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[Greenbacks]

At-large teams with losing conference records don't last

Since there was such an interesting bubble this season, it stands to reason that there are a few teams in the field of 68 that underwhelmed in conference play. But this year, an NCAA tournament record five such teams were given at-large bids (Alabama, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Syracuse and Texas, all 8-10 in their respective conferences). The previous mark was three in 1991.
The past four teams to receive at-large bids despite sub-.500 conference records lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament, and it has been a long time since any such team advanced to the second week of the tourney. In fact, it has been 13 years since an at-large selection with a losing conference record won more than one game in the tournament (2005 NC State), and the only time such a team won more than two games was 31 years ago (1987 LSU).
When it comes to winning in the first round, it has truly been a 50/50 proposition. The 36 teams with losing conference records to receive at-large bids have an 18-18 mark in the first round, with Illinois (seventh seed) and Minnesota (11th seed) being the last to win, in 2013. Winning a game is one thing, but winning the two needed to reach the Sweet 16 is another, as only five of those 18 first-round winners have been able to do that. Last year, Kansas State played in the First Four as an 11-seed despite its 8-10 record in the Big 12, and while the Wildcats defeated Wake Forest to reach the round of 64, they advanced no further. Arizona State and Syracuse will face off in the First Four.

 

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[h=2]The First Four matters[/h]Need a reason to pay attention to what happens in the Tuesday and Wednesday night NCAA tourney games? There's a seven-year trend that could help you pinpoint an early upset pick in your bracket.
Exactly one team from the First Four has advanced to the second round each year since its inception in 2011. Interestingly, in six of the seven years, it was the team that won Wednesday's non-16-seed game. In all, Tuesday night winners have won just one additional game in the tourney (Wichita State in 2016), while Wednesday's winners have won 11 additional games in those seven years, including USC's defeat of SMU in last year's first round.
So, who plays in the late game on Wednesday, you ask? That would be the aforementioned Arizona State-Syracuse matchup. Tuesday night's late game pits St. Bonaventure versus UCLA.

 

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First-round matchups

Here's a look at seed-versus-seed data for each of the first-round matchups, where there are some interesting recent trends.

1 vs. 16
No. 1 seeds have won all 132 meetings with No. 16 seeds, and the average margin of victory the past three years has been 28.4 points. Since 1998, only four of 80 matchups have been decided by single digits, all of which came in a three-year span (2012-14). One of those actually involved one of this year's No. 1 seeds, as Kansas struggled with 16th-seeded Western Kentucky in 2013 before winning by seven points.

2 vs. 15
Only eight times in 33 years has a No. 2 seed lost to a 15-seed, but half of those losses have come in the past six years. The most recent surprise came in 2016 when Middle Tennessee put a quick end to Michigan State's national championship hopes in the first round.
Last year, Kentucky's nine-point decision over NCAA tourney first-timer Northern Kentucky was the first single-digit victory for a No. 2 seed in the first round since 2010.
Of the eight No. 15s to win a game, only two of them won or shared their conference's regular-season title, but seven of them finished in the top two in the standings. The only exception is Santa Clara in 1993, which finished third in the West Coast Conference. Steve Nash was a freshman for the Broncos back then.
Of this year's 15-seeds, only Georgia State and Lipscomb finished in the top two in their conference during the regular season. Cal State Fullerton and Iona both finished fourth.

3 vs. 14
While No. 3 seeds have won 84 percent of all-time meetings with No. 14 seeds, last year marked the first time since 2012 that the 14-seeds failed to win at least one game.
Overall, No. 3 seeds have suffered five losses to No. 14s in the past five years after compiling an impressive 49-3 record against them from 2000 to 2012.
The past three No. 3s to lose in the first round all came from the Big 12: West Virginia (2016), Baylor (2015) and Iowa State (2015). That should serve as a word of warning to Texas Tech, which is the 3-seed in the East Region and faces Stephen F. Austin on Thursday in Dallas.

