]

Rough patch we're riding here.

2009.10.22 results:

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker, Centrebet (5-1: WIN)
New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (5-1: LOSS)
Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +185 (2.85) Bookmaker (4-3: LOSS)
Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers: Over 6.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (4-5: WIN)
San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning: San Jose Sharks 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (5-2: LOSS)

2009.10.22 finished with a 2-3 and -1.14 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 13-23 (-5.37 units lost/36 units risked)

 

[TommyGold]

Carolina Hurricanes @ Colorado Avalanche

Colorado will host Carolina with the Hurricanes being a road underdog team. Can Peter Budaj discredit the work that Avalanche has done so far? It will be first game this season for Budaj in Avalanche's nets. It's true that Anderson has been one of the keys for their wins. But Avalanche will have a B2B game at home and Anderson will be spared. But, Budaj is not bad at all. He had a bad season last year, but in the previous seasons, he had done a good work. Now, why can't he be reliable? He will make his first game, after 9 games, with a team that has a high morale and I see it as something contagious for all the players in the roster.

Colorado started the season with 2 home games, winning easily Sharks and Canucks. Then went to a 7 games road trip, losing the first 2 games and the last one, 2 of them in SO. The other game was lost by one goal only. So, this team is playing very well, fighting all the games with all they've got. They are making the difference in the field in PP situations too.

Carolina are struggling this year. I's a team that I enjoy, however they still have a hard rail to go. With only a easy win at home, over Panthers, this team had lost the 4 games they done as visitors. So for this game, there will be to many edges for Colorado to let this one pass. They are playing much better on offense and defense. They got confidence and the Hurricanes still have to find their game. They are few "degrees" below Colorado right now and Budaj will not be the key for Hurricanes, as I expect him to play well as the rest of the team.


Pick: Colorado Avalanche 3Way (1X2) +145 (2.45) Diamond (DSI), Centrebet, bet365

 

[TommyGold]

Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh is in a 6 wins streak. Why end it today? I don't have much to explain this pick. The Penguins are playing well and their only absence will be Fleury. However, his impact on the team is not so strong, which give us few or no doubts about the Penguins' performance. Pittsburgh is well known by their offensive line. They can easily score and they shot a lot.

Florida is not a reliable team. After the horrible display by Clemmenson last game, allowing 2 goals in the first minutes at home, Vokoun had troubles too, and the Panthers ended losing 5-2. They are playing badly in their defense, allowing almost 4 goals per game. And even their offensive has moods.

So for me, this is a simple game to analyse. A team that has big troubles defending will face the Penguins and the bookies give us a PL over the pair? We can't let this one pass! The differences between both rosters, the way they are playing, and the momentum of both team are astounding!


Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) 5Dimes, PIT PL -1.5 +155 (2.55) The Greek

 

[TommyGold]

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators

This season Boston are trying to show us how to bet on them. It's a funny trend, because in a 9 games, they cannot make 2 wins or losses in a row. So, I suspect that there will be many bettors today betting on Boston just because they lost the last one. However, in this world of probabilities they might be wrong. They think that will be much more probable a win for the Bruins because of the trend. However, it's a false thinking. The probabilities are in favor to end this trend and is like a linear equation. If they delay to make 2 in a row the bigger will the probabilities for to that happen. So, after 9 games I think that the probability, only statistically speaking, will be in favou of the Senators, and for those that only bet on sports due to probabilities, these will be bigger today.

In their last game, only 2 days ago in Philadelphia, I saw Boston playing a Little bit. They are playing horrible, they are not anymore that cohesive team that we knew from last year. Boston is losing their games against teams that got the momentum and are playing well. They have individual values, but they are not producing the expected hockey. Savard, the top scorer, will be out and he is one of the few players in the team still showing how to play the game.

Ottawa, despite the last loss against a team that is rising from the dead, is playing well. The Senators are not a team that is afraid of "big team names" and they fight 'till the end on every game. They are also a good team, with talented players that make the difference, specially Alfredsson, who can lead them.

Thus, I think this could be a good clash between a team that is playing poorly, allowing the adversaries to play too much, and a team that is playing well. With the Senators players making the difference instead of the Bruins players, we have an edge on defense and offense on our side, and Ottawa should win this one. However, I prefer to play this on the ML, because I expect some improvement from the Bruins from their last game, however it will not be enough to give them the win. Overall, this is the line offering the best value for me.


Pick: Ottawa Senators ML -124 (1.81) 5Dimes, OTT ML -120 (1.83) SBOBET