Thursday Sweet 16 Sharp Report
7:09 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Gonzaga
This is the Sweet 16 clash in the West Region. Arkansas (27-8 SU, 20-14-1 ATS) is the 4-seed, having beaten 13-seed Vermont 75-71 but failing to cover as 5-point favorites and then edging 12-seed New Mexico State 53-48 but failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Gonzaga (28-3 SU, 15-15-1 ATS) is the 1-seed and has beaten 16-seed Georgia Southern 93-72, failing to cover as 22.5-point favorites and then escaped with an 82-78 win over 9-seed Memphis but failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites. This line opened with Gonzaga listed as an 8.5-point favorite. The public wants to sweat the top-seeded Zags but is wary of laying the big number, especially with the Zags failing to cover in both of their March Madness games thus far. However, despite a relatively split ticket count, we've seen Gonzaga grow from -8.5 to -9.5, indicating wiseguy action laying the points with the Zags. Gonzaga will lean on their offensive advantage (88 PPG vs 76 PPG). Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by ten points (82-72). Gonzaga is the favorite to cut down the nets at +230 (BetMGM). Arkansas is +5000. Drew Timme is the favorite to win Tournament Most Outstanding Player at +350.
9:39 p.m. ET: Texas Tech vs Duke
This is the Sweet 16 matchup in the West Region. Texas Tech (27-9 SU, 22-14 ATS) is the 3-seed, beating 14-seed Montana State 97-62 in the first round, covering as 15-point favorites, and then edging 11-seed Notre Dame 59-53 but failing to cover as 8-point favorites. Meanwhile, Duke (30-6 SU, 18-15-3 ATS) is the 2-seed, beating 15-seed Cal State Fullerton 78-61 in the opener but failing to cover as 18.5-point favorites and then dismissing 7-seed Michigan State 85-76 and covering as 6.5-point favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Love them or hate them, the public is all over Duke in Coach K's final hurrah. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move to Texas Tech -1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Red Raiders, who have value as a contrarian favorite and "Fade the Trendy dog" play. Ken Pom has Texas Tech winning this game by one point (69-68). The Red Raiders boast the top adjusted defense in the country. Texas Tech is +1600 to win the Big Dance. Duke is +1400.
9:59 p.m. ET: Houston vs Arizona
This is the Sweet 16 showdown in the South Region. Houston (31-5 SU, 24-12 ATS) is the 5-seed and has beaten 12-seed UAB 82-68, covering as 8.5-point favorites and then edging 4-seed Illinois 68-53, covering as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Arizona (33-3 SU, 19-15-2 ATS) is the 1-seed, beating 16-seed Wright State 87-70, failing to cover as 21.5-point favorites, and then squeaking by 9-seed TCU 85-80 but failing to cover as 10-point favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with higher-seed Wildcats. However, this line has fallen from 2 to 1.5, indicating pro money grabbing the points with contrarian dog Houston. Ken Pom has Houston winning the game by one point (74-73). Houston will lean on its smothering defense, giving up just 59 PPG compared to 68 PPG allowed for Arizona. Houston is +1000 to win March Madness. Arizona is +500.
7:09 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Gonzaga
This is the Sweet 16 clash in the West Region. Arkansas (27-8 SU, 20-14-1 ATS) is the 4-seed, having beaten 13-seed Vermont 75-71 but failing to cover as 5-point favorites and then edging 12-seed New Mexico State 53-48 but failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Gonzaga (28-3 SU, 15-15-1 ATS) is the 1-seed and has beaten 16-seed Georgia Southern 93-72, failing to cover as 22.5-point favorites and then escaped with an 82-78 win over 9-seed Memphis but failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites. This line opened with Gonzaga listed as an 8.5-point favorite. The public wants to sweat the top-seeded Zags but is wary of laying the big number, especially with the Zags failing to cover in both of their March Madness games thus far. However, despite a relatively split ticket count, we've seen Gonzaga grow from -8.5 to -9.5, indicating wiseguy action laying the points with the Zags. Gonzaga will lean on their offensive advantage (88 PPG vs 76 PPG). Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by ten points (82-72). Gonzaga is the favorite to cut down the nets at +230 (BetMGM). Arkansas is +5000. Drew Timme is the favorite to win Tournament Most Outstanding Player at +350.
