Thursday 9/10/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Patriots make roster moves before opener

The New England Patriots signed defensive back Justin Coleman to the 53-man roster from the Seattle Seahawks' practice squad and placed offensive lineman Bryan Stork on injured reserve on the eve of their season opener.

The Patriots also signed linebacker Alex Singleton to the practice squad and released offensive lineman Chris Barker from the practice squad on Wednesday.

Coleman, a 22-year-old rookie free agent, was released by the Minnesota Vikings on Aug. 30, signed by the Patriots on Sept. 4 and released a day later, and then signed by the Seahawks for their practice squad on Sept. 8.

Singleton, also a rookie free agent, was released by the Seahawks on Sept. 5.

Barker originally was claimed off waivers by the Patriots from the Miami Dolphins.

He played in four games for the Patriots as a rookie in 2013 and spent most of last season on the Patriots' practice squad. He was released by the team on Sept. 1 and signed to the practice squad on Sept. 8.

The Patriots open the regular season on Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Insane NFL Week 1 betting trend involving Super Bowl teams

One glaring NFL Week 1 football betting trend that has shown up since the turn of the century has to do with teams coming off an appearance in the Super Bowl the year before.

Defending Super Bowl champs have ridden that wave of momentum to a stellar 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS record in Week 1 the following season since 2000, most recently the Seattle Seahawks beating the Green Bay Packers 36-16 as 4.5-point favorites in a Thursday night opener last September.

The team that lost in the Big Game isn’t so lucky. Apparently, getting over that crushing defeat takes more than an offseason, with Super Bowl losers going 6-9 SU and only 3-12 ATS the last 15 seasons. The Denver Broncos, who were blown out by Seattle in Super Bowl XLVIII, defeated the Indianapolis Colts 31-24 in Week 1 but couldn’t cover the 8-point spread.

That puts the spotlight on the defending champion New England Patriots and Seahawks in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign. The Patriots are 7-point favorites hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday night, but were down to -2.5 when it was thought Tom Brady would be suspended for the first four games of the year. Seattle is currently a 4-point road favorite visiting the St. Louis Rams Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Thursday, Sept. 10

(955) NEW YORK METS VS (956) ATLANTA BRAVES

Your Bonus Play for Thursday, September 10, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the NY Mets and the Braves at Atlanta. Atlanta is a big park, great for pitchers, and the Mets go with Bartolo Colon goes here, who rarely walks anyone. Colon has walked 21 batters in 170 innings and faces a bad Atlanta offense that is last in baseball in runs scored. Colon (13-11) pitched a shutout Saturday, giving up nine hits while walking none and striking out two in a 7-0 victory over the Marlins. Colon required just 97 pitches to shut the Marlins out. Having extended his scoreless innings streak to 25, Colon has quelled performance and injury concerns by going at least seven innings in four of his last five starts. Atlanta is 4-1 under the total when Shelby Millers faces the National League East, plus 9-3 under in all of Miller's starts. Miller has a 2.21 ERA at home and the under is 5-2 when he pitches in this park. Play the NY Mets/Braves Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League
Cubs @ Phillies
Arrieta is 7-0, 0.72 in his last seven starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten.

Morgan is 1-1, 7.31 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.

Cubs won five of last six games (over 5-2 in last seven); they lost four of last five games with Philly- under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Phillies lost six of last seven games; six of their last eight went over the total.

Brewers @ Pirates
Peralta is 3-1, 4.18 in his last five starts (over 3-1 in last four).

Burnett is making first start since July 30; he 1-2, 10.69 in his last three starts; his last four went over.

Milwaukee won eight of last nine games with Pittsburgh; four of last five in series went over. Brewers lost three of last four games; eight of their last nine went over total. Pirates won three of last four; over is 7-2 in their last nine.

Mets @ Braves
Colon is 3-0, 0.00 (24 IP) in his last three starts (over 4-1 last five on road).

Miller is 0-4, 6.29 in his last four starts (under 7-3 in last ten).

Mets won four of last five games; over is 6-2 in their last eight. NY lost four of last five games with Atlanta (over 5-2 in last seven). Braves lost 13 of last 15 games; six of their last eight games went over.

Cardinals @ Reds
Garcia is 5-0, 1.98 in his last seven starts (under 5-2-1 in last eight).

Lamb is 0-3, 6.11 in his first five MLB starts (over 3-2).

St Louis won seven of last ten games with Cincinnati; last eight series games stayed under total. Cardinals lost five of last seven games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten. Reds lost four of their last six games (over 5-1).

Rockies @ Padres
de la Rosa is 2-1, 2.08 in his last four starts (under 4-1 in last five).

Ross is 2-1, 2.13 in his last four starts (under 4-0-1 last five at home).

