Thursday 7/31/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Thursday Bonus Play 7:05 PM MLB

(905) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at (906) WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Take: (906) WASHINGTON NATIONALS -150

I think this might be the biggest chalk piece I’ve used all season as a Bonus Play. I’m not a fan of heavy favorites as a rule. But I’m having a tough time ignoring this one.

This is primarily anti-Phillies and I think maybe sadly, anti-Cliff Lee. As for the Phillies, they’re flat out horrible. The team is old and decrepit and I’m not sure how much they care right now. Of course, if the right Cliff Lee shows up tonight, that goes straight out the window. Unfortunately, I don’t foresee many appearances by the right Cliff Lee moving forward this season.

I think Lee is still hurt. He went on the DL with what was called an elbow strain. I am not an expert on injuries. But those who are all say the same thing. An elbow strain is an elbow tear. What I do know is that the Lee we’re seeing right now is not the guy we’re used to seeing. He’s had two starts since coming off the DL, and neither was good. He also struggled in two rehab appearances before rejoining the parent club. His velocity is down, his command has been spotty with too many pitches cutting dead center, and he really looks like a shell of the outstanding pitcher we’ve enjoyed for many years. There is reportedly zero interest from contenders in trading for Lee, and that speaks volumes about where he’s perceived to be right now.

I think Lee is damaged goods right now, and apparently so do the guys who make the lines. Sure, there’s no doubt the Nationals re better than the Phillies. But a healthy Cliff Lee getting priced like this? I’d be all over it as a rule. Instead, I’m thinking the price isn’t high enough.

Gio Gonzalez should need no more than a quality start to be positioned to win tonight. Maybe Lee can uses his savvy and guile to gut out a showing that gives the Phillies a shot at the upset, but I just don’t see it. The Nats can be very tough on lefties as it is, and the Phillies attack isn’t really daunting against anyone at this point. Big price to be sure, but the Nationals look to be likely winners.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

MLB Comp Pick for Thursday, July 31, 2014: 7:05 PM ET

MLB (917) SEATTLE MARINERS VS (918) CLEVELAND INDIANS

Take: (917) SEATTLE MARINERS

Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, July 31st, 2014, comes in baseball as Mariners and the Indians meet in Cleveland. Seattle has tough defense and a winning road record. They also have a quality veteran arm going in 35-year old Chris Young (9-6, 3.04 ERA). Opponents are hitting just .212 off him. The Mariners are 9-4 in their last 13 road games, 19-7 in their last 26 games as a road favorite. Cleveland starter Zach McAllister (3-6, 5.65 ERA) is really struggling, with the team 2-7 his last nine starts. McAllister gave up six runs (five earned) on eight hits while striking out three over four innings in Saturday's loss to the Royals. McAllister was spotted with a 5-0 lead after two innings but coughed it all up in the disappointing performance. After starting the season 3-0, he's 0-6 in his last nine starts. He'll take a 5.65 ERA with him into his next scheduled start, a home game against the Mariners. The Mariners are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings, so grab the visitors. Play Seattle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Art Aronson

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

1* Bonus Play on the Detroit Tigers -190

The visiting Tigers will send Drew Smyly (6-9, 3.77 ERA) to the hill as they look to win the rubber match in this series; the tall right-hander fanned 11 batters and gave up just two earned runs in 5 2/3’s innings in his last outing but had to settle for the tough luck loss. Note that Smyly is a respectable 4-3 with a 3.99 ERA in 10 games against the White Sox life time. He gave up two earned runs while striking out seven in six innings his last outing versus Chicago. The White Sox will send lefty John Danks (9-6, 4.40 ERA) to mound to counter; Danks is an unremarkable 6-10 with a 5.03 ERA in 21 starts against the Tigers. Note that Detroit is 16-7 when hosting the White Sox the last three seasons and 29-18 in all meetings over that time period. And note that Chicago is just 14-24 in day games this year. Consider laying the juice to get the Tigers at home.

