Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams

Arizona has won all their road games and the Rams haven't won any game at home and I think that thinks will stay pretty much the same. Cardinals are doing great in their offense, QB Kurt Warner is improving his game and has great option to pass the ball (WR Larry Fitzgeral, WR Anquan Boldin or WR Steve Breaston) which makes the Cards passing game very dangerous for the opponents' defenses.

Arizona's running game has improved too on the last weeks, mainly after RB Beanie Wells has taken care of business, which was undoubtedly the Cards weakest part in their offense. Even RB Tim Hightower is also improving his performances and he is also used as a wide receiver for the Kurt Warner's short passes, like a tight end.

Cardinals defense is very good against the rushing game and that is good for us, because the Rams can only carry the ball as their offensive weapon and I'm sure that the Cards D will be enough to stop the Saint Louis ground offense. Arizona's passing defense has ups and downs, sometimes they defend very well and do a lot of pressure, doing good man coverage, sometimes they look like an empty highway. Knowing that the Rams passing game is one of the weakest of the league, the Cardinal defense has everything to give us a good show on this match.

Saint Louis 23 points season high last week could have been good news, but the lowest Cards scoring game was only... 24 points. QB Marc Bulger is having a lot of troubles because his offensive weapons aren't great players (WR Donnie Avery, WR Keenan Burton e TE Randy McMichael) and aren't very used either and when they play, they are unable to do big plays for the team. The Rams rely on their strong suit, the rushing game, thanks to RB Steven Jackson, a great rusher with a 4.8 yards per carry average.

It is true that the Rams has some important injuries on their secondary and that is translated in bad performances against the opponents' passing game and against a great air offense, they will be on the downside. Saint Louis run defense is not good either and they way the Cards had improved on their ground offense, I expect the Rams to have a lot of troubles on their defense.

The Cards are playing well on the road and are scoring a lot of points and I believe that the Rams will continue their low scores performance, the mismatches between both teams makes me think that Arizona has everything to win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals -9 +100 (2.00) The Greek

 

[TommyGold]

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

This Sunday Night Football game is extremely important for both teams and for their postseason ambitions, so there is pressure for both teams and errors can happen on both sides.

With RB Westbrook out and things appear to be very ugly for him, I'm afraid if his injury will even ruin and end his NFL career, things will not be good for the Eagles running game and we cannot forget that the Bears play at home and they are a good home team and playing in Chicago is always a difficult thing to do. Philadelphia is not playing good on the road and they showed a lot of problems when they play as a visitor, besides the Bears also have some weapons on their offense and their ground offense can make things very difficult for the Eagles defense.

Overall speaking of both teams, the Eagles have the most complete package than the Bears and I think this Philadelphia -3 line is acceptable but when you are on the road and you aren't doing great as a visitor and have to face a good home team and for me, I can't have a good read on both sides and I wouldn't be surprised if this game is decided by a Field Goal and for me this line has no value and I'm going to stay away from this game.

 

[TommyGold]

Finished yesterday with a 1-3 on SIDES... Aside from the Chargers, all the other favs allowed backdoor covers, specially the Bengals who lost on OT... :|

 

[TommyGold]

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (MNF)

Tennessee after the Bye Week on Week 7 has nicely improved, specially after QB Vince Young returned to the starting lineup, scoring 3 straight wins, but for me the main reason for such improvement is due to a better performance of the Titans D, both against the opponent's rushing game and on their secondary, but truth be told, they haven't faced yet a strong offensive team like the Texans and I think that tonight they will have huge problems in order to stop Houston's passing game.

Titans offense has improved with Vince Young doing safe passes and he hasn't throw many interceptions. Young counts with WR Nate Johnson, WR Kenny Brit, WR Justin Cage and TE Bo Scaife to pass the ball, they aren't bad players on one side, but are a little bit far from the best in their roles and positions on the league. This troop will face a good passing defense, but what has given some results to the Texans O has been the running game with rusher RB Chris Johnson completely dominating on his last 3 games (495 yards) with an impressive 6.6 YPC and 6 scored touchdowns, and I believe he will again do a good game Tennessee now rely too much on him and will use it a lot on this game, since the Houston defense is much more stronger against the passing game than against the ground offense.