Rockies lost nine of last 11 games with San Diego; five of last seven went over total. Colorado lost four of last five games (over 5-3 in last eight) overall. Padres lost six of last nine games; four of their last five stayed under.

American League
Rangers @ Mariners
Holland is 3-0, 2.15 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Hernandez is 2-0, 2.81 in his last two starts; his last four all went over.

Texas won three of last five games with Seattle; under is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Rangers won nine of last 13 games (under 9-3-1). Mariners won six of last eight games; eight of their last eleven games went over.

Blue Jays @ Bronx
Price is 3-1, 2.57 in his last four starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten.

Severino is 3-0, 0.98 in his last three starts (under 3-1 last four).

Toronto is 7-3 in last ten games with Bronx; last seven series games went under total. Blue Jays are 5-3 in last eight games; four of their last six went over the total. Bronx is 2-3 in last five games; six of their last nine games stayed under.

Tigers @ Indians
Simon is 1-2, 8.04 in his last three road starts.

Salazar is 1-2, 7.63 in his last three starts; six of his last eight stayed under.

Detroit lost three of last four games with Cleveland; six of last eight games in series went over total. Tigers are 3-2 in last five games (under 3-1-1). Indians won four of last six games; six of their last nine stayed under the total.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Chi-Phil-- Arrieta 20-8 (12-1 last 13); Morgan 7-6
Mil-Pitt-- Peralta 8-9; Burnett 12-9
NY-Atl-- Colon 14-13 (4-0 last 4); Miller 10-18 (2-16 last 18)
StL-Cin-- Garcia 10-5 (7-0 last 7); Lamb 0-5
Col-SD-- de la Rosa 13-11; Ross 16-13

Tex-Sea-- Holland 3-2; Hernandez 18-9
Tor-NY-- Price 20-8/5-2; Severino 3-3
Det-Clev-- Simon 15-11; Salazar 15-10

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Chi-Phil-- Arrieta 4-28; Morgan 2-13
Mil-Pitt-- Peralta 7-17; Burnett 5-21
NY-Atl-- Colon 8-27; Miller 5-28
StL-Cin-- Garcia 3-15; Lamb 3-5
Col-SD-- de la Rosa 8-24; Ross 8-29

Tex-Sea-- Holland 2-5; Hernandez 8-27
Tor-NY-- Price 7-28; Severino 2-6
Det-Clev-- Simon 5-26; Salazar 7-25

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Kick-Off'

The NFL season opens Thursday night with New England Patriots lined up against Pittsburgh Steelers in Foxboro. Over the past 15 seasons, the Patriots have won 80.1% of their regular season home games (97-23-28 SU) with backers cashing at a 55.8% clip (67-51-2 ATS) over the span. In the first week of the NFL season, Patriots are tops in the league at 11-4 SU under head coach Bill Belichick. However, betting-wise they're only 6-8-1 against the number. As for Pittsburgh, the squad has not been a great investment lately in season openers. In the past five, Steelers are a cash draining 1-4 ATS and just 3-5 ATS since HC Mike Tomlin took over.

The 'Deflategate' fiasco now in the rearview mirror, New England Patiots and Tom Brady have opened -6.5 to -7.0 point home favorites. Well to note, Patriots have been dominant in the football betting sweet spot of -6.5 to -7.0 point home chalk. The past seven such situations the team is a sparkling 6-1 at the betting window. Additionally, since 2000 Super Bowl Champs are a profitable 10-4-1 against the spread in Week 1 openers. Best of luck this season, but above all enjoy the games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

NFL: Defense Rules in September

The numbers show that defense is generally ahead of offense in the first week, with 'Under' prevailing as offenses works to get themselves in synch. A dive into our trusty NFL football database confirms the thought. Since the 2000 campaign, the O/U in week one is 108-128-2 with an average combined score of 41.3 points/game. The rest of September tilts the O/U is 287-277-7 with a combined score of 43.2 PPG. The next query looking at Week-One games deemed to be high scoring, that is ones where the betting market had set the O/U line at >44 the 'Under' hit at at 59.7% clip (46-30-1).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 12 - Post: 4:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$40000 - THE STALLION SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 NIMBLE AND QUICK 2/1


# 6 BEACH OGRE 9/2


# 2 GRIFFON HANOVER 9/1


All signs point to NIMBLE AND QUICK for the selection. Could be considered today if only for the respectable TrackMaster SR achieved in the last race. Could very well be the most compelling in the field here, showing great stats of late. Average speed is a solid 77. Most definitely think these two have a good thing going. Ringler sending the horse out means a really strong chance to get the score. BEACH OGRE - Could be considered in this one if only for the very nice speed rating recorded in the last contest. Smart handicappers love to play the driver of this colt - exemplary win percentage in recent times. GRIFFON HANOVER - This nice horse may have some hidden form, a victory would be a pleasant surprise.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 6:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 59 - Purse:$4500 - 2 YEAR OLDS. NW $7,500