9:39 p.m. ET: Texas Tech vs Duke
This is the Sweet 16 matchup in the West Region. Texas Tech (27-9 SU, 22-14 ATS) is the 3-seed, beating 14-seed Montana State 97-62 in the first round, covering as 15-point favorites, and then edging 11-seed Notre Dame 59-53 but failing to cover as 8-point favorites. Meanwhile, Duke (30-6 SU, 18-15-3 ATS) is the 2-seed, beating 15-seed Cal State Fullerton 78-61 in the opener but failing to cover as 18.5-point favorites and then dismissing 7-seed Michigan State 85-76 and covering as 6.5-point favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Love them or hate them, the public is all over Duke in Coach K's final hurrah. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move to Texas Tech -1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Red Raiders, who have value as a contrarian favorite and "Fade the Trendy dog" play. Ken Pom has Texas Tech winning this game by one point (69-68). The Red Raiders boast the top adjusted defense in the country. Texas Tech is +1600 to win the Big Dance. Duke is +1400.
9:59 p.m. ET: Houston vs Arizona
This is the Sweet 16 showdown in the South Region. Houston (31-5 SU, 24-12 ATS) is the 5-seed and has beaten 12-seed UAB 82-68, covering as 8.5-point favorites and then edging 4-seed Illinois 68-53, covering as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Arizona (33-3 SU, 19-15-2 ATS) is the 1-seed, beating 16-seed Wright State 87-70, failing to cover as 21.5-point favorites, and then squeaking by 9-seed TCU 85-80 but failing to cover as 10-point favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with higher-seed Wildcats. However, this line has fallen from 2 to 1.5, indicating pro money grabbing the points with contrarian dog Houston. Ken Pom has Houston winning the game by one point (74-73). Houston will lean on its smothering defense, giving up just 59 PPG compared to 68 PPG allowed for Arizona. Houston is +1000 to win March Madness. Arizona is +500.
Dionne D'Amico
5* Sweet 16 High Roller
Houston +1.5 (#623)
Winning games certainly shows how good you are. But if you look very closely it can also show your flaws. In their overtime win and no cover against TCU on Sunday, Arizona certainly had issues on the offensive boards. Houston is one of the best in the nation on the glass at both ends of the court. On the defensive side, they rank 20th in college basketball. They have the size, the strength, and the speed to not just frustrate the Wildcats, but also dominate on the boards. Furthermore, they also have a ton of experience come the month of March. If you recall they went to the Final Four just last year. Forwards, White Jr. and Carlton match up well with big men, Tubelis and Koloko. They are just as big and just as strong. But they also are significantly quicker. This poses a big problem for the Wildcats.
Houston won’t be intimidated here at all as they have stepped out of their conference this season, playing and beating some very big-name foes. And in those matchups against bigger conference opponents, their defense swarmed, frustrated, and overcame many talented offenses. They enter this matchup knowing they have won all five of their postseason games. And for our purposes, have also covered all five of those post-season matchups. The Wildcats are 4-11 against the spread the last 15 games played on neutral sites and 0-4 against spread the last four NCAA Tournament games. The Cougars are 12-3 against the spread the last 15 games played as an underdog and 25-9 against the spread the last 34 games played on neutral sites.
Play Houston.
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5* Sweet 16 High Roller
Houston +1.5 (#623)
Winning games certainly shows how good you are. But if you look very closely it can also show your flaws. In their overtime win and no cover against TCU on Sunday, Arizona certainly had issues on the offensive boards. Houston is one of the best in the nation on the glass at both ends of the court. On the defensive side, they rank 20th in college basketball. They have the size, the strength, and the speed to not just frustrate the Wildcats, but also dominate on the boards. Furthermore, they also have a ton of experience come the month of March. If you recall they went to the Final Four just last year. Forwards, White Jr. and Carlton match up well with big men, Tubelis and Koloko. They are just as big and just as strong. But they also are significantly quicker. This poses a big problem for the Wildcats.