4 vs. 13
No. 13 seeds are mired in quite a slump, as they have just one win in the past four years, easily their fewest in any four-year span. This drought comes on the heels of the most successful run 13-seeds ever had, when they won at least one game in a record six straight tournaments from 2008 to 2013.
Despite the recent struggles, at least one No. 13 seed has beaten a No. 4 seed in 23 of 33 years. Asking for multiple such upsets in a single tournament is rather ambitious, though. Only three times have two 13-seeds won a first-round game in the same tournament (1987, 2001, 2008), with this being the 10-year anniversary of the last such occurrence.

5 vs. 12
When it comes to picking upsets in the bracket, the first place people look is often at the 5-12 matchups, and understandably so.
At least one No. 12 seed has beaten a 5-seed in 29 of the past 33 years (1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 are the only exceptions).
Last year, Middle Tennessee took out a Big Ten opponent in the first round for the second straight tourney, knocking off No. 5 Minnesota in Milwaukee.

6 vs. 11
Don't be fooled by the 63 percent success rate No. 6 seeds have in this seed matchup since 1985. It has been a very different story this decade.
No. 11 seeds have won at least three out of four meetings with No. 6 seeds in consecutive years for the first time ever. By comparison, 6-seeds have won a majority of the matchups just once in the past eight years (2013), going 14-18 in that span.
While the 11s have been on the good side of things recently, it's quite rare for either seed to sweep all four meetings in a single tournament. Only once in the past 18 years have the No. 6 seeds done so (2004), and it has been nearly three decades since the only time No. 11 seeds ever got the brooms out (1989).

7 vs. 10
While the 6-11 pairing has become increasingly difficult to pick, the 7-10 matchup has actually been surprisingly one-sided of late. Four times in the past five years, No. 7 seeds have won three of the four matchups. To put that into perspective, No. 10 seeds have done that just four times ever, even if you go back to when seeding began in 1979.
Since 2010, no first-round seed pairing has had more games decided by single digits than this one (24), including 10 decided by 3 points or fewer or in overtime.

8 vs. 9
You expect these to be toss-up games, and historically they are, as No. 8 seeds hold a 67-65 edge. However, 8-seeds have been particularly successful recently, winning 19 of 28 meetings during the past seven years. In addition, only once in the past 10 years have No. 9 seeds won more than two of the four matchups in a single tournament.

 

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Sweet 16/Elite Eight

How far should you advance the top 16 seeds in your bracket?

It remains to be seen whether the perceived lack of truly great teams means a wild ride is ahead for the top four teams in each region, but here's a look at how these "protected seeds" have fared through the years:

• Last year, the top four seeds in each region survived the first round for only the fifth time ever, and the first time since 2007. It has never been done in back-to-back tournaments.

• The top four seeds in a region have reached the Sweet 16 in only 17 of 132 regions (12.9 percent) since 1985. It happened in the South Region in 2017 and the West Region in 2016. Only once before, though, have we seen the top four seeds in at least one region get through the first weekend three years in a row (2007-09).
And in case you're wondering if the top four seeds in TWO regions advanced past the first weekend in the same tournament, the answer is yes (1989, 1991, 2009), but only once in the past 26 years. It's not that much fun to pick all the favorites in your bracket anyway, right?

• Just because it's called the Elite Eight doesn't mean all the teams that get that far were considered "elite" entering the Big Dance. Only three times have all Elite Eight participants been seeded fourth or better (1995, 2007, 2009). In fact, there have been multiple teams seeded worse than fourth in the Elite Eight each of the past two years and in three of the past four.

• There has never been an Elite Eight without a No. 1 seed present, but there have been three instances in the modern era when only one top seed got there (2000, 2011, 2013). By contrast, all four No. 1 seeds have reached the Elite Eight on eight occasions, although 2016 is the only time it has happened in the past eight years.

 

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• If you want to simply play the percentages in your bracket, there are two things you should do with the No. 2 seeds:

1. Eliminate at least one No. 2 seed during the first week of games:Only once in the past 21 years have we had a Sweet 16 in which all the 2-seeds were still alive, and only four times in the modern era (1989, 1995, 1996, 2009).

2. Pick exactly two No. 2 seeds to reach the Elite Eight: Until last year, when only one No. 2 seed got there, that's precisely how it played out in each of the previous eight tournaments.