I rate Houston as a good team, they have been playing well and their last losses were against good teams and against the Colts they manage to give a good reply thanks to their good offense. QB Matt Schaub is doing great season and counts with WR Andre Johnson, WR Kevin Walter and TE Joel Dreesen. Schaub has good weapons on his offense, specially Andre Johnson who is for me one of the best wide receivers of the NFL.

Texans ground offense is average, their rushers are RB Steve Slaton (3.1 YPC) and RB Ryan Moats (4.1 YPC) per carry can give some diversity to Houston offense and both are always able to win some yards, but this kind of game is seldom used by the Texans, because they prefer to use the passing game, which is quite obvious thanks to their good array of wide receivers and a nice quarterback.

On the defense, Houston has some troubles to stop the opponents' ground offense and surely Chris Johnson will present some problems to this Texans D, but every defense unit who faces Johnson as always troubles ahead. Since the Titans are using much more the running game, the Houston should focus much more on this kind of game, because their secondary has been playing well and are doing a good men coverage.

I see value on the Houston -4 line since I don't believe that Tennessee will be able to stop the Texans passing game which is really quite good, has a quarterback in great shape with great tools for his job on the wide receivers' role. Houston is also very motivated and after the Bye Week they really want to give a good show and even with Chris Johnson on the other side, the Texans will score a lot of points and win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Houston Texans -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

You can already see HOU -3.5 on 5Dimes, maybe you can get a better price on some shops before kick-off.

 

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 11 results recap:

78 - Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants: New York Giants -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-31 OT: LOSS)
79 - Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams: Arizona Cardinals -9 +100 (2.00) The Greek (13-21: LOSS)
80 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders: Cincinnati Bengals -9 -105 (1.95) The Greek (20-17: LOSS)
81 - San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos: San Diego Chargers -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-32: WIN)
82 - Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (MNF): Houston Texans -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-20: LOSS)

SIDES: 1-4 (Week 11: -3.09 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 42-40 (-1.85 units won/82 units risked);
SIDES: 40-33 (+3.29 units won/73 units risked);
TOTALS 2-7 (-5.14 units lost/9 units risked).

Considering the -11.22 units lost last week on college hoops, plus -6.4 units lost on NHL in the same period, it was only fitting that the same should happen on NFL as well...

Pointspreads are now down to 54.80% and the prospect of a losing season begins to loom if the current course is not carefully changed...

 

[TommyGold]

Good Luck

Many thanks, Hache Man!

 

[TommyGold]

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions:

Detroit is miserable on the defense, but on the offense has good players and now with the return of WR Johnson, the team has shown a good passing game and they even turned the tables on the weak Browns, truth be told. I will not follow Green Bay on this game because they're playing very bad on the road and despite the mismatches on both teams, I can't get a proper read on their motivation, because this game can go to both sides, depending of well the Packers execute on offense and defense or how commited will be the Lions to give their best in this game.

Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys:

What can I say about the Raiders??? One of the hardest teams to predict, they can do a very good game like last week and on the next game, they can screw up big time and look like THE WORST TEAM I EVER SAW PLAYING ON THE NFL and I've seen a lot of games in this century. On the other side, we are asking to lay too many points on a team that only scored 7 points!!! Depending on how motivated the Raiders are, one can stay out of this game or play against Oakland, because these Cowboys with the proper mindset, can cover this pointspread and rout the Raiders.

New York Giants @ Denver Broncos:

Big game for both teams, the Giants are still far from their good form, their secondary has been pitiful and they will play in a very complicated field and without beeing sure if Kyle Orton will be out or not for this game, it will be very complicated to have a good read on this game. Even if he plays, it is not easy to take sides on this match. Both teams need to win to keep their postseason hopes alive, so we can expect a great effort from both teams, however, how badly the recent losing streak is affecting the Broncos' players mindset? The Giants have a bad secondary and the Broncos offense is very bad with Chris Simms leading the team...

