To Scalp or to Middle...what is the correct play?

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Books like cascade and pinnacle love middlers and scalpers.

Its the books who can`t book that don`t like them.
 

The Great Govenor of California
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Feb 21, 2001
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Sportyssavant,


I dont follow the nba, but I fade Lakers when Kobe plays, and on Lakers when Kobe is out.
 

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Sep 21, 2004
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can anyone help me out? ive never given this much thought until yesterday when i saw this thread and my mind started working overtime so i started looking for opportunities for middles and scalps.

i tried it three times last night and each occasion was a second half play, and all 3 were totals.

ill just mention the one winner and tell me if im on the right track with my reasoning or just got "lucky"

2nd half nets/lakers over 98 (55 to 50)
2nd half nets/lakers under 99.5 (55 to 50)

all three plays (six total bets) had a 1.5 pt difference and were made for 55bucks.

obviously i need to hit 1 out of 20 to break even. so how can i tell if i have at least a 5% chance of hitting my bet? and is the the proper way to look at these things? what if i could only get under 99, would that make it a pass?

also if anyone knows where i can find out more info on this stuff plz let me know.

thx alot

CAESAR
 

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