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Northfield: Thursday 8/7 Analysis
By Ken Walters

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: COLBY D (1st)

Spot Play: WINGULL (15th)


race 1

(1) COLBY D was parked the mile in last and second best. Beaten favorite has no excuse tonight. (3) FORTUNE KING faces slightly weaker and moves in off last late closing effort from the outside. (7) MOMS LOOKER faces weaker but could use a better post.

race 2

(1) GLIDED TOWARDS ME won last facing this kind from the pole. Should be hard to take down once more. (6) VODKAINDUCEDREAMS is hard to spell, but her efforts this year have been hard to fault including last week's game victory. (7) ITSALLABOUTTONIGHT hopes to improve dramatically over last week's dismal effort. He faces weaker and hopes for a fast track and a fast clip.

race 3

(5) TIMER is on the clock facing slightly better off a quick front-stepping score in last. (9) LEGACY CHIP should be able to navigate through early traffic and find a good spot. With cover and a good flow she needs a little kick in her step to finish it off. (2) DEPUTY DYLAN seems to be rounding into a winning effort after some speed three back, some late foot two back, and a steady finish from a bad post in last.

race 4

(5) I KNOW YOUR LOOKIN returns after a short rest and qualified like a dynamo. Vet has won more than half his starts this year and that is amazing in and of itself. (3) FREDSABULLDOG has looked good in almost all of his recent efforts and most have been at this level. (4) BLUE COLLAR RAIDER qualified well and despite coming in third he actually went faster than the top choice.

race 5

(9) ALADY FOR SURE is still looking to break her maiden and needs to time her best move for the right moment. (3) BUSTED FLAT looked like a giant winning his qualifier by daylight two back, but failed to bring his best game last time. Perhaps he will be tighter this evening and get that first win. (1) LUCKY SPIRIT won last but was rough gaited. Draws well but needs to stay the course--and stay flat.

race 6

(6) MR ABERDEEN self destructed before the start in last and burned some money in the process. Has won four of last six and has earned another look. (2) CASHONTHEROCS won last, goes well when flat and draws inside. Faces somewhat better but the staying flat part is important for his chances this evening. (3) SPECIAL PURPOSE was jumping all over the track in last at .60 on the dollar. If he stays flat he stays close.

race 7

(1) LITTLEWHITEKIDDIE draws the rail after a much improved effort and should get that elusive first win of the year. (8) LADY GISELE broke behind the gate in last and had too much to make up. Beaten favorite draws poorly but her best efforts make her the one to fear. (9) CHERRY REBEL should find a path through early traffic and find a good spot, but she seems to do her best work on the front end and that spot may be denied her.

race 8

(3) MAKEMINE BLUEGRASS could not last two back on the front end but was tightened some last time from outside post. (2) CHANAS LUCKY THREE had the trip in last but failed to step it up. She has shown modest improvement in her last few efforts; would be no surprise. (9) AMAZING SUZY is the sharpest now but the post hurts a bit.

race 9

(2) VISION OF GLORY won last and draws well. (1) MYSTERY RINGER has been in striking range last few but failed to get it done. Still from the rail he should be in striking distance once more and a little racing luck makes him a serious threat. (3) TWILIGHT METEOR came back with a solid placing after a scratched-injured line and earns a look.

race 10

(4) BUBBA SKINNER shipped in for last, tightened up and tries again. (5) CMR WINDMACH had tough luck while parked out in last and tired. Can close well enough with the right trip and has to be considered. (8) TERROR OF THETRACK has done some damage but that was in the past. Needs a good trip and tired front speed, but has taken some money in recent races.

race 11

(2) MASTEROFCEREMONIES was closing strong in latest and that will be enough if the move carries on for this week. (5) CRAZY JESSE self destructed in last and he could be tough if he minds his manners. (4) SJS PROPOSAL ships in off a strong win at Tioga and is to be respected.

race 12

(2) TOUCH OF LUCK won his qualifier and looms as hard to beat tonight. Two-year-old battled at the Big M two back should have no trouble in here. (4) IMALLEXCITED makes his racing debut and won a qualifier two back. That is exciting enough to mention. (5) DECKED OUT DUNE has yet to win but has shown some improvement in last couple.

race 13

(1) ANOTHEROUNDOFDAVE has been winless a long time but draws the rail in field of struggling horses and has been threatening to notch a victory in last few outs. (7) TRESNER SEELSTER just missed in last but moves out a bit. (6) BLAGOJEVICH has only raced twice this year and still has hope on his side.

race 14

(1) DESPITETHEREDTAPE has flashed some improvement last two while showing some late speed. He should be placed to launch a late bid and earns long look. (7) PRO PLAY has been showing some early speed facing his own kind in qualifiers. This 2yo makes his debut and has shown enough life to earn some respect. (3) TICKLE R PATTY has yet to find the winner's circle in her 45-race career but lands a check often enough to consider for a share.

race 15

(4) WINGULL rallied late in last and Rock is ever a wakeup threat. This longshot is worth considering if you're looking for a big number. (3) PICTONIAN ESPRESSO was parked too long in last to give it his best shot. (1) LARRY CLARK showed some late speed two back and early speed in last. The rail should be enough to make him a serious threat.
 
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Mohawk: Thursday 8/7 Analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: ASAP HANOVER (9th)

Spot Play: THE MUSCLER (6th)


Race 1

(7) MR LOVER comes from the Larocque barn and likely will be the favorite once again. (6) MISS LIV is winless from seven starts this season, but comes from the Baillargeon barn and was a game second last week. (1) AGGRESSIVE draws inside, consistently trots in the 1:56 range and is a good triactor options.

Race 2

(2) JETPEDIA draws inside and scored an impressive qualifying win in 1:57 4/5. (6) ONLY MY WAY won his qualifier by 11 lengths and comes from the Bardier barn. (5) HOMEN DRY finished second in the Excel Series in his lone start of his career. He posted a good time and moves onto this surface; speed, versatility, and maybe a fair price.

Race 3

(8) TASK FORCE comes from the Alagna barn, qualified sharply at The Meadowlands and has some upside. (9) NOR STAR RENEGADE has terrific gate speed, gets Jamieson in the bike and likely will offer a low price. (3) WINDSONG LORD draws well, comes from a top barn and continues to improve with each start.

Race 4

(2) MAJOR HANGOVER has been knocking on the door for many weeks and is well overdue to break her maiden. (7) DEPTH MORE DEPTH has won two straight, comes from the Keyes barn and still fits this class. (8) LADY EMILY qualified well with a solid final quarter and may offer a price.

Race 5

(3) SURF REPORT draws inside, comes from the Alagna barn and recently qualified in 1:54 3/5. (7) THUNDERSTRUCK showed a much improved effort last week for Moiseyev and closed strongly. (1) BIG MOMENT was a strong winner two back in gate-to-wire fashion and is capable of a rebound effort.

Race 6

(3) THE MUSCLER continues to offer a price in here. He has been racing very consistently this season, shows the speed and won in this class three back. (10) ADVERSITY has been knocking on the door in each of his last three starts and was timed in 1:54 2/5. (7) DEMANDING SAM was impressive last week after she minded her manners en route to victory and will look to continue her winning ways.

Race 7

(4) PLAY AT WYNN was a winner last week in this class, comes from the Gallucci barn and draws well. (10) JUST ONE MORE has won two of her last three, comes from the Johnson barn and was impressive last week in 1:51 4/5. (6) BEST RISQUE has a terrific record this season, is versatile and is a top threat for the triactor.

Race 8

(3) SHES DANGEROUS is fresh off an open-length score and remains at this same level. (2) SAM draws inside, finished second last week in this class and has a solid late kick. (8) PAID IN CASH hasn’t missed the board in three starts this season and was a beaten favorite last week.

Race 9

(2) ASAP HANOVER will make his career debut on this circuit with Tetrick aboard. The Metro Pace eligible is a single! (6) TRACEUR HANOVER was won two straight to begin his career and is a logical choice for the exactor. (9) JAKE BLUE CHIP draws outside once again, but has all kinds of speed to offer and he may come at a price.

Race 10

(3) HAPPY BECKY is a perfect three-for-three to begin her career, comes from the Coleman barn and will get a lot of attention. (5) THE SHOW RETURNS is the younger full-sister to Put On A Show and captured her latest in the opening round of the series. It’s between these two fillies for top honors. (4) OUR HOT MAJORETTE draws well and hasn’t missed the board yet this season. She has the speed, versatility and is a logical option for the triactor.

Race 11

(1) WORLD PEACE drops into this claiming event, gets the rail and has three wins this season from seven starts. (2) A AND GS BADBOY draws inside and has been knocking on the door as of late in this class. (5) LUCKY SHOT has hit the board in each of his last four starts and moves onto this circuit.
 
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Yonkers: Thursday 8/7 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS


Best Bet: TEXAS CAVIAR (7th)

Spot Play: NATURAL HABITAT (6th)


Race 1

(5) ALGEBRA has good tactical speed and with a good trip, this pacing mare can make tonight a winning one. (6) PERFECTLY ROYAL was quite good in her last trip; threat. (3) MCNICKELS MCDIMES gets post relief.

Race 2

(2) JERSEY BOY made a bad break in his last try at The Meadowlands. Trotter can get back on the right track against this group. (5) SINA put in a mild rally in her latest; main danger. (6) LOLA DE VIE fits well in here; watch out.

Race 3

(6) YUMMY SUSHI can make a quick turnaround against this group; threat at best. (1) PUTNAMS GLORY should do much better from the rail slot. (3) QUICKSILVERCANDY A put in a mild bid for the third spot last time out.

Race 4

(1) LITTLE MERMAID N showed good pace in her last try. Twelve-year-old mare can get the job done from the fence. (4) UP FRONT CRUISER was sharp in victory in her last trip to the post. (3) CANACO STAR could have a say in the outcome.

Race 5

(1) STRUNG OUT receives post relief and that might be what he needs to take this. (3) P J LUCKY also did well at the draw; main danger. (7) DRIVE EM COWBOY will be closing in the final strides so watch out.

Race 6

(3) NATURAL HABITAT moves back down in class and the 3-hole can help his cause in here; threat at best. (4) PACIFIC OKEY DOKEY should find this group to his liking. (2) AMASA AL is not out of this by far.

Race 7

(5) TEXAS CAVIAR leaves the 8-hole, and with a complete meltdown of the early leaders, this pacing miss could boss these. (6) I KNOW NOTHING rallied strongly for the place spot last out. (4) DONT BLAME HER can be right square in the mix.

Race 8

(3) SIMPLY BUSINESS has fine speed. Gelding's last try indicates he is ready to put his best foot forward. (2) EXPENSIVE TOY has wheeled off two straight victories. (7) JOLLY LESTER could land a share.

Race 9

(3) THISTHATNTHEOTHER moves inside and did flash some early zip three trips ago; gets the nod. (4) FLYING MOCHA is a very consistent pacing mare; main danger in this event. (1) MACH THIS WAY was sent down the road last out for all the glory.

Race 10

(4) ANTIGUA HANOVER has tactical speed and could take this with a fine-timed drive from Bartlett. (2) FRONTIERPAN retains the two slot and Brennan stays aboard; player. (3) STORMUNN raced evenly in her latest; don't overlook.

Race 11

(2) JAILHOUSE FUNK posted an even finish in his last one. Trotter could get back on the winning track with a perfect trip. (1) RINGSIDE MUSCLE was nailed for win honors last out; big threat. (3) HAULIN LASER just got up for the show spot recently; watch out.

Race 12

(2) I DO IT MYSELF scored her last two tries. Should keep on her winning ways tonight. (1) BIJOU THEATER moves back to the fence where she got the job done two trips ago; dangerous. (5) SUMMER SNOW could land a share of the purse.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Arlington (5th) Geometry, 4-1
(9th) Gostosa, 7-2


Belterra Park (3rd) Stormin Greeley, 8-1
(6th) Glory to Three, 7-2


Canterbury (4th) Mount Eagle, 3-1
(5th) Shal Pal's Castle, 5-1


Charles Town (1st) Crowned With Gold, 7-2
(7th) Twenty Black, 3-1


Delaware Park (5th) Bluegrass Chat, 5-1
(8th) Good Chemistry, 3-1


Del Mar (2nd) She's Flush, 7-2
(5th) Empire Cat, 7-2


Evangeline Downs (3rd) Harry Long Legs, 6-1
(6th) Aaron's Tornado, 4-1


Finger Lakes (3rd) Let's Discuss, 6-1
(6th) Miss Dragon Lady, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Mile High City, 9-2
(7th) Jamie's Dancer, 5-1


Indiana Grand (6th) Bright Harborlites, 5-1
(7th) Max's Defence, 4-1


Louisiana Downs (2nd) Honor Najran, 5-1
(7th) El Zarro, 3-1


Penn National (1st) Echoes of Thunder, 7-2
(8th) Shoobie, 3-1


Prairie Meadows (6th) Dark and Deep, 6-1
(8th) Right Squall, 3-1


Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Wild for Love, 4-1
(8th) Seventy West, 7-2


Santa Rosa (3rd) Tenille, 4-1
(6th) Parsky, 7-2


Saratoga (3rd) Thirst for Glory, 3-1
(8th) Santa Elf, 8-1
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday 3:10 PM MLB

(955) CHICAGO CUBS at (956) COLORADO ROCKIES

Take: (955) CHICAGO CUBS -113

Let’s get the trend out of the way at the outset. Pitchers making their Coors debuts are not generally good bets. This ballpark can do a real psyche job on even the best arms in the game. Plus, the Rockies have over the years been a rather inhospitable host, so generally speaking, looking to fade the Coors first-timers have been profitable.

Nevertheless, while this is the Coors baptismal fire for Cubs rookie Kyle Hendricks, I like his chances today. Hendricks is probably pitching a little over his head right now, which is not especially unusual for rooks that hitters haven’t seen. Hendricks is going to be a decent big league starter, but I think the buzz about him being a potential front line guy are a bit over the top. He just doesn’t fit that profile, although I suppose anything is possible. But this is a pitch to contact hurler who will do well when he gets lots of grounders, and will probably struggle when he doesn’t. I don’t see the swing and miss rates to be good enough for Hendricks to be an ace or even a deuce. But a solid innings eater in the 3 or 4 slot absolutely looks reasonable.

So maybe I am not as high as some on Hendricks, but I sure like him a whole lot better than Johan Flande. The Rockies rookie doesn’t really look to me like a pitcher who belongs on a 25-man big league roster. The stuff just isn’t good enough, and the fact that Flande is already 28 pretty much eliminates the ceiling being very high. Flande is pitching for the big club because they ran out of arms and ended up literally having to raid the back end of their AAA team’s rotation. That’s the former residence of Flande.

Not to just annihilate Flande, but it’s also concerning that his velocity has dropped considerably in his two most recent starts. That’s not great news when matching up against a Cubs team that is decidedly more productive against lefties. So Colorado’s offensive edge, while still there in this conflict, is not what it could be.

The bad news for the Cubs is that with this being an afternoon game at Coors, the bullpen is probably going to get involved here. Of course, there’s good news of sorts on that count, as that also means likely multiple frames for the Rockies bullpen, which is about as soft as it can possibly get.

I made the Cubs -120 in this game, so the early number certainly provided some ample value on the visitors. That line has shifted, and as I’m writing this, it’s pretty much Cubs -113 as the most widely available number. At that price, given what I feel is a substantial pitching advantage, I’ll have to make the rare road chalk call on the Cubs.
 
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Jim Feist

Comp MLB Pick for Thursday, August 7, 2014: 9:40 PM EST

(973) KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS (974) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, August 7th, 2014, comes in baseball as the Royals and Diamondbacks meet in Arizona. Kansas City is a long way from home, playing good defense on this long trip. Jeremy Guthrie is off a terrific game, a 1-0 win as he ran his record to 7-9 as he picked up the win on Friday facing the Athletics, allowing no runs on three hits over six innings while striking out six hitters. The under is 18-7-1 in Guthrie's last 26 road starts. Kansas City's offense is 18th in baseball in runs scored and loses the DH for this series. The under is 17-7 in Diamondbacks last 24 interleague games as an underdog. Arizona is 17th in runs scored, 23rd in on base percentage and the under is 19-9-1 in the Diamondbacks last 29 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Play the KC Royals/Arizona Under the total.
 
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Art Aronson

Cleveland Indians vs. Cincinnati Reds

1* Bonus Play on the Cincinnati Reds -123

The Reds have dominated the Tribe at the Great American Ballpark of late and I think we are getting them a good price in this matchup. Take note that I won with Cincinnati yesterday as well as a “paid” selection. Cleveland will go with T.J. House (1-2, 4.09 ERA) who is coming off his first solid start of the season; House went five innings and allowed zero runs in a no decision against Texas. Note though that House is 0-2 with a 4.78 ERA on the road this year and hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in any of his last three outings. The Reds will counter with Homer Bailey (8-5, 3.89 ERA) who looks to be hitting his stride; Bailey allowed one run over seven innings in a no decision against the Marlins in his last start. Note that Bailey's allowed only two runs in his last fifteen innings of work and the efforts have dropped his ERA to a respectable 3.89. Bailey would struggle early in the year but looks like he's starting to lock things in now; at home the right-hander is 5-2 with a 3.43 ERA this season. The Reds are 6-0 at home versus the Indians the past three years after yesterday’s beatdown victory. Additionally, Cincinnati is 10-5 as a favorite of in the -125 to -150 range this season and I like that trend to continue in this favorable matchup. Cleveland has been superb on the road but is a sub-par 23-35 away from friendly confines this season. Consider paying a very fair price to get Bailey and the Reds.

AAA Sports
 
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Jimmy Adams

NFLX New England Patriots vs. Washington Redskins

Bonus Play Washington Redskins +1-110

Betting the NFL preseason is a completely different ballgame than the regular season. It can also be a great time for experienced bettors to capitalize. There is no other time of the year where coaches will tell you exactly what they’re going to do. We need to look at factors such as, how long will the starters be playing? Can we catch a team that will be playing their 1st string against the opponents 2nd or 3rd? How many snaps will the starting QB take? How good is his backup? Finding out the answers to all of these questions, along with many more, give a “sharp” bettor a distinct advantage in the preseason.

It’s a new year for the Washington Redskins under 1st year head coach Jay Gruden. Gruden is noted as an offensive minded coach who is considered largely responsible for the success of Andy Dalton. This is also a huge game for Robert Griffin III. All reports out of the Redskins camp are that things are going extremely well for RG3. He has a lot to prove and should play well in this one. The Skins also added WR DeSean Jackson, who will be a huge threat for opposing defenses.

Last year Tom Brady’s 60.5% completion percentage was his lowest in 10 years. That was due to lack of weapons, and will most likely improve this season will the health of Rob Gronkowski and addition of WR Brandon LaFell. Bill Belichick divulges pretty much nothing when it comes to game plan. We can assume that Brady won’t be around for too long in this one, as he’s an experienced and polished QB and there’s simply no reason to risk injury. The Patriots also lost goal line running back LeGarrette Blount. He came on strong last season and will be a huge loss for this team.

The Redskins come into this game with a little more urgency and a need to prove something. RG3 will come out in good form and put on a show for the home fans in their preseason opener. Take the Redskins.
 

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