 

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 12, I've 5 point spreads and 1 total to risk:

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills: Miami Dolphins -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers: Kansas City Chiefs +14 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans: Arizona Cardinals +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints: New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes & Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

 

[TommyGold]

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts as we know, has not lost a game this season and I'm not seeing them to lose this match. Their offense has one of the best Quarterbacks of all time, QB Peyton Manning, who is doing a tremendous season and he has been the main reason why the Colts are still unbeaten. Peyton Manning can count with WR Pierre Garcon and WR Reggie Wayne as his preferred wide receivers, both are quite good and both have great quality. Manning will also rely on his main weapon, one that he uses much more often than the others, TE Dallas Clark, who is doing an excellent season this year.

We already know how pretty good the Colts' passing game is and their rushing game is not bad at all either. Rusher RB Joseph Addai after a season where he his performances weren't the best, has improved and he is playing quite well this year, not at the same level that he used to a few years ago, but at least, he's somewhat back. To help the Colts on the ground offense, we have RB Donald Brown as Addai's backup and he always manage to gain some good yards every time he carries the ball.

Defensively I have to highlight a couple of things. It is true that the Colts' secondary has suffered a lot lately in the passing game, but we should not forget that when their opponents get into the Colts' red zone, Indy defense can in most cases force their opposition to settle with only the field goal attempt, as we saw last week against the Ravens, where the Indianapolis defense forced the Ravens to go for 5 Fields Goals instead of scoring several touchdowns...

The absence of TE Owen Daniels on Texans side, I believe that the Colts' defense will again do a good work, specially when near their own end zone. Their rushing defense is not bad at all, they can stop the opponent's rush and for this game the Colts D will not need much more effort to stop the Texans' rushing game, which is quite average, so Indy should be able to get the job done.

Houston Texans has lost the last 2 games because their kicker missed important field goals which should cost them this season and now I don't believe that they can even get a wild card. Their offense has a good quarterback, Matt Schaub is doing an excellent season so far and thanks to the weapons he has, such as WR Andre Johnson, one of the best in the league, or WR Kevin Walter, who is a lesser option for QB Matt Schaub to throw his passes. Since TE Owen Daniels was injured, the Texans offense playbook has been virtually reduced to Schaub to Johnson, which makes this offense very predictable.

Their rushing game is not the best nor the worst this season, Houston relies on RB Steve Slaton and backup RB Ryan Moats and these two will have the difficult task of penetrating the Colts' defense and I think that the Texans will not have much success when using the running game.

Defensively, Houston has many difficulties in stopping the opponents' rushing game and certainly Joseph Addai will give them some headaches down the field. Texans' passing defense is average but knowing that they will face Peyton Manning, who can penetrate any defense without great difficulty, we can be assured that they should be dominated by the Colts' passing game on this game, which will make things very hard for Houston to win this game.

Indianapolis has more arguments than the Texans for the win and I sincerely believe that the Colts will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

 

[TommyGold]

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins has for me the best Wildcat formation of all the NFL and that is what makes the Dolphins as a very complicated team to defend against. QB Chad Henne who I personally like a lot, leads a Dolphins offense which is very fond of the running game as we all know, but this guy can throw deep balls down the field with great quality, which is quite good for the Dolphins, because their opponents always have to be careful with their defensive schemes and the Wildcat formation gives Miami a little a bit more freedom to choose their plays, so the opposing team does not only has to worry in defending against the running game brought by the Fins' Wildcat, but they have to be very carefully to not expose too much against the rain of Henne's deep balls.

Chad Henne has two decent players to send his deep balls, they are WR Davone Brees and WR Greg Camarillo, but the real power of this team is undoubtedly its rushing game, with RB Ricky Williams, who is completely on fire and has been a major force in the Miami offense and I really believe that against the Bills, Williams will again wreak havoc against Buffalo's defense.

Miami D has some difficulties against the opponent's passing game, but on this game they will not face a powerful team in that subject, I think the Bills will prefer to use a lot more their rushing game, like the Dolphins do, ie, the meeting will be held on the ground and not much by the air, and therefore I only see an edge to the Dolphins' side.

Bills offense has QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who I honestly do not like, he fails too much the simple passes and that makes the Buffalo's offense quite weak, despite having a great WR Terrell Owens doing a nice season, but it also looks like that he signed with the Bills to earn a little extra cash than to give his best effort on the field, because TO is one of those players that causes locker problems when things do not go the way he likes and that is what has happened again this season.

