Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs

When everybody thought that the Giants would have a lot of issues on their Offense due to what happened to Plaxico Burress, the young receivers incorporated in the offensive team are taking care of the business. This Giants franchise is perhaps one of the best organized teams in all the field sectors, everybody knows their job and what to do and that translates in success in this season start. QB Eli Manning has been very good and secure, showing a good chemistry with his excellent young wide receivers and that is why they are scoring a lot of points in the offense. The Giants are also playing very well in their Defense, showing a lot of focus and they don't give their opposition many chances to progress down the field. Bottom line, this Giants' team is quite strong and complete.

Kansas City has a great problem to solve on their offense: QB Matt Cassel is a good plays, not bad at all, however he doesn't have the manpower to give continuity to his plays, like we saw on his last game where he did 14/18 for only 90 Yards, which is simply awful. Knowing that the Chiefs will face one of the best defenses in the NFL, things won't be pretty on this side of the game. If we look at the Chiefs D, they aren't playing good either, overall, and truth be told, Kansas City has not been well in this early season in any sector and it will be painful to watch them play against these Giants.

In conclusion, if New York is a very complete team, the Chiefs are the opposite, the Giants D will face a weak offense, and the Giants O has everything to make things harder for the Kansas City defense. For me, this Giants on the road have the upperhand and they will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: New York Giants -8,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

I wouldn't mind to play a ML parlay with the Giants + Colts + 49ers -125 (1,80) on Bookmaker with some lunch money.

 

[TommyGold]

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Time is running out for Tennessee, they lost their first 3 games of the season which is very bad for the team and if they don't start winning this week, their season is over. So, we have the Titans in a do-or-die situation, this is a must win game for them and for me, they have enough quality to pull it off. They have a decent QB and an excellent rushing game with Chris Johnson, very physical and capable of winning games, but the great problem of these Titans this year is on their pass defense, conceding a lot of points, which is odd since they have on the paper an outstanding Defense and they shouldn't suffer so much points like they did, so I'm expecting the Titans D to rise up to the occasion, doing their job as expected, because they have the quality and the skills to do so.

Jacksonville has a nice QB too and like the Titans, they also have a good rushing game, but I think that Jones Drew has not the same quality as Chris Johnson. This season, the Jags O is having a lot of troubles, too many rookies and things are not going well for them. Their offensive game plan is very predictable, they always go for the rushing game and the Titans head coach knows that and will surely prep is team against it, since Tennessee has a good ground defense. The Jags D only did a good first game against the Colts, after that they conceded a lot of points, they aren't doing well and that is not a good thing.

Tennesse can't lose this one, even if it is on the road, and quite frankly, I'm not seeing this Titans team with all the skilled players they have ending 0-4 in the week 4, they have the best team, they usually do well against Jacksonville winning almost every game they had with the Jags, so I think Tennessee will win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: Tennessee Titans -3 +100 (2,00) Legends

 

[TommyGold]

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Seattle is having a lot of problems with many important players injured, depleting their offensive and defensive of the needed quality to win games in this league. The Seahawks will visit a team that has a very good offense thanks to their franchise QB, one of the best in the NFL and on a field that is very hard to play and harder to win. The Seattle's offense is going to face a good opposition and to be honest, I'm not seeing them doing much damage to the Colts, it's the Seahawks D that will have the major troubles to stop Manning and Garçon.

Peyton Manning has been top-notch in this season start, thrilling with short and deep passes, and with the help of the second year WR Pierre Garçon, a lot of damage has been delivered on the opponents' defenses. The Colts D is playing very well this year, doing their job as expected. Indianapolis has a very close team, very complete in all the sectors of the field, which makes them very dangerous and they are also in top form.

I'm not seeing the Seattle defense putting a stop on the Manning / Garçon duo nor their offense to complicate matters to the Colts D, and therefore, with the edge of having the home field advantage, Indianapolis has everything to win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -10 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati has a good QB and Carson Palmer has great offensive options, which makes his team a dangerous one on the passing game. The Bengals have also used Cedric Benson a lot on the rushing game and I think that he is a good choice and he has proved it in the early season. So, we have a Bengals O with good choices to play both by the air on the ground, which makes this offensive team very dangerous. Remarkably, Cincinnati has also done well on the defense, which is a nice surprise, and I believe that with all these qualities, they might qualify to the Playoffs.

