Time to buy citi

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the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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think it dies a slow orderly death over the long haul

just a complete mess

they are at a huge competitive disadvantage under TARP, have to sell off their good assets, and pay preferred divy's and stuff like that, and they sitting on a boatload of credit card debt that will continue to default like mad.....doesn't look good to me...

i think C on its death bed once again will be part of the catalyst for another hefty market decline come the 2nd half of 2010
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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actually they completed the share exchange in the 3rd quarter

you guys gotta realize how diluted C is now....

so C now stands at this

Citi will have approximately 22,880,304,796 shares of common stock outstanding. Upon completion, the U.S. government will own 7,692,307,692 shares, or 33.6% of outstanding shares.

so current market cap at 4.75 a share...is ~108 billion

? you should ask yourself is when do you think C can make 10 billion or so in a year....making the current valuation attractive

I'd say not for a long long time....if ever again....likely will be chopping itself apart piece by piece as we go along as the shitty assets suck the blood from it......
 

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I'm in C also, at $4.67. I think this stock steadily rises over the years.

This thread was started in July....with a lot of mixed thoughts. What are the October thoughts (now) on C?


While it may seem like a good investment, you're only looking at appx 125% ROI over like 2 years IMO. If you really want to invest in C, buy some Jan 2011 calls @ $7.50 or $10. That'd be the path of least resistance. You wont have to deal with as much volatility as the stock is going to have over the next year or so. Gov is still pulling their weight and, as far as we know, they have not started selling their shares (even though they've already got a huge ROI). Shows you how greedy the Gov really is, they're totally milking this, prob wont start selling until $6 IMO.

Anyway, you can buy those calls for .50 and .28 respectively. I'd go with the $10. But remember, you have to buy 100 share lots, so it's gonna cost you $280 for the right to purchase 100 shares of C @ $10 up until the 3rd Friday of January 2011. Calls are tradeable as well, so you can sell 'em if you ever want to. They go up and down with the price of the stock, just not as drastically. The ticker is: .VRNAB -- add it to your watch list and see how it moves. It'll probably get cheaper since Citi will likely trade down to $4.40, that's where I'd look to buy the Calls. It might go all the way down to $4.15, then those Calls might only be .25 if people really start to panic. GL
 

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wow tiz you really put it into perspective...22billion shares...thats over 2X as many as the highest i know of (GE had 9.9Billion last time i checked)...that stock is dead money
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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While it may seem like a good investment, you're only looking at appx 125% ROI over like 2 years IMO. If you really want to invest in C, buy some Jan 2011 calls @ $7.50 or $10. That'd be the path of least resistance. You wont have to deal with as much volatility as the stock is going to have over the next year or so. Gov is still pulling their weight and, as far as we know, they have not started selling their shares (even though they've already got a huge ROI). Shows you how greedy the Gov really is, they're totally milking this, prob wont start selling until $6 IMO.

Anyway, you can buy those calls for .50 and .28 respectively. I'd go with the $10. But remember, you have to buy 100 share lots, so it's gonna cost you $280 for the right to purchase 100 shares of C @ $10 up until the 3rd Friday of January 2011. Calls are tradeable as well, so you can sell 'em if you ever want to. They go up and down with the price of the stock, just not as drastically. The ticker is: .VRNAB -- add it to your watch list and see how it moves. It'll probably get cheaper since Citi will likely trade down to $4.40, that's where I'd look to buy the Calls. It might go all the way down to $4.15, then those Calls might only be .25 if people really start to panic. GL

not sure how you can say government is up on the deal we won't know that for a long time

they've invested 45 billion so far

there 7+ bil of C is worth 36.5 billion as of right now...does the government own any preferred's anymore...don't think they coverted them all?

but the key for government and taxpayer is what happens in the long haul as they guarantee any losses in their toxic shit over 300 billion

not sure when they started counting the billions in toxic assets LOL
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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well here's the arrangement of the 300 billion guarantee

FDIC already in enough trouble

they on the line for 10 billion after treasury takes on 5 billion if it gets that far

----------------------

In addition to the capital, Citigroup will have an extremely unusual arrangement in which the government agrees to backstop a roughly $300 billion pool of its assets, containing mortgage-backed securities among other things. Citigroup must absorb the first $37 billion to $40 billion in losses from these assets. If losses extend beyond that level, Treasury will absorb the next $5 billion in losses, followed by the FDIC taking on the next $10 billion in losses. Any losses on these assets beyond that level would be taken by the Fed.

------------------------

also as far as the government selling they gonna have to break their own rules to do that

the treasury has inside info that the rest of investors don't

so if they dump now....and C goes to shit...they are selling on inside the common shareholder doesn't have

gonna be a tricky exit for government
 

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back to value of C

18 billion or so new shares were added with the preferred conversion....they converted some non government shares as well

so basically it was diluted 80%

so a return to 2007 boom fun years level valuations at 55 would mean the current shares you own move to 11.....

and who knows if further dilutions coming down the road to boot
 

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also with the dilution you have to keep in mind the difference between last year and this year

they show a lower loss per share...

but they actually lost more this quarter...than they lost in Q3 of 2008

Citigroup posted a net loss to shareholders of $3.2 billion, or 27 cents a share, compared with a loss of $2.9 billion, or 61 cents a share, a year earlier.
 

