Thursday 9/25/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Skins look to rebound

NEW YORK GIANTS (1-2) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-2)

Line and Total: Washington -3.5, Total: 45

Kirk Cousins and the Redskins host Eli Manning and the Giants in a big divisional showdown on Thursday night.

New York got its first win of the season on Sunday, as it picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick three times on the way to a 30-17 home victory. Washington, on the other hand, went to Philadelphia and lost in a 37-34 shootout. The Giants will need to run the ball well in order to defeat a Redskins team that just held LeSean McCoy to 22 yards on 19 carries. Cousins, however, will be the key to the game for Washington. He must limit his mistakes and avoid turning the ball over at all costs against an aggressive New York secondary.

The Giants are 19-7 ATS (73%) in road games after gaining 400+ total yards in their previous game since 1992, and are also 58-37 ATS (61%) off a home win during that span. But the Redskins are 35-20 ATS (64%) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better since 1992.

New York has dominated this series with nine SU wins in the past 12 meetings, and each of the past five matchups have gone Under the total.

LBs Jon Beason (toe) and Devon Kennard (hamstring) are listed as questionable for the Giants, while a whole slew of Washington players like LB Akeem Jordan (knee), TE Jordan Reed (hamstring), CB Tracy Porter (hamstring), LB Brian Orakpo (finger) and DE Jason Hatcher (hamstring) are questionable for Thursday night. Redskins' top CB DeAngelo Hall tore his Achilles last week and is out for the remainder of the season.

The Giants finally put together a solid all-around performance last week, and that started with a mistake-free game from QB Eli Manning (674 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT), who was 21-of-28 for 234 yards and two touchdowns. This was Manning’s first game without an interception since Week 11 of last year. He will need to limit his turnovers again against the Redskins’ defense, as controlling the clock and winning the time of possession battle is crucial for New York.

Part of the reason the Giants were able to control the pace in Week 3 was the running of RB Rashad Jennings (286 yards, 2 TD), who rushed 34 times for 176 yards and a touchdown against Houston. New York will feed him early and often against the Redskins despite Washington holding the Eagles to just 54 rushing yards on Sunday.

WR Victor Cruz (12 rec., 191 yards, 1 TD) finally turned in a big performance for his team, catching five passes for 107 yards and a touchdown that snapped a touchdown drought that lasted nearly 365 days. If Thursday’s matchup turns into a shootout, Cruz will need to use his ability to get open very often.

The Giants must be better defensively against Washington than they have been against the rest of their opponents this season. They are allowing 25.7 PPG to start the year and their passing defense has really hurt them, allowing 258.3 yards per game through the air (22nd in NFL).

The Redskins led the Eagles 17-7 early in the second quarter, but were trailing 21-20 at halftime and never regained the lead. QB Kirk Cousins (677 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) was excellent under center, throwing for 427 yards with three touchdowns and just one pick.

He was able to make big plays and find ways to get the football into the hands of his top playmakers, WRs Pierre Garcon (22 rec, 227 yards, 1 TD) and DeSean Jackson (14 rec, 198 yards, 1 TD) who combined for 16 receptions, 255 yards and 2 TD. Cousins will need to have a big game against New York, as the Giants’ defense has been solid against the run this season and disappointing against the pass.

Alfred Morris (253 rush yards, 2 TD) carried the ball 23 times for 77 yards against the Eagles. The Redskins will need him to make more out of his touches against a Giants team that will certainly be playing to control the clock on Thursday.

Washington’s defense has been surprisingly good to start the year, allowing only 64.7 yards per game on the ground (3rd in NFL) and 218.0 yards per game through the air (10th in NFL). This unit should have a lot more trouble going forward, as it will now face a much more difficult part of the schedule.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 4
By Bruce Marshall

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON...G-Men won and covered both meetings LY. Giants "under" 23-13-2 since late 2011. Giants and slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.


Sunday, Sept. 28

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MIAMI vs. OAKLAND (at Wembley Stadium London)...Miami 0-3 in rare road chalk role since 2011. Dolphins also "under" 20-14-2 last 36. Slight to "under," based on "totals" and team trends.