Cleveland changed their starting QB, but that won't change, because both players for that role are very weak after all and this Browns O is having a lot of troubles to score points, only 1 touchdown scored in their last 9 games says it all. The Cleveland defense is not playing good either, the team gives up a lot of ground against the rushing game and they don't do much damage against the opponents' passing game. Truth be told, this Browns D doesn't have any organization whatsoever and that is the main reason why Cleveland suffers so many points per game.

I enjoy seeing these Bengals playing again with QB Carson Palmer and I'm positively surprised to see the agressiveness that the Cincinatti defense puts in their game, because the Bengals have excellent offensive weapons and their defense is doing a nice job, and they are visiting a team that is very weak on both sides of the game, offensive and defensive alike. If the Bengals want to reach their goals on this season and make to the Playoffs, they can't lose these easy games. Cincinati will prove their superiority on this game and win it by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati has a good QB and Carson Palmer has great offensive options, which makes his team a dangerous one on the passing game. The Bengals have also used Cedric Benson a lot on the rushing game and I think that he is a good choice and he has proved it in the early season. So, we have a Bengals O with good choices to play both by the air on the ground, which makes this offensive team very dangerous. Remarkably, Cincinnati has also done well on the defense, which is a nice surprise, and I believe that with all these qualities, they might qualify to the Playoffs.

Cleveland changed their starting QB, but that won't change, because both players for that role are very weak after all and this Browns O is having a lot of troubles to score points, only 1 touchdown scored in their last 9 games says it all. The Cleveland defense is not playing good either, the team gives up a lot of ground against the rushing game and they don't do much damage against the opponents' passing game. Truth be told, this Browns D doesn't have any organization whatsoever and that is the main reason why Cleveland suffers so many points per game.

I enjoy seeing these Bengals playing again with QB Carson Palmer and I'm positively surprised to see the agressiveness that the Cincinatti defense puts in their game, because the Bengals have excellent offensive weapons and their defense is doing a nice job, and they are visiting a team that is very weak on both sides of the game, offensive and defensive alike. If the Bengals want to reach their goals on this season and make to the Playoffs, they can't lose these easy games. Cincinati will prove their superiority on this game and win it by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Saint Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

I don't have much to say positively about Saint Louis, this is a weak team on all the sectors. Their QB is weak, their offense is weak (the exception being their rushing game), their defense is weak (miserable might be a better adjective). Then you have a lot of important players sidelined with injuries, which depletes a team that has already few quality players to contend against the other teams in the league. So things are not going quite well for the Rams and their coaching staff will have to come up with a lot of patchwork in order to play this game.

San Francisco had a heart-breaking defeat last week, thanks to Brett Favre and Greg Lewis, with the former throwing a last second pass to the later, but the 49ers head coach already told to the press that the way they lost in Minneapolis won't cause troubles to the team, it will be quite the opposite, San Francisco is now much more ready and motivated than before for this game. Their calling card is an agressive defense, with put a lot fo work against the passing game and the rushing game as well, as we saw them do against the Vikes, where they neutralized with some degree of success the best rusher of the league (Adrian Peterson only had 85 yards for 19 carries, scoring is lowest average in his first three games with only 4.5 yards). The 49ers O shows a decent QB with good options on the passing game thanks to their nice wide receivers.

With all the issues plaguing the Rams, knowing that the 49ers are the best team in all the field sectors, it is my belief that the 49ers will make the most of their home field advantage and win easily this game by 2 or more touchdowns.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -9 -110 (1,91) The Greek

 

[TommyGold]

I wouldn't mind to play a ML parlay with the Giants + Colts + 49ers -125 (1,80) on Bookmaker with some lunch money.

That would be a nice winner!


And we had a 3-3 split on Week 4 Sunday. Too bat that Mark Clayton dropped the ball...

 

[TommyGold]

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay has a very good QB, but Aaron Rodgers suffers a lot of sacks and if he plays in this game like he did in the previous games, Minnesota will "take good care" of him. The Vikings D is very strong against the passing game, but they are even better when facing the opponents' rushing game, showing a lot of agressiveness and unless the Packers offensive line does an outstanding game, we will see Aaron Rodgers suffering a lof of sacks instead of making more good plays. Packers D has been very weak lately, if we don't count with their season opening, and if their running defense doesn't dramatically improve, they won't be able to stop the best rusher in the league, RB Adrian Peterson, and they will have a lot of problems to stop the Vikes ground offense.