• Fewer than three No. 3 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in six of the past eight tournaments. Only twice have all four 3-seeds made it (2008, 2009) and just once have they been shut out entirely (1997).

 

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The difference between 8- and 9-seeds ... and does it matter?

Among at-large-caliber teams -- generally those seeded 12th or better qualify -- there are no two seeds that face a tougher path to the Sweet 16 than the 8s and 9s. It has everything to do with the second-round opponent that is looming: a No. 1 seed. In the modern era, Nos. 8 and 9 seeds combined don't have as many Sweet 16 appearances as the three seeds below them. And it might surprise you, but even No. 13 seeds have made more Sweet 16 trips than No. 9 seeds since 1985.

Earlier on, it was mentioned how historically close the first-round matchup is between these two. But beyond that point, it has always been interesting to me that No. 8s have had more success against No. 1s in the second round than the 9-seeds (13 wins to five).
The sample size gets smaller once you look at Sweet 16 results (especially for the No. 9s), but once again, the No. 8 seeds have had more staying power from that point forward as well.
In those Sweet 16 games, No. 8 seeds are an impressive 8-5, while No. 9s are 2-3. Boston College (1994) and Wichita State (2013) are the only 9-seeds to reach the Elite Eight. Meanwhile, not only have five No. 8 seeds advanced all the way to the Final Four, but three of them reached the title game.

 

[Greenbacks]

Double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16

It's worth taking at least one team seeded 10th or worse to advance past the first weekend. It has happened in 31 of the 33 years since the field expanded to 64 teams. There were at least three double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16 five straight years from 2010 to 2014, but there have been just four in the past three tournaments combined.

 

[Greenbacks]

Dry spell for No. 12s

As mentioned earlier, 12-seeds are often the first place veteran bracket-filler-outers look to plant their upset flags, but the past few years have been rather lean for these tournament darlings. No. 12 seeds have just three wins total in the past three NCAA tournaments, tied for the fewest by No. 12s in any three-year span in the modern era.

Three years is a small sample size -- and since each year stands on its own, it's really more of a coincidental trend -- but it still helps serve as a reminder not to get too ambitious when it comes to picking the 12s to reach the second week of NCAA tournament play. Here are some more nuggets related to 12-seeds to consider:

1. No team seeded 12th or worse has reached the Sweet 16 since 2013. This might surprise you, but it's the only time that has ever happened in consecutive years, let alone four straight! With so few consistently strong teams this season, will this streak end?

2. Even though 12-seeds have reached the Sweet 16 as often as 11-seeds since 1985 (20 times each), it still happens less than twice every three years on average. So, if you do think the drought ends this year, it's wise to pick ONLY ONE and to stay away from forecasting further advancement. Here's why:

• It's the 10-year anniversary of the only time two 12-seeds made the Sweet 16 in the same year (Villanova and San Diego in 2008). But it's worth noting that neither of them faced a No. 4 seed in the second round, instead defeating 13-seeds to get there.

• Of the 20 previous 12th-seeded Sweet 16 teams, only one (Missouri in 2002) advanced to the Elite Eight. The poor win-loss record has everything to do with the competition they've had to face. All 19 losses came against No. 1 seeds, while the Missouri victory came against a No. 8 seed (UCLA).

 

[Greenbacks]

Are No. 11 seeds the new Cinderella to pick?

While No. 12s have long been a hot topic once the bracket is revealed, recent results indicate that the more realistic Cinderella discussion should start at No. 11. After all, 11-seeds are often the final at-large teams to make the field -- major-conference teams that may have some puzzling defeats on their résumés but are also dangerous enough to beat anyone, or strong mid-major squads whose underwhelming schedule strength may have kept them from consideration as a higher seed.

Nearly half of the instances (nine of 20) in which No. 11 seeds have made the Sweet 16 have come in just the past eight years. If that seems like a lot, it is. Outside of the top four seeds, No. 11 seeds have reached the second weekend more often than any other seed in this span.
When it comes to having success in the Sweet 16, it's worth comparing the opposition that No. 11s have had to face with what was mentioned about No. 12s above.