GREEN BAY at CHICAGO...Pack has covered 6 of last 7 meetings including four straight at Soldier Field. Pack also "over" 8-2 last 10 away, Bears "over" 13-5-1 since LY after Monday "over" vs. Jets. "Over" and Packers, based on "totals" and series trends.

BUFFALO at HOUSTON...Bills were 1-6 as visiting dog LY but won at Bears in first 2014 try. Texans, based on recent Bills road woes.

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS...Colts have won last five SU in series (3-1-1 vs. line in those), Titans not close to cover last two TY. Colts, based on series trends.

CAROLINA at BALTIMORE...Ravens "under" 7-4-1 last 12 as host. Panthers 8-1 last nine as road dog. Carolina "under" 14-6 last 20 since 2013. "Under" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

DETROIT at NY JETS...Lions still struggling on road, now 6-15-1 last 22 vs. number away since mid 2011 (0-1 2014). Jets 7-3 SU as host since LY. Jets, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at PITTSBURGH...Bucs laboring 0-3 SU and vs. line. Now 3-8 last 11 as road dog (0-1 for Lovie). Steelers, based on recent Bucs woes.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN DIEGO...Jags 0-3 vs. line TY, now 0-5-1 last six vs. spread. Jax "over" 7-3-1 last 11 away. Bolts 6-3 last 9 vs. line at Qualcomm. Chargers and slight to "over," based on Jag woes and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO...Eagles 4-1 as road dog for Chip Kelly. Also "over" 7-2 last nine away. 49ers 1-3-1 vs. points last five as host (0-1 in new Levi's TY). Eagles and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at MINNESOTA...Vikes "under" first three in 2014 after "over" 12-4 LY. Minnesota 6-1 as home dog past two seasons but 0-1 in role TY. Falcons 10-6-1 as road chalk since 20111. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

NEW ORLEANS at DALLAS...Saints no covers first two on road TY, now 0-6 as road chalk since LY. Also "over" first two away in 2014 after "under" 7-1 in role LY. Cowboys 6-14 last 20 vs. line as host (0-1 TY). Also "over" 10-6 last 16 at Arlington. "Over" and Cowboys, based on "totals" and team trends.


Monday, Sept. 29

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NEW ENGLAND at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs under" 11-4 last 15 as host. Belichick,1-5 last six as road chalk. Chiefs and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 4
By Marc Lawrence

It’s 3-for-3 in the NFL this 2014 season with no less than three undefeated teams still standing after the first three weeks of play. And at least two of the three teams – Arizona, Cincinnati and Philadelphia – will remain unscathed next week as the annual NFL Bye Week is now in effect with the Cardinals and Bengals sidelined this weekend.

As is our custom in this weekly report, let’s go inside the stats and analyze the numbers you won’t find on the scoreboard. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, September 22nd unless noted otherwise.

Like for Like

As we head into the final week of September, college football teams, here are the leading offensive and defensive stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of three game results. Stats compiled in FCS games are excluded.

Best Offenses Yards Per Game:
1. Texas A&M 607
2. Western Kentucky 606
3. Nebraska 601

Worst Offenses Yards Per Game:
1. Eastern Michigan 158
2. SMU 194
3. Wake Forest 221

Best Defenses Yards Per Game:
1. Louisville 245
2. Alabama 250
3. Michigan 261

Worst Defenses Yards Per Game:
1. Bowling Green 679
2. UNLV 646
3. Fresno State 600

Inside the Stats

As you know, football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. The gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.

Here are the phony teams playing this week who won ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:

-- College Football: Arizona State, Iowa, Maryland and Southern Mississippi.
-- NFL: Chicago Bears (again), Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.

These are the teams playing this week who lost ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

-- College Football: Louisiana Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia and Western Kentucky.
-- NFL: New York Jets and Washington Redskins.

FYI: there are no games on this week’s card involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win.

Who’s Hot And Who’s Not

From a weekly NFL column that I author in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends on this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

-- Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 9-1 SU and ATS in his NFL career in division games when his team is off a SU and ATS loss in its last game.

-- Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in his NFL career on Monday nights in games in which his team is off a win of six or more points.

-- The New Orleans Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine Sunday night appearances.

-- New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is 5-0-1 ATS in his NFL career in division games off his first victory of the season.