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 NORTHERN PRINCE 2/1


# 3 OFFICIAL WEEK 8/1


# 1 BUGATTI 7/1


NORTHERN PRINCE will not be denied the trip to the winner's circle here. Really liked this colt's last race. Ran a big 57 speed rating. Major player. Win figure for this driver/trainer is a sparkling 26 percent - magnificent chance. The knowledge group has McDonald on its list of drivers who are tearing it up recently. Last 30 days win percent is excellent. OFFICIAL WEEK - 57 percent of the time this trainer and horse duo end up hitting the board. Big players in this race. Amazing hitting the board percentage for Duguay and this horse. A nice chance to get the score. BUGATTI - Drawing the 1 position at this track has lead to a much higher than average win clip.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 10 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 TOO WILD FOR WORDS 7/2


# 5 ZAMBITO 3/1


# 3 ALIZA'S DREAM 4/1


TOO WILD FOR WORDS is my choice. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Rodriguez should have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. Seems to have a competitive class edge based on the latest company kept. Might best this group here, showing very good figures of late. ZAMBITO - Has to be carefully examined versus this group displaying formidable figs as of late and an average speed fig of 82 under similar conditions. Has very strong front speed and ought to fare very well against this group. ALIZA'S DREAM - He has been running soundly and the speed figures are among the top in this group. He has very good class ratings, averaging 95, and has to be carefully examined for this event.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 68

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 POLAR EMPRESS 8/5


# 11 CATS WEST 2/1


# 8 SONGANDAHEART 8/1


I have to support POLAR EMPRESS here. Has run solidly when racing a dirt sprint race. McMahon has a win percent of 28 over the last month. Looks very good versus this group and will almost certainly be one of the early speedsters. CATS WEST - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this field of horses. With a competitive 68 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. SONGANDAHEART - Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 61 Equibase Speed Fig which is one of the most respectable in this field. Milligan has this filly racing well and is a formidable choice based on the respectable speed figures recorded in sprint races recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,300 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 FINALE RACK (ML=5/1)
#3 CHLOE'S WHITE SOXS (ML=4/1)
#1 PATRIA QUERIDA (ML=7/2)
#8 MANDY'S PUNCH (ML=3/1)


FINALE RACK - Her win on April 23rd in a $12,500 Claiming race, at 6 furlongs, is a big plus for this filly. Lets try to beat the probable favorites with this filly. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race. Trainer, Madrigal, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. CHLOE'S WHITE SOXS - Jock hops up on after getting to know the fine animal by riding last out. That's always a good thing. I'm optimistic this filly will run well today. Last workout was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now. That 68 fig this filly earned in her last event tells me she's a key player in today's event. PATRIA QUERIDA - It looks like Rodriguez had to 'know' this filly on July 22nd when riding her for the initial time. Back on again today. The jockey and handler combination have a lucrative ROI when they team up. MANDY'S PUNCH - This filly should be in tip-top shape, this far into her form cycle. I am keen on that last race on August 27th at Penn National where she finished second. This filly's last speed fig garnered on August 27th is number one in last race speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 RED SOX FAN (ML=6/1), #6 LUCKYNEVA (ML=8/1),

RED SOX FAN - She had to show me more against that weaker group in the last race on Aug 22nd to get my support today. LUCKYNEVA - Would have to advance off that fifth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 FINALE RACK to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Louisiana Downs - Race #1 - Post: 3:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 51

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 MISS JENNIE (ML=7/2)
#8 RUBY CASCADE (ML=10/1)


MISS JENNIE - This filly should give a strong account of herself in today's affair. RUBY CASCADE - For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of fitness there is. Look at that last one - 36.0. Very impressive. Carrying 5 pounds less this race. Trainer has her in a good spot.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BELLA BRINA (ML=5/2), #6 BRING ME THE CASH (ML=9/2), #1 LESLIE'S GIRL (ML=6/1),

BELLA BRINA - You should normally bet against morning-line favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. Hasn't hit the board in any short distance events recently. Not likely to see her doing it in today's event either. This steed ran a quite unimpressive speed figure last out. She shouldn't run much better and will likely lose today running that fig. BRING ME THE CASH - This animal likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually win. Forget the top spot. Not likely that the speed rating she garnered on August 22nd will hold up in this event. LESLIE'S GIRL - Don't think this entrant has what it takes to be victorious this time.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #5 MISS JENNIE on the win end if we get at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 9/10 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

5,6/3/2,5,8/2,7,8 = $18


LATE PICK 4: 2,7,8/6,8/1,4,9/2 = $18

MEET STATS: 293 - 950 / $1620.90 BEST BETS: 40 - 85 / $131.20

SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 82 / $92.30

Best Bet: CAPRICE HILL (5th)

Spot Play: LISSOY (4th)


Race 1

(9) MARQUIS VOLO had a breakout performance at Georgian last time and can double up here if he can float out and get a spot near the front early from where he can launch his assault. (6) TYMAL WIZARD had a rough trip from an outer post at Flamboro last time vs. better and should be competitive here. (3) SKEETER P has been racing vs. stakes fillies in Kentucky but will likely be over bet here in a race where she holds no major advantage.