While No. 11 seeds have had considerably more success than No. 12 seeds in that round -- 11-seeds are 7-13 in their Sweet 16 games compared to the one win for No. 12s -- it's important to note that almost all of their wins have come against teams seeded more closely to them. They are 2-1 versus 10-seeds, 3-0 versus 7-seeds and predictably 2-12 against No. 2 seeds. That said, 11th-seeded Xavier took out No. 2 Arizona in the 2017 tourney, 31 years after the only other time an 11 knocked off a 2 (LSU over Georgia Tech).

 

[Greenbacks]

Final Four

How many No. 1 seeds generally make the Final Four?

Simply put, the safe bet is one or two.

At least one No. 1 seed has reached the Final Four in six straight years and 10 of the past 11. Multiple 1-seeds have made the Final Four twice in the past three tournaments after it didn't happen at all from 2010 to 2014. In 2011, no 1- or 2-seeds made it, marking the only time that has ever happened. Thinking about just picking all four No. 1 seeds to get there? Not only does it make for a boring bracket, but it also has happened only once (2008).

Here is a breakdown of how many No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four since the beginning of seeding in 1979:

None -- 3 times
One -- 15 times
Two -- 16 times
Three -- 4 times
Four -- 1 time

 

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Here are a handful of other nuggets on lower seeds, with regard to the Final Four:

• Among the seeds that have reached the Final Four at least once, no seed is experiencing a bigger drought than the No. 6. Only three 6-seeds have made it to the Final Four, but it has been 26 years since the last time it happened (Providence in 1987, Kansas in 1988 and Michigan in 1992).

• From 1985 to 2013, neither a No. 7 nor a No. 10 seed made a Final Four appearance. But in the past four tournaments, we've seen three 7s (UConn in 2014, Michigan State in 2015 and South Carolina in 2017) and a 10 (Syracuse in 2016) get there. UConn became the first No. 7 seed to win the title, while Syracuse became the first No. 10 seed to reach the Final Four.

• Since 1979, six No. 8 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. Those teams are actually 4-2 in the national semifinals, but the lone 8-seed to win the title is Villanova in 1985.

• Since 1985, three No. 11 seeds have reached the Final Four (LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006 and VCU in 2011), which is as many as or more than Nos. 6, 7, 9 and 10 seeds.

 

[Greenbacks]

Not so sweet for defending champs

Would you believe that, since Florida's repeat in 2007, no defending champion has even gotten past the Sweet 16? It's true. Last year, defending champion Villanova was the No. 1 overall seed and couldn't get past the second round. As you'll see below, four of the past 10 champions didn't even make the NCAA tourney.

Defending Champions, Past 10 Years

	POSTSEASON RESULT
2017 Villanova	Lost in second round (No. 1 seed)
2016 Duke	Lost in Sweet 16 (No. 4 seed)
2015 Connecticut	NIT -- Lost in first round
2014 Louisville	Lost in Sweet 16 (No. 4 seed)
2013 Kentucky	NIT -- Lost in first round
2012 Connecticut	Lost in first round (No. 9 seed)
2011 Duke	Lost in Sweet 16 (No. 1 seed)
2010 North Carolina	NIT -- Lost in title game
2009 Kansas	Lost in Sweet 16 (No. 3 seed)
2008 Florida	NIT -- Lost in title game

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[Greenbacks]

Here are other facts of note, as it pertains to hoisting the trophy in early April:

• No team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. Last year, six teams that landed top-four seeds -- including Kansas (1) and Louisville (2) -- were bounced right off in the bat in their conference tourney, and none of them advanced past the Elite Eight. This year, Auburn is the only top-four seed that needs to be concerned about this curse. Ohio State (5), Florida (6), Miami (6) and TCU (6) are the only others better than a No. 7.

• Upsets may grab the headlines this month, but when it comes to winning championships, you have to look out for No. 1. In the 33 years since the field expanded, No. 1 seeds have accounted for 20 championships, including eight of the past 11. No other seed has more than five titles, and the top three seeds have combined for 29 of the 33 championships.

• We're still waiting for the first No. 5-seeded champion, although three 5-seeds have reached the championship game (Florida in 2000, Indiana in 2002 and Butler in 2010). There have been teams seeded sixth (NC State, 1983; Kansas, 1988), seventh (UConn, 2014) and eighth (Villanova, 1985) to win it all, however.