-- Teams who play and allow 35 or more points against Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers – the Carolina Panthers last week - are 0-7 SU and ATS in their next game.

-- The San Francisco 49ers are 16-2 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.

Stat Of The Week

The San Diego Chargers are 23-3-1 ATS all-time versus the AFC South, including 10-0-1 the last eleven games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Giants at Redskins
By Kevin Rogers

It’s seems like a battle of last-place teams getting together in Washington on Thursday night, but the winner of the Giants/Redskins game is back to 2-2 and right in the NFC East race. The Eagles have rallied for three victories to start 3-0, but have a tough trip to San Francisco on Sunday, while the Cowboys are short home underdogs to the Saints looking for their third straight win. Now, New York and Washington are trying to show its worth in the NFC East at the quarter mark of the season.

The Giants finally broke through the win column in last Sunday’s 30-17 victory over previously unbeaten Houston as one-point home favorites. New York dominated in spite of losing a fumble at the Houston 10-yard line in the first quarter, while botching a field goal attempt early in the second quarter. But, the Giants scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the first half to take a 14-0 advantage and never look back. New York got its running game going as Rashad Jennings rushed for 176 yards and a touchdown after racking up just 110 yards in the first two losses to Detroit and Arizona.

The Redskins have been up and down through three weeks of the season, starting with a 14-3 defeat to the Texans as short road underdogs. Washington turned it around in its home opener by routing Jacksonville, 41-10 as five-point favorites, while racking up 449 yards of offense. However, the team lost quarterback Robert Griffin III to an ankle injury as Kirk Cousins stepped up to throw for 250 yards and two touchdown passes.

Cousins remains the starter at quarterback for Washington until Griffin is healthy, as the Redskins scored just one touchdown in 13 drives with the former Baylor star under center. In last week’s loss to the Eagles, Cousins put up a career-best 427 yards passing, but the Redskins couldn’t hold onto a 17-7 lead in a 37-34 setback at Lincoln Financial Field. Washington covered as four-point underdogs thanks to a Roy Helu touchdown run with 4:16 left to get within the number, while the ‘over’ of 50 ½ easily hit.

The Giants have owned this series since 2008, winning nine of the past 12 meetings with the Redskins. Last season, New York swept the two-game set, with both victories coming in the final month. Tom Coughlin’s team picked up a 24-17 triumph as one-point favorites at FedEx Field in Week 13 despite accumulating just 286 yards of offense. Three weeks later, the Giants salvaged the regular season finale in a 20-6 rout of the Redskins at Met Life Stadium as 3 ½-point favorites. Prior to 2013, Washington covered the previous five meetings, while the Redskins were last listed as a home favorite over New York in 2007, a 24-17 defeat as 3 ½-point ‘chalk.’

Primetime games have been an ‘over’ bettors’ dream this season, going 8-2 to the ‘over.’ On Thursday night games, the ‘over’ is 2-1, including the Falcons trouncing the Buccaneers last week, 56-14 on a 47 total. All three home favorites have easily covered in Thursday night action as the Seahawks, Ravens, and Falcons have all won by double-digits, while limiting opponents to a combined 36 points.

Since October 2008, the Redskins own a 5-11 ATS record as a home favorite, dating back to the dreaded Jim Zorn era. Making that number a little more relevant to what the roster currently looks like, Washington is 5-3 ATS since the start of 2012 in this role. The last two seasons have been a major difference against division opponents, as the Redskins went 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS inside the NFC East in 2012, while going backwards in 2013 with an 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS mark.

The Giants were blown out in the season opener at Detroit, but New York has cashed in 12 of its past 20 games in the role of a road underdog since 2011. Last season, the Giants won two of three road games against NFC East foes, while posting a 5-3 SU/ATS record in its previous eight away contests within the division.

Washington is currently listed as a 3 ½-point favorite at most books, while the total is set between 45 ½ and 46. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST from FedEx Field and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves
By JASON LOGAN

It’s Week 4 of the NFL season and football bettors are starting to get a tighter grip on the layout of the league. And that means more opinions – often going against what oddsmakers think – making for some interesting moves in the middle of the week.

