Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Thursday
MARINERS (Karns) at ORIOLES (Wilson) 12:35 PM
Take: MARINERS +113
If you’ve followed the plays I post here, there’s a very noticeable common theme with many of my baseball plays. I’m not very fond of pitchers who have very low K rates. Tyler Wilson fits into that category, and I’ll be playing against the Baltimore righty this morning.
Wilson has been serviceable this far, but he has also been somewhat fortunate. He’s about as pitch to contact as it gets, and while he’s doing a good job of not beating himself, I think it’s a matter of time before he starts getting at least a little beat up.
Nate Karns will start for Seattle in this game. Karns is proving to be a middle of the rotation rock. He’ll have the occasional high level outing, he’ll get beat up every now and then. But generally this is a pitcher who will get his six or seven innings in and will give his team a decent chance to get a win. That’s pretty much what I’m looking for from Karns today.
The downside of this game is that if it’s tight at the finish line, the Orioles have the far more trustworthy bullpen. The Mariners were actually posting some outstanding relief corps numbers, but I think that was a bit of a mirage and reality seems to be setting in lately.
Offensively, this is closer than many might think. I won’t argue that the Birds have the better overall attack, but it’s not by much and the fact is the Mariners have been extremely productive on the road, which explains their outstanding record away from Safeco so far this season.
I’m going with what I consider reasonable value here. I made this game Orioles -102, so while getting the Seattle side at roughly +113 isn’t exactly slam dunk material, it’s also good enough to warrant a wager. The Mariners are my choice in this game.
Bonus Play Thursday
MARINERS (Karns) at ORIOLES (Wilson) 12:35 PM
Take: MARINERS +113
If you’ve followed the plays I post here, there’s a very noticeable common theme with many of my baseball plays. I’m not very fond of pitchers who have very low K rates. Tyler Wilson fits into that category, and I’ll be playing against the Baltimore righty this morning.
Wilson has been serviceable this far, but he has also been somewhat fortunate. He’s about as pitch to contact as it gets, and while he’s doing a good job of not beating himself, I think it’s a matter of time before he starts getting at least a little beat up.
Nate Karns will start for Seattle in this game. Karns is proving to be a middle of the rotation rock. He’ll have the occasional high level outing, he’ll get beat up every now and then. But generally this is a pitcher who will get his six or seven innings in and will give his team a decent chance to get a win. That’s pretty much what I’m looking for from Karns today.
The downside of this game is that if it’s tight at the finish line, the Orioles have the far more trustworthy bullpen. The Mariners were actually posting some outstanding relief corps numbers, but I think that was a bit of a mirage and reality seems to be setting in lately.
Offensively, this is closer than many might think. I won’t argue that the Birds have the better overall attack, but it’s not by much and the fact is the Mariners have been extremely productive on the road, which explains their outstanding record away from Safeco so far this season.
I’m going with what I consider reasonable value here. I made this game Orioles -102, so while getting the Seattle side at roughly +113 isn’t exactly slam dunk material, it’s also good enough to warrant a wager. The Mariners are my choice in this game.
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp MLB Pick, Thursday, May 19, 2016 8:10 PM EST
(913) HOUSTON ASTROS VS (914) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, May 19, 2016 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox. A pair of strong pitchers are on the mound. Houston's offense has disappointed, leading the league in strikeouts. The Under is 36-17-6 when the Astros face the American League Central. Starter Collin McHugh has a solid strikeout to walk ratio and has allowed 11 total runs his last four starts (23 innings). The Under is 8-3 in McHugh's last 11 starts with 4 days of rest. Chicago has ace Chris Sale going, at 8-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Sale was outstanding again Friday night allowing just one run on six hits, he did not issue a walk, and struck out six in a complete game win over the Yankees. The Under is 8-3-1 when the White Sox are at home against a team with a losing record, plus 12-4 under when Sales is at home. And the Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Chicago. Play Houston/Chicago Under the total.