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not sure how you can say government is up on the deal we won't know that for a long time

not sure when they started counting the billions in toxic assets LOL


I thought the Gov converted all the Preferreds to commons when C was being pounded into the ground and I was loading up. This was all happening around June-July, so if they were converting their preferreds to commons, they got all those commons around $2.60-3. Now C is trading just under $5, so that's about a 75% return already.

Maybe I'm mistaken about how this all went down, but that's how I understood it. Regardless, I dont see how the Gov isnt already turning a significant profit.

Same with Geithner and his JPM Warrants @ $40. Has he cashed 'em? Nope. Why? Greed. He wants more than a 25% ROI apparently, such shadiness. And playing with tax-payers money. Not nice Timmy!
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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i'm not sure the current standing

they did two bailouts with C

first one was 25 billion in preferred

2nd one was 20 billion (i think more preferreds) along with a guarantee 308 billion in mortgage related toxic shit (they probably got a few preferreds and/or warrants to go along with that)...and treasury, than FDIC, and than FED will take losses on anything past a certain point for those particular assets....

than i think they took 25 billion of preferreds from the first bailout and coverted to common...conversion was done at 3.25 a share (7.8 billion * 3.25 = 25 billion)....not sure what's the status on the 2nd 20 billion if they got and still have those preferreds or what?

plus what do you think will happen when word gets out the government wants to start dumping 7.8 billion in shares on the markets....won't be a good thing....gonna have a hard time getting out at the current prices...even though you may have a profit on paper....you have no profit till ya sell um....and there's the whole conflict of interest stuff....treasury gets an inside look at the books that common shareholders don't.....
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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as for the warrants of other guys

many did behind the scenes sales...

maybe JPM trying to look like a good guy auctioning them off rather than doing behind the scenes closed door negotions (or maybe they just didn't get out fast enough) as they shovel 0% money from the fed into 5% rate investments creating more bubbles as they take home crazy bonuses

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JPMorgan auction not as transparent as it seems
Posted Aug 10 2009, 11:13 AM by Minyanville
Rating: [Poor] [Poor] [Fair] [Fair] [Average] [Average] [Good] [Good] [Excellent] [Excellent]
Filed under: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Todd Harrison, American Express

This article was written by Minyanville's Megan Barnett

Since the downfall of Lehman Brothers, many of the biggest Wall Street banks have moved in lock step, as if to assume there is safety in numbers. Everyone took the bailout money at the same time (not that they had much choice), and now everyone wants to pay it back.

But now that the worst is behind the banking industry, or so many of them hope, at least one bank is finding reason to zig when everyone else zags. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is taking the unusual step of auctioning off the warrants held by the U.S. government, instead of buying them back for a price negotiated privately with Treasury officials, according to the New York Post. The auction will be held in the open market and conducted by the Treasury Department.

(See also: Megan Barnett's "The Small Price to Pay for Financial Fraud")

It's different. It's transparent. It's fair. It makes sense.

It's also suspicious.

Here's how it works: When the banks took bailout money from the government's TARP program, they gave the government warrants. Those warrants give the owner, in this case the U.S. Treasury, the right to buy shares of the banks' stock at a later date for a discounted price. In returning the bailout money to the U.S. Treasury, the banks are also buying back those warrants. So far, the deals with other big banks like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) have been struck behind closed doors, with the banks buying back warrants for prices determined in closed negotiations.

One finance professor who spoke to the Post likened it to selling your house back to the person who sold it to you. Maybe you'd have gotten a better price if you put it on the open market.

Since this is the taxpayers' money, critics argued, those negotiations should be out in the open. How are we to know that Morgan Stanley's warrants, which it bought back from the government for 68 cents on the dollar, were sold for the right price? Maybe someone else was willing to pay more for those warrants, giving more money back to the taxpayers' coffer. We'll never know.

Elizabeth Warren, the Harvard professor charged with public oversight of the troubled TARP program, estimates that taxpayers have lost about $2.7 billion on it so far.

Enter JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, with the idea of letting the market determine the price of the warrants instead of striking a deal with Washington officials in a shroud of secrecy. Sure, JPMorgan may very well end up paying more to redeem those warrants than we would if we bought them back ourselves, but it's so much more fair than the way Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, American Express (AXP) and the others did it.

You can just imagine the talks around the boardroom. "Hey, I've got an idea! Let's potentially lose money by letting the public bid on our warrants instead of just lowballing the Treasury like everyone else did. It would be so much more fair to Americans."

Forgive the cynicism, but fairness has never been a driving factor in dealmaking before, so it's tough to see why now is the time for it to start. It's also difficult to imagine how the bank officials expect to get a better deal from the auction than they would by spending an afternoon with Treasury officials.

Perhaps JP Morgan executives believe in karma, hoping that the goodwill accumulated by this stunning public relations coup will translate into more checking accounts and customer loans. Perhaps it's all part of a bigger effort to give Americans a warm and fuzzy feeling when they see the Chase sign down the street.