We speak with Nick Bogdanovich, head of trading for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, about the biggest adjustments to the Week 4 odds and where those games could end up come kickoff.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins – Open: -4.5, Move: -3.5

Action on this game has varied from place to place. Some online books have moved as much as a point in favor of the Giants for this NFC East Thursday Night Football game, while others have taken Washington money after opening at a field goal, dealing Redskins -3.5. Whatever the reason, it seems like the half-point hook is what the market dictates.

“Obviously, this is a rivalry game and a big divisional game for these teams,” Bogdanovich . “The Giants looked impressive last week and so did Washington. Right now, we’re heavy on the Redskins. Maybe those bettors didn’t drink the Giants punch?”

Detroit Lions at New York Jets – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

This non-conference clash opened as low as a pick’em, but early money jumped on Detroit – not so much for their impressive win over Green Bay, but due to the Jets’ terrible showing on Monday Night Football. New York was just 1 for 6 in the red zone and wasted plenty of scoring chances thanks to three turnovers (four fumbles, one lost).

“People tend to bet what they’ve seen last. And Detroit looked great against Green Bay while New York was Turnover City against the Bears,” says Bogdanovich, who opened Detroit -1 and moved to -1.5. “We’ll likely need the Jets pretty good by the time the bell sounds on this one.”

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears – Open: -1, Move: +1.5

This line has jumped the fence with early action from the wiseguys settling on Green Bay, despite their 0-2-1 ATS start to the season. As of Wednesday afternoon, books haven’t seen much money on Chicago, which has won two in a row in primetime games since losing to Buffalo in Week 1.

“It must be all pro plays because we have everything on Green Bay right now,” Bogdanovich says. “There’s nothing on Chicago and we’ll likely need the Bears. They won two isolated games on Sunday night and Monday but the pros are on Green Bay and we’ll need Chicago to win something Sunday.”

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -4, Move: -5.5

When it comes to lines for the 49ers in Nevada, you get dealt two very different sets depending on where you are. Books in Las Vegas have a tighter number between these two NFC heavyweights, but that number could be much bigger if you move up north – closer to the Bay Area and a ton of money on San Francisco.

“This is a very interesting game. Philly is 3-0 and was hyped coming into the season, but while this isn’t a must-win game for Frisco, it’s a big game,” Bogdanovich . “It’s a later game on Sunday, a marquee game. We normally need against Frisco in these spots but I couldn’t tell you which way the money is going to go. This is the game I want to watch the most.”

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans – Open: -4, Move: -3

The early money on this question mark of a game has leaned toward Buffalo. However, nobody really knows which one of these teams is for real. Both the Bills and Texans come in at 2-1 and off bad losses in Week 3.

“One of these teams is going to be 3-1 and the other is going to say, ‘Oh, here we go again.’” says Bogdanovich. “There’s a little more on Buffalo than Houston at this point.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday Night Football: Giants at Redskins

New York Giants at Washington (-3.5, 46)

The New York Giants finally got the offense untracked and broke into the victory column but now face a quick turnaround and a matchup with a bitter division rival when they visit the Washington Redskins on Thursday night. New York rebounded from back-to-back losses to Detroit and Arizona with a 30-17 victory over Houston. "This was huge for us, knowing we had to get this game and get this one under our belts with a short week and not wanting to look ahead," Giants wideout Victor Cruz said.

Washington dropped a shootout in a 37-34 defeat at NFC East foe Philadelphia to drop to 1-2 despite ranking second in the league with an average of 444 total yards. Losing Robert Griffin III to an ankle injury hasn't slowed down the Redskins, who saw backup Kirk Cousins throw for a career-high 427 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles, prompting speculation of whether the former will reclaim his job when healthy. “Crazy things have happened in NFL,” Washington coach Jay Gruden told the New York Daily News. “I’m not going to discount anything.”

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Redskins as 3.5-point favorites. The total opened 45 and is up one point to 46.