AAA Sports

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Fargo

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres

Bonus Play St. Louis Cardinals +104

The Cardinals will be out to avoid the sweep this afternoon in San Diego as they have dropped the first two games of this series. The offense has been non-existent as they have managed to plate only one run in each of the first two games and they have now gone three straight games scoring just a single run. The good news is that St. Louis has been a great bounce back team as the Cardinals are 9-0 in their last nine games after losing the first two games of a series. San Diego has been very streaky of late and it brings in a four-game home winning streak to the series finale. Overall, the Padres are two games over .500 at home but they are still hitting a mere .224 at home which is the worst home average in baseball by a significant amount. San Diego is 10-22 this season after having won two of its last three games. It has not been the season that many expected for Shelby Miller after putting together a great rookie campaign last year. Still, he is coming off a solid outing last time out after spending some time in the bullpen and I expect him to carry that into this game. His best work has come during the day where he has a 3.10 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in eight starts and the Cardinals are 9-1 in his last 10 starts after two or more consecutive losses. The Padres counter with Odrisamer Despaigne and he is far from a household name but has been exceptional since joining the rotation. He has allowed two earned runs or less in all six of his starts but his last game was pretty ugly as he went just 3.2 innings while allowing six hits and five walks. Here, we play on road underdogs with a winning percentage between .510 and .540 that are playing with double revenge playing a team with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. This situation is 41-20 (67.2 percent) since 1997. Play (903) St. Louis Cardinals

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins

Thursday MLB Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports

Take #907 Cincinnati Reds -119 over Miami Marlins

(Thursday, 7:10pm EST) The season is slipping away from the Cincinnati Reds and it doesn’t appear that they are going to be able stop it. That’s because two of their best players are on the disabled list in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. The Reds have are just 2-10 since the All-Star break and have now fallen below the .500 mark overall. But one guy they’ve been able to consistently rely on is ace Johnny Cueto. The 28-year old checks in at 11-6 with a 2.08 ERA in 22 starts in 2014. Amazingly, the consistent Cueto has allowed more than three earned runs just twice in those 22 outings. The Reds haven’t been able to plate many runs lately with their current injury situation, but they shouldn’t need many on Thursday. The Miami Marlins will have their work cut out for themselves against Cueto, and that will put the pressure on right-hander Tom Koehler. He’s had a solid season so far, but Koehler isn’t going to overpower anyone. He’s your prototypical run of the mill middle-rotation guy with a 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 21 starts. The Marlins have been playing better of late and have been talking about making some trades to go for it. I don’t buy it one bit and I’d be surprised if Miami stays in contention for much longer. They’re playing a bit over their heads this season due to some fortunate outcomes. They are 25-17 in one-run games compared to 17-23 for Cincinnati. Those records tend to regress towards .500 over time, so that means the Reds get better and the Marlins worse. Even with the injuries, this Reds teams is better and they have one of the top pitchers in the game on the mound. Take Cincinnati at a relatively cheap price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

R&R Totals

Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians

FREE MLB Over-Under

UNDER 8.5 -106

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Janus

Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians

Thursday's Free MLB Pick --Seattle Mariners +122

This is a great spot to back the Mariners. Cleveland's Chris McAllister hasn't recorded a win since April 21 and has an awful 7.65 ERA over his last 9 nine starts. On top of that, McAllister is 0-2 with a 5.60 ERA over 5 career starts against the Mariners. I'll take my chances on Seattle to pull out the victory behind Chris Young, who has a 2.12 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .197 average over his last 8 starts.

Key Trends - Seattle is 14-5 in their last 19 road games with a total set at 7-8.5, 9-4 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 7-3 in their last 10 road games against a right-handed starter.

System - Play Against - Home teams (CLEVELAND) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL) are 16-40 (29%) against the money line in July games over the last 5 seasons. BET THE MARINERS +122!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NEWSLETTER Major League Baseball Prediction From Allen Eastman

Take Cincinnati over Miami (7:10 p.m., Thursday, July 31)
I have been red-hot on the diamond, earning over $6,000 in profit over the last six weeks. I have gone 7-2 with my top plays and have gone 17-8 with my last 25 picks overall. I think this is another winner, and I am going hard at my sixth straight winning season on the diamond. I like the Reds here. I think I am going to get a good price on Johnny Cueto, and he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. I think he might be the best. Cueto has a WHIP of just 0.93 and an ERA of just 2.08, and he will shut down the Marlins in this one. Miami is backing Tom Koehler, who’s ERA has gone up to the point where now it is almost 4.00. Koehler is approaching 130 innings on the year. He is starting to wear down, and he has lost five of his last eight starts. The Reds are playing hard without two of their best players. And they will catch Miami in a letdown spot here after the Nationals. I will back Cueto. Take the Reds and they should be underdogs here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NEWSLETTER CFL Football Prediction From Raphael Esparza

