Thursday's Best Bet
August 24, 2017
Thursday NFL Preseason Best Bet
Carolina vs. Jacksonville
HeritageSports.eu Odds: Carolina (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville (+1.5); Total set at 42.5
Jacksonville has already made plenty of noise this week as their starting QB position is now completely up for grabs. Given that Week 3 of the preseason is generally considered the “dress rehearsal” for NFL teams, this is not exactly the greatest time to open up a QB competition.
But Blake Bortles should have been at the end of his rope long before now, and given the talent around him, Jacksonville can't wait around or “waste” another year believing he's still there future. Chad Henne is a more than capable short-term option if the Jags decide to go that route, but for our betting purposes tonight, this competition might not be a bad thing at all.
When there were initial rumblings early this week that the Jags had been considering going this route, the line on this game saw some action. There were already rumblings of Carolina QB Cam Newton preparing to get the start (which he will) and when you combine that with Jacksonville's QB issues, it's no wonder we saw the line move the way it did.
Carolina went from opening as a 1-point or pick'em 'dog to now laying almost two points on the road. Newton getting his first action is a big bump no question, but nobody really wants anything to do with the Jags right now, and given how they've been everyone's favorite “sleeper” pick the past few off-seasons, you wonder if everyone is completely fed up with this team.
Yet, for our purposes tonight, with the way the line movement has gone and the QB news for both teams shaken out, I actually believe that a QB competition in Jacksonville today is a good thing. Let me explain...
First off, the first-team guys at playmaking positions (WR, RB, TE) should all be out there for at least the first half, meaning both Henne and Bortles have plenty of trust in their teammates out there and can cut it loose. With a starting job on the line now, neither guy is going to hold back anything during their time on the field, and that could actually lead to the Jags offense looking like the one that everyone's thought has had great potential the past few years.
Jacksonville has already shown this preseason that they've got big-play potential with two TD's of over 78 yards in Week 1, and when you combine some of those with methodical, lengthy scoring drives – a Chad Henne speciality – you've now become an offensive attack that is extremely tough to stop.
Secondly, yes, Cam Newton is making his preseason debut, but even if the plan is to have him in there for the first half, you've got to believe the Panthers are always going to stay on the side of caution in that regard. Facing live bullets takes some getting used to, and Panthers backers will be quite disappointed to see Newton come out after the first quarter or something like that if that ends up being the case.
The Panthers offense has looked good without him so far with 27 points scored in each of their two preseason tilts so far, but there can't be much, if any motivation on Carolina's sideline, other than to be happy to see Newton get some quality reps under his belt. It could very well be an attitude of “get in, get it done, get out of town” for the Panthers, so fading that 80% + ML bets that Carolina's already gotten according to VegasInsider.com adds a bit of intrigue to a Jacksonville play as well.
So while going against line moves like this is not something I'm looking to do often, I simply don't agree with the move with how things have played out. If it was just Newton returning and no QB battle in Jacksonville I'd like Carolina and the move much more, but with the line flipping and then Jacksonville coming out and stating that their starting QB position is up for grabs, there is just so much more value in a Jags ML play now.
Anything can happen in the preseason in terms of wins and losses, but the Jags have a huge motivational edge now tonight with both QB's competing for playing time, and they really have nowhere to go but up after last week. The Jags are now a disgraced public darling in the eyes of the many who've had high hopes for this organization the past few years, and now that they look like they are at the lowest of their lows with no idea who there QB will be in two weeks, I've got no problem buying in, at least a little bit.
HeritageSports.eu Best Bet: Jacksonville ML (+105)
August 24, 2017
Thursday NFL Preseason Best Bet
Carolina vs. Jacksonville
HeritageSports.eu Odds: Carolina (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville (+1.5); Total set at 42.5
Jacksonville has already made plenty of noise this week as their starting QB position is now completely up for grabs. Given that Week 3 of the preseason is generally considered the “dress rehearsal” for NFL teams, this is not exactly the greatest time to open up a QB competition.
But Blake Bortles should have been at the end of his rope long before now, and given the talent around him, Jacksonville can't wait around or “waste” another year believing he's still there future. Chad Henne is a more than capable short-term option if the Jags decide to go that route, but for our betting purposes tonight, this competition might not be a bad thing at all.
When there were initial rumblings early this week that the Jags had been considering going this route, the line on this game saw some action. There were already rumblings of Carolina QB Cam Newton preparing to get the start (which he will) and when you combine that with Jacksonville's QB issues, it's no wonder we saw the line move the way it did.
Carolina went from opening as a 1-point or pick'em 'dog to now laying almost two points on the road. Newton getting his first action is a big bump no question, but nobody really wants anything to do with the Jags right now, and given how they've been everyone's favorite “sleeper” pick the past few off-seasons, you wonder if everyone is completely fed up with this team.
Yet, for our purposes tonight, with the way the line movement has gone and the QB news for both teams shaken out, I actually believe that a QB competition in Jacksonville today is a good thing. Let me explain...
First off, the first-team guys at playmaking positions (WR, RB, TE) should all be out there for at least the first half, meaning both Henne and Bortles have plenty of trust in their teammates out there and can cut it loose. With a starting job on the line now, neither guy is going to hold back anything during their time on the field, and that could actually lead to the Jags offense looking like the one that everyone's thought has had great potential the past few years.
Jacksonville has already shown this preseason that they've got big-play potential with two TD's of over 78 yards in Week 1, and when you combine some of those with methodical, lengthy scoring drives – a Chad Henne speciality – you've now become an offensive attack that is extremely tough to stop.
Secondly, yes, Cam Newton is making his preseason debut, but even if the plan is to have him in there for the first half, you've got to believe the Panthers are always going to stay on the side of caution in that regard. Facing live bullets takes some getting used to, and Panthers backers will be quite disappointed to see Newton come out after the first quarter or something like that if that ends up being the case.
The Panthers offense has looked good without him so far with 27 points scored in each of their two preseason tilts so far, but there can't be much, if any motivation on Carolina's sideline, other than to be happy to see Newton get some quality reps under his belt. It could very well be an attitude of “get in, get it done, get out of town” for the Panthers, so fading that 80% + ML bets that Carolina's already gotten according to VegasInsider.com adds a bit of intrigue to a Jacksonville play as well.
So while going against line moves like this is not something I'm looking to do often, I simply don't agree with the move with how things have played out. If it was just Newton returning and no QB battle in Jacksonville I'd like Carolina and the move much more, but with the line flipping and then Jacksonville coming out and stating that their starting QB position is up for grabs, there is just so much more value in a Jags ML play now.
Anything can happen in the preseason in terms of wins and losses, but the Jags have a huge motivational edge now tonight with both QB's competing for playing time, and they really have nowhere to go but up after last week. The Jags are now a disgraced public darling in the eyes of the many who've had high hopes for this organization the past few years, and now that they look like they are at the lowest of their lows with no idea who there QB will be in two weeks, I've got no problem buying in, at least a little bit.
HeritageSports.eu Best Bet: Jacksonville ML (+105)
