Thursday Service Play Thread 10/27/2022

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JACK BRAYMAN
TODAY'S PLAY
The Pick: 50 Dime Memphis Grizzlies
 
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Game: (101) Baltimore Ravens at (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Oct 27 2022 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (-110)

3% Take Baltimore (#101)
I have two ‘rules’ for Thursday Night Football. First, I want to bet against first year head coaches – coaches that don’t have the track record for getting their teams ready on a very short week – you know, a guy like Todd Bowles.
Second, I want to bet against the older quarterbacks – in this case the OLDEST quarterback; guys whose bodies need that extra recuperation time between games. 45 year old Brady is coming off a game where he threw 49 pass attempts.
Tampa ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per carry and rushing yards per game – the offense is all Brady these days. None of the quotes coming out of the Buccaneers locker room indicate that Tampa is primed for an immediate turnaround.
When we look at their season, all three wins for this 3-4 team come with legitimate asterisks. They beat Dallas Week 1; the game where Dak Prescott got hurt. They beat the 2-5 Saints, but that game was tied 3-3 before a fight and the ejection of Marshon Lattimore turned the tide late. They beat the Falcons ONLY because of a truly ridiculous roughing the passer call on Atlanta late negating a Falcons rally.
This Bucs team isn’t capable of beating many quality foes right now. The defense has carried them while Brady and the offense have struggled, but that stop unit let go of the rope in Carolina last week; gashed for nearly 200 yards on the ground by a pair of backup running backs and gashed through the air by a third string career backup QB.
Baltimore saved their season with a blocked field goal to win last Sunday; clearly the better of these two teams in this short turnaround spot on Thursday. Take the Ravens.
Line Parameter: 3% at -2 or lower, 2% at -2.5 or higher

Teddy C.
 

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thanks for the info
 

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