Houston won’t be intimidated here at all as they have stepped out of their conference this season, playing and beating some very big-name foes. And in those matchups against bigger conference opponents, their defense swarmed, frustrated, and overcame many talented offenses. They enter this matchup knowing they have won all five of their postseason games. And for our purposes, have also covered all five of those post-season matchups. The Wildcats are 4-11 against the spread the last 15 games played on neutral sites and 0-4 against spread the last four NCAA Tournament games. The Cougars are 12-3 against the spread the last 15 games played as an underdog and 25-9 against the spread the last 34 games played on neutral sites.
Play Houston.
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Doc’s Sports
8 Unit Play. Take #630 Duke +1 over Texas Tech (9:39p.m., Thursday, March 24 CBS) NCAA TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR Texas Tech has been overvalued this season by the odds makers and metrics and I do not believe they should be favored in this game (morning line odds). Coach K has a great record in this round 16-9 and I do not believe this is the type of team that can take out Duke. Texas Tech is a great defensive team, but they struggle at times on offense, and I am not sure they will be able to score enough to keep pace with Duke. They also have a first-year coach with them who did not have any success in his previous stop as a head coach. I am not sure I trust him in a close game against the greatest coach in college basketball. Everyone wants to see a Duke - Gonzaga Elite 8 game and I feel that will happen. Duke has a national fan base, and they will be well represented in this game that takes place in San Francisco. Texas Tech is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games played on Thursday. Duke is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games played on Thursday.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports
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8 Unit Play. Take #630 Duke +1 over Texas Tech (9:39p.m., Thursday, March 24 CBS) NCAA TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR Texas Tech has been overvalued this season by the odds makers and metrics and I do not believe they should be favored in this game (morning line odds). Coach K has a great record in this round 16-9 and I do not believe this is the type of team that can take out Duke. Texas Tech is a great defensive team, but they struggle at times on offense, and I am not sure they will be able to score enough to keep pace with Duke. They also have a first-year coach with them who did not have any success in his previous stop as a head coach. I am not sure I trust him in a close game against the greatest coach in college basketball. Everyone wants to see a Duke - Gonzaga Elite 8 game and I feel that will happen. Duke has a national fan base, and they will be well represented in this game that takes place in San Francisco. Texas Tech is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games played on Thursday. Duke is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games played on Thursday.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports
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Strike Point Sports
8-Unit Play. Take #624 Arizona (-1.5) over Houston. (9:59 p.m., Thursday, March 24).
Here's the thing... at this point in the season, everyone is good and everyone has their reason for being here (except, St. Peter's, but more on them later). Arizona is one of the top offenses in the country, swept a decent conference, and came out of the blue to post a really impressive year. They have two studs in Christian Koloko and Benedict Mathurin, a bunch of solid role players who do their work, and a tempo that can stifle any opponent. The speed at which the Wildcats move in their halfcourt sets is only surpassed by the transition buckets they get on their way to 84+ points every night. Houston makes their name on their physical defensive style, but since they aren't as deep as they were due to injuries, they may have to decide how they want to keep Arizona close. Though the Cougars give up some size, they are athletic and relentless, especially on the offensive boards. While 3-point shooting isn't their calling card, we don't expect Arizona to shoot 19% again and now that Kerr Kriisa has a game under his belt, his 1-10 performance shouldn't be repeated. Houston won't go out without a fight, but we like the #1 seed to advance.
3-Unit Play. Take #625 Michigan (+5) over Villanova. (7:29 p.m., Thursday, March 24).
