Yesterdays Results
VCU -5 $440 to win $400 (Loser)
Buffalo -4.5 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
Toledo -5.5 $330 to win $300 (Loser)
Northeastern -12 $220 to win $200 (Loser)
Cincinnati -1.5 $220 to win (Loser)
Murray St -2 $440 to win $400 (Loser)
1-5 (-$1350)
Today's Results
Texas +2 $440 to win $400 (Winner)
Michigan St +1 $440 to win $400 (Loser)
Marquette +3 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
Rhode Island -2.5 $330 to win $300 (Loser)
Valpo -2 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
North Dakota St -4 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
4-2 (+$530)
YTD 41-42 Bankroll $3100 (-$1900)
VCU -5 $440 to win $400 (Loser)
Buffalo -4.5 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
Toledo -5.5 $330 to win $300 (Loser)
Northeastern -12 $220 to win $200 (Loser)
Cincinnati -1.5 $220 to win (Loser)
Murray St -2 $440 to win $400 (Loser)
1-5 (-$1350)
Today's Results
Texas +2 $440 to win $400 (Winner)
Michigan St +1 $440 to win $400 (Loser)
Marquette +3 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
Rhode Island -2.5 $330 to win $300 (Loser)
Valpo -2 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
North Dakota St -4 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
4-2 (+$530)
YTD 41-42 Bankroll $3100 (-$1900)
Buffalo +3.5 $330 to win $300 (Loser)
Wisconsin -3 $440 to win $400 (Loser)
Wichita st +3.5 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
Valpo -2.5 $440 to win $400 (Winner)
Cleveland St -2.5 $220 to win $200 (Loser)
Butler -6.5 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
North Dakota St +3 $220 to win $200 (Loser)
YTD 46-48 Bankroll $2840 (-$2160)
Wisconsin -3 $440 to win $400 (Loser)
Wichita st +3.5 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
Valpo -2.5 $440 to win $400 (Winner)
Cleveland St -2.5 $220 to win $200 (Loser)
Butler -6.5 $330 to win $300 (Winner)
North Dakota St +3 $220 to win $200 (Loser)
YTD 46-48 Bankroll $2840 (-$2160)
TJ - Just a friendly piece of advice. It is generally considered wise not to place a single bet >5% of your bankroll. Looking at your history, you are placing a lot of bets in 5-20% - this drastically increases your chance of "ruin"/"bankruptcy". I would recommend working with units and having a unit be a set% of your bankroll and find a reasonable max units. This will give you a much better chance of longer term success vs shorter term failure.
A bad statistical run can ruin anyone, but with 20% bankroll bets, I can nearly guarantee someone's ruin in the short term.
As an example lets look at your last two/next two bets:
After Arkansas/Baylor you are down another $30 @ $2810 - you split the pair, right in line with your season%.
If you lose tomorrow's Kentucky and BC bets (not entirely unlikely given your season record is a hair under 50%)...this would leave you at $1710, down 66% on your original bankroll. That's an incredibly large hole to dig out from. Chasing/Martingaling/Doubling Down because "I am sure to win" isn't going to help - so-called Gambler's Fallacy.
Of course, if you win, you get back a good chunk quickly, it is all about risk/reward. Given your current season history (and you have 104 results in, so a pretty good statistical basis/dataset):
Chances of both right: 19.5%
Chances of 1 right/wrong: 49.3%
Chances of both wrong: 31.1%
If you calculate an EV for your two bets, it would be approx: -$172 (about an 8% of bankroll -EV...presuming your performance continues at this pace).
My advice would be to pare back until you have some idea that you are doing the right thing, then press a little to get out of the hole.
Just so you know, I am pulling for ya and this is just a third generation gambler/bookie wanting to give you something to think about.
Oz
A bad statistical run can ruin anyone, but with 20% bankroll bets, I can nearly guarantee someone's ruin in the short term.
As an example lets look at your last two/next two bets:
After Arkansas/Baylor you are down another $30 @ $2810 - you split the pair, right in line with your season%.
If you lose tomorrow's Kentucky and BC bets (not entirely unlikely given your season record is a hair under 50%)...this would leave you at $1710, down 66% on your original bankroll. That's an incredibly large hole to dig out from. Chasing/Martingaling/Doubling Down because "I am sure to win" isn't going to help - so-called Gambler's Fallacy.
Of course, if you win, you get back a good chunk quickly, it is all about risk/reward. Given your current season history (and you have 104 results in, so a pretty good statistical basis/dataset):
Chances of both right: 19.5%
Chances of 1 right/wrong: 49.3%
Chances of both wrong: 31.1%
If you calculate an EV for your two bets, it would be approx: -$172 (about an 8% of bankroll -EV...presuming your performance continues at this pace).
My advice would be to pare back until you have some idea that you are doing the right thing, then press a little to get out of the hole.
Just so you know, I am pulling for ya and this is just a third generation gambler/bookie wanting to give you something to think about.
Oz
Thanks Oz , some great advice money management has always been my biggest downfall. I've decided after tonight i'm going to take the weekend off and figure some things out.
Gonna lower my bets and try to dig my way out of this hole. Its a long season hopefully I can get this figured out and make it a positive year.
TJ
Gonna lower my bets and try to dig my way out of this hole. Its a long season hopefully I can get this figured out and make it a positive year.
TJ