Race 2

(9) MYLITTLESTARSHINE overcame a mid-race shuffle last time and was really flying at the wire. There appears to be plenty of speed to chase here and Zeron will have this one winding up off cover when they turn home. (3) STORMONT WIZARD's late rally fell just short last time in a good effort but he continues to pile up slices to go with his lone win.(7) P L INDYANACA took a new life's mark last week but had a bit of a lucky trip and was passing winded horses late. Minor share predicted this time.

Race 3

(1) TWICE IS RIGHT tried to close from far back vs. one of the division leaders last time who opened up on the field down the lane. This Donato Hanover filly was closing well, considering and should get a much more aggressive steer here. (7) READY ANY TIME - like many young Kadabras - shows high speed and breaks in stride. She put the trotting hopples on for her last qualifier and trotted a big mile; beware. (5) ULTIMATE SHOPPER has produced good closing speed in every mile except the one two back where she broke. She's in with a decent shot here.

Race 4

(6) LISSOY is a full-sister to two winners which have been the only two produced from the dam so far. She meets a field in which many seem win-shy and gets Filion; top call. (5) NICE TRIP has had many chances but was closing ground on a very sharp winner late last time and should be respected here. (3) SO RAVEN always looks good on paper but never gets there. Beware taking a short price in the win pool.

Race 5

(3) CAPRICE HILL was impressive last week winning the Champlain with the utmost of ease in good time over a track rated a second slow. She is the one to beat here. (7) ALL THE TIME has been flawless since her debut and will give the choice a stern challenge here. (2) EMOTOCON HANOVER went a big trip last time out the route and is improving quickly. The top two may be too much for her here, though.

Race 6

(8) HILLSONATOR has been racing decently and now adds Lasix. No doubt he will be trying to take these down the road. (2) ASPEN CALIFORNIA won in this class three back and may offer a good price here off her last two starts; using. (5) HURICANE HAZEL exits Grassroots races where she has been doing well and she will be passing horses late here.

Race 7

(7) SOME GOLD had a useful opener over an off track and Dr. Moore can improve young ones quickly; upset call. (8) DR J HANOVER has shown promise in both of his starts and will take the bulk of the wagering with Gingras signed on. He has to be on pick 4 tickets. (2) AZUL POOL cracked the exacta for the first time last out showing improved late speed. He's another contender here.

Race 8

(8) COULD IT BE MAGIC transferred her dominant Ontario-bred form to a decisive Grand Circuit win last week. Owner/Trainer/Driver Henry drives her with supreme confidence and takes a back seat to no one with this Kadabra filly; top call. (2) GIFTED LADY ships in off a sharp win in New York but will have to contend with the choice's quick brush here. (7) HIGH HEELS left, took a shuffle then came on again for 2nd vs. the choice last time. She could capitalize if a duel develops, but that may be unlikely.

Race 9

(8) DUH BUBBEES has won off a similar break/re-qualify scenario earlier this summer and was a square price that night as he is sure to be tonight; upset special. (6) SHOW BIZ HALL picked up Gingras last week and he drove him to a decisive win. That teamster returns here and this colt is strictly the one to beat. (2) ITS HUW YOU KNOW closed late for 2nd to the one above last week and can pick up some pieces here.

Race 10

(4) HAZMATT tried a deep-closing style last week and was moving well in the stretch. She returns to a 7-day cycle here and can win this if McNair moves her earlier. (9) COTTONWOOD CREEK tried a very sharp winner first up and didn't tire badly late. She could take these with a decent trip. (1) SEAWIND KERRY should get off the gate better here and grab a minor share.

Race 11

(2) SOAKING UP THE SUN went a monster first-over trip to win first off the claim and should be able to double up here. (4) READ THE PROPOSAL drops into a claimer for the first time and should show sharp improvement here. (8) BRINGHOMETHEBLUE dropped, popped and was claimed. He fits this class well. (10) STEVES LEGACY drops out of Grassroots races and should be passing a few of these late for a slice. (9) PIER HO TEMPTATION was 2nd to the choice last time but had a much softer trip; minor award predicted.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 9/10 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 43 - 106 / $200.10 BEST BETS: 5 - 9 / $17.60

Best Bet: GRACE SEELSTER (7th)

Spot Play: LA FIESTA (12th)


Race 1

(3) BIG BAD BOSSMAN got hung out last time and has been stuck in post eight for three straight starts. He should easily make the front this week and has a big chance. (1) GIACOMETTI is another that should enjoy the better post; good trip chance. (7) JETTY wired the field in his last start at this level. If he makes the front, watch out.