We're not necessarily sold on a Michigan team that only recently won its first back-to-back games in over seven weeks in this tournament. However, the Wolverines have the athletes, their own offensive rhythm, and a difference maker inside with Hunter Dickinson. Villanova has been in total control of their first two games, but Michigan presents different problems than a scrappy Delaware team or a shoddy Ohio State outfit. If the game is close, the Wildcats superb free throw shooting could push this number over, but we expect Michigan to fight for the SU win for long stretches.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
8-Unit Play. Take #624 Arizona (-1.5) over Houston. (9:59 p.m., Thursday, March 24).
Here's the thing... at this point in the season, everyone is good and everyone has their reason for being here (except, St. Peter's, but more on them later). Arizona is one of the top offenses in the country, swept a decent conference, and came out of the blue to post a really impressive year. They have two studs in Christian Koloko and Benedict Mathurin, a bunch of solid role players who do their work, and a tempo that can stifle any opponent. The speed at which the Wildcats move in their halfcourt sets is only surpassed by the transition buckets they get on their way to 84+ points every night. Houston makes their name on their physical defensive style, but since they aren't as deep as they were due to injuries, they may have to decide how they want to keep Arizona close. Though the Cougars give up some size, they are athletic and relentless, especially on the offensive boards. While 3-point shooting isn't their calling card, we don't expect Arizona to shoot 19% again and now that Kerr Kriisa has a game under his belt, his 1-10 performance shouldn't be repeated. Houston won't go out without a fight, but we like the #1 seed to advance.
3-Unit Play. Take #625 Michigan (+5) over Villanova. (7:29 p.m., Thursday, March 24).
We're not necessarily sold on a Michigan team that only recently won its first back-to-back games in over seven weeks in this tournament. However, the Wolverines have the athletes, their own offensive rhythm, and a difference maker inside with Hunter Dickinson. Villanova has been in total control of their first two games, but Michigan presents different problems than a scrappy Delaware team or a shoddy Ohio State outfit. If the game is close, the Wildcats superb free throw shooting could push this number over, but we expect Michigan to fight for the SU win for long stretches.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
The Whale
Conservative Selections
Regular Evolutions Series
NHL Edmonton and Islanders as even or favorites or +1.5 as underdogs
________________________________________________________
Straight Selections
NBA Best Bets of the Day to Win $200
510pm 572 New Orleans -2
510pm 1572 New Orleans -1 first half
NBA to Win $175
510pm 573 Over 238 on Pacers
610pm 575 Suns +4
610pm 575 Over 232 on Suns
440pm 1568 Under 110 on Toronto first half
510pm 1573 Over 122 on Pacers first half
College Basketball to Win $125
409pm 628 Gonzaga -9.5
409pm 628 Under 154.5 on Gonzaga
639pm 629 Over 136.5 on Texas Tech
7pm 624 Over 145 on Arizona
NHL To Win $100
4pm 02 Boston Bruins -110
430pm 08 Islanders -210
4pm 03 Over 6.5 on Florida
5pm 14 Winn Jets -250
5pm 10 St Louis Blues -233
6pm 16 Edmonton -232
6pm 16 Over 6 on Edmonton
7pm 19 Over 6 on Nashville