 

[Greenbacks]

Conferences

NOTE: References are since 1985, unless otherwise noted

Interested in which conferences have been the hottest in recent years, which ones have failed to meet expectations most often or which conference is still looking for its first win in the round of 64? This section is for you, with a tidbit on each of the 32 conferences.

 

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The America East is 3-30 in the first round and its teams haven't won a first-round game since Vermont defeated Syracuse in 2005. Since that win, only once has a conference team even stayed within single digits of its opponent. That's a bit deceiving, though, as many poorly seeded America East squads have showed a lot of fight against topflight opposition in recent years. Case in point, Vermont hung with No. 4 seed Purdue last year before losing by 10. This year, UMBC, fresh off its huge upset of Vermont in the conference title game, will try to become the first No. 16 to win a game when it faces No. 1 overall seed Virginia.

 

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Seventh-seeded UConn got the American Athletic Conference off to a great start back in 2014, winning the national title in the conference's first year of existence. In all, the American had two Sweet 16 teams and nine tourney wins that season. Since then, the conference has just three wins in as many years, all coming in the first round, though it's worth noting no team has been seeded higher than sixth in this span. Those first-round games the past few years have been really close, too, as five of the seven were decided by one or two points. Poor seeding is not an issue this year, as Cincinnati received the AAC's best seed ever (No. 2), while Wichita State got a 4-seed and Houston a 6.

 

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The last time an Atlantic 10 team advanced past the second round was 2014, matching the conference's longest Sweet 16 drought. While the A-10 hasn't had a team seeded better than seventh during this stretch, the past four Sweet 16 teams from the conference have actually been double-digit seeds. This is the A-10's 11th straight year with at least three bids, thanks to Davidson's upset of Rhode Island in the conference title game. URI is the highest-seeded conference team (No. 7), while St. Bonaventure is an 11-seed playing in the First Four and Davidson snagged a No. 12.

 

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If it's somehow possible for a conference to supply the eventual national champion and still have a disappointing NCAA tournament showing, the ACC did that last year. The ACC sent a conference-record nine teams to the Big Dance in 2017, but only the champion Tar Heels advanced past the first weekend. That was just the fifth time in the 38 years of seeding the ACC didn't have multiple teams in the Sweet 16, as a pair of 2-seeds (Duke, Louisville) and a 3-seed (Florida State) were sent packing in the round of 32. But let's keep it positive here ...

From 2011 to '14, the ACC experienced its longest dry spell without a team in the Final Four. In each of the three years since, the conference has had a team reach the title game, including the champion twice (Duke in 2015, North Carolina in 2017). Here's a quick overview of how deep ACC teams have advanced recently:
The ACC received nine bids yet again this year, including a 1-seed and a pair of No. 2s, so the expectations are there yet again.

 

[Greenbacks]

The past three times the Atlantic Sun received better than a 16-seed, its representative played very well in the first round. In 2013, we were introduced to "Dunk City," as FGCU became the first No. 15 seed to reach the Sweet 16. In 2014, 14th-seeded Mercer shocked Duke. Last year, 14-seed FGCU once again acquitted itself well before losing by six to Florida State. This year, NCAA tourney first-timer and 15th-seeded Lipscomb hopes to make a name for itself in a tough matchup with defending champion North Carolina.

 

[Greenbacks]

As strong as the Big 12 Conference is each year, it's hard to understand why its teams don't have more success in the tournament. While the conference didn't have a top-five seed lose in the first round for the first time in six years in 2017, there are still a couple of disappointing trends it'd like to reverse:

• Only one champion in the 21-year history of the conference (2008 Kansas)

• Only two Final Four teams in the past nine years

• Despite 10 Sweet 16 teams in the past four years, just three advanced to the Elite Eight

• Five of the 12 top-four seeds to lose in the first round since 2012 have been Big 12 teams (including each of the past three No. 3 seeds to fall in the round of 64)
The seven bids for the Big 12 tied a record for the conference, although only two are top-four seeds (Kansas and Texas Tech).