Race 2

(4) PRIVATE PERFORMANC paced home strong in her first start for Robinson while just missing. Let's stick with her and expect an even better effort. (2) CASE SOLVED finally got over the top last time; threat for top barn. (1) EAGLE MOLLY put up a big middle half for the score to close out August; clear player.

Race 3

(2) BIJOU THEATER makes his first start for the high percentage Banca barn and gets a drop in class as well; logical choice. (4) ICED OUT gets a trainer and driver change. Mare is capable of showing more. (1) SADIES PLACE doesn't win very often anymore but knows how to get into the bottom exotic spots.

Race 4

(3) LITTLE MERMAID N was a strange claim by the Allard barn last out. You don't see many 13-year-olds get plucked out of a bottom-level claimer. That aside, this is a major barn change that could produce results. (2) NUTMEGS DESIRE has been knocking on the door and seems like the main threat. (6) MY CAROLINE is in form now.

Race 5

(3) BELLA NOCHE has yet to pick up a win in 19 starts this year, but this is really a good spot for her and I'm expecting an aggressive steer. (5) MADDIE D moves into a new barn and adds Brian Sears. I'm guessing she'll be sent off lower than those 15-1 early odds. (4) GET THE LOOK was better in her second start for this barn.

Race 6

(2) GODDESSS ROSA comes out of a race that went in 1:51 1/5 where she did all the work. This race could go four seconds slower. (4) DENYITTOTHEEND has early speed and form. (6) FRISKIES ANGEL hasn't made back a cent since the claim back in May. She got caught in a fast mile last time; using her as a saver.

Race 7

(1) GRACE SEELSTER has won her last three starts when racing for Rene Allard. If she comes close to her most recent effort, she wins again. (3) ABS TO ENVY was a bit short after missing a few months of action; capable of more. (2) EYRE HOSTESS N should save ground and get a nice chunk.

Race 8

(1) GEORGE JETTISON finds a great spot in his debut for this barn. He should come away no worse than the pocket and have every opportunity to win. (6) P L FIGHTER lacked a late kick in his two tries for this stable, but does add top driver Jason Bartlett. (4) BABES I SCOOT finally gets a better post to work with. (5) REPORT FOR DUTY N is usually good for a bottom piece of the exotics.

Race 9

(6) ALL FIRED UP showed some late pace in his first start for the new barn and seems capable of upsetting with a clean trip. (4) FITZS Z TAM comes off a huge mile and automatically warrants attention. (5) ROCKY MOUNTAIN GUY was facing some fast foes at Pocono, but hasn't won here since 2013.

Race 10

(3) LICULIA A raced well in her first North American start and should be even better tonight. (2) SOLID QUEEN should be able to leave around the rail horse and be a major player. (6) LET HER ROCK didn't exactly have a clean trip last time; upset chance.

Race 11

(5) NARCIAN JEWEL as back at Yonkers at a reduced level and should perk up for a good barn. (6) HEART MAJOR takes on her elders but has proven high speed in her arsenal. (1) KIMS DAY & (2) ALITTLEEASTERMAGIC are both in good form and have drawn well.

Race 12

(5) LA FIESTA has been racing against better in Pennsylvania and now moves into a good barn; very dangerous. (1) KAITLYN RAE draws best and moves into the Allard barn. (4) JUSTHAVENTMETUYET was used hard and kept finding more a week ago. (2) FASHION MYSTERY would be no surprise.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington Park (6th) Jack N Ginger, 3-1
(8th) Major Spike, 8-1


Belterra Park (2nd) Battlements, 6-1
(7th) Spirit Amour, 4-1


Canterbury Park (2nd) Proud Royal, 6-1
(7th) Truetap, 4-1


Charles Town (2nd) Red Sentinal, 3-1
(5th) Buddy's Greenstone, 10-1


Finger Lakes (7th) Vineyard Vista, 3-1
(9th) Heaven's Best, 4-1


Kentucky Downs (1st) Depart Dover, 4-1
(6th) Mines and Magic, 8-1


Los Alamitos (1st) Mi Agave, 6-1
(4th) El Monterey, 4-1


Louisiana Downs (2nd) Rhi on the Run, 5-1
(6th) One Grand King, 10-1


Penn National (1st) Noah n' Jacob, 5-1
(3rd) Pelican Par, 4-1

Presque Isle Downs (4th) Honey's Heir, 3-1
(8th) Melora, 7-2


Remington Park (4th) Cherokee Streak, 9-2
(9th) Cindy's Silver, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rangers (73-65) at Mariners (67-73)

Game: 4
Venue: Safeco Field
Date: September 10, 2015 3:40 PM EDT

It's been two weeks since the Texas Rangers last dropped back-to-back games.