The Bills' passing game is very soft, so the team has to rely a lot more on his rushing game, with RB Fred Jackson and RB Marshawn Lynch has the main carriers, who are not bad at all and lately they have been crucial for the Buffalo team to get their drives going down the field, and they are often used to get near the opposition's end zone.

The Buffalo's defense is average, they are able to stop more or less the opposition's passing game and running game, but the big problem for them this week is the kind of game the Dolphins practice, with their Wild Cat causing enormous problems to any defense and I think that the Bills D will have a lot of work, mainly to stop Ricky Williams, who is in great shape.

For me in general, Miami has the best team and more options to work with and enough offensive variations to complicate things to the Bills' defense than the opposite, so I think the Dolphins will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Miami Dolphins -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek

 

[TommyGold]

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams

QB Matt Hasselbeck is a great quarterback that has great weapons in his offense, like WR Nate Burleson and WR TJ Houshmandzadeh. The two are very good wide receivers to whom Matt Hasselback can throw deep the ball like he did in Week 1. We can say that the Seahawks offense is practically all based on the passing game. For the rushing game Seattle has rusher RB Julius Jones, he is not a bad player, but is not widely used during the game, for me, he would be one good choice for the Seahawks offense to use a lot more their running game against Saint Louis, because the Rams rushing defense is very weak.

The Seahawks defense is having a lot of troubles in their secondary but I think that on this game they can delete a bit of their secondary's bad image, because they will face the worst team in the passing game, that is, the Rams passing game to me is completely null and the Seahawks despite their difficulties in against this kind of offense, can do a good job on this subject. The Seattle's rushing defense happens to be better than their passing defense and for this game that comes in handy because the other side will show a good running game and will have RB Steve Jackson to showcase on this game.

The Rams rely on their offense with QB Marc Bulger, I will not say he is a bad quarterback because it's a bit unfair for him to give him a bad rating, because the weapons he has are not the best. WR Doonie Avery and WR Keenan Burton together are managing to be in the bottom place nad making the Rams the worst team in the NFL, regarding the passing game. Their rushing game on the other hand is a good one and they even have one of the best rushers in the league, RB Steven Jackson. He will surely be the first option for Rams offense on this game, because is with the running game that the team can still do something good.

Saint Louis defense is not bad at all, despite suffering too many points, they do have a good secondary which can do a good man coverage and defend well against the passing game, otherwise they will be doomed in this game like they were in week 1. Since their rushing defense is quite weak, only if the Seahawks are too stubborn to only use their passing game will the Rams avoid being pierced by the Seattle ground offense.

Overall, the Seahawks have the best team, especially in the offense and I think this will be enough for Seattle to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

 

[TommyGold]

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

The Kansas City Chiefs surprisingly won against the champions Pittsburgh Steelers, but the truth is that the Chiefs have greatly improved their game throughout the season. The team has an excellent quarterback, QB Matt Cassel, who just did not do nothing better at the beginning of the season because he had no good players to pass the ball, but with the signing of WR Chris Chambers (ex-Chargers), Cassel has an excellent choice to throw the ball and that's what happened against the Steelers, with the Chiefs being much more dangerous offensively due to this duo.

Chiefs' rushing game has rusher RB Larry Johnson who is not much of a player but you can be sure that the main offensive option for Kansas City is indeed their passing game and not the running game.

On the defense, the team sometimes has problems in their secondary and certainly that this game will bring a lot of troubles for Kansas defense, because the Chargers offense is a powerful one in the passing game. Since Chiefs' rush defense has been pretty good lately and knowing how much the Chargers have choose to the run the ball, the Chiefs will be able to stop this kind of game and I think they can considerably complicate the job of RB LaDainian Tomlinson.

San Diego is in great shape since the 6th week, with QB Philip Rivers shown inggreat form by doing great and long passes, especially for TE Antonio Gates. Beyond Gates, the Chargers also have WR Vincent Jacksonm who is also nothing bad, so we can say that their passing game is quite good. San Diego is also well capable in the rushing game, with two very good rushers, RB LaDainian Tomlinsonand RB Darren Sproles, who is always a great help and do this part when things do not go well for Tomlinson.