INJURY REPORT: Giants - LB Jon Beason (Questionable, foot), WR Odell Beckham (Out indefinitely, hamstring). Redskins - WR DeSean Jackson (Probable, shoulder), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, hamstring), DE Jason Hatcher (Questionable, hamstring), CB DeAngelo Hall (IR, achilles).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph and there is a small 10 percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+1.5) - Redskins (+1.75) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins -2.75

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Redskins outplayed the Eagles by 132 yards in last week’s 3-point shootout loss at Philadelphia while the Giants rolled past the Texans in a much-needed 13-point home victory over Houston. Washington will look to extend the success of Thursday night's home teams (3-0 this season with every win by 20 or more points) while New York takes a 6-0 ATS mark away in games off back-to-back hem games into this contest." Marc Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “We opened at -4.5 and have seen nothing but sharp money on the Giants. I don’t think it will drop to the key field goal number however. After both offenses impressed last week, bettors are hammering the over to the tune of 86 percent. If the total gets too high, my contention would be that the under has great value." John Lester.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (1-2, SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): New York raised a few eyebrows in the offseason when it handed a four-year, $14 million deal to free agent Rashad Jennings, but the veteran running back sparked the win over Houston by rushing for a career-best 176 yards. Buoyed by the improved running game, Eli Manning threw for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a mistake-free outing after tossing a pair of interceptions in each of the first two games. Cruz halted a 12-game touchdown drought and had only his second 100-yard performance in the span as the Giants put up 30 points on a Houston defense that had allowed a total of 20 in the first two games. New York's defense also responded by picking off its first three passes of the season.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Washington's defense was hit hard by injuries in the setback to Philadelphia, losing cornerback DeAngelo Hall (Achilles' tendon) and safety Duke Ihenacho (foot) for the season. Linebacker Brian Orapko, among 11 players who were limited in practice Monday, is dealing with a torn ligament in his middle finger but said he plans to play against the Giants wearing a hard cast. Pierre Garcon bounced back from a one-catch game versus Jacksonville with 11 receptions for 138 yards while DeSean Jackson played through an ailing shoulder to also go over 100 yards and match Garcon with a touchdown. Alfred Morris has rushed for 253 yards on the season but is averaged only 3.6 yards per carry the past two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Giants are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in September.
* Under is 5-1 in Redskins last six vs. NFC East.

CONSENSUS: 64 percent of wagers are backing the Redskins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ideal conditions for Giants-Redskins matchup
Andrew Avery

The weather should be rather ideal in Landover, Maryland as the Washington Redskins host the New York Giants in an NFC East rivalry on Thursday Night Football this week.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at around seven mph during the game.

Oddsmakers have Washington as 3.5-point home faves with a total of 45.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Josh McCown (thumb) will try to play, but Mike Glennon likely to start
By Josh Katzowitz

After hurting his thumb last Thursday vs. the Falcons, it was reported that Buccaneers quarterback Josh McCown could miss several weeks because of the injury.

But hope -- a little sliver of it, anyway -- remains that he possibly could return to the field this Sunday vs. the Steelers.

Assuming McCown doesn't play, though, the team will turn back to Mike Glennon, who completed 17 of 24 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown vs. the Falcons.

Coach Lovie Smith said he still considers McCown to be the team's starting quarterback, but this still could be a good chance for Glennon to impress the coaching staff -- something he apparently hadn't done when Smith first got the job and almost immediately said Glennon would not be the starter.

When that happened, Glennon told reporters he tried to stay positive but that it was an adjustment going from playing full-time to sitting on the bench. But now it's likely he'll start, and Glennon said McCown is trying to make his life easier.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Thursday Night Football'