To prevent that from happening again, they likely must find a way to get the best of Seattle's Felix Hernandez and hope Derek Holland can continue his own success.

While the Mariners ace looks to improve to 4-0 against the visiting Rangers this year, Holland tries to win a third consecutive start Thursday.

"I have to go out there and be me," Holland told MLB's official website. "(Hernandez) is a great pitcher, but I have to do what I do. If they get me one run, I have to shut it down."

With Wednesday's 6-0 defeat, Texas (73-65) fell for the eighth time in 26 games. The Rangers, who own a 1 1/2-game lead over Minnesota for the AL's second wild-card spot and are two back of first-place Houston in the West, last dropped two in a row Aug. 25-26 to Toronto.

After hitting four home runs in Tuesday's 9-6 win over Seattle (67-73), the Rangers managed only a Prince Fielder single and struck out 13 times against Vidal Nuno and two relievers.

Texas has totaled 13 hits and fanned 21 times this season against Hernandez (16-8, 3.65 ERA), who has a 2.18 ERA while winning all three meetings. He's yielded three runs over 14 innings in the two at home.

"He is as good as they come in baseball," Rangers manager Jeff Banister said.

The right-hander has also looked good in posting a 2.81 ERA, striking out 16 and walking one while lasting eight innings each to win his last two starts that both came against Oakland. Perhaps the only negative is that Hernandez yielded three home runs over those contests.

"I think sometimes when a guy is so good, we expect greatness every time out," Seattle manager Lloyd McClendon. "In this game, it's just not going to happen. The guys that step in the box make money and drive Mercedes Benz, too. Sometimes the bear get you, too. But Felix has been fine."

Adrian Beltre is 1 for 7 and Fielder 2 for 9 against Hernandez in 2015.

Holland (3-1. 2.37) is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA in four starts since missing four months with a shoulder strain. In his first game back Aug. 19, the left-hander allowed two runs and struck out six without a walk in 6 1-3 innings of a 7-2 win over Seattle.

He's been even better while yielding a run and six hits over 17 innings in his last two outings.

"Everything feels good,' said Holland, who is 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last seven starts against the Mariners. "They asked me right after I came back off the DL if I was ready to go. And when you say you're ready to go, it means you're ready to go full steam.'

Mark Trumbo homered off Holland last month, his fifth in 41 at-bats against him. He went 4 for 4 Wednesday and is batting .321 with seven home runs and 15 RBIs while hitting safely in 20 of his last 21 contests.

Robinson Cano is hitting .387 with a homer against Holland.

Teammate Nelson Cruz is second in the majors with 39 homers but could miss a seventh straight contest with a quad injury.

'He's close. You've got to be able to run,' McClendon said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rockies (57-82) at Padres (67-73)

Game: 4
Venue: PETCO Park
Date: September 10, 2015 3:40 PM EDT

The San Diego Padres haven't performed up to expectations, but they haven't had much trouble against the Colorado Rockies.

Another big performance from their offense could help Tyson Ross beat the Rockies for the first time as the Padres conclude an 11-game homestand Thursday.

San Diego (67-73) had a chance to reach .500 on Aug. 23, but it dropped 11 of its next 15 before winning the last two against Colorado (57-82). Jedd Gyorko hit a three-run homer and Matt Kemp added a solo shot in Wednesday's 11-4 victory.

Kemp extended his hitting streak to seven for the Padres, whose 18 hits marked their most since they tied their season high of 20 on May 24. Kemp has hit .356 as San Diego has outscored the Rockies 94-59 while winning 11 of 15 meetings this season.

Ross (10-10, 3.21 ERA) is winless in eight starts against Colorado, though, including 0-1 with a 3.78 ERA in three this season. He's been solid against other clubs lately, going 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA over his last four.

The right-hander gave up one run in six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday but took a 2-0 loss. Ross' ERA hasn't been this low since after his first start.

'Ross wins the ballgame on a lot of other nights,' interim manager Pat Murphy said.

That would've been the case Wednesday, when Gyorko helped lead the offensive onslaught. He has four homers and nine RBIs over his last seven and has hit safely in 11 of 12.

'I think he is starting to realize that type of ballplayer he is,' Murphy said. 'He's capable of a lot of things. He has taken his game to another level and it is fun to see.'

Gyorko appears to have a good chance to stay hot, as he's 13 for 19 with a homer and five doubles off Jorge De La Rosa (9-6, 4.24). Kemp (20 for 46, four homers, six doubles) also has had plenty of success against De La Rosa, who enters this matchup riding a solid stretch.

