20 Dime - Saints
The NFL lines have been up for months. Every sharp has taken a look and already have bet who they liked and will then sit back to see if the public goes Favre crazy and does something stupid. The line has not moved much. It opened at exactly the same line as the NFL Championship game, the Saints -4.5. Moved up a little to -5 which is where it is at posting as I sit here in Vegas looking eight at it.
So what has changed, if anything? Well the qb's are the same but we know who the better one was then and is now. Drew Brees. He doesn't turn the ball over and The Vikings had 5 in the last game. Plus you had the drama of Favre, who missed all of camp and then had to have his ankle lubricated to help out. Personally I think that the Vikings have made a huge mistake to beg the diva to come back this season. I don't think things will end well for him. Call it "messing with karma"
Favre will also be without his favorite wide receiver Sydney Rice, who will miss the first half of the season due to injury.
New Orleans on the other hand, is firing on all cylinders in the preseason. The toughest thing to do into defend and usually the players are saying all the right things but doing it is different. I really like the way both Sean Payton and Brees have handled the entire championship off season. Every detail has been covered right down to Payton unfurling the team's championship banner last night so his team would not become emotional if they saw it at the start of the game. That kind of stuff is brilliant!
Brees is not missing anything from an offensive standpoint. Defensively coordinator Williams will try to do the same as last year. Hit Favre whenever they have a chance and punish him and force him into bad decisions.
To me it is impossible for Favre to duplicate his miracle season that he had last year. He has even gone so far as to warn everybody of exactly that.
The coaching matchup also shows a huge edge to Payton over Childress. Hell it was even reported during the off season that one of e reason that Favre didn't want to return was because his Coach was "clueless " when it came to offense. I tend to agree.
Normally I would look to play against the the champ in the first couple of weeks, but not in this case. I really think that the Saints and the emotion that there fans will have tomorrow will completely envelop the Vikings.
5 Dime - Mississippi State
A surprising 78% of bets have come in on Auburn yet the line has moved from -2.5 to -1.5. That tells us two things that mean the same. No sharp support early to push it to -3 and we see the line go toward the home dog on a Thursday night. Coach Dan Mullen of the Bulldogs knows a little about the freaky QB of the Tigers Cam Newton! He had him at Florida before he transferred out and Mullen left to go to Miss. St. And the word is that once Mullen did go to Starkville, Newton chose to go elsewhere after he considered Miss. St. That also reels us something.
Auburn will play a lot of freshmen on defense and the rotating qb crew for Miss St should be able to move the ball up the field against them. Playing on the road for a young defensive group is always hazardous, especially for the first time in the SEC. Newton will get his as well, but in a Thursday night game, tradition has always leaned to the home dog and in the south we keep with tradition in what is a coin flip game that should have a lot of points. The over has been bet up 4 points so that has lost most if not all it's value.
