Dave Cokin
Thursday Bonus Play 7:05 PM
(915) TORONTO BLUE JAYS (916) NEW YORK YANKEES
Take: (915) TORONTO BLUE JAYS -115
Dr. Jekyll, meet Mr. Hyde. Drew Hutchison has been a split personality this season for the Blue Jays. He’s great on the road and as ugly as it gets at home. The numbers are pretty amazing, actually.
Hutchison is a total gas can in Toronto. In five starts at Rogers, Hutchison is 1-3 with a disastrous 8.72/1.89 ERA/WHIP combo. But when Hutch takes the mound on the road, he turns into an All-Star caliber hurler. Nine starts, a 4-1 record, the team is 7-2 and Hutchison’s ERA/WHIP checks in at 1.70/0.74. There’s really no rational explanation I can arrive at for these remarkable splits, but the bottom line is that Hutchison is go with when he wears the road uni and a fade machine north of the border.
David Phelps will make the start for the Yankees tonight, and the righty was very solid in his last outing. However, the same cannot be said for the three previous Phelps starts. The key for Phelps is his control. When he avoids walks, he can be effective. But when Phelps issues the free passes, it often leads to crooked innings. I’m still not sure whether Phelps is best suited to starting or relieving. Fact is, the Yankees are sure themselves, which probably explains why he works both roles.
Toronto has not snapped out its recent hitting slump. The Jays were due for some regression following a ridiculous offensive surge, but they’re now at the point where they could use a breakout game. Season numbers definitely would favor the Jays here, but current hitting form tilts toward the Yankees. The same can be said for the respective bullpens as the road team has better full season stats, but more recent stats favor the Yankees.
This is mostly about backing the hot hand, or in this case the hot road arm of Drew Hutchison. I also don’t mind taking a shot against Phelps off a really good start, as he’s not the most consistent guy around. The price isn’t great but it’s acceptable, and I will side with the Blue Jays to salvage the series finale and avoid the sweep.