The left-hander improved to 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA over his last four starts after pitching seven solid innings of Friday's 2-1 win over San Francisco. He didn't walk a batter after issuing 15 over his previous five outings.

"We have a lot of confidence in De La Rosa," teammate Nolan Arenado said. "We know that he has the ability to shut the door down."

De La Rosa has a 3.22 ERA in 12 road starts and a 3.00 mark in nine at San Diego despite losing both there this season. The Rockies as a whole haven't had success at Petco Park recently, dropping 17 of their last 21 visits.

Arenado had two hits Wednesday and is batting .450 with seven homers over his last 10. Carlos Gonzalez went 1 for 4, though, and is batting .125 while playing all 15 matchups against the Padres this season.

Rockies rookie catcher Dustin Garneau hit his first major league homer in his eighth start. He made his third straight in place of Nick Hundley, who will be out at least three more days after an MRI revealed a cervical strain.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cubs (80-58) at Phillies (54-86)

Game: 1
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Date: September 10, 2015 7:05 PM EDT

To no surprise, Jake Arrieta is set up to start a NL wild-card game the Chicago Cubs appear to be headed toward.

In the meantime, the right-hander will try to become the first Cub in 43 years to win an eighth consecutive start Thursday night against the host Philadelphia Phillies.

For the first time publicly, manager Joe Maddon stated this week that Arrieta (18-6, 2.03 ERA) is in line to take the ball in the one-game wild-card matchup next month over seasoned playoff veteran Jon Lester.

"He's the best pitcher on this team right now; he's probably the best pitcher in the league right now," Lester told MLB's official website.

While Chicago (80-58) appears to have a firm grasp on the second wild-card spot, it's three games behind Pittsburgh for the top position. The Cubs have won eight straight starts by Arrieta, the major league leader in wins who has yielded two earned runs, 23 hits, struck out 50 and walked 10 over 50 1-3 innings to win the last seven.

'It's as good as you're going to get on a major league level,' Maddon said. 'The quality of pitches, the durability, the guy that absolutely takes care of himself."

In position to become the first Cub to win eight consecutive starts since Milt Pappas' 11-game run in 1972, Arrieta followed up his no-hitter at Dodger Stadium by yielding four hits, fanning seven and not walking a batter in eight innings of Saturday's 2-0 victory over Arizona.

Stating his case for the NL Cy Young award, Arrieta has gone 29 innings without allowing an earned run.

"It's hard for me to fathom that somebody is better than Jake Arrieta," teammate David Ross said. "I know numbers are numbers, and there are some guys in L.A. that are doing a really good job, but I'll take that guy on the mound any day of the week."

Arrieta hasn't lost since giving up a three-run homer to Ryan Howard over six innings in a 5-0 defeat to Philadelphia (54-86) on July 25 - the same day Cole Hamels no-hit the Cubs. Since being swept in that three-game by the Phillies, Chicago is 29-12.

However, the Cubs must bounce back after their five-game winning streak ended Wednesday when they blew a two-run lead in a 4-3 loss at NL-leading St. Louis.

"We have to take the positives from (winning) this three-game series," Lester said. "We came in (there) and made a little bit of a statement."

Howard is 0 for 27 in his last seven games for the Phillies, who no longer have Hamels around and lost for the 12th time in 16 games, 8-1 to Atlanta on Wednesday.

Adam Morgan (5-5, 4.42) looks to rebound after he allowed six runs in 6 1-3 innings of a 7-5 loss at Boston on Friday.

"It's all about having a short memory,' the rookie left-hander said. 'Just damage control - try not to let things get out of hand.'

He could face Starlin Castro, who no longer is an everyday player but is 7 for 12 with four runs scored in his last four contests. He's hit .355 with a homer and 12 RBIs in 16 career games at Philadelphia.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Brewers (61-78) at Pirates (83-55)

Game: 1
Venue: PNC Park
Date: September 10, 2015 7:05 PM EDT

A.J. Burnett doesn't have much time before his 17th and final season comes to end, even if the Pittsburgh Pirates advance deep into the playoffs.

He wasn't about to waste any more of it sitting out.

The right-hander makes his first start in six weeks as the wild card-leading Pirates begin an eight-game homestand Thursday night against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have had Pittsburgh's number over the last few months.

Burnett (8-5, 3.06 ERA) had been on the disabled list with elbow inflammation since his last outing July 30, when a loss to Cincinnati increased his ERA to 10.13 during a three-start stretch.

He was determined to get back on the hill as soon as possible and pushed his rehabilitation in order to do so. Burnett has said he will retire following the season.