This is the QB Brett Favre game that everyone wants to see, both the supports and the players as well, and all the Minnesota roster has stated they are supporting Brett Favre on this game, so everyone is on the same page and hopes to see him shine big time. For the veteran QB, this will be one of the most important games of his long career, with an added revenge factor motivation for Favre to show to his former team, that the "Packers" shouldn't let him go like they did.

The Vikings have this year a good an experience QB, something they didn't had before, they have the best rusher in the league, the head coach is not binded to play only the rushing game anymore, since he has now someone who can deliver the ball to his receivers, even in a very dramatic way like we saw in their last game, which for any opponent facing this Vikings O, is a living nightmare.

I believe that Favre will do his best to win this game, the team will support him, so the usual rivalry between Vikings and Packers as an added motive, and the edge after comparing Green Bay and Minnesota goes for the Vikings, not only because they have the home field advantage, but also because they have the better team, both on the offensive plan, and on the defensive plan as well. Henceforth, I think the Minnesota Vikings are going to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Below are my Week 4 results recap:

20 - Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: Baltimore Ravens +1,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)
21 - New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs: New York Giants -8,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)
22 - Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Tennessee Titans -3 +100 (2,00) Legends (LOSS)
23 - Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -10 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)
24 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker(LOSS)
25 - Saint Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 49ers -9 -110 (1,91) The Greek (WIN)
26 - Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)

SIDES: 4-3. (Week 4: +0,64 units)
NFL 2009 Season results - SIDES: 12-10; TOTALS 1-3. Overall: 13-13. Balance: -1,26 units

 

[TommyGold]

Another week, another round, 8 more picks to play:

Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek, KAN +9 -115/1,87 RebateWager

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes, ATL +3 -115/1,87 Bodog

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos: New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek, NYJ -1 -110/1,91 Wagerstreet

 

[TommyGold]

Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams

Minnesota has doing very well in this season start (4-0) thanks to their "new" weapon: if on the last season, their offense was predictable, using always the ground with Adrian Petersson, this time is the other way around, because the opponents' defenses can't just watch the best rusher in the league, but they also have to worry about the good passing game that the Vikings now have. Besides, they also have a nice defense, even if the stats say otherwise, truth is this season the Vikes aren't doing so well like last season, but you should not worry about it yet, at least, not in this game. They really have a good defensive unit, with 7 to 10 top-notch quality players, capable of stopping both the opponent's running game (10th in the season) and the passing game as well, showing also the ability to deliver pressure on the opponent's Quarterback and even getting a lot of sacks in the process (16 this season, 8 only in the last game against the Packers, 1st in the league).

Saint Louis are 0-4 this season, a complete misery, an authentic disaster, only 24 points scored in two games, 108 points conceded... I don't see Rams winning a lot of games this season, not this one for sure, their defense has been horrible, with a lot of key injured players, showing a very bad defensive organization, the team doesn't know what to do against the opponent's offense. If we look to their offense, the Rams are also dreadful in their passing game, and despite having a good rusher, the RB Steven Jackson, this poor fella will face one of the best ground defense units against the rush, and no matter how hard I look into this game, I simply can't see what the Rams can't really do to get a good result in this match.

The Vikings are doing fine, showing good form, they have been well organized, while the Rams are in terrible shape, ineffective as a team, and for me Minnesota will win BIG this game, at least by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sincerely I don't see anything special about this Cowboys this year, it is true that they are capable to fight for the Playoffs, but not much more than that. Terrell Owens could be a troublemaker, but for what I've seen Dallas playing, he is a great loss for this offense and his absence has been very noticed in the Cowboys' passing game. On the other hand, the Dallas' running game is very well served and the team will use it a lot in this match. The Cowboys D is not a safe or a reliable one and they haven't performed at a good level as most of their supporters would expect.

Kansas City has a decent QB but he doesn't have many options available on his offense and despite that, he has attempted and succeeded in getting some points to his team, so we can say that is in the offense that Chiefs have more difficulties, but on this match, I think Matt Cassel can really do some damage. On the defense, Kansas City is not one of the best teams in the league, but it is not one of the worst either, they did a decent job holding the Giants and if they do the same thing against the Cowboys, I believe that are capable to fight till the end for a win in this game.