Chargers defense has been very good lately in stopping the opponents' rushing game, which indicates that they will not have major problems with Chiefs' running game. Now, their secondary has having sometimes big problems and no one is better than WR Chris Chambers to exploit such weaknesses in the Chargers defense and I think that Matt Cassel and Chris Chalmers will give some hard work to San Diego's secondary.

For this game the Chargers are the favorites and I don't disagree with it, but I do not believe that this pointspread should be so high, because the Chiefs have played much better in the last weeks with a renewed offense, where QB Matt Cassel already has someone to rely to throw his passes and therefore, I do not believe that the Chiefs will lose this game by more than 2 touchdowns.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +14 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

 

[TommyGold]

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans

Arizona Cardinals curiously are playing much better on the road than at home, at least in away games the team plays at ease and rarely feels the pressure. QB Kurt Warner is an experienced quarterback and will again start with his big guns WR Larry Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin, who are quite good wide receivers and can give a lot of troubles to any defense in the NFL.

If Arizona's passing game is one of the best in the NFL, their rushing game early-season simply did not worked at all, but as long as they improvised their game using RB Beanie Wells, that the team has shown a very strong running game in their last games and became a more balanced offense.

Cardinals D is plays better against the rushing game than against the passing game and for this game it might be a good sign, because on the other side we have one of the best rushers in league, RB Chris Johnson. Cards D is able to deliver a lot of pressure on the opposite side and their passing defense is not that bad either, because when it's time for the Card to do something to stop the opponent's offense or win the game, they can do some good man coverage and cause pressure on the opposing quarterback too.

Tennessee Titans after 6 straight losses has recovered some of their injured players for their defense and now has 4 wins in a row but let's be honest, the 4 teams that Tennesse faced have nothing to do with Arizona. As we all know, the Titans since they put QB Vince Young on the starting lineup, have not lost a game, because he is holding the ball and doesn't throw interceptions. The weapons that Young will use are WR Nate Washington and WR Justin Gage, who are average players. The rushing game is without any doubt the strongest part of the Titans offense, they have one of the best rushers in the league, RB Chris Johnson, who is in good shape, but will have the difficult task of running through the Cardinals run defense, which is pretty good.

Tennessee has improved a lot on their defense, especially against the passing game since recovering some important injured players, but I think that since the bye week, this Titans defense has not been tested, because the 4 opponents they faced in the last 4 games, have nothing to do with the offense they will have to deal with in this game, and Warner and Boldin will cause many problems to the Titans D. Their run defense is not bad, but they will have to face rushing game that has been improving week after week and is very likely that they will have some problems in this subject too.

The Cardinals on the road had shown great quality with excellent passing game and good defense and the Titans despite their 4 straight wins, have not been trully tested and I think that Arizona will win this game.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica

 

[CaptFlippy]

Good Luck!

 

[TommyGold]

Many thanks, CaptFlippy!!!

 

[TommyGold]

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

The New England Patriots are getting better as a team and for me it's one of the biggest contenders to the Super Bowl. The Patriots O is a real luxury, the team has one of the best quarterbacks ever, QB Tom Brady, who has great weapons at his disposal: WR Randy Moss, WR Wes Welker and TE Ben Watson. This means that the Pats' passing game is undoubtedly on of the best in the NFL, if not even the best! With a healthy WR Wes Welker, New England has produced much more in the offense and the connection "Tom Brady-Wes Welker" is really explosive.

Patriots' rushing game is also well served, even with the injury of RB Fred Taylor and consequent absence, the team has rushers as RB Laurence Maroney who is playing well and RB Sammy Morris, or even RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. With these high quality rushers, the Patriots have the best quality offense in the NFL, because they have an outstanding quarterback, excellent wide receivers and great rushers.

On the defense, the Pats had some ups and downs in the past and they will have certainly some troubles defending the Saints' passing game, which itself is the best of the league this season. Despite the youth of the Pats' secondary, I consider it a very good defense when they are focused, doing a good man coverage and they can do some regular interceptions. The New England's rushing defense is not all that bad, but I think that for this game, the Patriots will give some room to the Saints in this kind of game.