Take #422 Hamilton (-3.5) over Winnipeg (7 p.m., Thursday, July 31)
So the Tiger-Cats are coming off a big home win over Ottawa last week, 33-23, and got the big cover at home. Hamilton needed that win because they started off the season with 3-Straight road losses, but 2 of those road losses were by 4-points or less. Winnipeg has won 3 out of 4 games this season, but last year Hamilton easily beat the Blue Bombers in Hamilton, 37-7. Thought this line would be around -4.5 or -5 Hamilton, but I guess the oddsmakers look at the standings and not reality, and I believe the Tiger Cats have great value here. Winnipeg is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings, and the Blue Bombers are 1-5 ATS against a team with a losing record. Hamilton is 5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, and again Thursday night the Tiger Cats will win Back-to-Back home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Thursday, July 31


Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado - Ques Thurs

Gonzalez is dealing with soreness in his right ankle and left knee which caused him to miss Wednesday's game. He is questionable for Thursday against the Cubs.


Chris Davis, Baltimore - Ques Thurs

Davis is dealing with an illness and has missed the last two games. He is questionable for Thursday against the Angels.


Favorable weather conditions for Tigers Thursday

Weather forecasts are calling for wind to blow in from right field at Comerica Park as the Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox Thursday afternoon.

The Tigers have posted a straight-up record of 10-3 when wind blows in from right field at Comerica this season. The Over/Under count in similar conditions is 7-4-2 on the season.

Detroit is a big -192 home fave with a total of 9 posted for this matchup. John Danks gets the start for the visitors while Drew Smyly is slated to start for the Tigers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

Thursday, July 31


Line on the move in Thursday night game

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers might be 4-1 straight up and against the spread, proving to be one of the best bets of the early CFL season, but that hasn't stopped line moves showing support of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats for this week's Thursday night game.

The Bombers opened as 3.5-point road dogs at the LV Superbook for the Week 6 matchup and that moved to +4 early Wednesday and then +4.5 later on in the day. In fact, the majority of wagering outlets have adjusted their pointspread to Ti-Cats -4.5.

The East Division has been the weaker division in the league by some margin. All four teams have just one victory, but the Ti-Cats have been somewhat profitable at the betting window, sporting a 3-1 ATS record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Thursday, July 31

Umpire trend you should know for Thursday

Road teams have cashed in for bettors with Adam Hamari calling balls and strikes lately, posting a record of 11-1 when he's working the plate.

Hamari is one of the top road umps in the big leagues so far this season. Of the umpires with at least 10 games working the dish, Hamari ranks fourth in terms of road team winning percentage (68.4 percent).

He'll be calling balls and strikes in Kansas City as the Royals host the Minnesota Twins Thursday evening. The Twins are currently +166 road dogs in the matchup.


Over a hot bet with Arrieta pitching at Wrigley

The Over is 4-0 in Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta's last four starts in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.

Recent starts at Wrigley (versus Miami, Cincinnati, Atlanta and St. Louis) all resulted in Overs, but Arrieta has pitched fairly well in those outings. In those four starts, the righty has allowed just seven earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work.

Arrieta is scheduled to get the start for the Cubbies as they host the Colorado Rockies Thursday afternoon. Pedro Hernandez is slated to get the ball for the Rockies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Thursday, July 31


Pitching Notes

* Johnny Cueto will start for the Reds on Thursday and has been locked in this month. The Reds ace is 3-1 for the month in five starts with four out of five unders during that span, allowing no more than three earned runs in each July appearance.

* Clayton Kershaw starts on Thursday at home against the Dodgers and will be looking to continue his historic summer where every one of his starts has been a must see appearance. Kershaw is 9-0 in his last ten starts, dropping a July 20 start in St. Louis against the Cardinals as his only blemish.


Hitting Notes

* Baltimore will be hoping that slugger Manny Machado has more heroics in store during the O's pivotal series with the Los Angeles Angels. Machado kept Baltimore ahead of the Blue Jays by 2.5 games in the AL East race with a walkoff home run in the bottom of the 12th inning. Machado is 4-10 with four RBI in his last two games.

* New York Yankees pickup Chase Headley has been on fire since coming to the pinstripes. The .239 hitter has a hit in every game since July 24, including three RBI's as his addition has helped keep New York from falling too far behind the Jays and Orioles.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Thursday, July 31


Red Sox send Lester, Gomes to A's for Cespedes

According to multiple industry sources, the Red Sox have sent Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes to the Athletics in exchange for power hitting outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The Athletics are loading for bear in their rotation, believing that power pitching is what wins in the postseason.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, July 31

Colorado at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 ET
Matzek: COLORADO 20-51 as a road underdog of +125 to +175
Arrieta: 13-5 TSR after a loss

St Louis at San Deigo, 3:40 ET
Miller: 9-1 TSR after 2 or more consecutive losses
Despaigne: SAN DIEGO 14-25 after 2 straight games where they committed no errors

Philadelphia at Washingto, 7:05 ET
Lee: 17-10 TSR as a road underdog of +125 to +175
Gonzalez: WASHINGTON 17-23 after a one run win

Cincinnati at Miami, 7:10 ET
Cueto: 36-14 TSR as a favorite
Koehler: MIAMI 12-4 OVER after a one run loss

Pittsburgh at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Locke: PITTSBURGH 70-50 after a loss
Collmenter: ARIZONA 17-29 after a win

Atlanta at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Teheran: ATLANTA 10-21 in road games against NL West opponents
Kershaw: 15-0 TSR against NL East opponents

Chicago White Sox at Detroit, 1:05 ET
Danks: CHI WHITE SOX 13-11 as a road underdog of +150 to +200
Smyly: 0-5 TSR in home games after a win

LA Angels at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Skaggs: LA ANGELS 70-53 OVER after a loss
Norris: 15-6 TSR as a home underdog of +100 to +125

Seattle at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Young: SEATTLE 29-21 in road games
McAllister: CLEVELAND 30-43 in home games after shutting out their opponent

Minnesota at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Correia: 60-53 TSR after a loss
Ventura: KANSAS CITY 0-6 as a home favorite of -175 to -250

Toronto at Houston, 8:10 ET
Hutchison: TORONTO 3-10 revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite
Cosart: HOUSTON 10-2 after scoring 8 runs or more

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Thursday, July 31


Tigers acquire Price from Rays

In a three-team blockbuster deal just before the trade deadline, the Detroit Tigers acquired ace David Price from the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday.

Detroit sent center fielder Austin Jackson to Seattle while Tampa Bay received left-hander Drew Smyly from the Tigers and infielder Nick Franklin from the Mariners, ESPN.com reported.


Yankees add Prado, Drew at deadline

Outfielder Martin Prado and infielder Stephen Drew were acquired by the New York Yankees as the clock expired on the non-waiver trade deadline Thursday afternoon.

The Yankees sent slugger Peter O'Brien to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Prado, who is in the middle of a four-year, $40 million contract. Prado can play seven positions, and is likely to see time in the outfield and at second base for the Yankees.

Prado, 30, is hitting .270 with five homers and 42 RBI this season. He has a career .290 batting average with the Braves and Diamondbacks and primarily played third base in Arizona.

Drew, a shortstop with the Boston Red Sox, joins the Yankees as a likely second baseman. He was traded for light-hitting Kelly Johnson, who signed a one-year deal to platoon with Brian Roberts on Dec. 6. Roberts was designated for assignment Thursday, giving New York 10 days to trade or release the veteran.


Orioles acquire LHP Miller from Red Sox

BALTIMORE -- The Baltimore Orioles bolstered their bullpen by acquiring left-hander Andrew Miller from the Boston Red Sox for minor leaguer left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez just about an hour before the end of the non-waver trade deadline Thursday.

Miller was pursued by several clubs, most notably the Detroit Tigers, before the Orioles swooped in and made the deal. Miller gives Baltimore manager Buck Showalter a fourth left-hander in the bullpen so he can create better matchups against both right- and left-handed hitters.

Miller, 29, has a 2.34 ERA (11 earned runs over 42.1 innings) with 13 walks and 69 strikeouts in 50 appearances for the Red Sox this season. He has held left-handed hitters to a .150/.203/.217 line in 65 plate appearances. He has been almost equally successful against righties, holding them to a .180/.279/.258 line in 105 plate appearances.


Braves pick up Bonifacio from Cubs

The Atlanta Braves bolstered their roster for the final two months of the season, acquiring outfielder Emilio Bonifacio, left-handed pitcher James Russell and a cash consideration from the Chicago Cubs for switch-hitting catching prospect Victor Caratini.

The 29-year-old Bonifacio batted .279 with two home runs and 18 RBIs in 69 games for the Cubs this year. He joined the Cubs in February after being designated for assignment by the Kansas City Royals.

Russell, 28, was 0-2 with one save and a 3.51 ERA in 44 relief appearances this season for the Cubs. Since the beginning of 2010, Russell is 10-16 with three saves and a 3.87 ERA in 316 outings.

The 20-year-old Caratini was a second-round choice by the Braves in the 2013 draft and ranked by Baseball America as the eighth-best prospect in the their farm system.

In 87 games with Class A Rome this season, Caratini was hitting .279 with five home runs and 42 RBIs. Last year, he batted .