I'm not seeing the Cowboys winning this game by more than 1 touchdown, in fact I believe the Chiefs have some chances to win this game until the last minute, so I see value on the dog for this match.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek, KAN +9 -115/1,87 RebateWager

 

[TommyGold]

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati (3-1) has started very well the season, they are 2-0 "perfect" on the road, only a loss on their first game, they had a great win against the Steelers, but I think that against the Ravens this good moment will come to an end. The Bengals have a good QB, excellent options available on the passing game and a nice rushing with RB Cedric Benson, but he will have a lot of problems against the outstanding Ravens' run defense. Cincy D has been very well so far and that is perhaps the main reason why the Bengals are having a very nice record this early in the season, but for this game, they will face a good rusher and a QB that is improving game after game and knows how to take the correct decisions throughout the game, what can quite complicate the life to the Bengals' D.

Despite last week defeat, Baltimore (3-1) is still for me one of the best teams in the NFL, very well organized throughout the field, their rushing game and passing game is performing very well, their Offense has scored a lot of points against all the teams they already face this season. Defensively Baltimore is a very strong team, not as strong like last season, but still one of the best in the league, playing very agressively, creating a lot of troubles to the opponents' quarterbacks and they are very strong against the opposition's running game.

After their last loss, and the way it happened, I don't see how the Ravens can possible lose this game and on top they have the home field advantage (2-0 home). Baltimore is a much better team on the offense and on the defense than the Bengals are, and I think they will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers

Atlanta (2-1) has a good QB, great quality Wide Receivers, which makes the air offense of the Falcons very dangerous. This is undoubtedly their strong spot, specially if we add their excellent TE Tony Gonzalez to the mix, and it is the Falcons O that will in my opinion make the difference in this game in favor of Atlanta. On the defensive plan, the Falcons had ups and downs, they have not a bad defensive unit, but they rely more on their offense than on their defense during the matches.

San Francisco (3-1) is doing a very nice start, but for this game is up to the 49ers' QB the responsability of solving this game for the West Coast team, if they want to keep winning, because their main rusher will not play and surely Shaun Hill will have to rely more on the passing game, which makes this 49ers' O a little bit predictable for this game. Anyway, is not the offense the best side of this San Francisco team, at least is not the major player in their wins, but their standout defense, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well, but despite their qualities, I believe that the Falcons O will give the 49ers D a lot of trouble with their WRs and TEs.

For me, the Falcons have a better team than the 49ers in the overall, the 49ers are stronger in the defense while the Falcons have the better offense, but I believe that in this game, the Atlanta Offense will prevail and therefore, I have to go with the small underdog on the road.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes, ATL +3 -115/1,87 Bodog

 

[TommyGold]

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Is no news that for me QB Tom Brady will be one day in the Pro Football Hall of Fame as one of the best Quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. He his improving is game week after week and therefore, I expect him to play better than in his last game against the Ravens. New England (3-1) has one of the best offenses in the league, playing much better than expect in this season start and with the return of WR Wes Welker, Brady will have again more quality options to pass the ball. If in the early season, the biggest issue with these Patriots was their defense and how they would behave against their opponents' offenses, now we can say that is thanks to their D that the Pats have already 3 wins under their belt. It is a young defensive unit, and they are improving their game week after week.

Denver (4-0) hasn't lost a game yet on this season and the reason for that is their great defense. The Broncos D is playing very well, causing a lot of pressure on the opponents' quarterbacks and they are getting a lot of sacks too, 15 already. Their QB Kyle Orton has been doing a nice season so far, but frankly I think he still has a long road ahead to become a good quarterback. Orton has 5 TD and 0 INTS, but he can be very thankful to his great quality WRs, which are doing excellent catches despite the bad throws delivered by Orton, with several low balls like I saw in his last game against the Dallas Cowboys. If it weren't his WRs getting all those balls with outstanding catches and we would see incomplete after incomplete passes.

New England is playing much better now, specially on the Offense and with the return of Wes Welker, the Patriots will have a broad range of tools to keep the Broncos D busy, and when Brady has that kind of options at his disposal, he plays much better, and this is for me the main factor for a fourth winner of the Pats this season, the first for the small favorite on the road, delivering the Broncos their first loss, and consequently both teams will finish the Week 5 with a 4-1 record. Take the Patriots to win by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick : New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes

 

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals

Houston (2-2) has showed already that they have a QB and steller WRs, which makes the Texans Offense very powerful. However, their biggest problem is their defense, having a lot of difficulties to stop both the opponents' passing game and running game as well. One of the reasons is the high number of casualties in the defensive unit with several important injured players. So, we have a team that despite being capable of scoring a lot of points in a good day, they will also suffer a lot of points too, thanks to the weaknesses present in their defense right now.