And perhaps they're right to do so. After all, how many $33 overdraft fees does it take to make up for the potential losses from a fair and open warrant sale?
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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err...well reading more sounds like treasury made an offer for the warrants and JPM said screw that....we'll auction them off...

GS on the other hand didn't want to drag out the process and just settled....

GS is a total done deal at this point that turned out good for taxpayer....got 23% annualized return on investment with GS

well at face value....like i said above....at the end of the day GS, JPM etc...just shoveling 0% fed money out the door into shit creating another bubble...while they get their huge bonuses

business as usual...
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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that's the one thing that surprises me the most outta this whole thing

back when the shit was going down i was saying investment banking as we know it is over

was way wrong on that....government juiced um up and let um continue their little bonus party
 

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plus what do you think will happen when word gets out the government wants to start dumping 7.8 billion in shares on the markets ... gonna have a hard time getting out at the current prices...even though you may have a profit on paper

AND

well at face value....like i said above....at the end of the day GS, JPM etc...just shoveling 0% fed money out the door into shit creating another bubble...while they get their huge bonuses
business as usual...


Word got out at the end of August that was gonna happen, and the stock took a dump down to $4.10 level, but bounced back. As for me, I unloaded my shares when it got over $5. I knew big boys were gonna come in and short it, especially considering it became marginal @ $5. They bought up a ton of the stock, started shorting it, then selling it off at market and just punished everyone who held.

It's a shame about the banks getting money at 0% and charging tax payers 5+% interest rates on everything. It's free money that is being supplied to the banks via the US Gov using Tax Payer's money. Sad. That's why I like China, lol ... Communism makes for a good country to invest in.

Maybe next year I'll join your bearishness on the US stock market, but I think the market still has some fuel in its tank still, and I'll ride it out. More earnings will tell the story, and it sounds like all the big companies are being paid to specifically say in all their Conference Calls that, "The worst is behind us." Lol, Ive heard that in every conference call I've listened to ... it's like it's being said intentionally and/or by instruction of a higher power. Bah, conspiracies.

Cheers :toast:
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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communism may be better than corporate fascism

but both suck

US is commufascist....a mix of both

free market capitalism been dead for a while now
 

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Citigroup Does the Impossible: It Screws Us Taxpayers Again
Posted Dec 17, 2009 10:13am EST by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: C, BAC, JPM, WFC, XLF, FAS, faz

From The Business Insider, Dec. 17, 2009:

The nausea we feel with respect to Citigroup
(C) and our Treasury Secretary just hit a new high.

Perhaps it's true that civilization would have ended if we had just allowed Sandy Weill's colossal junk pile to finish blowing itself up. But at this point that seems a more attractive alternative.

In case you missed it, here's the latest outrage:

As of yesterday afternoon, the United States taxpayer owned 34% of Citigroup's common stock
, in addition to a massive amout of TARP preferred stock. The US taxpayer did not own 34% of Citigroup's common stock by choice. We owned it because our government decided to bail Citigroup out not once, not twice, but three times.

In the last of these bailouts, the Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner gave Citigroup the latest in a long series of gifts, by converting some of our preferred stock to Citigroup common stock at $3.25 a share. This conversion price was too high and resulted in an invisible bailout/gift that most people missed. It also left taxpayers with the dubious privilege of holding Citigroup common stock.

Common stock is lower in the capital structure than preferred stock, meaning that it will be the first thing to be wiped out if Citigroup starts losing boatloads of money again. As Citigroup investors know all too well, common stock also carries with it a high possibility of loss: If the stock price falls, we're toast (whereas with preferred stock, we get our money back when the company redeems it).

Given all that, the first taxpayer holding that Citigroup should have sold should have been the common stock.

Citigroup's stock has been trading at $4 for several months. It is heavily traded. We could have dumped our entire stake in the company over the past few months for a reasonable gain. Instead, we just sat there, waiting to be reamed again.

Then Citigroup decided that it simply had to pay the TARP money back (understandable). Of course, Citigroup didn't have the money to do this. So it had to raise the money by selling $17 billion of new common stock at a huge discount to the trading price ($3.15) and diluting the heck out of the US taxpayer again. We now own only 26% of Citigroup, down from 34%. This value destruction is permanent.

As was the case with Bank of America and the rest of our bailouts, the fault for this one cannot be laid merely at the feet of Citigroup. Citigroup is behaving sensibly under the circumstances. The fault can--and should--be laid at the feet of the man who likely has done more for Wall Street at taxpayer expense than any man in history: Tim Geithner.

Will we get our money back? Possibly. If Citigroup stock recovers, and we sell our stock this time, we'll do fine. But we could still lose all of it. And, as with Bank of America, et al, by allowing the bank to redeem the TARP before implementing any new reforms or controls, we've given up whatever leverage we had left.

Here's how banking analyst Chris Kotowski of Oppenheimer describes what just happened to us...click here to read the full report.

Click "more" to view the accompanying video with Henry and Aaron.
 

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