New York Giants and Washington Redskins kick-off week four action at FedEx Field Thursday night. The Giants' offense finally kicking in this past week defeated Houston 30-17 as Eli Manning did not turn the ball over while completing 21 of 28 passes for 234 yards with two touchdowns. Rashad Jennings logged career highs in both rushing attempts (34), rushing yards (176) with one major. As for Washington, despite a 37-34 setback in Philadelphia there were plenty of positives for the squad in the loss. Kirk Cousins in his first start replacing injured RG III tossed 427 yards for three touchdowns. Redskins' run stop unit held Eagles to 54 rushing yards on the day and reigning rushing champion LeSean McCoy to just 22 yards. A couple of interesting NFL betting trends. Giants have struggled cashing tickets vs a division opponent in September posting a 1-3-1 ATS while Redskins have thrived in the situation going 4-1 ATS last five, 6-2 ATS last eight. Giants have been poor bets last 13 away posting a 4-9 ATS mark and hit the field 2-5-1 ATS L8 on the road as underdogs of 3.5 or less. Redskins enter 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points and have a prefect 4-0 ATS stretch going in week-four. New York won and cover both meetings last year but remain a cash draining 3-5 ATS last eight encounters with Washington.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Giants (1-2) @ Redskins (1-2) — Only once in their last eight visits here have Giants lost by more than a point; teams split last six series games, after Giants had won previous six. Big Blue is 11-7 in last 18 games as a road dog; they swept Skins 24-17/20-6 LY; they ran ball for 193 yards, passed for 226 in win over Houston last week; they forced first three turnovers of season- their TD drives were 83-2-29 yards, which is how upsets happen. Washington scored 75 points (nine TDs on 24 drives, 5.4 ppd in red zone) in Cousins’ two starts; he threw for 427 yards in Philly last week. Redskins are 14-29 on 3rd down in Cousins’ two starts; they're 5-4 in last nine games as a home favorite. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread so far this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

NY GIANTS (1 - 2) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 9/25/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-82 ATS (-36.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Trends

NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games
NY Giants are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Washington is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against NY Giants

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League

Mets-Nationals
Gee is 1-2, 4.26 in his last three starts. Wheeler is 2-1, 3.94 in his last three.
Gonzalez is 3-1, 3.86 in his last four starts. Fister is 3-0, 2.29 in his last three.

Mets won four of their last six games.
Washington won nine of its last ten games.

Eight of last nine Washington games stayed under total.

Pirates-Braves
Volquez is 1-0, 1.85 in his last five starts.
Hale was 2-0, 2.86 in five starts back in first half of season.

Pirates won 11 of their last 14 games.
Atlanta lost ten of its last twelve games.

Seven of last nine Pittsburgh games stayed under.

Brewers-Reds
Gallardo is 0-1, 1.38 in his last two starts.
Holmgren is 1-1, 2.25 in his last two starts.

Brewers lost five of their last seven games.
Cincinnati lost seven of its last nine games.

Last eight Milwaukee games stayed under the total.

Phillies-Marlins
Buchanan is 0-1, 3.32 in his last three starts.
Koehler is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts.

Phillies lost seven of their last ten games.
Miami lost five of its last six games.

Last five Miami games stayed under the total

Padres-Giants
Cashner is 3-0, 1.50 in his last three starts.
Petit is 1-2, 4.97 in his last four starts.

San Diego won eight of its last ten games.
Giants lost eight of their last eleven games.

Under is 5-2-1 in last eight San Francisco games.


American League

Mariners-Blue Jays
Wilhelmsen is a relief pitcher; this is a bullpen game for Seattle- he allowed two runs in 2.2 IP in a similar game in July, his only MLB start.
Norris is making first MLB start; he allowed two runs in 3.1 IP in four relief appearances, was 3-1, 3.18 in four AAA starts; he started year in A ball. .

Mariners lost five in row, nine of their last twelve games.
Toronto won its last three games, scoring 25 runs.

Seven of last ten Seattle games went over the total.

Royals-White Sox
Shields is 2-1, 1.75 in his last five starts.
Quintana is 3-0, 2.30 in his last four starts.

Royals won three of their last four games.
White Sox won four of their last five home games.

Under is 3-1-1 in last five White Sox games.

Twins-Tigers
May is 3-1, 5.96 in his last four starts.
Scherzer is 2-0, 2.62 in his last three starts.

Minnesota won five of its last eight games.
Detroit won four of its last six games.


Under is 4-0-1 in last five Detroit games.

Orioles-Bronx
Gausman is 0-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
Kuroda is 1-0, 2.63 in his last couple starts.

Orioles won seven of their last ten games.
Bronx Bombers lost last two games, allowing 14 runs.

Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Gausman starts.

Rays-Red Sox
Hellickson is 0-2, 6.94 in his last five starts.
Webster is 1-0, 2.31 in his last two starts.

Tampa Bay lost four of its last six games.
Red Sox lost five of their last eight games.