Arizona (1-2) after that last MNF defeat and a shameful home loss display against the Colts, had a Bye Week and they are now returning to competition with another home game and surely we will see this Cards team up and ready to win this game and get their first home win this season. Arizona has a good, seasoned quarterback and Kurt Warner has very good Wide Receivers to play with, the greatest problem with his offense is with the rushing game, which is being very bad, but I believe that on this game, the Cards will seize the opportunity to earn some important yards on the ground against the Texans D. The Arizona's defensive unit had a dismal performance against the Colts and I honestly expect that they had used this Bye Week to deeply review and analyze everything that went wrong in that game, so they can avoid doing again the same mistakes in this match.

I'm not seeing the Cardinals losing two straight games at home, specially when they badly need to win, against a depleted Texans' defense, facing a lot of problems on their own, which Arizona will surely exploit thanks to their great offensive options. I believe in a home win for the Cards and I really trust that Arizona will win by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Peyton Manning is in great shape, he is doing his best start ever, he is one of the best Quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL. He and Pierre Garçon are getting along very well, working together to decide the games in the Colts' favor very soon in the match and I think that will happen again in this game. If the Colts' O is very good and their performance is enhanced as a unit thanks to their excellent QB, the Indianapolis defense has been also outstanding, playing very well against the both opponents' running game and passing game, making a lot of pressure on the opposition's Quarterback and provoking a lot of errors in the adversaries' offense.

Tennessee has a very good team, their roster is very capable, but they are playing very badly. The Titans D, which once was the heart of the team, is being completely horrible, and they have some important casualties in their secundary, which will complicate their life against the Colts O. The Tennesse offense has been very weak, the team is relying only on their rushing game and they will face a team that is defending very well against the ground offense thisseason.

Historically this Titans' team does well at home against Indianapolis but for what I've seen this season of both teams, I only one winner and that winner is the Colts' team. They have a Quarterback that is playing very well, the Titans' D has been very bad, the Colts' D is being very impressive, mainly against the ground offense, and with all these factors mixed together, I believe that the Colts will win this game easily, specially by the fact that Peyton Manning doesn't have any problems in playing on the road in a Sunday Night Football, no extra pressure for him, he even loves this extra exposure and he even plays better with all the media and public attention focused on him. Henceforth, take the small favorite in the road and please, do me a favor: enjoy the game!


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes

 

[TommyGold]

With the Week 5 MNF game pending, we are 5-2 on SIDES (+2,57 units) this week.

 

[TommyGold]

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

The New York Jets (3-1) offense rely on their rookie QB Mark Sanchez, which is doing a nice NFL career start so far, to get the job done, but he will need a lot of games on his legs to become a good quarterback. The stronger spot of this Jets team this season is their defense, with great performances, being very well organized in the field and playing very well against the opponent's passing game adversário. LB Calvin Pace is returning to the team and he will play a vital role in his team to stop the opponent's rushing game, and for me, he is one of the best players in the league for that particular job. The Jets offense has some ups and downs, but I believe that against Miami's defense, they can get the upper hand.

Miami (1-3) will start again with QB Chad Henne for this game, he is not a bad player, but for me, the only thing he does well is to throw deep and not much else for now. Perhaps he can be a great quarterback in the future, but he has a long way to go. It is true that offensively, the Fins had everything going their way, but this Jets D has nothing to do with the Bills defense, in fact, I think this Miami offense will have huge difficulties in getting something positive from this game in the scoring department, despite having a good rusher, but the Dolphins will face a great running defense, suplemented with the return of LB Calvin Pace. Miami's D has not been very well this season so far and I believe they will have some troubles facing the Jets offense tonight.

Overall, I think that the Gang Green has everything to win this game, their defense has been very strong, the return of Calvin Pace is another advantage for the Jets, and despite being on the road and playing in the Fins home, I believe that the Jets will have more chances to progress down the field and score some points than Miami will against the great Jets defense. So, take the small fav on the road and enjoy the game.


Pick: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek, NYJ -1 -110/1,91 Wagerstreet