"Once I got ready on the mound, it was time to go," Burnett told MLB's official website. "I've responded well from throwing, and I've responded the days after. It's time for the next step, and that's to get back on the mound."

Burnett is 0-5 in his last six starts against the Brewers (61-78) despite a 3.10 ERA. He gave up one run in seven innings June 8, though the Pirates (83-55) suffered a 2-0 loss that began a 1-8 stretch against Milwaukee.

Pittsburgh has won four of six since the Brewers completed their second straight three-game sweep of the Pirates last Thursday. Jung Ho Kang hit a grand slam Wednesday as Pittsburgh held on for a 5-4 win at Cincinnati.

The Pirates extended their wild-card lead over Chicago to three games and remained 4 1/2 back of St. Louis in the Central.

"We were kind of waiting for a big hit, and I feel like everyone was into that moment, (Kang's) at-bat," winning pitcher J.A. Happ said of Pittsburgh's first grand slam of the season. "Off the bat, I think a lot of guys knew he put the right swing on it."

Milwaukee enters this series having dropped three of four after falling 5-2 at Miami on Wednesday while managing four hits.

Nevin Ashley made his major league debut in place of injured catcher Jonathan Lucroy and had an RBI double that gave Milwaukee a two-run lead in the second inning.

He could start again as Lucroy is expected to sit out with a mild concussion suffered on a foul ball to the mask Tuesday.

'My phone's blowing up right now, friends and family,' Ashley said. 'I'm just happy to be up here and contribute. I got a pitch to hit. Luckily, I didn't miss it.'

Wily Peralta (5-8, 4.21) gets the ball on plenty of rest. He threw 39 pitches in two scoreless innings against Cincinnati on Saturday before a long rain delay cut his outing short.

The right-hander gave up one run in seven innings to beat the Reds in his last full start Aug. 30, and he had the same line in a 1-0 loss to the Pirates the last time he faced them Sept. 21.

Pedro Alvarez is 4 for 11 with two homers against Peralta.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Blue Jays (79-60) at Yankees (77-61)

Game: 1
Venue: Yankee Stadium
Date: September 10, 2015 7:05 PM EDT

Luis Severino was a name swirling around the New York Yankees' rumored deals to land David Price at the trade deadline. The prized prospect, however, stayed put while the much sought after Price went to the division rival Toronto Blue Jays.

Severino and Price will pitch opposite one another Thursday night as the Yankees and Blue Jays open a pivotal four-game series in the Bronx.

The Blue Jays (79-60) lost two of three in Boston this week but retained their 1 1/2-game AL East lead over the Yankees (77-61), who dropped the final two games against Baltimore.

Seven games remain between the teams - the other three in Toronto from Sept. 21-23 - each carrying increased importance.

"I think you'd have to have your head in the sand to think that they're not important games," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told MLB's official website. "Obviously it's the team that we're fighting for first place, and the importance of winning the division the way that the playoffs are set up, the games are extremely important."

The Yankees took two of three in Toronto from Aug. 14-16, but the Blue Jays won seven of the first nine games in the season series. Toronto has taken five of six in New York this season.

"I expect it to be very intense. A crazy place like New York normally always is," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said. "I'm excited about it. I know our guys are excited about it. We haven't been in one of these things in, well - nobody out here has experienced it with this team. So we're looking forward to it."

Toronto's two most recent losses were lopsided, an 11-4 defeat in Monday's opener against the Red Sox and a 10-4 loss in Wednesday's finale.

Price (14-5, 2.43 ERA) will try to steady the division leaders versus a team he has pitched well against in a Toronto uniform. In two starts against the Yankees since getting traded from Detroit on July 30, Price is 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA.

That is a stark contrast from his last two starts against the Yankees with Detroit. In his final start against them in 2014 and his first in 2015 combined, Price allowed 22 hits and 16 runs in 4 1-3 innings for a massive ERA of 33.23.

Chase Headley (.500), Brian McCann (.435 with three homers) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.333) have each hit Price hard in their careers.

The left-hander, though, hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his seven starts since joining the Blue Jays, going 5-1 with a 2.15 ERA.

The Yankees had to wait a bit longer before seeing a return from Severino, but their patience has paid off.

Severino (3-2, 2.04) has five quality starts in six outings since his promotion from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre on Aug. 5, and is 3-0 with a 0.98 ERA in his past three.

The 21-year-old right-hander last lost at Toronto on Aug. 16, yielding three runs - two on Jose Bautista's homer - and five hits over six innings in a 3-1 defeat. He walked three and struck out a career-high nine.

Severino can struggle with his command at times, walking 13 over 24 1-3 innings in his last four outings.

Yankees center fielder Brett Gardner missed the entire series against the Orioles due to a jammed left shoulder, but grounded out as a pinch-hitter in the eighth inning Wednesday.