The New Orleans Saints haven't lost yet on this season and they're a number one seed for the playoffs. Their offense has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, QB Drew Brees, who is doing a great season, and he can count with WR Marques Colston, Devery Henderson WR and TE Jeremy Shockey to pass the ball, all these guys are very good players in their functions. The Saints passing game is not as strong as the Patriots, but is their best strength and QB Drew Brees loves to throw deep balls. Their rushing game is also quite good, RB Reggie Bush, RB Pierre Thomas and even RB Mike Bell are very good athletes, and the Saints can cause a lot of problems to many defenses in the NFL. Overall, have no doubts, these New Orleans Saints are an offense powerhouse.

The Saints defense started very well, but since some of the players in their secondary were injured, the team has lost a lot of quality in this area and the secondary performance has been lousy lately. The Saints D will face a great offense powerhouse too and I think they'll have huge problems to stop the Brady, Moss and Welker trio. They have been saved by their offense, which can outscore almost every team in the NFL when they feel the pressure and the Saints offense like to play with the pressure and they perform a lot more focused with that pressure.

Thanks to the absences on the Saints secondary, I believe that New Orleans will suffer their first loss in the season, because the Patriots will eat the Saints' secondary alive. On the other side, the Pats defense The key for the Pats win on this game will be their ability to deliver enough pressure on the Saints OL, doing a good man coverage on their secondary and trying to get some sacks on Drew Brews, who might have some opportunities to send his deep balls and surely the New England defense will take some damage thanks to those plays, but in the overall, I believe that the Patriots will prevail in the end and I think that we will see here again a game like the last Pats @ Colts, with huge points scored in this game and that's the reason why I also see enough in value in the over.


Pick: New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes & Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

 

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 12 results recap:

83 - Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (27-35: WIN)
84 - Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills: Miami Dolphins -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek (31-14: LOSS)
85 - Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-27: WIN)
86 - Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers: Kansas City Chiefs +14 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (43-14: LOSS)
87 - Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans: Arizona Cardinals +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (20-17: PUSH/VOID)
88 - New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (MNF): New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes (38-17: LOSS)
89 - New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (MNF): Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (38-17: LOSS)

SIDES: 2-3-1; TOTALS: 0-1 (Week 11: -2.14 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 44-44-1 (-3.99 units lost/88 units risked);
SIDES: 42-36 (+2.15 units won/78 units risked);
TOTALS 2-8 (-6.14 units lost/10 units risked).

Losing a total by a single half-point hurts... Will have to look back to what went wrong on the last couple of weeks... 3-7-1 on sides, awful performance. Since the end of Week 9 that I'm going downhill and this week the NFL was the black spot on a week that had a +24 units of profit on NBA, NCAAB and NHL... :s

 

[TommyGold]

NFL 2009 Week 13, 9 point spreads to risk:

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Denver Broncos -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Oakland Raiders +15 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins: New Orleans Saints -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears -9 -110 (1.91) The Greek

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: New England Patriots -3 -125 (1.80) Bet Jamaica

San Diego Chargers vs Cleveland Browns: San Diego Chargers -13.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF): Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF): Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: the oddsmakers do not know what to do about this game, so they opened the lines with a PK on each side and let the market work. The Jaguars are 6-5 this season and currently have one foot in the last wild card that gives access to the playoffs, but with Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the footsteps, I doubt they can keep this lead...

However, the motivation for this game should be enough to start with a win a series of 3 home games. And knowing that they receive after the Texans, Miami and Indianapolis in the next few weeks, imagine the moral boost of facing the Colts with a 7-5 record?

Houston has lost the last game and is a team with low morale, because the losses always cost in emotional terms, but can still mathematically reach the last spot of the playoffs, the problem is going to do 3 road games and two of them quite complicated, against Jaguars and Dolphins. Knowing that they play much better away from home, were my first choice, but after reviewing the other factors, I think it is wiser to stay out, because these Texans in the moment of truth have failed...


Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons: Without QB Matt Ryan, the Falcons had a FG advantage in the opening lines, courtesy of the oddsmakers. The Eagles on the road have acted with a bit lower than expected and on the last 4 games only managed to win 2 of them ... The prioblem is that the Falcons are not is good shape either and perhaps this is a good match for an Under, because both teams in the rushing game will have their best players sitting out on the sidelines. However, one never knows how the Falcons passing game will really work on this game, so I'd rather stay out of this game.


Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals: I will not play the Lions with Stafford having that arm injury not fully recovered. Going against Detroit -13 against a team as good on the offense like the Bengals are is always a snack, the problem is that these Bengals only played their best game against the best teams on the league.

Against the Bears, who are in the same division of the Lions, Cincy won big, but on the last game against the Browns, division rivals, they played just the minimum required to win the game and that has been almost the norm when the Bengals face lowly teams. In theory, Lions +13 would be a good pick, but the circumstances of the injury on the arm of Stafford, force me to leave this game aside.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: it's curious to see Bucs +6 going to Bucs +4, but that is explained because if I'm not wrong, Panthers' QB will be out for this game game and therefore, it is complicated to have a good read on the Panthers. Tampa Bay is a very weak team and perhaps, the best pick for this game is the Under 40. Were not the fact that I do not know very well these two teams and that I've already too many plays for this week and maybe I could take that risk ... The problem is that Tampa Bay can score always a few points per game, ranging between 14 and 21 points, and sometimes games between low scoring teams can open up and we end up with an over... Many unknowns to take risks that I find unnecessary ...

 

[TommyGold]

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF)

QB Kurt Warner is an experienced quarterback and despite being questionable for tonight, I think he will be on the starting lineup. On the passing game, he has WR Larry Fitzgerald (75 receptions and 11 TD), Warner's "best friend" and WR Anquan Boldin (56 rec/2 TD), 2 good wide receivers that any defense in the NFL has to be very careful to not give them too much room. WR Steve Breaston was also used this season and he has some nice numbers, 43 receptions and 3 TD, so we can really say that Arizona's passing game is one of the best in the NFL.

Cardinals' rushing game is now improved, rookie RB Beanie Wells has already scored 4 TD and he is a nice addiction for the team, which has shown a very strong running game in their last games and are now more balanced offense. RB Tim Hightower has some health problems but he might seeing him too on this game, if not as a rusher, at least a tight-end, to give the Cards some options on the short passing game. Yet, the running game is the weak spot of the Cardinals and Minny D has the edge on this one.

Arizona's defense does better against the running game than against the passing game, yet this might not be enough when you face the best rusher of the NFL. However, Cards D is able to deliver a lot of pressure on the opposite side and their passing defense is not that bad either, but they have their moments, sometimes they play very good, sometimes they don't and at home, they usually do not play that well and against the Vikings that can be deadly.

Minnesota defense is a very good and aggressive unit, one of the mainstays of this team in the past, but their secondary has been untested on the last weeks and they faced good offensive teams like the Steelers, the Packers or even the Ravens, they suffered a lot of points. For those who want to go for the Over, this might be a good angle, but for me that line is a bit too high thanks to Arizona's inconsistency.

On the offense, they have QB Brett Favre, who has been very good this season, he has not taken many chances and he has suffered very few interceptions because on this season he has done a very good management on his passing calls and he has taken advantage of the powerful rushing game at his disposal. QB Favre improved the Vikings passing game and with the best rusher of the NFL, RB Adrian Peterson (a player that is practically impossible to stop and even when he is stopped, he has far better numbers than any good rusher in the NFL, which makes him a key player on the Vikes O), the Minny O is quite strong and deadly to their opponents' defenses.

On the passing game, WR Bernard Berrian (38 rec/4 TD) has not been used that much this season, unlike WR Percy Harvin (42 rec/5TD) or WR Sidney Rice (56 rec/4 TD), who account for almost a mile in the passing game. Yet, when we look at the numbers of Adrian Peterson, we see that this team is very well balanced in terms of scoring touchdowns by the ground or by the air.

Both defenses will have problems when facing the opponents' passing game, but when the ball is carried by a rusher, the edge goes for the Purps, on both sides of the game, offense and defense. Minnesota has been much more consistent this season, despite having faced lower opponents lately while Arizona had a much tougher opposition. For me, knowing how unreliable the Cards have been at home, I'll have to give the Vikes the edge and I expect them to win this game by at least 1 touchdown or more. No matter the end result, ladies and gents, please enjoy the game!!!


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker