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Preview: Blue Jays (79-65) at Angels (63-82)

Game: 1
Venue: Angel Stadium
Date: September 15, 2016 10:05 PM EDT

ANAHEIM, Calif. -- The Toronto Blue Jays will continue their playoff quest behind their accidental ace when they start a four-game series against the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday night at Angel Stadium.
Left-hander J.A. Happ (18-4, 3.33 ERA) will take the mound for the Blue Jays, who enter the game in the thick of the race for both the American League East championship and a wild-card spot.
Toronto trails the first-place Boston Red Sox by two games in the division and is one game behind the Baltimore Orioles for the top wild-card position. At the same time, the Blue Jays are trying to repel the Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, all of whom lie within two games of the second wild card.
Entering this year, Happ owned a career record of 62-61. His best season came in 2009, when he went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA and two shutouts for the Philadelphia Phillies, winners of the National League pennant. Since then, however, Happ was traded four times in the next six seasons and compiled a 42-54 record through last year's trading deadline, when the Seattle Mariners sent him to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Joining the Pirates provided the impetus for Happ's resurgence.
Once pitching coach Ray Searage adjusted his delivery, Happ went 7-2, forged a 1.85 ERA and struck out 69 batters in 63 1/3 innings while issuing just 13 walks. That performance motivated the Blue Jays to sign the left-handed free agent in November to a three-year contract worth $36 million.
The 33-year-old veteran not only provided the stability that the Blue Jays' rotation needed once David Price signed a free agent contract with the Boston Red Sox, but he also is making his own case to win the Cy Young Award.
Happ won 11 consecutive decisions from June 11 to Aug. 17. He ranks second in the American League with a career-best 18 victories while sharing 10th place in ERA. The left-hander also is holding opposing batters to a .235 average, and he needs just three strikeouts to set a career high in that category.
"The thing I'm most satisfied and happy with is that I feel the hard work is paying off, getting to a place mentally where I feel comfortable," Happ told the Globe and Mail. "I may have pressed a little bit more than I do now. When you press, all of a sudden you're trying to be too perfect and you're down 2-0 to the batter and you're not making your pitches."
One factor in Happ's ability to maintain his perspective is his newborn son, J.J.
"Honestly, I had my first child this offseason," the left-hander told the Globe and Mail. "I go home and instead of being selfish and worrying about me and moping and being upset, I get to see his face and it changes everything."
The Angels will counter with right-hander Daniel Wright, who seeks his first major league victory. He will make his second start since being acquired off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds on Sept. 4.
In his only previous appearance with Los Angeles, Wright allowed four runs on six hits, including two home runs, in five innings but received no decision Saturday night in the Angels' 8-5 loss to the Texas Rangers. The 25-year-old rookie also hit two batters, walked one and struck out two.
"He really showed the ability to spin the ball," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. "I think his fastball's sneaky. He got into some good spots. And really, the first pitch of the game, (Carlos) Gomez just ambushes him (for a homer), and then he hung a slider later."
Wright, 25, went 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA in four games (two starts) for the Reds this year to begin his big-league career. He will be facing Toronto for the first time.
Happ opposed the Angels once this year, allowing four runs in five innings during a 6-3 home loss on Aug. 25. The defeat continued his career-long trend: He is 0-5 with a 7.83 ERA in five starts against the Angels.
 
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'Blue Birds'

Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels September 15, 10:05 EST

Toronto Blue Jays hitting a rough patch during September have won just three of their twelve games platting 3.5 runs/game with the pitching staff surrendering a whopping 6.2 runs/contest. Blue Birds hoping to get better results with the club's top hurler, lefty J.A. Happ entering with 18 wins in 28 assignments and a profitable 21-7 team start record. Jays have opened -$1.65 road road favorites.

Even with Happ doing their bidding, Jays with its struggling offense are a risky proposition. The fact Jays have flailed away recently on the road (1-5), have not responded in Happ's last three road series opener's (0-3) and sport an 0-4 skid in the hurlers starts vs Halos is more reason to either avoid this game or go with home underdog Angels.
 
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Preview: Cardinals (76-69) at Giants (77-68)

Game: 1
Venue: AT&T Park
Date: September 15, 2016 10:15 PM EDT

SAN FRANCISCO -- The St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants have trusted veteran pitchers ready to go in the opener of a critical four-game series Thursday night.

In a rematch of a June 3 duel in St. Louis, won 5-1 by San Francisco, the Cardinals will send out Adam Wainwright to face Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto.

At stake is wild-card positioning in the National League playoff hunt, with the Giants (76-67) entering the series in the top spot, a half-game ahead of the New York Mets (77-69) and one game up on the Cardinals (76-69).

The game will be played at AT&T Park in San Francisco, which doesn't bother the Cardinals one bit. St. Louis has a far better record on the road (43-28) than at home (33-41), which is where the Cardinals beat the Giants two out of three in the June series.

The Cardinals are coming off 7-0 home loss to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday to complete a 3-4 homestand against the Milwaukee Brewers and Cubs.

Brandon Moss expects a different mind-set when the club enters enemy territory on Thursday night.

"We're pressing a little at home, trying to right the ship. Obviously it's not having gone well," he said after Wednesday's loss. "We're putting a little too much pressure on us. But when we go on the road, we play a little more loose, a little more relaxed, and hopefully that continues."

Wainwright had one of the wins on the homestand, a 5-1 victory Saturday over the Brewers. He has won both his September starts.

The veteran has gone 5-6 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 career outings (11 starts) against the Giants.

The Cardinals are used to seeing Cueto, a former NL Central rival with the Cincinnati Reds.

The 15-game winner has been just a six-game winner in his career against the Cardinals, going 6-8 with a 3.88 ERA in 21 career meetings.

Cueto can only hope for more offensive support than the Giants gave Madison Bumgarner in Wednesday's 3-1 loss to the San Diego Padres.

San Francisco got only four hits in the game, capping a three-game sweep by the Padres in which the Giants hit just 21-for-97 (.216).

"Now we're playing a team we're battling with," noted Giants manager Bruce Bochy, hoping the raised stakes inspire a better performance from his team. "We've got to recover. These guys have done a good job of that (in the past)."

The Giants are just 20-35 since the All-Star break, the worst record in the majors.

"The second half, this is something I've never seen before," Bumgarner observed after Wednesday's loss. "The only thing to do is come out (Thursday) and try to win. It's tough, but it's the only thing you can do."

While the Giants and Cardinals are locking horns, the Mets will be hosting the team with the worst record in the American League, the Minnesota Twins, in a three-game series that begins Friday.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (82-63), who have opened a five-game lead over the Giants in the NL West, open a four-game set against the last-place Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night.
 
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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, September 15, 2016, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Very interesting news from USA Today on Tuesday in that the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers were just a few minutes from completing a trade that would have sent Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, who is from the Los Angeles area, to the Dodgers for outfielder Yasiel Puig, pitcher Brandon McCarthy and prospects. The clubs couldn't quite finalize the deal before the Aug. 1 deadline, but it was so close that Brewers told Braun about it and to expect something. Braun grew up rooting for the Dodgers and absolutely would accept that deal, while Puig would have no choice. USA Today reports this should happen in some form this offseason -- you know, unless Puig leads the Dodgers to a World Series title. It would be a good move by the Brewers as they would still have a good outfielder to take Braun's spot but they get younger and cheaper. The Dodgers get the best player in the deal, and they don't care about money.


Twins at Tigers (-142, 9.5)

First game of day with a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. It's also the Twins' final game in Motown this season. The only reason to watch the Twins these days is to see if second baseman Brian Dozier can win the home run title. He is just the fourth second baseman to reach the 40-homer plateau. Dozier is 1-for-5 in his career off Thursday's Detroit starter Mike Pelfrey (4-9, 4.76). This was to be rookie Michael Fulmer's turn, but he was pushed back to the weekend against Cleveland. Manager Brad Ausmus chose Pelfrey, who had been demoted to the bullpen, over Buck Farmer. Pelfrey pitched for the Twins from 2013-15 but hasn't pitched in the majors this season since July 31. He is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts against the Twins. Minnesota lefty Hector Santiago (11-8, 4.75) comes off a no-decision vs. the Indians, allowing one run and five hits over seven innings. He has a 1.86 ERA over his past three. While with the Angels, Santiago took a no-decision vs. the Tigers on May 31, allowing six runs in 6.2 innings. J.D. Martinez is 4-for-12 off him with two homers.

Key trends: The Twins are 1-4 in Santiago's past five vs. teams with a winning record. The Tigers are 6-1 in Pelfrey's past seven at home. The "over/under" has gone over in five of Santiago's past seven. The over is 6-0 in Pelfrey's past six at home.

Early lean: Twins and over.

Indians at White Sox (+138, 9.5)

A 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch and Cleveland's final game on the South Side of Chicago in 2016. The Tribe are thin in the rotation due to injuries and throw rookie Mike Clevinger (2-2, 5.01) here. He was used in a bullpen-by-committee start Saturday at Minnesota and allowed a run and two hits over four innings. He is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in two outings, one start, vs. the White Sox this year. Todd Frazier is 2-for-4 off him with a solo homer. Adam Eaton is 0-for-4. Chicago's James Shields (5-17, 6.01) clearly won't be taking the opt-out clause in his contract this offseason. He wouldn't draw flies in free agency. The Sox have lost Shields' past five, although he actually had a quality start last time out vs. Kansas City. Shields was destroyed in his lone start this year vs. Cleveland, allowing eight runs and seven hits in 1.2 innings on June 18. Mike Napoli is 7-for-27 off him with two homers. Francisco Lindor is 2-for-2.

Key trends: The White Sox are 0-5 in Shields' past five vs. the AL Central. The over is 6-2 in his past eight vs. the division.

Early lean: Indians and over.

Yankees at Red Sox (+100, 9)

Should have live betting as it's on the MLB Network. The Bombers start ace Masahiro Tanaka (13-4, 3.04). He hasn't lost since Aug. 2. Tanaka dominated the Rays on Saturday in allowing a run and five hits with 10 strikeouts over 7.1 innings. He has given up just five earned runs in his past five outings. Tanaka is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA this year vs. Boston. Jackie Bradley Jr. is just 2-for-16 career off him. Mookie Betts is 3-for-15. David Ortiz has a homer in 21 at-bats. Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (2-7, 4.70) looks for his first win since July 22. He lost in Toronto on Saturday, giving up three runs over six. Rodriguez is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two starts vs. the Yankees. Jacoby Ellsbury is 5-for-17 off him with two solo homers. Mark Teixeira is 0-for-7.

Key trends: The Yankees are 6-1 in their past seven vs. a lefty. The Sox are 0-7 in Rodriguez's past seven at home. The under is 5-2 in his past seven there.

Early lean: Yankees and under.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks (+185, 9.5)

I know there has been one pitcher in MLB history to have back-to-back no-hitters. Has there ever been one with back-to-back perfect outings of at least seven innings? Perhaps Dodgers lefty Rich Hill can be the first on Thursday in this series opener. Hill (12-3, 1.80) threw seven perfect innings with nine strikeouts on Saturday in Miami but was pulled controversially by Manager Dave Roberts, who said he was worried about Hill's blister problem reappearing. But Hill said afterward he wasn't having problems and he was furious in the dugout immediately after being pulled. The Marlins would get two hits off the Dodgers' bullpen. Hill's outing is the longest in MLB history a starting pitcher had lasted before being removed after retiring everybody he had faced. Roberts did admit he might have done differently earlier in the season but that he had to ensure Hill's health for the playoffs. Blister problems knocked him out for a month earlier this season. Hill hasn't allowed a run in three starts with L.A. He has never faced Arizona. The Snakes' Archie Bradley (6-9, 5.10) lasted only three innings on Saturday vs. the Giants, allowing five runs and eight hits. He is 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts vs. the Dodgers this year. Joc Pederson has two solo homers off him in five at-bats.

Key trends: The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Bradley's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 12-1-1 in his past 14 at home.

Early lean: Dodgers and under.

Cardinals at Giants (-150, 7)

Huge wild-card implications in this series and it's quite possible Thursday's pitching matchup could be the wild-card one if the Giants have to use ace Madison Bumgarner on the final day of the regular season to sew up that playoff spot. The Cards go with Adam Wainwright (11-8, 4.45). He has been up-and-down this year but cruised against the Brewers on Saturday in allowing a run and six hits over eight innings with seven strikeouts. He's 5-6 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 games (11 starts) in his career against San Francisco. Hunter Pence hits .275 off him with two homers and 12 strikeouts in 51 at-bats. Buster Posey is 3-for-14 off him. San Francisco's Johnny Cueto (15-5, 2.90) got his first win in four starts Saturday in Arizona, allowing two runs and three hits in seven innings. Cueto won in St. Louis on June 3 with six innings pitched and no earned runs allowed. Yadier Molina is a .256 hitter against him with two homers and eight RBIs in 39 at-bats.

Key trends: The Giants are 5-1 in Cueto's past six vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-2-1 in his past eight in Game 1 of a series. The Cards are 2-5 in Wainwright's past seven in San Francisco.

Early lean: Giants and under.
 
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Thursday’s six-pack

Questions, questions……we always have questions………

— Why can’t we nominate better candidates for President?

— Why can’t NFL quarterbacks call their own plays? (a few do)

— I asked someone the other night what kids learn in grade school now, and was told “Common Core”. What the hell is that? (OK, I googled it so now I kind of know, but why weren’t all kids taught the same things?)

— Why doesn’t MLB Network show some Japanese games, so we can see what they look like? I’ve never seen one.

— If you asked 20 high school kids what a phone booth is, how many would know the right answer?

— Major league umpires are on road seven months at a time, except for All-Star break and a vacation; do they have actual homes?
 
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Thursday’s six-pack

Questions, questions……we always have questions………

— Why can’t we nominate better candidates for President?

— Why can’t NFL quarterbacks call their own plays? (a few do)

— I asked someone the other night what kids learn in grade school now, and was told “Common Core”. What the hell is that? (OK, I googled it so now I kind of know, but why weren’t all kids taught the same things?)

— Why doesn’t MLB Network show some Japanese games, so we can see what they look like? I’ve never seen one.

— If you asked 20 high school kids what a phone booth is, how many would know the right answer?

— Major league umpires are on road seven months at a time, except for All-Star break and a vacation; do they have actual homes?
 
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MLB

Thursday’s games

National League

Pirates @ Phillies
Kuhl is 0-3, 5.12 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Pirates won four of his five road starts.

Eickhoff is 2-1, 2.63 in his last four starts (under 4-0). Phillies are 8-6 in his home starts.

Pirates lost 13 of last 16 games; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight games. Phillies lost five of last eight games; under is 8-0-3 in their last 11 games.

Brewers @ Cubs
Nelson is 1-2, 6.58 in his last five starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Brewers are 2-8 in his road starts.

Montgomery is 0-0, 4.42 in his last four starts (over 3-1) for Chicago.

Milwaukee is 9-5 in its last 14 games, 7-16 in road series openers. Five of their last six games stayed under. Cubs are 10-1 in last 11 home games; they can clinch playoff spot here. Chicago is 21-3 in home series openers. Six of Cubs’ last seven games stayed under the total.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Hill has tossed 19 scoreless innings in three starts for LA (under 3-0).

Bradley is 2-2, 6.90 in his last six starts; seven of his last eight went over.

Dodgers are 8-3 in last 11 games, 8-15 in road series openers. Seven of LA’s last eight games stayed under. Arizona won its last three games; over is 19-4 in its last 23 home games. Snakes are 8-16 in home series openers.

Cardinals @ Giants
Wainwright is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. Cardinals are 10-2 in his last 12 road starts.

Cueto is 1-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight starts.

St Louis lost three of last four games; they’re 4-1 in last five road series openers. Under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Giants lost their last three games, are 10-13 in home series openers. Under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.


American League

Twins @ Tigers
Santiago is 1-0, 1.86 in his last three starts (over 5-2). He is 0-2, 6.75 in three road starts for the Twins.

Pelfrey is 2-0, 3.52 in his last three starts; three of his last four starts went over the total. Twins won six of his last seven home starts.

Twins lost seven of last ten games; over is 9-3-2 in their last 14 games. Detroit lost five of last eight games; under is 14-5-1 in their last 20 home games.

A’s @ Royals
Mengden is 1-7, 4.94 in 11 starts this year; over is 6-2 in his last eight.

Volquez is 0-0, 7.20 in his last three starts; over is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Royals’ bullpen lost his last four home starts.

A’s are 6-4 in their last ten games; under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 road games. Kansas City lost seven of last nine home games; over is 12-2-1 in their last 15 games.

Indians @ White Sox
Clevinger is 1-1, 2.38 in his last three starts (under 3-0).

Shields is 0-5, 11.01 in his last eight starts (over 11-6-1). Chicago lost six of his last seven home starts.

Indians are 4-8 in last 12 road games; under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 road games. Chicago is 11-6 in its last 17 home games; ten of their last 13 games went over.

Rays @ Orioles
Snell is 1-3, 6.46 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Tampa Bay lost ix of his seven road starts.

Gallardo is 1-4, 5.34 in his last six starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12. Baltimore lost his last three home starts.

Tampa Bay won three of last four games; they’re 2-14 in last 16 road series openers. Under is 4-0-1 in Rays’ last five games. Orioles won three of last four games, are 9-15 in home series openers. Last six games at Camden Yards went over the total.

New York @ Boston
Tanaka is 6-0, 1.94 in his last seven starts; four of his last five stayed under. New York is 8-3 in its last 11 road starts.

Rodriguez is 0-3, 3.12 in his last six starts; under is 9-1 in his last ten starts. Boston is 0-7 in his home starts.

New York lost three of last four games, are 8-12 in last 20 road series openers. Four of last five NY games stayed under the total. Red Sox is 4-5 in last nine home games, but 9-2 in last 11 home series openers. Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Blue Jays @ Angels
Happ is 1-1, 5.40 in his last four starts; Jays won six of his last seven road starts. Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.

Wright is 0-1, 8.78 in three starts this season (over 3-0).

Toronto lost nine of last 12 games; they’re 3-8 in last 11 road series openers. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Angels lost seven of last eight games, are 1-4 in last five home series openers. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight games at the Big A.


Teams’ record when this pitcher starts:

Pitt-Phil: Kuhl 7-3; Eickhoff 14-15
Mil-Chi: Nelson 11-18; Montgomery 3-1/1-1
LA-Az: Hill 3-0/9-5; Bradley 10-12
StL-SF: Wainwright 19-10; Cueto 20-9

Min-Det: Santiago 2-5/16-6; Pelfrey 10-11
Cle-Chi: Clevinger 3-4; ; Shields 5-13/2-9
TB-Balt: Snell 5-11; Gallardo 10-10
NY-Bos: Tanaka 22-7 (7-0 last 7); Rodriguez 5-11
A’s-KC: Mengden 2-9; Volquez 12-14
Tor-LAA: Happ 21-7; Wright 0-1


# of time pitcher allows 1+ runs in first inning:

Pitt-Phil: Kuhl 4-10; Eickhoff 9-29
Mil-Chi: Nelson 10-29; Montgomery 2-6
LA-Az: Hill 4-16; Bradley 10-22
StL-SF: Wainwright 10-29; Cueto 6-29

Min-Det: Santiago 14-29; Pelfrey 9-21
Cle-Chi: Clevinger 3-7; Shields 12-29
TB-Balt: Snell 6-16; Gallardo 9-20 (3 of last 3)
NY-Bos: Tanaka 4-29; Rodriguez 3-16
A’s-KC: Mengden 4-11; Volquez 6-26
Tor-LAA: Happ 6-28; Wright 1-1
 
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StatFox Super Situations

MLB*|*ST LOUIS*at*SAN FRANCISCO
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ST LOUIS) team with a good SLG (>=.430) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games
66-21*since 1997.**(*75.9%*|*34.4 units*)
1-2*this year.**(*33.3%*|*-3.1 units*)


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB*|*OAKLAND*at*KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 23-9 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse*this season.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (5.3) , OPPONENT (4.2)
 

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