Last three Tampa Bay games went over total.

A's-Rangers
Hammel is 1-1, 2.36 in his last four starts.
Lewis is 1-3, 5.54 in his last four starts.

A's lost 14 of their last 21 games.
Rangers won 11 of their last 12 games.

Six of last nine Oakland games went over total.


Interleague game
None


Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Gee 9-12, Wheeler 15-16; Gonzalez 15-11 Fister 17-7
-- Gallardo 12-19; Holmberg 2-2
-- Buchanan 8-12; Koehler 14-16
-- Volquez 18-14; Hale 3-2
-- Cashner 10-8; Petit 6-5

-- Wilhelmsen 0-1; Norris 0-0
-- Gausman 10-9; Kuroda 14-17
-- May 3-5; Scherzer 23-9
-- Hellickson 3-9; Webster 6-4
-- Hammel 10-7/2-9; Lewis 12-16
-- Shields 20-13; Quintana 12-19

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Gee 9-12, Wheeler 9-31; Gonzalez 15-11 Fister 6-24
-- Gallardo 9-31; Holmberg 1-4
-- Buchanan 2-20; Koehler 5-30
-- Volquez 8-32; Hale 3-5
-- Cashner 5-18; Petit 3-11

-- Wilhelmsen 0-1; Norris 0-0
-- Gausman 4-19; Kuroda 12-31
-- May 2-8; Scherzer 7-32
-- Hellickson 2-12; Webster 2-10
-- Hammel 9-28; Lewis 11-28
-- Shields 8-33; Quintana 7-31

Umpires
-- NY-Wsh-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Gibson games. Eight of last eleven Rackley games went over.
-- Pitt-Atl-- 13 of 19 Layne games went over the total.
-- Phil-Mia-- Last four Hernandez games stayed under the total.
-- Mil-Cin-- Five of last seven Scott games went over the total.

-- Sea-Tor-- Favorites won nine of last twelve Eddings games
-- TB-Bos-- Home side won 10 in row, 18 of last 21 Diaz games
-- Balt-NY-- Favorites won five of last six Hamari games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 3:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$3125 - CLAIMING $4,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 MISTER BARNETT N 7/5


# 3 BORN THAT WAY 2/1


# 6 IDEAL GIFT 6/1

All signs point to MISTER BARNETT N for the pick. Overall percentages look very nice. Can't throw him out of the picture. Dilloian knows this standardbred well. Outstanding in the money results when starting together. BORN THAT WAY - Worth considering here given the statistics in the speed rating department alone. This horse has been squaring off versus some of the most competitive company in this field of starters recently. IDEAL GIFT - If effort in the most recent race is any indication, this standardbred will have a very respectable shot here. High last race speed figure. The consortium has Ginsburg on its list of drivers who are winning with a flourish of late. Last 30 days win pct is excellent.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Red Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 12 - Post: 10:18 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$10000 - LATE CLOSER #2 TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES NW $10,000 LIFE THRU AND INCLUDING 9-1-2014 SPONSORED BY: MARY ELLEN & DAVID H MCDUFFEE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 BEWITCHING BEAUTY 8/1


# 1 CATHERINE'S MELODY 3/1


# 8 MUSCLES MY WAY 15/1

Look no further than BEWITCHING BEAUTY as the wager in here especially at 8/1. Look for Avritt and this nice horse to take the whole enchilada in this contest. Exemplary in the money figure for the trainer/horse team. If performance in the last race is any indication, this nice horse will have a very respectable shot in this event. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. CATHERINE'S MELODY - Most likely the class of the race with an average rating of 74. A nice choice. Had one of the best TrackMaster SRs of the group of animals in her last affair. I'd recommend using in your plays. MUSCLES MY WAY - This filly getting the ultimate prize wouldn't be impossible, a chance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $4950 Class Rating: 62

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS AND NO GANADORES DE $15,000 DESDE EL 24 SEPTIEMBRE 2013. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 14 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 PRODIGIOSA 7/2


