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The 49ers have scored at least 33 points in five of six games since he replaced an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13. Purdy has completed 110-of-161 pass attempts for 1,308 yards and 13 touchdowns in that span. Two weeks ago, it was Christian McCaffrey that did most of the damage against Seattle, rushing for 108 yards and a touchdown. Expect the same dose here. The 49ers are top 10 in both attempts and rushing yards, and the Seahawks will need to establish the ground game if they want a chance in this game. The total went under on December 15th, and I expect a similar game flow here, with a 20-13 type score.
Momentum-wise, the Jags have the advantage because of their five-game win streak and their previous domination over the Chargers earlier in the season. Since the Week 3 matchup, the Jaguars have gotten even stronger with Lawrence improving under center and the offense finding their running game. With Lawrence moving the ball around accurately and quickly, they will be able to make room for Etienne Jr. and the running game. Lawrence has been playing with a fire in his heart that seems to be continuously fueling him and the offense. In addition, the Jaguars' defense has a lot of threats in the secondary that will force the Chargers to use their lackluster running game. Expect some turnovers and strong offensive play by Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense.
The Chargers averaged 23 points per game and 24.1 points per game on the rod during the season. They averaged 31.3 points per game in their last three games against the Jaguars. With Jacksonville giving up 19 points per game at home and 7.3 points per game in their last three games, the Chargers will be held under their average in this game. The Jaguars are averaging 23.8 points per game and 23.1 points per game at home. They averaged 25.6 points per game in their last three games against the Chargers. With Los Angeles giving up 22.6 points per game on the road, the Jaguars won’t score enough points to push the score over the total.
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NFL Selections:
4k NY Giants +3 (WON)
2k NY Giants Over 48 (55 POINTS)
The Vikings have found ways to win in close games and the team has shown the confidence that they are never out of a game entirely. With that being said, the Vikings just haven’t won by a large margin this season. On aggregate, the Vikings have allowed more points than they’ve scored and the defense has been the Achilles heel. New York should be able to move the ball effectively against the Minnesota defense and Barkley should be able to move the ball well on the ground. The Giants’ defense has been strong in the red zone and on 3rd down conversion rates. With Minnesota being very reliant on Jefferson, the Giants will be able to key in almost exclusively on him and slow down his production. While the Vikings may find a way to pull out the victory, they will likely rely on the leg of Greg Joseph late in the game as we have seen many times.
Neither of these defenses generates much of a pass rush and the defenses haven’t been getting many takeaways. We should see both offenses find their way into the red zone. The big play ability of Jefferson and the legs of Jones will keep the drives alive. In a game where it is win or go home, expect to see an extra amount of 4th down offensive sets where we would usually see the punting unit. This game went over the total the last time these teams faced, and I don’t foresee either team changing their game plans this time around.
2k Miami Under 43.5 (65 POINTS)
The under is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last six games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The under is 5-1 in the Bills’ last six games following an against-the-spread win. The weather should not be a huge issue for either team. Yes, the conditions will be cold as temperatures will hover below freezing. But, there is no snow in the forecast. With that being said, the Dolphins are still going to have a tough time moving the ball and scoring points. The under is the play because I believe Miami will not score more than 10 points.
2k Baltimore Under 40.5 (LOST)
2k Baltimore (1H) Under 20 (19 POINTS)
These teams just scored 43 points in Week 18, but that means there’s plenty of fresh tape for the defenses to study over this week. The Ravens have averaged just 12.2 points per game since Jackson went down. The Ravens have seen the total go under in 5 of their last 6 games. The same can be said for the Bengals in four of their last six. When looking at the playoffs, the under is on an eight-game streak for Cincinnati and four games for Baltimore. Combine that with the fact that their defense has still been elite this season, and I expect a classic, gritty, and most importantly—low scoring—AFC North battle.
Putting pressure on Brady is key if the Cowboys want to finally beat him. The Bucs QB has not been sacked in three of the team’s last five games and has been sacked just four times total in that span. He has had plenty of time to work and that is something Dallas needs to disrupt. They have the front to do it and it is expected they will be coming all day for Tampa’s vaunted signal caller. Head-to-head the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and the Buccaneers are 2-13-1 in their last 16 games on grass, per Covers.com. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. When these two teams played in the season opener Tampa Bay won, 19-3. Both teams are very different now and the Cowboys have certainly found a better version of themselves which we believe will be on full display. It’s time for Dallas to break an eight-game road playoff losing streak.
NFL Playoffs 6-4 (60%)
NFL Regular Season 74-52 +$34,400 (59%)
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NFL PLAYOFFS 6-4 (60%) NFL Regular Season 74-52 +$34,400 (59%)
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NFL PLAYOFFS 6-5 (55%)
NFL Regular Season 74-52 +$34,400 (59%)
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4k Kansas City -9 (LOST)
The Chargers gave the Jaguars too many opportunities to come back. Kansas City will keep its foot on the pedal, though, especially after the Jags gave them all they could handle in their regular season meeting. The Super Bowl favorites will look to send a message to the league in this game.
The betting trends suggest Jacksonville will keep this close. They're averaging nearly 30 points during their six-game winning streak, with five ATS wins. I won't buy into the recent bias with a rested Chiefs team on the other sideline.
The Jags' defense struggles against the pass (fifth-worst in the NFL) and will take on the top passing offense in the league. The Chiefs can also rely on Mahomes to make it happen when it matters. KC scored the most red zone touchdowns (50) and boasts the top conversion rate (43%) on third and 10-plus yards this season. Jacksonville's defense isn't ready to go out of the locker room, either. This season, they allowed successful plays on 53 percent of plays in the first quarter (dead-last in the NFL).
Jacksonville has pass rushers, but the Chiefs will do enough to protect Mahomes, giving the gunslinger the necessary time to pick apart a poor Jags pass defense. That will be the difference in this game, resulting in a double-digit victory for the guys in red.
NFL PLAYOFFS 7-5 (58%)
NFL Regular Season 74-52 +$34,400 (59%)
4k San Francisco -4 (WON)
The San Francisco 49ers have a high-caliber defense and an elite offense. With Purdy under center, the 49ers' offense has been very successful. Purdy has thrown two or more touchdowns in seven consecutive games and will be looking to make that eight games when they face the Cowboys. On defense, the 49ers have been unstoppable earning big tackles, forcing turnovers, and forcing downs. This will happen against the Cowboys, especially because Prescott hasn't faced this defense yet and will turn the ball over. He made offense look easy against the Buccanneers but that won't be the case this time. Purdy and McCaffrey will come up big on offense while Bosa and Gipson Sr. come up big on the defense.
