Ty gentlemen.
10/3
4* OAK As@YANKEES UNDER 8.5-118
First thing to note is OAK pitching. They are going with a “bullpen” game which I think is really smart. It’ll be tough for the Yankees to prepare. They are starting with Liam. He has “opened” 8 games for OAK with a 2.08 ERA. Even better than that are his numbers since he was DFA’d and recalled in September. Since being recalled on Sept 1 he has a 1.38 ERA in 12 appearances. However he gave up 2 runs on Sept 1 and since then ZERO. He has been lights out his last 11 appearances. OAK will have 9 other fresh relievers to go after Liam based on the situation. We will see Trivino, Kelley, Petit, Butcher, and probably Rodney or Familia before handing it over to all star closer Treinen. David Forst will be managing this game like an ASG which is good for an under.
From the YANKEE side, we get Luis. He hasn’t been sharp this second half but he picked up steam to end the season with a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 starts. I understand that OAK got the best of Luis earlier in the year but I see that as a fluke. Luis has the highest velocity on fastballs out of every starting pitcher in the majors. Now why is that important - OAK is the THIRD worst fastball hitting team in majors (ahead over only TAMPA and SF) according to Statcast xwOBA. Luis should blow balls past these dudes all night.
Overall, I find it difficult on both sides for this to top 9+ runs.
10/3
4* OAK As@YANKEES UNDER 8.5-118
First thing to note is OAK pitching. They are going with a “bullpen” game which I think is really smart. It’ll be tough for the Yankees to prepare. They are starting with Liam. He has “opened” 8 games for OAK with a 2.08 ERA. Even better than that are his numbers since he was DFA’d and recalled in September. Since being recalled on Sept 1 he has a 1.38 ERA in 12 appearances. However he gave up 2 runs on Sept 1 and since then ZERO. He has been lights out his last 11 appearances. OAK will have 9 other fresh relievers to go after Liam based on the situation. We will see Trivino, Kelley, Petit, Butcher, and probably Rodney or Familia before handing it over to all star closer Treinen. David Forst will be managing this game like an ASG which is good for an under.
From the YANKEE side, we get Luis. He hasn’t been sharp this second half but he picked up steam to end the season with a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 starts. I understand that OAK got the best of Luis earlier in the year but I see that as a fluke. Luis has the highest velocity on fastballs out of every starting pitcher in the majors. Now why is that important - OAK is the THIRD worst fastball hitting team in majors (ahead over only TAMPA and SF) according to Statcast xwOBA. Luis should blow balls past these dudes all night.
Overall, I find it difficult on both sides for this to top 9+ runs.
Ty Hache.
YTD 34-26-1 (+17.14*)
Wickedly brutal loss on total last night. That game had no business going over. 7 runs in fins 3.5 innings. In terms of the 6th inning, Judge gets a fluke double which bounced foul like a foot in front of the plate, Stanton gets a miracle ball call when it was clearly a strike for a strikeout, Piscotty misses Voit’s hit by inches at the wall, and icing on the cake Lucroy apparently misses the tag when about scored on sac fly. Fast forward to 8th and there are two meaningless homers to push the game over. Brutal!
YTD 34-26-1 (+17.14*)
Wickedly brutal loss on total last night. That game had no business going over. 7 runs in fins 3.5 innings. In terms of the 6th inning, Judge gets a fluke double which bounced foul like a foot in front of the plate, Stanton gets a miracle ball call when it was clearly a strike for a strikeout, Piscotty misses Voit’s hit by inches at the wall, and icing on the cake Lucroy apparently misses the tag when about scored on sac fly. Fast forward to 8th and there are two meaningless homers to push the game over. Brutal!
YTD 34-26-1 (+17.14*)
10/4
4* Rockies@Brewers over 8.5 -108
3* Rockies +137
The last time Woodruff started against the Rockies, they tagged him for 7 runs over 3 IP and the last time Sentazela squared off vs the Brewers he fired 5 shutout innings with only 2 hits. Small sample sizes here. For Rockies though, they are just red hot. Won 10 of last 12 and averaged 6.25 runs per game over this stretch. Brewers are hot as well being winners of 8 straight averaging 7.4 runs per game. Something has to give. I lined this game up as a pick so I see tremendous value on + 38 cents. Sent has a better history against Brewers than Wood does against Rockies so I’ll take the value and hope the bats stay hot on both ends.
Prediction: Rockies 6-5
10/4
4* Rockies@Brewers over 8.5 -108
3* Rockies +137
The last time Woodruff started against the Rockies, they tagged him for 7 runs over 3 IP and the last time Sentazela squared off vs the Brewers he fired 5 shutout innings with only 2 hits. Small sample sizes here. For Rockies though, they are just red hot. Won 10 of last 12 and averaged 6.25 runs per game over this stretch. Brewers are hot as well being winners of 8 straight averaging 7.4 runs per game. Something has to give. I lined this game up as a pick so I see tremendous value on + 38 cents. Sent has a better history against Brewers than Wood does against Rockies so I’ll take the value and hope the bats stay hot on both ends.
Prediction: Rockies 6-5
3* Indians +1.5 -170
3* Indians +135
Not often do you find Kluber as a dog so I’ll take the value. He has been fantastic verse the Astros this year (1.35 ERA over 2 starts). Lifetime he is 6-3 verse them with a 2.83 ERA. On the other hand Verlander is 20-24 verse the Indians with a 4.71 ERA over his career. For whatever reason he struggles verse them. I’ll take the better pitching matchup at plus money and hedge on the R/L.
Good luck.
3* Indians +135
Not often do you find Kluber as a dog so I’ll take the value. He has been fantastic verse the Astros this year (1.35 ERA over 2 starts). Lifetime he is 6-3 verse them with a 2.83 ERA. On the other hand Verlander is 20-24 verse the Indians with a 4.71 ERA over his career. For whatever reason he struggles verse them. I’ll take the better pitching matchup at plus money and hedge on the R/L.
Good luck.