# 4 ESPERANZA DEL SUR 3/1


# 3 GOTCHA MARY 5/2


PRODIGIOSA has a formidable shot to take this race. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this filly a competitive shot. She looks respectable in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. ESPERANZA DEL SUR - This filly looks good for this race since Colon has a sharp winning percentage with horses going this distance. Posted a very good Equibase Speed Figure last time out. GOTCHA MARY - Could best this group of horses based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 58 - of her last effort. This filly looks good for this event since Lisboa has a sharp win percent with horses going this distance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 FACUNDO 3/1


# 2 FLAT IN CHARGE 4/1


# 1 HAPPY HARVEY 10/1


FACUNDO has a respectable shot to take this race. Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a wager in here. Has been running solidly lately and will almost certainly be on or close to the lead early on. Could beat this group of horses given the 72 Equibase Speed Figure earned in his last outing. HAPPY HARVEY - Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this event. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this entrant a definite contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Arlington - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 90

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 PRINCE CHEVAL (ML=7/2)
#2 TOEWS (ML=4/1)
#6 SAY SONNY (ML=9/2)


PRINCE CHEVAL - This horse could be tough this time around, especially since Graham rode last out and now should be acquainted with this one. This gelding faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. TOEWS - This thoroughbred coming off a strong performance in the last month or so is a win candidate in my humble opinion. SAY SONNY - Gelding was in versus 'open company' on August 29th and should find this group easier to deal with. A racer coming back this quickly after a nice outing is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BUBBLE UP (ML=2/1), #7 ARCHYBDANCING (ML=8/1), #4 SILVER PRINCE (ML=8/1),

BUBBLE UP - I don't normally play a favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. ARCHYBDANCING - Hard to play at 8/1 odds after the most recent outings. No triumphs for this entrant at Arlington. SILVER PRINCE - Don't feel this racer will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was quite unimpressive when compared with today's class figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - PRINCE CHEVAL - Consider this. Finished seventh on the soft turf last time out. With better footing today, I'd expect a 25 percent improvement in class ability.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #1 PRINCE CHEVAL to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:15pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 103

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1A DAZZLED SAINT (ML=9/2)
#10 JASIZZLE (ML=5/1)
#7 TRIPLE CROSS (ML=5/1)
#4 ALOHA DADDY (ML=8/1)


DAZZLED SAINT - I have to believe Bourke is making a good move here. This gelding can only benefit from the shorter trip. I like a thoroughbred that manages to be on the board as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Presque Isle Downs. Could add another win right here in this race. He has the topmost earnings per start. Take a good look at this horse. JASIZZLE - Coming off a fourth place finish at Mountaineer, some may skip over this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty good M/L odds today. Strong return on investment for this jockey and handler twosome. I'm optimistic this gelding will run well today. Last work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. TRIPLE CROSS - You always have to be on the prowl for money making rider/handler duos; we have it right here. ALOHA DADDY - Have to give this gelding a fair chance. Ran a solid race in the last race within the last month or so. A gelding like this one, almost always in the money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 FLEET EAGLE (ML=4/1), #1 HOLY HIGHWAY (ML=9/2), #5 STORM ON BYE (ML=6/1),

FLEET EAGLE - The Brain cautions me to stay away from ponies in sprint races that haven't hit the board in sprint events of late. HOLY HIGHWAY - Hard to play at 9/2 odds after the last two efforts. Hasn't hit the board in any short distance events recently. Doubtful to see him doing it in today's event either. STORM ON BYE - Doubtful that the fig she earned on Aug 3rd will be enough in this clash. Last effort was too nice. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'performance bounce' this time.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #1 Entry on the nose if you can get odds of 5/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #7 - BELMONT PARK - 4:02 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS INNER TURF THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $77,000.00 PURSE

#7 SANDY'Z SLEW
#1 ISN'TLOVEJUSTGRAND
#4 SHATAK
#3 KNOCKHER OFF

#7 SANDY'Z SLEW takes a class drop (-8), and is both the overall speed and pace profile leader in this allowance field this afternoon sprinting at today's distance of 6.0 furlongs on the turf. He's hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 2nd race back. Jockey Junior Alvarado and Trainer Richard Schosberg send him to the post ... they've "whacked the tote board" with 51% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #1 ISN'TLOVEJUSTGRAND has also turned in a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in his last five starts, hitting the board in three, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 5th race back.