Marlins add Cosart in deal with Astros

The Miami Marlins acquired right-hander Jarred Cosart from the Houston Astros on Thursday in a six-player deal.

Going to Miami with Cosart were infielder-outfielder Kiki Hernandez and outfielder Austin Wates. Headed to Houston were third baseman Colin Moran, outfielder Jake Marisnick, right-hander Francis Martes and a 2015 compensatory draft pick.

The Marlins, who have won six straight games, added Cosart to their rotation for a possible playoff push in the National League. Cosart was 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 20 starts this season for the Astros.


Nationals acquire SS Cabrera from Indians

WASHINGTON -- The Washington Nationals gave up part of their future in an exchange for a veteran infielder to help with their playoff push when they traded infielder Zach Walters to the Cleveland Indians for shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera an All-Star in 2011 and 2012, on Thursday.

Washington first-year manager Matt Williams said before Thursday's game with the Philadelphia Phillies that Cabrera will see most of his time at second baseman, where he has played 162 games (149 starts) in his major league career. Cabrera has played 730 games at shortstop in his career and is a lifetime .270 hitter in 3,460 at bats.


Brewers acquire Parra from D-backs

The Milwaukee Brewers acquired Gold Glove outfielder Gerardo Parra from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for a pair of minor league prospects, the teams announced Thursday.

Outfielder Mitch Haniger and left-handed pitcher Anthony Banda were sent to the Diamondbacks.

Parra is expected to join the team Friday in St. Louis.

"The addition of Parra gives us a veteran player who helps to balance our lineup and also brings Gold Glove defense," general manager Doug Melvin said in a statement.

Parra, 27, is batting .259 with six home runs and 30 RBIs in 104 games this season. He has made 98 starts.

Signing as a non-drafted free agent on Aug. 30, 2004, Parra had spent his entire professional career in the Diamondbacks organization. He is a career .274 hitter with 39 home runs and 250 RBIs in 787 major league games (2009-14).

Parra, known for his defense, has won National League Gold Glove Awards in left field (2011) and right field (2013).

Haniger, 24, was selected by the Brewers in the supplemental first round of the 2012 draft. He batted .255 with 10 home runs and 34 RBIs in 67 games at Double-A Huntsville this season.

Banda, 20, was selected by the Brewers in the 10th round of the 2012 draft. He was 6-6 with a 3.66 ERA and two saves in 20 games (14 starts) at Class A Wisconsin this season.

To make room for Parra on the 25-man roster, outfielder Logan Schafer will be optioned to Triple-A Nashville.


Mariners acquire Denorfia from Padres

The Seattle Mariners acquired outfielder Chris Denorfia from the San Diego Padres for two minor league players on Thursday.

The Mariners sent outfielder Abaraham Almonte and pitcher Stephen Kohlscheen to the Padres.

Denorfia, 34, is batting .242 this year with one home run and 16 RBIs in 89 games. He is a career .275 hitter over his nine years in the majors.

Almonte, who began the season as the Mariners' starting center fielder, is batting .267 with six home runs, 10 doubles, 31 RBIs and seven stolen bases in 72 games since his early May demotion to Triple-A Tacoma.

Kohlscheen is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 38 relief appearances between Double-A Jackson and Tacoma. He also has six saves and has 55 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings.


Cardinals net RHP Lackey from Red Sox

While whiffing on the No. 1 starters they were chasing, the St. Louis Cardinals landed another middle-of-the-rotation veteran Thursday, acquiring John Lackey from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for starting pitcher Joe Kelly and Allen Craig, who can play first base and the corner outfield positions.

The Cardinals also received minor league left-handed pitcher Corey Littrell and cash considerations.

Lackey is under contract through 2015 and comes to St. Louis one day after the Cardinals acquired another former ace, Justin Masterson, from the Cleveland Indians.

The teams will play in St. Louis next week, when Lackey is likely to make one start.

Lackey was a Cy Young candidate earlier in his career with the Los Angeles Angels, but after signing a five-year, $75 million free agent contract with the Red Sox, he missed the 2012 season to have Tommy John elbow surgery.

Lackey is 11-7 with a 3.60 ERA this season, and was the third Red Sox starter to be moved. Jake Peavy was dealt to the San Francisco Giants last week and early Thursday, Boston sent staff ace Jon Lester to the Oakland Athletics for outfield Yoenis Cespedes.

 

[BOOKIEBUSTERS]

Where can I find FSG fantasysportsgametime? Is it on this forum?