Jim Feist's Comp MLB Pick, Thursday, May 19, 2016 8:10 PM EST
(913) HOUSTON ASTROS VS (914) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, May 19, 2016 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox. A pair of strong pitchers are on the mound. Houston's offense has disappointed, leading the league in strikeouts. The Under is 36-17-6 when the Astros face the American League Central. Starter Collin McHugh has a solid strikeout to walk ratio and has allowed 11 total runs his last four starts (23 innings). The Under is 8-3 in McHugh's last 11 starts with 4 days of rest. Chicago has ace Chris Sale going, at 8-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Sale was outstanding again Friday night allowing just one run on six hits, he did not issue a walk, and struck out six in a complete game win over the Yankees. The Under is 8-3-1 when the White Sox are at home against a team with a losing record, plus 12-4 under when Sales is at home. And the Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Chicago. Play Houston/Chicago Under the total.
Scott Spreitzer
Mariners vs Orioles
Bonus Play Baltimore Orioles
I'm recommending a play on the Orioles on Thursday (day game). The Orioles look to take the rubber game of their series with the Mariners, while extending their run to 9-2 in their last 11 games, overall. Baltimore sends Tyler Wilson to the mound for his 8th appearance and 5th start in 2016. Wilson has allowed just five earned runs, 18 base runners, and one home run in 15 2/3 IP at home this season, for a 2.87 ERA & 1.15 WHIP, to go along with a .207 BAA. The young right-hander has now allowed a grand total of just seven earned runs in 27 career innings at Camden Yards. And while he's only in his second season, Wilson has done his best work in daytime outings. Nathan Karns goes for the Mariners on Thursday, and while his numbers are decent, the fact is, he's saddled with a 1.45 WHIP on the road. Karns will face a Baltimore offense that ranks 9th or better in home team batting average, OBP, and OPS. And the O's are one of MLB's elite at the plate with runners in scoring position, while the Mariners have struggled in this key offensive category. Finally, Wilson is backed by MLB's stingiest bullpen ERA. The M's come into this one having dropped four of their last five games, while the Orioles are on a 22-7 run at home and 4-0 in Wilson's last four starts against teams with a winning record. We're backing the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday afternoon. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Mariners vs Orioles
Bonus Play Baltimore Orioles
I'm recommending a play on the Orioles on Thursday (day game). The Orioles look to take the rubber game of their series with the Mariners, while extending their run to 9-2 in their last 11 games, overall. Baltimore sends Tyler Wilson to the mound for his 8th appearance and 5th start in 2016. Wilson has allowed just five earned runs, 18 base runners, and one home run in 15 2/3 IP at home this season, for a 2.87 ERA & 1.15 WHIP, to go along with a .207 BAA. The young right-hander has now allowed a grand total of just seven earned runs in 27 career innings at Camden Yards. And while he's only in his second season, Wilson has done his best work in daytime outings. Nathan Karns goes for the Mariners on Thursday, and while his numbers are decent, the fact is, he's saddled with a 1.45 WHIP on the road. Karns will face a Baltimore offense that ranks 9th or better in home team batting average, OBP, and OPS. And the O's are one of MLB's elite at the plate with runners in scoring position, while the Mariners have struggled in this key offensive category. Finally, Wilson is backed by MLB's stingiest bullpen ERA. The M's come into this one having dropped four of their last five games, while the Orioles are on a 22-7 run at home and 4-0 in Wilson's last four starts against teams with a winning record. We're backing the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday afternoon. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
NBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, May 19
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TORONTO (64 - 33) at CLEVELAND (66 - 25) - 5/19/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 176-220 ATS (-66.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 49-64 ATS (-21.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points since 1996.
TORONTO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 6-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Long Sheet
Thursday, May 19
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TORONTO (64 - 33) at CLEVELAND (66 - 25) - 5/19/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 176-220 ATS (-66.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 49-64 ATS (-21.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points since 1996.
TORONTO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 6-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NBA
Thursday, May 19
Trend Report
8:30 PM
TORONTO vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Thursday, May 19
Trend Report
8:30 PM
TORONTO vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