Aggressive Selections
NBA Two Team Parlays Bet $80
510pm 573 Over 238 on Pacers
510pm 572 New Orleans -2
610pm 575 Suns +4
610pm 575 Over 232 on Suns
510pm 1573 Over 122 on Pacers first half
510pm 1572 New Orleans -1 first half
College Basketball Two Team Parlays Bet $70
409pm 628 Gonzaga -9.5
409pm 628 Under 154.5 on Gonzaga
639pm 629 Over 136.5 on Texas Tech
7pm 624 Over 145 on Arizona
NHL Two Team Parlays Bet $70
4pm 02 Boston Bruins -110
430pm 08 Islanders -210
4pm 03 Over 6.5 on Florida
5pm 14 Winn Jets -250
5pm 10 St Louis Blues -233
6pm 16 Edmonton -232
6pm 16 Over 6 on Edmonton
7pm 19 Over 6 on Nashville
NBA Round Robins 2's and a 3 for $20 a way for $80
510pm 573 Over 238 on Pacers
510pm 572 New Orleans -2
610pm 575 Suns +4
610pm 575 Over 232 on Suns
510pm 1573 Over 122 on Pacers first half
510pm 1572 New Orleans -1 first half
College Basketball Round Robin 2's and a 3 for $15 a way for $60
409pm 628 Under 154.5 on Gonzaga
639pm 629 Over 136.5 on Texas Tech
7pm 624 Over 145 on Arizona
NHL Round Robin 3's and a 4 for $15 a way for $75
430pm 08 Islanders -210
5pm 14 Winn Jets -250
5pm 10 St Louis Blues -233
6pm 16 Edmonton -232
NHL Round Robin 3's and a 4 for $10 a way for $50
4pm 02 Boston Bruins -110
6pm 16 Over 6 on Edmonton
4pm 03 Over 6.5 on Florida
7pm 19 Over 6 on Nashville
Conservative Selections
Regular Evolutions Series
NHL Edmonton and Islanders as even or favorites or +1.5 as underdogs
________________________________________________________
Straight Selections
NBA Best Bets of the Day to Win $200
510pm 572 New Orleans -2
510pm 1572 New Orleans -1 first half
NBA to Win $175
510pm 573 Over 238 on Pacers
610pm 575 Suns +4
610pm 575 Over 232 on Suns
440pm 1568 Under 110 on Toronto first half
510pm 1573 Over 122 on Pacers first half
College Basketball to Win $125
409pm 628 Gonzaga -9.5
409pm 628 Under 154.5 on Gonzaga
639pm 629 Over 136.5 on Texas Tech
7pm 624 Over 145 on Arizona
NHL To Win $100
4pm 02 Boston Bruins -110
430pm 08 Islanders -210
4pm 03 Over 6.5 on Florida
5pm 14 Winn Jets -250
5pm 10 St Louis Blues -233
6pm 16 Edmonton -232
6pm 16 Over 6 on Edmonton
7pm 19 Over 6 on Nashville
Aggressive Selections
NBA Two Team Parlays Bet $80
510pm 573 Over 238 on Pacers
510pm 572 New Orleans -2
610pm 575 Suns +4
610pm 575 Over 232 on Suns
510pm 1573 Over 122 on Pacers first half
510pm 1572 New Orleans -1 first half
College Basketball Two Team Parlays Bet $70
409pm 628 Gonzaga -9.5
409pm 628 Under 154.5 on Gonzaga
639pm 629 Over 136.5 on Texas Tech
7pm 624 Over 145 on Arizona
NHL Two Team Parlays Bet $70
4pm 02 Boston Bruins -110
430pm 08 Islanders -210
4pm 03 Over 6.5 on Florida
5pm 14 Winn Jets -250
5pm 10 St Louis Blues -233
6pm 16 Edmonton -232
6pm 16 Over 6 on Edmonton
7pm 19 Over 6 on Nashville
NBA Round Robins 2's and a 3 for $20 a way for $80
510pm 573 Over 238 on Pacers
510pm 572 New Orleans -2
610pm 575 Suns +4
610pm 575 Over 232 on Suns
510pm 1573 Over 122 on Pacers first half
510pm 1572 New Orleans -1 first half
College Basketball Round Robin 2's and a 3 for $15 a way for $60
409pm 628 Under 154.5 on Gonzaga
639pm 629 Over 136.5 on Texas Tech
7pm 624 Over 145 on Arizona
NHL Round Robin 3's and a 4 for $15 a way for $75
430pm 08 Islanders -210
5pm 14 Winn Jets -250
5pm 10 St Louis Blues -233
6pm 16 Edmonton -232
NHL Round Robin 3's and a 4 for $10 a way for $50
4pm 02 Boston Bruins -110
6pm 16 Over 6 on Edmonton
4pm 03 Over 6.5 on Florida
7pm 19 Over 6 on Nashville
